[Table_Title] PMI 回到去年 8 月 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 4 月 30 日，统计局发布 4 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.0%，预期 49.8%，前值 50.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.4%， 前值 50.8%。数据发布后， 10 年、30 年国债收益率短时下行 0.5bp 又被抹平，日内窄幅震荡。同时 A 股窄幅 波动，红利和周期品种行情承压，科技品种走强。 关注以下几个方面： 第一，受外部冲击影响，4 月 PMI 回落到去年 8 月附近。统计局称受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠 加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，接近去年 8 月的 49.1%。拆分来看，新订单 和生产分项是主要拖累，分别较前月下滑 2.6 和 2.8 个百分点，拖累制造业 PMI 下滑 0.8、0.7 个百分点。新出 口订单回落 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%，是 2023 年初以来最低值。从业人员、供应商配送时间和原材料库存较前月 变化较小，对制造业变动影响均不到 0.1 个百分点。参考去年 8 月 PMI公 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was strong last week, with short - end credit spreads compressing and secondary perpetual bond spreads slightly rising. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of long - end interest rates may remain unchanged. Although the implementation time of policy easing needs to wait, it is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. At present, the duration strategy is still relatively dominant, and the portfolio can maintain a medium - to - high duration. 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds also have allocation value [2][3][29] Summary by Directory I. The impact of the escalation of reciprocal tariffs on the fundamentals has not yet emerged, and further policy support is needed - Last week, the reciprocal tariffs between China and the United States continued to escalate, with the tariff rate increase reaching 125% on both sides, and the total US tariff rate on Chinese goods exceeding 145%. However, the US also announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs above 10% for other countries and exemption for some electronic products, which may ease the pressure on China's re - export trade [7] - Due to the trade shock and unstable policy expectations, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.5% and the US dollar index falling below 100. The US has not achieved its goals of reducing the trade deficit, promoting manufacturing reshoring, and cutting the fiscal deficit, and may take other measures in the future, so the global market may still face volatility [8] - China's economy has enhanced its resilience and preparedness for potential tariff risks. The 3 - month export growth of 12.3% was mainly affected by the Spring Festival shift. After adjusting for the seasonal factor, the actual export growth has weakened marginally, but the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged. However, after the escalation of bilateral tariffs, China's exports may be affected, and it is estimated that it may impact GDP by 1.5% - 2%, so domestic policies need to be strengthened [12][15][17] II. The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is gradually returning to normal, but reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait - The market's expectation of looser capital has increased, but historical experiences show that significant drops in capital interest rates below policy rates are usually preceded by signals such as continuous reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts by the central bank or a continuous increase in bank net lending. Currently, the central bank's open - market operations and bank net lending do not show such signals [18] - The "Financial Times" put forward three conditions for "choosing the right time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", and although these factors have emerged, their impacts are not yet prominent. The central bank is still weighing between stabilizing the bond market and reducing costs. It may lower the priority of stabilizing the bond market and advance the policy normalization, with DR007 likely to return to the 1.65% - 1.7% range, but further reduction may require the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait, but relevant information is likely to emerge around the Politburo meeting in April [20][21] - The loosening of the capital market last week was partly due to the large - scale net repayment of government bonds. However, this week, the net payment of government bonds will reach 797.8 billion yuan, the highest since mid - December last year. Although the probability of a significant tightening of funds is limited, the short - term capital market may not loosen significantly [22] - The March financial data was released on Sunday. The new social financing scale reached 5.89 trillion yuan, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.4%. The increase was mainly due to the rise in credit and government bond net financing. The new credit of residents and enterprises was affected by factors such as the expected increase in consumer loan interest rates and the convenience of platform working capital loans after the replacement of hidden debts. The subsequent use of replacement bonds may have a negative impact on credit, and more attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies under external shocks [25][27][28] III. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of interest rates remains unchanged - Although the implementation of tariffs and the degree of domestic policy hedging are uncertain, and the short - term bond market may fluctuate, the impact of tariff measures on the fundamentals has not been fully priced in the market, which is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. As export pressure gradually emerges, domestic policies are likely to be adjusted, and monetary easing is likely to be relatively early. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, long - term interest rates may not face significant risks and may hit new lows. At present, the duration strategy is dominant, and 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds have allocation value [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 2, Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners, with higher - tariff economies including China (34%), EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), India (26%), Japan (24%), etc., and also re - emphasized 25% auto tariffs and announced a 25% tariff on all imported beer, which increased capital market volatility [2] - On April 3, in the domestic bond market, the yields of various maturities declined, with the 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 down about 5bp, and the decline of ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] - After the "reciprocal tariffs" shock, the bond market is close to the pricing of unchanged short - term interest rate center + historical minimum term spread. The subsequent market decline needs to focus on the influx of risk - averse funds into the bond market and the opening of the broad - money window. The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to fluctuate in the range of 1.70% - 1.80%. Active bonds are more cost - effective during the bond - replacement period, and some secondary - active bonds may over - adjust due to temporary tightening of funds [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Impact of Tariff Announcement - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" announcement was a major surprise to the market, targeting multiple economies and increasing capital market volatility [2] 2. Bond Market Performance on April 3 - The domestic bond market priced in the tariff impact in the morning, with the yields of 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 dropping by about 5bp, and the decline pattern of different - maturity bonds was ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] 3. Three Perspectives on the Subsequent Bond Market 3.1. Tariff's Impact on Fundamental Expectations and Term Spread - Tariffs increase pessimistic expectations about the economic fundamentals. When there are such expectations, term spreads like 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y usually compress. Given the current short - term interest rate above 1.5% (1.54% on April 2) and the 10Y - 1Y term spread compressed to 25bp, the short - term interest rate is approaching the theoretical lower limit of 1.74% (calculated based on the historical minimum term spread of 20bp) [3] 3.2. Conditions for Further Decline in Short - term Interest Rates - A further decline in short - term interest rates depends on broad - money policies, but the window may not open immediately. The pressure to stabilize the economy has increased, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has risen again. However, stabilizing the exchange rate restricts broad - money policies in the short term, the space for broad - money policies is limited compared to 2018, and the probability of broad - money policies in May - June to cooperate with government bond issuance is higher, while the net financing pressure in April is relatively small [4] 3.3. Focus on Institutional Behavior when the 10 - year Treasury Bond Fluctuates between 1.70% - 1.80% - In the current bond - replacement market, 240011 may face upward pressure because the short - selling force of 240011 is still strong (as shown by the increase in bond lending volume after the quarter), and 250004 is about to replace 240011 as the active bond, so its interest rate may rise due to liquidity pricing [5][6] - The secondary - active bonds of 30Y Treasury bonds may also face upward pressure. Although the funds have loosened, the negative Carry phenomenon still exists. During the Q2 when there is a 30Y Treasury bond issuance plan, the secondary - active bonds may over - adjust after the seasonal tightening of funds [6]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 积蓄力量，等待下行 [Table_Summary] 3 月 10-14 日，资金趋稳的利好信号开始反映在短端定价，但债市情 绪脆弱依然驱动长端利率上行，且利率波幅明显放大。14 日尾盘 2 月金融 数据发布，信贷结构反映需求正在弱化，但业内人士文章随之出炉，关于 降准降息的表述，都透露出当下落地的概率不大，债市对于"宽货币"的预 期阶段性退坡。 ► 降准降息，虽迟但大概率会到 如何看待短期降准降息落空，对债市的影响？我们倾向于，从希望到 失望，短期悲观情绪已经在 14 日尾盘释放。接下来是重新集聚力量的过 程，等待越来越多的高频数据揭示经济基本面的趋势。从当前信贷和经济 的高频数据来看，大行仍在票据市场收票，出口运价下跌，建筑复工偏 慢，工业品价格疲软，种种信号多指向基本面仍在筑底过程，需要呵护。 如果 3 月下旬信贷和经济高频数据依然偏弱，则降准降息预期可能卷 土重来。不过当下我们更应该关注，在央行态度偏呵护的背景下，3 月税 期及跨季，资金面是否保持平稳。降准的本质是补充银行的负债端，增强 资 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]