Group 1 - The market primarily consists of stock players who do not engage in learning stock trading strategies, leading to mutual frustration among index players [1] - The performance of individual stocks is irrelevant to index players, as their profits are derived from index movements rather than specific stock performance [3][5] - The current index levels, particularly around 3000 points, do not warrant a pessimistic outlook, and the highest points for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks this year are expected to exceed current levels [3][5] Group 2 - The secondary market includes various investment vehicles beyond stocks, such as ETFs and convertible bonds, which have seen significant trading volumes [7] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations that financial and consumer sectors will drive index growth, similar to historical trends observed in 2020 [5] - Investors who do not understand certain investment strategies, such as ETFs or QDIIs, are encouraged to refrain from commenting on them [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade, particularly focusing on how Guangdong, China's leading economic and foreign trade province, is responding to these challenges by exploring new market opportunities and adjusting strategies in various industries, especially in seafood exports. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - U.S. tariffs have escalated global trade tensions, causing anxiety among American businesses and consumers, particularly in the seafood industry [1][2] - The American seafood processing industry is experiencing significant challenges due to rising costs from tariffs, leading to halted orders and increased prices for consumers [2][3] - The uncertainty in international trade is making it difficult for companies to plan long-term, affecting the supply chain and pricing of seafood products [3] Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Dachen Frozen Foods are adjusting their strategies by deepening cooperation with domestic e-commerce platforms to tap into local consumer demand [2][7] - Dachen Frozen Foods has shifted focus to domestic markets, with a significant partnership with a well-known e-commerce platform, which now accounts for 20% to 30% of its revenue [7][8] - Hengxing Group has also proactively transformed its business model to focus on domestic markets, developing a full supply chain from breeding to processing, and optimizing product offerings [4][6] Group 3: Market Diversification - Companies are actively seeking to reduce reliance on single markets by exploring new international markets, including Southeast Asia and the Middle East [10][11] - Guolian Aquatic Products is leveraging its established production lines to penetrate the domestic market, offering high-quality products at competitive prices [9] - The Guangdong seafood industry is recognized for its diverse product offerings and competitive processing costs, which positions it well for both domestic and international markets [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock indices, the current market focus has shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not introduce significantly unexpected policies, and fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand remains the main approach. In Q1 2025, China's general public - budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year, with the issuance progress of ordinary national bonds reaching 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with previously released GDP and PPI data. Attention should be paid to whether the year - on - year revenue growth rate in A - share listed companies' financial reports matches these data to verify the economic recovery in Q1. The US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long - term impact on the A - share market. In the future, China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the logic of central fiscal promotion of consumption more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be relatively dominant for a long time this year, and for technology themes, sub - sectors such as domestic substitution and high - capital expenditure can be focused on. The view on the stock index is "volatile" [1]. - For national bonds, on the day of the report, the 30 - year main contract of national bond futures rose 0.69%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.23%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 120 billion yuan. The money market was balanced, with the DR001 rate falling 5bp to 1.54% and the DR007 rate rising 3bp to 1.78%. The bond market in April first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk - aversion sentiment increased under the influence of tariffs, and the yields of national bonds of all maturities declined rapidly by about 15BP. After the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, and there is little need for an immediate interest - rate cut. Without an interest - rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue strengthening and will continue its current sideways and volatile trend. The view on national bonds is "volatile" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, IH was at 2,621.2, down 6.8 (-0.26%) from the previous day; IF was at 3,724.8, down 5.8 (-0.16%); IC was at 5,487.2, up 16.2 (0.30%); IM was at 5,773.6, up 44.6 (0.78%) [3]. - **Stock Indices**: On April 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,645.5, down 5.7 (-0.22%) from the previous day; the CSI 300 was at 3,775.1, down 6.5 (-0.17%); the CSI 500 was at 5,604.9, up 6.6 (0.12%); the CSI 1000 was at 5,903.4, up 26.3 (0.45%) [3]. - **National Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, TS was at 102.33, up 0.012 (0.01%) from the previous day; TF was at 106.07, up 0.155 (0.15%); T was at 109.12, up 0.28 (0.26%); TL was at 120.98, up 0.8 (0.67%) [3]. 3.2 Market News - On April 29, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized during an inspection in Shanghai that Shanghai should take on the historical mission of building an international science and technology innovation center, seize opportunities, serve national strategies, enhance the source function of scientific and technological innovation and the leading function of high - end industries, and accelerate the construction of a globally influential science and technology innovation high - ground [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. 3.3.2 National Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of national bond futures main contracts, national bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year national bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [12][14][16]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the middle rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, as well as the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [19][23][24].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market had a slight correction on April 29, 2025, with the Wind All A closing down 0.61% and a trading volume of 1.08 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored [1]. - For treasury bond futures, on April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On April 29, 2025, the A-share market had a slight correction. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, while the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 300 Indices fell 1.05%, 0.51%, and 0.14% respectively. The banking and infrastructure sectors strengthened, while the real estate, automobile, and consumer sectors weakened. The market's focus shifted from overseas to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in April did not announce significantly unexpected policies, still emphasizing fiscal measures to boost domestic demand. In Q1 2025, China's general public budget revenue decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 4.2%. The issuance progress of general treasury bonds reached 30%, significantly ahead of schedule. The cumulative year-on-year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size in March was 3.4%, consistent with China's Q1 GDP (5.4%) and PPI (-2.5% year-on-year). It's necessary to verify the recovery of Q1 economic data by comparing the year-on-year revenue growth of A-share listed companies with these figures. Overseas, the US tariff policy aims to reshape the global trade pattern through point-to-point negotiations, which may affect China's exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea and have a long-term impact on the A-share market. China's economic development will focus more on the domestic cycle, making the central government's consumption promotion policy more reasonable. Consumption and dividend themes may be dominant for a long time this year, and technology themes related to domestic substitution and high capital expenditure can be monitored. The overall view on the stock index futures market is that it will remain volatile [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On April 29, 2025, the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts of treasury bond futures rose 0.30%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively, while the 5-year main contract fell 0.06%. The central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 103 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the DR001 rate decreased by 1.96 basis points to 1.5888%, and the DR007 rate increased by 3.59 basis points to 1.7489%. In the exchange repurchase market, the GC001 rate increased by 21.50 basis points to 1.8950%, and the GC007 rate increased by 7 basis points to 1.8450%. In April, the bond market first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased due to tariff impacts, causing the yields of treasury bonds of all maturities to decline by about 15 basis points. After the risk aversion sentiment subsided, the bond market entered a sideways consolidation phase. In the short term, the market has fully priced in positive factors, and the economic and financial data have generally exceeded market expectations, so there is little need for an immediate interest rate cut. Without an interest rate cut, the bond market lacks the impetus to continue rising and will likely maintain a sideways volatile trend [3]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, on April 29, 2025, compared with April 25, 2025, the IH remained unchanged, the IF fell 0.23%, the IC fell 0.50%, and the IM fell 1.00%. For stock indices, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 0.09%, the SSE 300 Index fell 0.14%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.51%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.05%. For treasury bond futures, the TS rose 0.04%, the TF fell 0.02%, the T rose 0.06%, and the TL rose 0.35%. For treasury bond yields, the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields decreased by 0.01, 0.6, 0.9, and 1 basis points respectively [4]. Market News - On April 28, 2025, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Zhao Chenxin, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that China will introduce a series of measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high-quality development. These measures cover five aspects: supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment. The policies are targeted and operable, aiming to enhance the sense of gain of enterprises and the public, and will be introduced one by one as they mature [5]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of the IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as their respective basis trends, to help analyze the performance of stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates to assist in the analysis of the treasury bond futures market [14][16][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies to analyze the exchange rate market [23][24][25][27][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The competitive advantages in the paint industry are gradually becoming evident, and the company is expected to emerge as a leader in the existing housing market [8] - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit due to effective cost control and a reduction in impairment provisions [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from domestic demand policies and has a unique valuation potential within the building materials sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12,105 million RMB, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million RMB, an increase of 91.27% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 21.30 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion RMB, up 123.33% [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 802 million RMB, 1,001 million RMB, and 1,302 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.90, and 2.47 RMB [8] - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in net profit growth rates of 141.60% in 2025 and 30.07% in 2027 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading national paint enterprise, leveraging its unique competitive advantages and efficient channel strategy to navigate market volatility [8] - The company is anticipated to be among the first in the industry to experience a recovery in performance, benefiting from the cyclical nature of the market [8]

Market Overview - The US and China trade negotiations remain uncertain, impacting stock performance in Hong Kong and mainland China, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3,295.06 points[3] - The US Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in June, contributing to mixed performance in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising by 1.3%[3][9] - The dollar index remained stable, while G-10 currencies generally depreciated against the dollar, with the Japanese yen experiencing the largest decline[4][27] Economic Policies - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need to strengthen bottom-line thinking in response to external economic pressures, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and social conditions[6] - China is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds in Q2, with monetary policy potentially including rate cuts to support consumption and technology sectors[6] - The meeting indicated a shift towards supporting service consumption and optimizing real estate policies, particularly in stock housing acquisition and urban village redevelopment[6] Stock Market Performance - Major US indices showed varied performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.05% to 40,113.5 points, and the S&P 500 rising by 0.7% to 5,525.2 points[8] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Taiwan's stock market led gains with a 2.0% increase, followed by Japan and the Philippines with rises of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively[21] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.32% at 21,980 points, with notable movements in technology stocks like Baidu, which rose by 3.85%[11] Commodity and Fixed Income Markets - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with NYMEX crude oil rising by 0.4% to $63.02 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 1.5%[27] - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.24%, reflecting market expectations of a more dovish Fed[30] - New bond issuances performed strongly, with significant interest in local government bonds and corporate debt in the secondary market[30]

文 ｜ 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 白弘伟 任恒毅 卿施典 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 贸易战僵持阶段，资金风险偏好不高，政策预期明确叠加财报披露收官，当前市场更关注确定性高和可兑现的方向，建议紧扣 政策主线，在主题上参与广义内循环和新科技主题，包括地产基建、旅游、消费电子、机器人等。从外部环境上看，特朗普关 税政策依然有较大不确定性，贸易战处于僵持阶段，市场焦点仍集中于美联储政策路径与地缘政治风险。从内部看，政治局会 议强调以我为主和底线思维，国内持续推动内循环的稳楼市、促消费政策。从主题环境来看，综合流动性指标和市场风格特 征，市场或在低位内需板块及新科技主题持续轮动。从催化因素分析上看，重点关注国内对内循环的稳楼市/促消费刺激政策、 中美关税谈判进展、科技领域催化事件。结合市场环境、催化因素以及综合量化指标研判，建议关注地产基建、旅游、消费电 子、机器人主题。我们在报告中还梳理了1 0个标的构成的主题推荐组合供投资者参考。 ▍ A股大势：内循环为主，新概念科技主题轮动。 2 0 2 5年4月政治局会议指出，虽然一季度经济开局良好，但外部冲击影响加大，下行风险显著上升；需要"强化底线思维"，对 外部压力从最坏处 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the differing core objectives behind the policies of China and the United States, leading to inconsistent market volatility between the two countries [3][4][10] - The report identifies the underlying issue of capital erosion in the U.S. economy, which is driving economic output outflow, rather than merely focusing on trade deficits and manufacturing repatriation [4][14][34] - The analysis reveals that by the end of 2024, the U.S. net foreign liabilities are projected to reach approximately $26.23 trillion, accounting for about 89.88% of nominal GDP, marking a historical high since the Bretton Woods system [4][23][34] Group 2 - The report outlines the core goals and pathways of "Trump 2.0," indicating that reducing trade deficits will take precedence, with expectations of continued high-tier tariffs and policies to promote domestic manufacturing [5][34][35] - The 4.25 Politburo meeting highlights the importance of "bottom-line thinking" in response to external shocks, focusing on domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and exports to other countries as key strategies [6][39][43] - Investment strategies should focus on "self-controllable" technology and military industries, domestic consumption, and gold as a hedge against external uncertainties, with specific sectors identified for investment opportunities [6][44][43]