以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/ 北京大学国家发展研究院、中国经济研究中心教授 黄益平 既然增长下行压力长期存在，稳增长究竟需要什么样的政策组合？初步的 回答是，稳增长需要宏观经济、行业政策、改革政策三方面的政策相互配 合。不过需要注意的是，在不同时点，政策重点可能有所不同，当总体经 济相对平稳但某些产业正在下行时，行业政策和改革政策应该成为重点； 而当经济确实面临较大下行压力，特别是受到一些内外部冲击时，可能需 要更多考虑宏观政策来支持增长。 稳增长政策组合探讨 我先把时间维度拉长一些，分享对稳增长政策的思考，然后再对当前的政策应对提一点建议。 中国经济增长的下行压力在过去十几年间一直存在。我们最近分析了新世纪以来中国经济增长的数据， 发现一个非常有意思的现象：将每年年初全国人民代表大会确定的经济增长目标与当年实际实现的增长 数据放在一起比较来看，2012年以前，我国GDP增长目标大致在每年7%-8%，大部分年份的目标都是 8%；然而，最终实现的实际增长通常都在9%以上，大部分年份甚至超过10 ...

应对经济下行压力、实现稳增长，需要宏观经济政策、行业政策和改革政策三个方面的协同配合。其 中，宏观经济政策主要适用于短期逆周期调节，而不应长期依赖；行业政策要应对产业更新换代过程 中的结构性挑战，例如如何在稳定房地产等关键行业的同时培育新兴产业；改革政策应着力改善民营 企业经营环境和提高市场配置资源效率。 以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 美国加征关税带来的经济冲击可能超出预期，需对下阶段可能出现的下行风险做好心理准备，并采取 更有针对性的措施： 对受到直接冲击的企业和个人提供直接救助，帮助他们渡过困难；此外，农民 工市民化政策不仅有利于公平，也有利于扩大国内消费。 ——黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）成员、北京大学国家发展研究院院长 01 稳增长政策组合探讨 我先把时间维度拉长一些，分享对稳增长政策的思考，然后再对当前的政策应对提一点建议。 中国经济增长的下行压力在过去十几年间一直存在。我们最近分析了新世纪以来中国经济增长的数 据，发现一个非常有意思的现象：将每年年初全国人民代表大会确定的经济 ...

食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于58.0%及以上 较高景气区间。 张立群表示，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观经济政策，特别要显著加大政府公共产品投资力度，显著 扩大市场需求，增加企业订单；带动企业生产投资活跃，就业形势改善，居民收入增长加快。依靠政府 公共产品、公共服务投资力度显著加大，使企业投资和居民消费显著回暖，带动超大规模国内市场需求 持续回升，着力巩固增强经济回升向好的基础和动能。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青第一财经分析表示，4月制造业PMI下行背后的主要原因有两个：一是季 节性因素，每年3月都是制造业旺季，4月制造业景气度都会有季节性下行；二是外部经贸环境变化，对 美出口会有较大幅度下行，进而带动外需放缓。 从生产端来看，4月份制造业生产端较上月略有下降，生产指数为49.8%，较上月下降2.8个百分点。装 备制造业、高技术制造业、基础原材料行业和消费品制造业这四大行业以及大、中、小企业的生产指数 较上月都有一定的下降。 从需求端来看，新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点。新出口订单指数为44.7%，较上月下降 4.3个百分点。 价格方面，原材料 ...

采取更有针对性的措施。 增长下行压力下，稳增长究竟需要什么样的政策组合？初步的回答是，稳增长需要三方面的政策相互配 合。 一是宏观经济政策。所谓宏观经济政策就是通过货币政策和财政政策进行逆周期调节——经济过热时收 紧政策，经济低迷时放松政策。今天讨论稳增长，主要是指如何提振经济，因此货币宽松和财政宽松是 基本做法，这也是我们多年来一直在做的。 宏观经济政策主要适用于短期逆周期调节。"没有一个经济体是靠印钞票走出经济困难的"，这提醒我 们，当经济面临下行压力时，采取宏观经济政策进行应对是没有问题的，但如果连续两年三年甚至五年 十年一直依赖政策宽松，显然是不可持续的。 二是行业政策。我国面临经济下行压力，除了受到一些短期冲击（如美国金融危机）的影响外，还有一 个非常重要的现象：部分行业因为成本逐渐提高和市场环境变化而失去了竞争力，正在快速退出，与此 同时，我们需要新兴产业不断进入市场来支持经济增长。这种情况下，行业政策就显得尤为重要。 例如，我国"新三样"（电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品）发展很好，但体量还不够大，还不足以支撑下一 轮中国经济增长。同时，"新三样"产业非常集中。需要思考如何通过政策引导行业适当调整，尤 ...

周五，大家最关心的月底会议发布了会议纪要。 总结一句话，经济呈现向好趋势，社会信心持续提振。 大家最关心的三个方面的表述如下： 1、宏观经济政策方面：加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 表述和之前基调一致。但由于本周川普撞了南墙，这两天多次提到已经开始和我们洽谈，我方连续回应没有收到美方要洽谈的消息。 至少，表面上来看不像月初那般"强硬"。既然你川普不打算硬钢（伤敌八百，自损三千）到底，那工具箱里面的政策，可以先按下不表。 所以，大家期待的降息降准没那么快，更别提其他方面的刺激政策。 于是，周五A股冲高回落。 2、会议开始之前，房地产明显是有异动的，据说相关小作文不少。 会议针对房地产的内容是：加力实施城市更新活动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存量商 品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 注意，基调与之前发生了改变。巩固一词明确的表示出，认为房地产此时已经企稳，不需要再加大刺激，而是要继续保持"稳定"。 房地产板块直线跳水 3、针对内需消费方面的表述：大力发展服务消费，设立服务消费和仰赖再贷款，加大资金支 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of regional integration and sound policies in the Asia-Pacific region to address global uncertainties [1][2] - The IMF suggests three main recommendations for regional cooperation: maintaining an open global trade system, promoting regional integration, and ensuring prudent macroeconomic policies [1][2] - The IMF highlights that the current level of intra-regional trade integration in Asia is relatively low compared to other regions, indicating significant potential for growth through trade agreements and standardization [1] Group 2 - The IMF stresses that maintaining a sound macroeconomic policy framework is crucial for enhancing regional stability and is considered a "regional public good" [2] - Recent financial market volatility has had a relatively mild impact on Asia, reflecting improvements in the region's monetary policy framework [2] - The IMF's President pointed out that significant changes in trade policies have led to increased uncertainty, alongside tightening financial conditions and market volatility [2][3] Group 3 - The IMF's global policy agenda includes three priority items: resolving trade disputes, maintaining economic and financial stability, and promoting growth-oriented reforms to enhance productivity [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on April 25, 2025, including股指期货,国债期货, and multiple commodity futures [2]. - It also provides an analysis of the performance of these futures on April 24, 2025, and offers expectations for their performance in April 2025 [17][38][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on April 25, 2025. For example, IF2506 has resistance levels at 3748 and 3768 points and support levels at 3720 and 3705 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on April 25, 2025. T2506 has resistance at 108.89 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.63 and 108.57 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 119.7 and 120.1 yuan and support at 119.0 and 118.6 yuan [2]. - **Commodity Futures** - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2506) and silver (AG2506) are expected to have strong - side wide - range oscillations on April 25, 2025. Gold has resistance at 803.8 and 810.5 yuan/gram and support at 784.6 and 778.1 yuan/gram; silver will attack resistance levels at 8352 and 8380 yuan/kg and has support at 8247 and 8205 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2506), aluminum (AL2506) are expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, while alumina (AO2509) is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [3][4]. - **Black Metals**: Iron ore (I2509), glass (FG509), and soda ash (SA509) are expected to be in a weak - side oscillation, while coking coal (JM2509) is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [4][5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil (SC2506) and PTA (TA509) are expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, while fuel oil (FU2507) and PVC (V2509) are expected to be in a consolidation phase, and methanol (MA509) is expected to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Natural rubber (RU2509), soybean meal (M2509), and rapeseed meal (RM509) are expected to be in a weak - side oscillation on April 25, 2025 [7]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduces the number of items from 117 in 2022 to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions [8]. - The Chinese government clarifies that there are no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [9]. - China's central bank conducts a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on April 25, 2025, with a net injection of 5000 billion yuan [10]. - US tariff revenue in April surges by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars, setting a new monthly record [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Night trading of domestic commodity futures ends with mixed results. Energy and chemical products mostly decline, black metals generally fall, and agricultural products are mixed. Base metals mostly rise [12]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange adjust trading margins and price limits for some futures contracts starting from April 29, 2025 [13][14]. - Thailand's rice exports this year may be lower than the expected 7.5 million tons [14]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 24, 2025, major stock index futures contracts show different trends. For example, IF2506 rebounds weakly, IH2506 stops falling and rebounds slightly, IC2506's upward momentum weakens, and IM2506 faces increased downward pressure [17][18][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 24, 2025, treasury bond futures close lower across the board. The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 face slightly increased downward pressure [38][42]. - **Commodity Futures** - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2506) stops falling and rebounds slightly, and silver (AG2506) continues to rise on April 24, 2025 [43][49]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2506) faces increased downward pressure, aluminum (AL2506) rises slightly, and alumina (AO2509) rebounds slightly on April 24, 2025 [55][60][67]. - **Black Metals**: Iron ore (I2509) and glass (FG509) face increased downward pressure, while coking coal (JM2509) and soda ash (SA509) rebound slightly on April 24, 2025 [80][87][89]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil (SC2506) and fuel oil (FU2507) face significant downward pressure, while PTA (TA509) and PVC (V2509) face increased downward pressure on April 24, 2025 [91][95][96]. - **Agricultural Products**: Natural rubber (RU2509) rebounds weakly, soybean meal (M2509) stops falling and rebounds slightly, and rapeseed meal (RM509) continues to rebound on April 24, 2025 [104][107][109].

首先，贸易冲突的进展仍主导市场短期运行。上周贸易冲突虽然没有明显升级，但是当前高额的关 税，使得全球贸易面临重大挑战，投资者的关注重心逐渐转向其对实体经济的影响。当前国际环境下， 国内积极的宏观经济政策如何进一步推进，成为市场关注的焦点和投资线索。与此同时，国内一季度的 经济数据和上市公司的年报、季报正在进入密集披露期，投资者需要密切关注具体数据是否能够达到市 场的预期。此外，上周美国人工智能芯片的出口政策有进一步收紧的趋势，科技领域的竞争和突围势在 必行，国内科技行业的进展也将很大程度上影响市场的风险偏好。 上周，两市震荡分化，成交大幅萎缩。沪指延续了上周的反弹，总体呈现继续修复的特征。但深圳 市场表现偏弱，周一开盘几乎就是最高点，随后一路小幅回落。量能方面，上周未能延续上周的放量格 局，量能出现了明显萎缩。上周市场热点主要集中在银行地产等低估值行业以及大消费行业。投资风格 方面，大盘蓝筹明显强于中小盘和科技风格。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article forecasts that China's economy will face a dual contraction in supply and demand in 2025, with demand contraction expected to be greater than supply contraction, leading to overall economic performance remaining below potential levels [2][4][34]. Economic Review of 2024 - China's GDP growth for 2024 is projected at 5.0%, successfully meeting the annual target, but showing a decline from 2023 [5][4]. - The total GDP for 2024 is estimated at 13,490.84 billion RMB, with quarterly growth rates fluctuating throughout the year [5]. - Effective demand remains insufficient, significantly impacting GDP growth, with consumption and investment both showing signs of weakness [5][9]. Supply Side Analysis - Industrial output in 2024 is expected to grow by 5.8%, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy, with variations across different types of enterprises and regions [6][7]. - High-tech industries are identified as key growth points for future industrial development [7]. Demand Side Analysis - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, reflecting a decline in consumer spending compared to previous years [8]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to increase by 3.2%, but with a downward trend throughout the year, particularly in real estate, which is projected to decline by 10.6% [9][10]. Price Trends - The inflation rate is expected to remain low, with CPI growth at 0.2% and PPI at -2.2%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency [10][11]. Monetary and Financial Conditions - New RMB loans are projected to decrease significantly, with a total of 18.09 trillion RMB in new loans, reflecting a 20.46% decline from 2023 [12][13]. - M2 growth is expected at 7.3%, indicating a stable but low level of liquidity in the market [13]. Factors Influencing 2025 Economic Outlook - Population decline and aging are expected to exacerbate labor shortages and economic growth challenges [15]. - Weak market expectations and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in U.S.-China relations, are anticipated to hinder economic recovery [16][20][22]. Natural Economic Trends for 2025 - Consumption is expected to show a slight increase, driven by policy support and consumer demand for upgrades [23]. - Investment growth is projected to stabilize, influenced by prior policy effects and ongoing structural adjustments [25]. - Export and import totals are expected to rise, although geopolitical tensions may pose challenges [26]. Supply Side Trends - The potential growth rate is likely to decline due to demographic changes, technological restrictions, and fluctuating energy prices [27]. - Labor force participation is expected to decrease, further impacting economic output [28]. Summary of Economic Challenges - The economy is projected to face dual contractions in supply and demand, with GDP growth potentially declining compared to 2024 [34]. - Key risks include real estate market instability, local government debt issues, and international geopolitical tensions [35][36][40]. Policy Outlook for 2025 - The GDP growth target is set around 5.0%, with CPI growth aimed at approximately 3% [42][43]. - Employment pressures are expected to increase, with a target of over 12 million new urban jobs [44]. - A combination of demand and supply management policies will be implemented to stimulate economic growth [46].

刘伟等：2025年中国经济形势展望与政策预期 热点聚焦 内容摘要： 2024年中国GDP同比增长5.0%，经济运行"总体平稳、稳中有进"，顺利 完成年初制定的5%左右增速目标。展望2025年，全国人口减少、市场预期偏弱、支 柱产业调整、地缘政治风险、能源格局变动等国内外因素仍将影响中国经济发展。中 国经济自然走势将是供给、需求双收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，整体依然低于 潜在水平。房地产风险、地方债务风险、汇率及货币风险、贸易摩擦风险等将成为未 来中国经济发展的潜在风险点。鉴于此，2025年的政策目标仍需以需求端作为主要发 力点，同时，对供给端的稳定运行和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持，宏观调控 政策组合应该以需求、供给双扩张为主，以市场环境管理为辅。 全文字数 | 约13000字 2024年是实现"十四五"规划目标任务的关键一年，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领下， 沉着应变，综合施策，我国经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进。数据显示，2024年我国GDP同比增长 5.0%，顺利完成年初制定的增速目标。 展望2025年，中国宏观经济运行的自然走势将是供给、需求双 收缩的格局，且需求收缩大于供给，低于潜在水平 ...