Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the market remained cautious. Although a December rate cut has reached a consensus, the future rate - cut path and how the Fed replenishes market liquidity are the focus. With the LME inventory problem hard to solve, the market sentiment may keep copper prices high and even make them continue to strengthen, so a prudent and optimistic outlook is held [1]. - Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and ore supply increased. Alumina supply remained high, and inventory pressure continued to build. Affected by macro - sentiment and copper prices, aluminum followed the upward trend and hit a new high. The end - of - year demand did not decline significantly, and the seasonal pressure on aluminum ingot shipments in Xinjiang helped extend the destocking cycle. Currently, the upward strength of aluminum prices is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the raw - material support strengthened marginally, but the price upside was limited. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply was tight, but the output of ternary precursors decreased in December, and the finished - product side was under pressure. In the short term, nickel may still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial - policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's rate - policy stance and China's economic - policy orientation. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 164,550 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,410 tons to 398,720 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. The market is cautious before the Fed's meeting, but LME inventory issues may support high copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,574 yuan per ton, down 0.27%, and AL2601 closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, down 0.11%. AD2601 closed at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,809 yuan per ton, and the aluminum - ingot spot discount widened. After the end of environmental inspections, ore supply increased, and alumina supply remained high. Aluminum prices followed the upward trend but may face downward pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 228 tons to 253,344 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 264 tons to 34,500 tons. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the new - energy industry chain faced some pressure. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 710 yuan per ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 45 yuan per ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons, and the total domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,310 yuan per ton, and the 1 lead - ingot premium in East China increased by 5 yuan per ton. The price of lead concentrates at some locations increased by 100 yuan per ton. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 547 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased by 10 yuan per ton. The aluminum - alloy ADC12 price in South China increased by 200 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and the total SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 8,439 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 425 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,501 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.4% to 22,840 yuan per ton. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 0.36 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 2.9% to 318,380 yuan per ton. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540 per ton. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][18] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [47].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 9 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周一国债期货主力合约多数低开，早盘横向波动后有所回落，午后有一波快速拉升， 但很快回落，临近尾盘小幅回升，30 年期品种全天回落较多，其他品种维持震荡格 | | | | | 局，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.29%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 | | | | | 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 持平。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katsuyuki Kitamura, emphasized that there is no divergence between the government and the Bank of Japan regarding economic assessments, highlighting their collaboration towards achieving price targets and fiscal sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - Both the government and the Bank of Japan believe that the Japanese economy is "moderately recovering" [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to implement "appropriate monetary policy" to sustainably and stably achieve its price targets, reaffirming the independence of the central bank [1] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to coordinate with the ruling party on the review of subsidy projects and investment funds [1] - There is an intention to seek public opinion on "wasteful spending" issues by the end of the year [1] - Tax reform and budget preparation for next year will reflect the outcomes of government spending reviews conducted by an expert group [1]

作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%。从10-11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险 等政策陆续推出，2025年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍 预计经济增长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期 的重大项目，推动房地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 2 0 2 5年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来， 5000亿元新型政策性金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来 增量资金，同时还能一定程度补充地方财力，这些稳增长政策工具效应在逐步释放。 11月30日，中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院副院长刘晓光在"中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 市场情绪回暖，股指震荡修复 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-01 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PMI数据喜忧参半。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，供需小幅修复，出口指数显著上涨，供需缺口收 | | 经济和企 业盈利 | 偏空 | 窄至0.8pct。但非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值50.1%。 | | | | 促销费政策陆续推出。六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，《方案》提出，到2027年，消费品供给结构明 | | 宏观政策 | 中性偏多 | 显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, aiming for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% during this period, with specific targets of around 5% for 2026-2027 and 4.5-5% for 2028-2030, indicating a need for an expansionary and proactive policy stance [2][3][5]. Economic Growth Targets - Historical data shows that previous five-year plans often set GDP growth targets that were exceeded, with average growth rates of 9.8% and 11.3% during the "10th" and "11th" plans, respectively, while the "14th" plan aimed for a reasonable range [4]. - The potential GDP growth for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.8% and 4.9%, with a specific focus on achieving an average of 4.84% during this period [6]. Policy Recommendations - The central government is advised to increase leverage and implement more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, including maintaining a budget deficit rate around 4% and increasing special bond issuance [8]. - To stimulate consumption, policies should focus on direct financial support for residents, particularly in service sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, such as lowering mortgage rates [9]. Long-term Economic Goals - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a per capita GDP of over $20,000, necessitating an average annual growth rate of 4.17% during the "15th" and "16th" plans, which reflects a baseline target rather than an aspirational goal [7]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a higher growth rate of over 4.7% to stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence, thereby enhancing investment and consumption [7].

如果你是投资新手，面对美联储的议息会议、央行的公开市场操作，感觉自己像在听一门高深的量子物理学，那么恭喜你，你找对地方了。今天，我将用最 直白的方式，教你如何借助人工智能（AI）这把"降维打击"的利器，彻底摆脱宏观信息的焦虑，实现小白在股市的逆袭生存。 一、宏观经济："天书"与股市的残酷联系 首先，我们必须承认一个事实：宏观经济政策是股市的"地心引力"和"推土机"。 它的力量是系统性的、不可抗拒的。但对于小白来说，理解这些名词的复杂机制，确实是极大的门槛。 1. 核心概念速查（小白翻译版） | 经济名 | 机构 | 宏观作用(小白翻译) | 股市影响 (核心逻辑) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 词 | | | | | | 加息/ | 美联储/ | 加息: 借钱成本变高。 降息: 借 | 加息: 资金回流银行,市场流动性收 | | | 降息 | 各国央 | 钱成本变低。 | 下跌压力增大。降息:资金流入市场 | | | | 行 | | 松 → 股市上涨动力增强。 | | | 缩表/ | 美联储/ | 缩表: 央行卖出债券,回收现 | 缩表: 比加息更强力的"抽水机" ...