一是结构上产需同步向好。 一季度，外需增速高于生产和内需。"抢出口"效应下以人民币计价的出口同比增 速达6.9%。内需提振政策效果延续，社零和投资分别增长4.6%、4.2%。其中，基建（11.5%）和制造业投资 （9.1%）保持高增，房地产投资（-9.9%）拖累减弱。生产端工业增加值增长6.5%，增速为2022年以来的次高 值。值得注意的是，供给强于需求的格局仍在继续，一季度产能利用率（74.1%）和产销率（94.6%）均略超 季节性回落。 图1：3月内外需求增速均有提升 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 图2：消费提振，投资分化 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 二是节奏上前稳后高。 3月多数经济数据增速较1-2月改善。生产加快修复，3月规模以上工业增加值同比增速 上行1.8pct至7.7%。需求端以基建投资好转最为显著，3月增速大幅提升2.6pct至12.6%。社零增速表现亮眼，3 月增速提升1.9cpt至5.9%，达到2020年以来的最高值【注释1】。制造业投资增速微升，房地产投资增速微 降。 图3：房地产销售降幅略有收窄，投资降幅再度扩张 一、总览：供需两旺 一季度我国经济开局良好，实际GDP同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of key economic data and events from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting trends in retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence, and inflation metrics, which are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities [5][6][11]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to be released this week includes the March preliminary PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, as well as various consumer confidence indices and housing data [2][3][4][12][13]. Group 2: Recent Economic Data and Events Review - In the US, the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate, aligning with market expectations, and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction [5][10]. - February retail sales in the US were below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.6% [5][10]. - Industrial production in the US exceeded expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [5][10]. - The US housing market showed resilience with February's existing home sales at an annualized rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing the expected 3.95 million [5][10]. - Eurozone's February CPI was slightly below expectations at 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI remained stable at 2.6% [6][11]. - Japan's CPI for February was higher than expected at 3.7% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [6][11]. Group 3: High-Frequency Data Review - The US economic activity index showed a slight decline, with the WEI index at 2.32% for the week of March 15, down from 2.59% the previous week [5][13]. - In Germany, the economic activity index improved, with the WAI index rising to 0.3% [5][13]. - Retail sales in the US showed a minor year-on-year decline, with the Redbook retail sales index at 5.2% [7][16]. - Global flight numbers decreased by 3.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in travel demand [7][19]. - The US mortgage rate remained stable at 6.67%, with a slight decline in mortgage application indices [7][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - Initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations at 223,000, indicating stable employment conditions [7][24]. - Global commodity prices increased, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index rising by 1% [7][27]. - US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.94 per gallon, reflecting minimal fluctuations in fuel costs [7][27]. Group 5: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone showed marginal easing, with indices rising to 0.301 and 1.381 respectively [7][29][31]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed signs of easing, with slight narrowing in swap points for the yen and euro against the dollar [7][32]. - Long-term bond yield spreads indicated a narrowing between US and Japanese bonds, while spreads between US and Eurozone bonds widened [7][35].

Global Economy and Inflation - Global economic activity is on the rise, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 791.6 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 17.60 points from the previous week [3][14] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 312.46 points during the same period, up by 4.23 points week-on-week, indicating rising inflation levels [3][18] Domestic Economy and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI for January 2025 is at 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [4][23] - The average price of pork in China was 28.24 yuan per kilogram as of February 6, 2025, a decrease of 0.06 yuan from the previous week, reflecting stable inflation [4][31] Industrial Production - The operating rate of high furnaces in China was 78% as of February 14, 2025, unchanged from the previous week, indicating stable industrial production [5][39] - The operating rate for rebar in major steel mills increased by 0.64 percentage points to 34.76% [5][40] Consumption - Essential goods consumption remains stable, with the Keqiao Textile Price Index at 104.07 points as of January 27, 2025, down 0.24 points from the previous week [6][52] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in China decreased to 24,400 units as of February 9, 2025, down by 40,700 units from the previous week, indicating a decline in discretionary spending [6][57] Investment - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities averaged 164,900 square meters per day as of February 16, 2025, an increase of 71,000 square meters from the previous week [7][61] - The operating rate of PTA in China was 82.33% as of February 13, 2025, up by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector [7][43] Exports - The export container freight index was 1,387.16 points as of February 14, 2025, down by 27.87 points, reflecting a slight decline in export activity [8][75] - The foreign trade cargo throughput at major Chinese ports was 18,710.3 million tons for the week ending February 9, 2025, an increase of 3.46 million tons from the previous week [8][76] Emerging Industries - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached an average of 5,114.15 points as of February 14, 2025, an increase of 95.19 points, indicating a rising sentiment in the semiconductor sector [9][78] - The production of integrated circuits in China for the year ending December 2024 was 45,142,296.5 million pieces, up 22.20% year-on-year, reflecting strong growth in the electronics sector [9][83]