[Table_Title] 12 月债市，乍暖还寒 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ► 11 月债市，风浪再起 回顾 11 月债市，长端利率经历了短期筑底回升的过程。 10 年国债收益率起步于 1.80%，月末收于 1.84%，12 月初再 遇调整，高点达到1.87%。从市场定价内容来看，随着股市行 情进入上涨后的休整阶段，11 月风险偏好对于债市的扰动明 显减弱；经济的弱现实与低于预期的宽货币，令债市多空力量 均衡，陷入低波状态；最后则是基金销售新规迟迟未能落地， 其中的不确定性或成为机构避险的理由。 ►年末季节性下行，或在今年弱化 复盘过往五年的 12 月债市表现，长端利率多经历下行行 情，虽然背后的直接理由各不相同，但或许可以总结为四个共 同的底层逻辑，市场基于经济年末冲刺或年初开门红的"宽货 币"预期、交易盘的冲刺需求、配置盘的抢跑行为、央行年末 惯例的维稳倾向。规律能否重现，我们可以从以上四个变量 着手，进行预判。 2025 年 12 月债市面临的状况或是，央行鹰派态度下，机 构对于年末降息的一致预期或难凝聚；交易盘缺乏稳定负债， 年末进行业绩冲刺的能力及意愿 ...

Group 1 - In November, the bond market experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery process, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.80% and ending at 1.84%, reaching a high of 1.87% in early December [3][57] - The risk appetite for the bond market decreased significantly as the stock market entered a consolidation phase, leading to a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the bond market [3][57] - The uncertainty surrounding the delayed implementation of new fund sales regulations has become a reason for institutions to seek hedging [3][57] Group 2 - The seasonal downward trend in December may weaken this year, as past five years' data shows that long-term rates typically decline, driven by expectations of "loose monetary policy" and year-end performance needs [4][54] - The bond market in December 2025 may face challenges due to the central bank's hawkish stance, limited performance improvement from institutions, and ample supply in the primary market at the beginning of the next year [4][54][35] - The characteristics of year-end rate declines may weaken marginally, with the trend still needing to wait for adjustments and corrections [4][35] Group 3 - Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the fundamentals, as the market has formed new trading habits since 2025, where data that does not meet expectations may be selectively ignored [5][55] - Inflation changes could pose short-term risks to the bond market, with November CPI expected to rise to around 0.6% due to food prices and a low base effect [5][55][36] - The demand side showed signs of recovery in November, with state-owned and policy banks net buying only 55 million yuan in bills, significantly lower than the same period in 2023-2024 [5][55][39] Group 4 - The market may return to a high volatility state in mid to late December, where it is essential to avoid net value adjustments caused by fluctuating interest rates and seize potential profit opportunities from market volatility [6][41] - The current yield curve is relatively steep, suggesting ample room for flattening, and a barbell strategy may be a better response tool [6][41][56] - For defensive positions, stable valuation or high coupon yield options should be considered, while the 5-year government bonds offer good value after the institutional profit-taking in late November [6][56]

Group 1 - The report indicates a combination of "loose monetary policy + credit easing," with a low risk of tightening in the funding environment, which continues to support macroeconomic and asset performance [1][13][19] - In November, the A-share market is expected to stabilize as liquidity disturbances and risk appetite weaken, with major indices experiencing a general pullback [2][31] - The report highlights that the bond market remains resilient despite weak fundamentals, with a slight increase in credit bond indices and a decline in government bond yields [3][38] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of large-cap growth stocks in the current market environment, supported by China's manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth [19][20][21] - It suggests a quantitative asset allocation model for domestic assets, recommending 30% in stocks, 35% in bonds, 23.3% in crude oil, and 11.7% in gold under an aggressive allocation scenario [24][26] - The report notes a divergence in global central bank policies, with a trend towards easing but with varying degrees among different economies, impacting investment strategies [56][57]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading operations, injecting long-term liquidity into the banking system, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance to stabilize macroeconomic performance in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - In November 2025, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond trading, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to October [3]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a favorable overall operation of the bond market, allowing for the resumption of bond trading after a pause due to previous market imbalances [3][4]. - The central bank's liquidity tools included a net injection of 254 billion yuan through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) and 1,150 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, alongside a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan via Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Economic Indicators - The liquidity market remained relatively loose in October, with low fluctuations in repo rates, although there was a marginal increase in certificate of deposit rates [4]. - The overall net liquidity injection in November amounted to 650 billion yuan, slightly higher than in October, indicating a continued effort to support the economy [6]. - Economic indicators such as the GDP growth rate of 4.8% in Q3 and a PMI average of 49.85% for October-November suggest a slowdown in economic activity, reinforcing the need for supportive monetary policies [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC's bond buying amounts are critical indicators; larger purchases may boost expectations for a looser monetary policy, while smaller amounts could dampen market confidence [8]. - As the year-end approaches, there may be increased pressure on funding, although the current liquidity remains ample, with potential for a short-term spike in funding rates [8]. - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure from new fund sales regulations, with 10-year government bond yields likely fluctuating between 1.75% and 1.85% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading operations, injecting long-term liquidity into the banking system, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance to stabilize macroeconomic performance in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Trading - In November, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond trading, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to the previous month [1]. - The resumption of government bond trading follows a period of suspension due to imbalances in the bond market and accumulated market risks, indicating improved market conditions [1]. - Analysts suggest that the increased net injection in November reflects a relatively loose liquidity environment and aims to soothe market sentiment amid a slowing stock market [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Tools and Net Injection - In addition to government bonds, the PBOC's liquidity measures included a net injection of 254 billion yuan through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL), 1,150 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, and 1,000 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [2]. - The total net injection of long-term liquidity in November reached 6,500 billion yuan, slightly higher than in October, indicating a continued effort to maintain liquidity in the financial system [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The average PMI for October and November was 49.85%, significantly lower than the 50.43% average in Q3, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity [4]. - Looking ahead, analysts expect the PBOC to maintain a policy of ample liquidity, with potential year-end funding pressures that could lead to short-term fluctuations in funding rates [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading operations to inject long-term liquidity into the banking system, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic operations in Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - In November, the PBOC conducted a net injection of 50 billion yuan through government bond trading, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to the previous month [2]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a favorable overall operation of the bond market, allowing for the resumption of government bond trading after a pause due to previous market imbalances [2]. - The central bank's continuous bond trading operations indicate a commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy, which is expected to release signals for stable growth [2][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Injection Details - In addition to government bonds, the PBOC reported net injections of 254 billion yuan through the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL), 1,150 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools, and 1,000 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [3]. - The total net liquidity injection for November, including the aforementioned tools, reached 6,500 billion yuan, slightly higher than in October [4]. - The increase in net liquidity injections is seen as a response to the rising financing needs of government bonds and the upcoming maturity of interbank certificates of deposit [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.8%, while the average PMI for October and November was 49.85%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the previous quarter [5]. - Analysts suggest that the amount of bonds purchased by the central bank in November will be a critical observation point, as larger purchases may boost expectations for a looser monetary policy [5]. - Looking ahead, the PBOC is expected to maintain a policy of ample liquidity, although there may be year-end pressures on funding, which could lead to potential fluctuations in funding rates [6].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：政策博弈与靴子落地 12 月 2 日，股债再次双杀。股市下跌，多与情绪相关，连续修复行情过后，迎来常规波动；债市则在定价消 息面的几个利空。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.64%，全天成交额 1.61 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 1 日）缩量 2822 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.24%，恒生科技下跌 0.37%。南向资金净流入 41.1 亿港元，其中美团、小米集团 和阿里巴巴分别净流入 5.92 亿港元、3.80 亿港元和 3.57 亿港元，而腾讯控股净流出 3.81 亿港元。 市场交易清淡，整体处于观望状态。今日成交额再度缩量至 1.6 万亿元附近，处于 8 月以来的低位。事实上， 从 11 月 14 日以来，市场量价矛盾显著。一方面指数宽幅震荡，在大跌后持续修复；另一方面成交额却变化不 大，始终没有突破 2 万亿元，也未曾低于 1.5 万亿元。这体现出，美股大跌带来的悲观情绪并未快速蔓延，而接连 涌现的科技叙事也未能驱动增量资金持续入场。大部分资金希望等待更明确 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's interest rate curve widened to 43.95BP last week due to the stable funding situation and volatile market sentiment. Short - term interest rates remained resilient, while long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly. The market may experience a repair trend around key events in December. Although short - term fluctuations are inevitable, the expectation of "loose money" is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [3][90][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, and the outstanding scale reached 7.15 trillion yuan, approaching the historical peak [6]. - On the evening of November 26, Vanke announced that it would hold a creditor's meeting to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004", and the meeting will be held on December 10 [9]. - On November 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission drafted the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions. The announcement includes product definition, registration and operation management requirements, responsibilities of fund managers and professional institutions, and regulatory responsibilities [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funding Rate Trends - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total injection of 1.5118 trillion yuan and maturity of 1.676 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of - 164.2 billion yuan. The funding situation was generally loose at the beginning and middle of the week, but the funding stratification intensified on Friday. As of November 28, the R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 rates changed by 3.75BP, 2.70BP, - 1.76BP, and 2.60BP respectively compared to November 21 [11][13][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the CD issuance scale last week was 559.55 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 242.49 billion yuan. The issuance scale of urban commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of - 827 million yuan. The issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for 3 - month and 1 - year CDs changed to varying degrees compared to the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of CDs with a term of less than 3 months declined, while those with a term of more than 3 months increased [20][23][31]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - The supply of interest - rate bonds increased last week, mainly due to the growth of local government bond supply. The actual issuance of interest - rate bonds was 716.069 billion yuan, with a net financing of 490.648 billion yuan. From January to November, the financing of local government bonds and treasury bonds was approaching the end. The cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds and local government bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan and 7.12 trillion yuan respectively, showing an obvious increase compared to the average from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.24 trillion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The funding situation was relatively stable at the end of the month. Short - term interest rates were stable, while medium - and long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly during the week and slightly recovered on Friday. The spreads between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds were relatively stable. The term spread of 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds widened to 43.95BP, and the variety spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds also widened [46][53][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading was generally stable last week and declined on Friday due to approaching the end of the month. In terms of the cash bond market trading volume, state - owned banks significantly increased their net purchases of treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years and also increased their purchases of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds. Rural commercial banks sold treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years throughout the week but increased their purchases of other term and variety interest - rate bonds, especially 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. Insurance companies' willingness to hold treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years increased significantly. Securities firms and funds were the main sellers, with funds mainly selling treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years and 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. The leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market in October was about 118.77% [65][74][77]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.73% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 1.58%, the cement price index decreased by 0.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.38%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.09%, and the BDI index increased by 12.53%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.45%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.40%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 100.00% and increased by 1.02% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The market may experience a repair trend around the Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting in December. The "loose money" expectation is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [90][91][92].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 综合 PMI 跌破 50，货币待加力 11 月 30 日， 统计局发布 11 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.2%，前值 49.0%。非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 50.1%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，服务业 PMI 下跌，拖累综合 PMI 跌破 50%。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%， 这是自 2023 年初以来综合 PMI首度跌破荣枯线。拆分来看，服务业、制造业、建筑业生产或商务活动指数环比 分别为-0.7、+0.3、+0.5 个百分点，可见主要是服务业的拖累。10 月适逢国庆中秋假期，居民出行、购物、旅 游、文体娱乐以及住宿餐饮消费表现较好，11 月进入淡季，这些分项均出现不同程度回落。不过这种季节性， 往年并不特别明显。今年 11 月服务业商务活动分项的回落幅度（-0.7 个百分点），在最近 10 年中仅次于 2022 和 2023 年同期（分别是-1.9 和-0.8 个百分点），其他年份多为持平或小幅上升（平均+0.5 个百分点）。 第二，制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is continuing its accommodative monetary policy by conducting a 302.1 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4% and planning a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, indicating a focus on liquidity support amid economic pressures [1] Group 1: Monetary Operations - The PBOC announced a 302.1 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.4% [1] - An additional 1 trillion yuan MLF operation is scheduled for today [1] - A net withdrawal of 5.4 billion yuan is achieved due to the maturity of 407.5 billion yuan in reverse repos and 900 billion yuan in MLF [1] Group 2: Interest Rates - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) decreased by 0.4 basis points to 1.316%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 3 basis points to 1.447% [1] - The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to 1.4703% by the end of trading [1] - The 1-day government bond reverse repo rate (GC001) increased to 1.438% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Huaxi Securities reports that due to the pressure on the economic fundamentals observed in Q3, the PBOC is likely to maintain its accommodative stance and may increase short-term reverse repo funding to alleviate liquidity pressures [1] - It is anticipated that the overnight and 7-day funding costs may peak around 1.60% during the month-end period [1]