Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated net income of $411 million and adjusted EBITDA of $566 million in Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $162 million and adjusted EBITDA of $584 million in the same quarter of 2024 [7][25][26] - The dollar lost value against most currencies, contributing positively to net income by $220 million [26] - The company expects EBITDA from the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment to increase due to strong demand and limited supply [12][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Phosphate production guidance for the third quarter is set at 1.8 million to 2 million tons, with annual guidance now at 6.9 million to 7.2 million tons [11][36] - Potash production guidance has been increased to 9.3 million to 9.5 million tons due to strong global demand [12][36] - The Biosciences segment's revenues more than doubled in the first half compared to the previous year, with expectations to contribute positively to adjusted EBITDA starting in Q4 [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global phosphate market remains tight, with strong demand and limited supply expected to continue into 2026 [9][21] - In North America, import supply of phosphate is down around 20% year-over-year due to tariffs, which is expected to keep domestic demand strong [20][71] - Brazilian demand for fertilizers is resilient despite higher prices, with expectations for record shipments this year [21][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving operating performance and enhancing reliability in its phosphate production business [5][6] - The new Pomeranci facility adds 1 million tons of distribution capacity, reinforcing the company's market presence in Brazil [13] - The company aims to achieve $250 million in cost reductions by 2026 through various operational efficiencies [35][89] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in a strong second half of 2025, driven by improved production volumes and favorable market conditions [6][36] - The company does not anticipate a price reset in the second half of the year, which has occurred in previous years [8] - Management highlighted the importance of market access as a competitive advantage, especially in the context of tight supply and strong demand [6][13] Other Important Information - The company is making progress on capital allocation, expecting stronger free cash flow in the second half of the year to pay down debt and return capital to shareholders [15] - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in its operations, with plans to extend these efforts further [35] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: Can you parse out the noise from what has actually changed from your Investor Day for better or worse? - Management acknowledged the market's negative reaction and clarified that while there were extraordinary expenses, the underlying performance remains strong [40][41] Question: What was your run rate roughly in July and how are we trending in August and September? - Management indicated that July's run rate was not as expected due to delays but expressed optimism for August and September based on encouraging numbers [48][53] Question: How do the $50 million idle and turnaround one-off costs in Q2 ramp down? - Management provided a general annualized cost range for phosphates but noted the variability in turnaround costs [56][60] Question: What has Mosaic done to harden the assets against potential weather disruptions? - The company has implemented various measures to prepare for hurricane season, including hardening assets and ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [64][66] Question: Can you talk about how tariffs have raised the costs of imports of phosphates into the United States? - Management explained that imports of phosphate face a 10% tariff, impacting the market dynamics and supporting domestic prices [70][71] Question: Can you elaborate on the government's reduction in support for farmer financing of input costs? - Management noted that while the first half of the market was strong, the summer season for soybeans is slower, which may impact demand [93][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should focus on compressing the profit position of styrene. Pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, while styrene supply is increasing and demand is decreasing. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly considered for short - selling. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation stage. The downstream operating rate of pure benzene is gradually recovering, and the industry is gradually entering the inventory replenishment stage. The short - term market still has support at 5600 - 5700. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and Styrene Market Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The planned maintenance loss in July was about 90,000 tons, which decreased to 40,000 tons in August, and the planned maintenance in September was 70,000 tons. New pure benzene plants will be put into operation intensively from July to September. [3] - Imported pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the US has stabilized and rebounded. The profit of STDP plants is negative, and the output rate is still decreasing. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The arbitrage window for styrene from the US to Europe has closed, and the incremental demand in August is expected to come from South America. [3] Demand - Styrene: There has been a large increase in supply recently. New plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical (680,000 tons, put into operation in early August) and Jilin Petrochemical (600,000 tons, put into operation on September 20) are about to be launched. [3] - Caprolactam: It was in a state of increasing load in July, and some plants plan to reduce the load after August. A new 300,000 - ton plant of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation in October. [3] - Phenol: Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton plant was put into operation in July, Jilin Petrochemical's plant will be put into operation in late August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. [3] - Aniline: Some plants such as Jinmao Aluminum and Chemical, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new plant has been put into operation and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. [3] - 3S hard plastics downstream of styrene: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - high and shows resilience. [3] Valuation - The reasonable valuation of pure benzene 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton. The current styrene futures price structure has turned to contango, and the largest structural opportunity this year is approaching the end. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies. - Inter - period: Temporarily take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage and reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage in the futures market. - Inter - commodity: Buy BZ03 and sell EB09, and take profit on the position of compressing profit temporarily. [3] 3.2 Pure Benzene Delivery Standards - The overall delivery settings are uniform. The benchmark delivery areas are Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Different regions have different premium and discount settings. [5] Production Capacity - The production capacity of pure benzene before 2005 was 3.26 million tons, accounting for 12%. [20] Market Situation in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the price continued to decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but it gradually entered the de - stocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [30] 3.3 Styrene Production Capacity - The production capacity of styrene before 2005 was 1.12 million tons, accounting for 5%. [21] Market Situation in 2025 - The global styrene output contracted in the first half of 2025. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high inventory, medium - level profit (recently compressed). [70][76] Future Outlook - Pay attention to the issue of the price ratio between aromatics and olefins. Styrene in the far - month should not have profit. [69][81] 3.4 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene Phenol - It is expected that the apparent demand for phenol in 2025 will be 6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [52] Caprolactam - It is expected that the apparent demand for caprolactam in 2025 will be about 7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [55] Adipic Acid - The annual apparent demand for adipic acid is about 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. [57] Aniline - It is expected that the apparent demand for aniline in 2025 will remain at 3.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. [61]

Core Insights - The main contract price for soda ash (SA2509) fluctuated between 1158 and 1457 CNY/ton in July, closing at 1247 CNY/ton with a weekly increase of 5.59% [1] - Soda ash production reached 3.1639 million tons in July, a month-on-month increase of 30,800 tons, representing a growth rate of 0.98% [1] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash companies was 81.95% in July, down by 1.91% from the previous month [1] - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers at the end of July was 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons, or 1.53% month-on-month [1] Market Trends - In August, the domestic soda ash market is expected to stabilize initially before weakening, with new price transactions slowing down and a forecast of stable to declining prices [1] - Supply of soda ash is expected to increase post-maintenance, leading to ample availability, while downstream demand remains weak with a focus on essential needs, resulting in decreased high-price transactions and weakened purchasing intentions [1] - The sentiment in the market has shifted from a strong rebound in July to a return to fundamentals, with traders advised to monitor inventory changes and downstream demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global methyl methacrylate (MMA) and acrylate market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak demand, increasing capacity, and cautious purchasing attitudes, limiting recovery potential into the second half of 2025 [1] European Market: Weak Demand and Oversupply - European MMA producers are facing ongoing challenges with weak demand and oversupply, with no significant improvement expected in the second half of the year [2] - The core driver of prices remains demand, and aside from potential restocking at the end of summer, there are few signs of market recovery [2] - European producers are concerned about the impact of new capacity from Rohm's Texas plant on exports to Europe, while U.S. sellers may increase exports to Europe due to weak domestic demand [2] - Downstream PMMA companies in Europe anticipate aggressive pricing strategies from Chinese and Korean producers aiming to capture larger market shares [2] European Acrylate Market Outlook - The European acrylate market, particularly butyl acrylate and 2-ethylhexyl acrylate, is expected to maintain a bearish outlook due to continued low demand from core customers [3] - Buyers are negotiating contracts to lower prices to align with current spot market levels, which may slightly boost spot demand but overall market activity remains low [3] U.S. Market: New Capacity Release - The U.S. MMA market is closely monitoring the market share changes following the commissioning of Rohm's new 250,000 tons/year plant in Texas [4] - Demand for MMA in the U.S. is slightly better than in other regions, but high prices are suppressing exports [4] - The overall consensus is that consumer spending is declining, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as high interest rates and unstable employment [4] Asian Market: Demand Challenges - The Asian MMA and PMMA markets are unlikely to see recovery in demand in the second half of 2025, following a period of weak demand and low pricing [5] - In India, demand remains low, particularly in the coatings sector, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach [5] - New domestic capacity in India, including a 150,000 tons/year butyl acrylate plant expected to start in July, is anticipated to keep profits under pressure [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The price of rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded, driven by the trend of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operating rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not high, so the market will maintain a range oscillation in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports [9]. - In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, rapeseed meal prices will return to the range oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate in the range of 2660 - 2720. The analysis from multiple aspects shows a neutral view, with some factors being bullish and others bearish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The future result is uncertain and may depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the reduction of rapeseed output in the EU and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The reduction of rapeseed output in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; the inventory pressure of oil mill rapeseed meal is not high [12]. - **Bearish factors**: Domestic rapeseed was listed in June; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2560, and the base difference is - 100, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year compared with 34,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [25]. - **Domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2014 - 2023, data on initial inventory, output, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [26]. - **Imported rapeseed**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. - **Oil mill inventory**: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills increased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory remained at a low level [29]. - **Oil mill processing volume**: The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills increased slightly [31]. - **Aquatic products**: The price of aquatic fish fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [39]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position has changed from short to long, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - Data on the trading average price, trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 18 - 29 are provided [14]. - Data on rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2509, far - month contract 2601) and spot prices from July 21 - 29 are provided [16]. - Data on rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from July 18 - 29 are provided [17].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in coking coal and coke futures prices this week is driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1] Supply Analysis - Coking coal futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,259 CNY/ton, up 35.9% week-on-week; coke futures (2509 contract) closed at 1,763 CNY/ton, up 16.1% week-on-week [1] - Daily average coke production from independent coking enterprises reached 519,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.61%, up 0.71% from the previous week [1] - The initiation of the fourth round of price increases for coke, along with strong demand from steel mills, has contributed to the rise in production and capacity utilization [1] Demand Analysis - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, and up 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points week-on-week, but up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The profitability of steel mills increased to 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points week-on-week and up 48.49% year-on-year [1] - Daily average molten iron production was 2.4223 million tons, down 2,100 tons week-on-week, but up 26,200 tons year-on-year, indicating sustained high production levels [1] Inventory Analysis - Coking coal inventory at the 247 surveyed steel mills increased to 6.3998 million tons, up 9,900 tons week-on-week; coking coal inventory reached 7.9951 million tons, up 84,100 tons [1] - Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, with total coking coal inventory at 9.8538 million tons, up 562,700 tons week-on-week [1] Market Sentiment - The macroeconomic sentiment reflects a "de-involution" trend, with optimistic expectations regarding policies, leading to price increases [1] - The tight supply of coking coal and strong demand for coke, along with the initiation of the fourth round of price increases by coking enterprises, have contributed to positive market sentiment [1] - The market has seen increased activity due to prior valuation adjustments and speculative demand driven by price rebounds [1] Future Considerations - Future attention should be paid to macroeconomic policies, molten iron production, coal mine resumption, and the increase in imported Mongolian coal supply [1] - The strategy for coking coal and coke is expected to be volatile, with no current operations in cross-commodity, spot, or options trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of PVC in China has increased compared to the previous week, indicating potential changes in supply and demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 1 - The price of PVC in China has shown a week-on-week increase, suggesting a shift in market conditions [1] - There is a possibility that outdated production capacity may face elimination, which could impact future supply [1] - Market expectations are focused on how supply and demand will evolve in the near future [1]

2025 年 07 月 23 日 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强 MEG：单边趋势偏强，月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com PX：尾盘石脑油价格继续走弱，8 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 569 美元/吨 CFR。今天 PX 价格偏强维持，尾 盘实货 9 月在 843/848 商谈，10 月在 834/841 商谈，9/10 换月在平水有买盘，均无成交。今日 PX 估价在 843 美元/吨，较昨日上涨 1 美元。 据市场参与者称，7 月 22 日亚洲 PX 现货市场的交易活动清淡，卖家和买家基本上保持观望。 关于中国推动逐步淘汰老化石化产能的讨论打压了市场情绪，市场参与者正在评估 PX 供应的潜在减 少是否会被下游需求下降所抵消，甚至超过。 "如果淘汰老化的 PTA 和聚酯工厂，[对 PX] 的需求可能会减少，"一位中国生产商说，并指出这可能意 味着对 PX 的需求降低。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in pig prices indicate a complex market situation, with a brief recovery followed by a significant decline, suggesting challenges ahead for price stability and growth potential. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, pig prices unexpectedly rose, reaching a peak of 15.5 yuan/kg, but subsequently fell for half a month, dropping below 14 yuan/kg, indicating a decline of over 1 yuan/kg overall [2][4]. - Despite a recent slight rebound in pig prices, the overall outlook for significant price increases remains bleak, as the market dynamics are shifting [4][7]. Group 2: Market Support Factors - A key support factor for the recent price increase is the reduction in the inventory of medium and large pigs, with a 0.8% decrease in June, leading to less market pressure [4][6]. - Rising feed costs, driven by increasing corn prices, have led to higher breeding costs, causing farmers to reduce the number of pigs they sell when prices drop to around 14 yuan/kg [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The pig market is facing structural changes due to large enterprises continuously expanding production and the impact of secondary fattening practices disrupting the market rhythm [8]. - Official directives to halt production expansion and reduce sales of secondary fattened pigs have altered market dynamics, diminishing the potential for price increases [8][9]. - Data indicates that the pressure for pig sales will remain high in the second half of the year, with an expected peak in piglet output and feed production [11].