1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - As the traditional peak season nears its end, the industry's terminal demand support is expected to weaken further. Future market price increases will rely more on policies and the macro - level. It is necessary to continue to monitor the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy fronts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel and Related Products 3.1.1 Steel - Core logic: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations persists, cost - side support is loosening, and the futures market is weak. Spot market transactions are generally weak, with low speculative interest. Iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, electric - furnace profits are poor, and steel mills are conducting some maintenance and production conversions. After the National Day holiday, demand recovery is limited. With high supply, the inventory of five major steel products has increased significantly, and the fundamentals are weak [6]. - Outlook: Steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals are lackluster. Considering increased overseas risks, short - term futures prices are expected to face pressure. However, due to potential positive signals from the end - of - October meeting and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in costs under high iron - water production, the downside space is limited [6]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Spot market prices have fallen significantly. Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased significantly. The demand - side iron - water production is still at a high level, and some steel mills plan to replenish inventory after the holiday. Port inventory has increased, and overall inventory pressure is not prominent [6]. - Outlook: There is still support for the rigid demand for iron ore, short - term supply is generally stable, and fundamental pressure is not significant. However, macro - level disturbances and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations limit the upside space, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered this week, approaching the same - period level in previous years. Demand has decreased as finished - product prices are under pressure and electric - furnace profits are poor. Inventory has decreased slightly during the holiday [8]. - Outlook: With insufficient fundamental drivers, scrap - steel prices are expected to follow finished - product prices in the short term [8]. 3.2 Carbon - Related Products 3.2.1 Coke - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. On the spot side, supply is temporarily stable, demand is supported by iron - water production, and overall inventory is at a low level. The price of coke is in a stalemate between rising and falling due to the game between coking plants and steel mills [9]. - Outlook: With rigid demand support, limited supply growth, and a healthy short - term fundamental situation, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the future [9]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. Supply is generally stable, but imports are affected by some factors. Demand is supported by coke production, and inventory is at a low level. Spot prices are oscillating steadily [10]. - Outlook: After coal mines return to pre - holiday production levels, there is limited room for output growth. Import recovery will take time, and with high short - term coke production, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Considering the warm macro - environment, prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.3 Other Products 3.3.1 Glass - Core logic: With the approaching of important domestic meetings, the supply side has limited changes. Demand is in the peak season, but due to large intermediate - level inventory and limited restocking ability, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The upstream is facing pressure to increase inventory and reduce prices [11]. - Outlook: After the National Day holiday, production and sales are poor, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to decline [11]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - Core logic: Supply is still high, and demand is stable with some differences between heavy and light soda ash. The industry is in a bottom - clearing stage, and upstream inventory is expected to increase. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. Prices are expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [13]. 3.3.3 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand peak season is lackluster, and the manganese - silicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and the market is waiting and watching. Cost - side prices have slightly declined, demand is resilient, but supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing [14]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations, the price center may decline after the peak season [14]. 3.3.4 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand in the peak season is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and market confidence is low. Supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing. Demand from steel mills is resilient, but the metal - magnesium market is oversupplied [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, prices may decline after the peak season [15].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, on October 14, the price of the main futures SA601 contract continued to decline. The supply is high with inventory decreasing, but the overall weak pattern remains unchanged. With stable supply and downstream purchasing at low prices, the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The market's oversupply situation has not improved effectively. Without substantial positive factors, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - For glass, after the festival, the overall situation is a loose supply and weak demand, with increased inventory pressure suppressing the rebound of the futures price. The current futures price is mainly driven by fundamentals and remains at a low level. One should not short too aggressively and needs to continuously monitor macro - policies and production line changes [9]. Summary by Directory I. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On October 14, the closing price of the SA601 contract was 1,234 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.72% and a daily increase in positions of 5,914 lots. The SA605 contract closed at 1,321 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.90% and an increase in positions of 4,208 lots [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamentals**: Weekly production slightly decreased by 0.66 million tons to 77.08 million tons, a 0.85% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level. The total shipment volume in late September was 88.10 million tons, a 11.86% month - on - month increase. The factory inventory dropped to 165.15 million tons [8]. - **Glass Futures Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1,138 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.39% and an increase in positions of 122,933 lots. The FG603 contract closed at 1,212 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.57% and an increase in positions of 4,968 lots [7]. - **Glass Fundamentals**: The production of float glass is stable with the arrival of the peak season, and the photovoltaic glass is in a weak - balanced state. After the festival, the supply is loose, demand is weak, and inventory pressure has increased [9]. II. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass, including the price trends of active contracts, weekly production, enterprise inventory, market prices of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariff expectations, the prices of most black building materials varieties fluctuated weakly during the day. The panic in the market was relatively limited due to the uncertainty of tariff increases and the weaker intensity compared to April. The prices continued to fluctuate weakly at night. In mid - October, the terminal demand of the industry remained poor, and the reduction of hot metal production limited the support for prices. In the fourth quarter, the influence of macro and policy factors increased, and attention should be paid to the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy levels [1] - The current fundamental situation can hardly provide clear upward support for the prices of the sector's varieties. The tariff issue drags down the market sentiment and slightly affects the price performance of the sector. However, there are still expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and positive signals from domestic important meetings [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Analysis - **Iron Element**: Iron ore demand is supported at a high level, supply is expected to be stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has insufficient fundamental drivers and is expected to follow the price of finished products [2] - **Carbon Element**: Coke has rigid demand support from hot metal, and its price is expected to remain stable. Coking coal's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and its price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Alloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported in the short term but have downward pressure after the peak season [2] - **Others**: Glass may have a rebound space if post - holiday production and sales are good; otherwise, the price may be under pressure. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus pattern and is expected to oscillate widely [2][5] 2. Individual Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory is at a moderately high level, the fundamentals are weak, and the overseas risks are increasing. The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited upside space [7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental drivers are insufficient, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [9] - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable [10] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Glass**: If the post - holiday production and sales are good, there is a rebound space; otherwise, the price may decline. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction [11][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [16] 3. Other Data - **Commodity Index**: On October 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index changed by +0.01%, +0.17%, and - 0.64% respectively [100] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On October 13, 2025, the steel industry chain index had a daily decline of - 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of +0.07%, a 1 - month decline of - 0.83%, and a decline of - 5.54% since the beginning of the year [102]

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the fundamentals of asphalt have little change, and its price is mainly driven by crude oil. Affected by the decline in international oil prices during the holiday, asphalt prices fluctuated weakly this week. With limited improvement in asphalt demand, the fundamentals provide limited support for the market. As downstream demand enters the off - season and there are high production plans, the weakening fundamentals may suppress prices. Crude oil continues to oscillate widely due to geopolitical and fundamental factors, but as the peak demand season ends, the expectation of supply surplus strengthens, and the cost - side support for asphalt weakens. Overall, asphalt lacks upward momentum in the short term and is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. It is recommended to focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [8][58]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza cease - fire agreement; OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November; there are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year [7]. - **Key Data**: As of September 24, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week; the social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [9]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainty and high refinery production [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ production increase [12]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Russia and Saudi Arabia have a quota of 41,000 barrels per day, Iraq 18,000 barrels per day, UAE 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait 10,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan 7,000 barrels per day, Oman and Algeria 4,000 barrels per day each. This shows OPEC+'s determination to compete for market share through production increase, which will increase supply - side pressure and suppress prices [14][16]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: A Gaza cease - fire agreement is expected to be reached, but its implementation may be repeated. The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains highly uncertain, and attacks on energy infrastructure may disrupt crude oil supply and support oil prices [17]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of October 10, the weekly asphalt production was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The production of state - owned refineries was basically flat, while that of local refineries decreased. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises as of September 24 was 40.1%, up 5.7 percentage points from the previous period, with significant increases in East China and Shandong. As state - owned refineries enter seasonal maintenance, the operating rate may decline [18][28]. - **Demand**: As of September 26, the weekly asphalt shipment was 496,000 tons, an increase of 41,000 tons from the previous week. However, as demand enters the off - season, shipments may decline. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt as of September 26 was 18.94%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week. It is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, with limited long - term growth potential [29][32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 690,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons from last week, mainly in North China and Shandong. The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down during the National Day holiday [42][49]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 554.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 185 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio as of September 30 was 54.85. The crack spread and basis are expected to remain stable [56]. 3.5后市研判 - In the short term, asphalt lacks upward momentum, and crude oil will continue to dominate the market. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. Focus on the BU2511 contract in the range of 3260 - 3400 yuan/ton and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [58].

Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports that the global refined copper market will experience a surplus of approximately 178,000 tons in 2025, followed by a shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [1] - Global copper mine production is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.3% in 2026, while refined copper consumption is projected to increase by 3% in 2025 but decline to 2.1% in 2026 [1] - Refined copper production is forecasted to grow by 3.4% in 2025, with a significant slowdown to 0.9% in 2026 according to ICSG predictions [1] Group 2 - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) anticipates a global nickel market surplus of 209,000 tons in 2025, which will further expand to 261,000 tons in 2026 [1] - Global nickel consumption is projected to reach 3.6 million tons in 2025 and increase to 3.82 million tons in 2026 [1] - INSG expects global nickel production to rise from 3.81 million tons in 2025 to 4.09 million tons in 2026, with stainless steel production continuing to grow during this period [1]

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and failed to continue the upward trend. The domestic spot copper imports were in a loss state. The US economic data showed resilience and inflation persistence. The labor - market slowdown concerns were alleviated. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,564 tons to 291,260 tons, and the domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.01 million tons. The Freeport McMoRan Indonesia Grasberg mine accident will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. Although investors were cautious due to the cryptocurrency fluctuations and domestic holiday uncertainties, the supply reduction in Q4 will strongly support copper prices, and the quarterly average price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to Comex - LME copper and internal - external price spreads [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated weakly with AO2601 closing at 2919 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decline.沪铝 (AL2510) fluctuated strongly, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot remained at par. The domestic bauxite mines have not resumed production, and the ore inventory is declining. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not reached the actual de - stocking inflection point. With the approaching of the double festivals, the downstream is in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years, and the downstream purchasing willingness has declined, which restricts the upward momentum of aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to $15,240/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.86% to 121,680 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory remained at 230,586 tons, and the domestic SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons to 25,105 tons. The stainless - steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the national mainstream market stainless - steel 89 - warehouse social inventory at 984,500 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. The cost of ferronickel has strengthened, but the supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, the ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but the cobalt policy may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The nickel price may rise slightly at the bottom, but inventory is a resistance to the price increase [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 82,465 yuan/ton, up 2,460 yuan from the previous day. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, the上期所 (SHFE) copper warrants increased by 243 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons. The domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Aluminum - On September 25, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai price was 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, the SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 3,328 tons, and the total SHFE inventory decreased by 765 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 63.8 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - On September 25, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan from the previous day. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2,334 tons. The nickel social inventory increased by 429 tons [4]. Zinc - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of zinc was 21,965 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. The LME zinc price remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.92 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of tin was 273,150 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10]. 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - There are charts showing the spread between the first - and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. 3.3 LME Inventory - There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.4 SHFE Inventory - There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. 3.5 Social Inventory - There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.6 Smelting Profit - There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, etc., with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on aluminum - silicon research. Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. Steel prices may face pressure before the holiday and could decline after the holiday, but there is a possibility of an increase if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and other factors will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is advised regarding the upside potential [8][10]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, and market expectations are fluctuating [11][13]. - The ferroalloy market is driven by overall commodity sentiment and cost in the short term, but the upside is limited by high supply [14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Related Information**: The US will impose new high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, and Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners. Shanghai's rebar price is 3290 yuan (+10), and Beijing's is 3190 yuan; Shanghai's hot - rolled coil price is 3400 yuan, and Tianjin's is 3330 yuan [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend at night. Construction steel sales on the 25th were 10820 tons. Five major steel products increased in production overall, with a decrease in hot - rolled coils. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils weakened, while that for rebar continued to recover. Steel inventories have reached an inflection point and are starting to decline. However, there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday, and there may be a risk of decline after the holiday, but there is also a chance of price increase if demand recovers beyond expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; for the arbitrage strategy, continue to hold the long 1 - 5 spread and the short hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a 1.8% increase. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased, and the inventory decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased. The prices of coke and coking coal warehouse receipts are provided [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market has digested the pre - holiday raw material replenishment logic. The spot market for coking coal is rising, and coke enterprises are proposing a price increase. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can provide some supply. The demand for steel restricts the upside of raw material prices [8][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is a wide - range volatile market in the short term, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, try to enter the long coking coal 1 - 5 spread at low prices; for the options and spot - futures strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Q2 GDP final value increased by 3.8% annually, and the US will impose a 25% tariff on imported heavy - duty trucks from October 1. The real - estate bond financing in August decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port are provided [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price dropped slightly at night. The mainstream mines improved in the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas demand remained high. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [11][13]. - **Trading Strategies**: No specific trading strategies are clearly provided in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: The November 2025 quotes of overseas manganese mines to China increased. On the 25th, the silicon - iron spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon and manganese - ore spot prices were slightly weak [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is high, and the short - term negative feedback risk has eased. For manganese - silicon, the supply is high, and the demand is stable. The cost of manganese - ore is rising, but the upside is limited by high supply [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, it is strong in the short term but limited by high supply; for the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see; for the options strategy, sell the straddle option combination [15][18].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Grade A office market is experiencing a slight decrease in vacancy rates and continued downward pressure on rents due to the interplay of new supply and demand changes, with professional services, finance, and TMT sectors being the main demand drivers [1][2] Market Supply and Demand - In Q3 2025, four new Grade A office projects were delivered in Shanghai, adding 222,400 square meters of quality office space to the market [1] - The net absorption recorded in the quarter was 89,000 square meters, representing a 3.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices decreased slightly to 23.5% [1] - Average transaction rents fell by 3.6%, with the average monthly rent at 205 RMB per square meter [1] Year-on-Year Trends - Year-on-year, the vacancy rate has decreased, but the total stock has increased, while rents continue to decline [1] - The market is expected to see three more projects completed in Q4, adding a total of 260,000 square meters of supply, which would push the total stock of Grade A offices in Shanghai to over 18 million square meters [2] Sector Performance - The professional services sector accounted for 26.7% of leasing demand, with incubators and co-working spaces favoring areas like Xuhui Riverside and Yangpu [2] - The finance sector, primarily consisting of securities, investment, and fund companies, represented 20.8% of leasing demand [2] - The TMT sector accounted for 14.9% of demand, driven by strong needs from data, AI, and high-tech companies [2] - Other sectors such as retail trade, cultural entertainment, and accommodation and dining also contributed to leasing demand, with respective shares of 8.2%, 5.9%, and 5.0% [2] - Sectors like construction and real estate, transportation logistics, and healthcare had relatively low demand, each below 5% [2] Supply and Demand Trends - From 2020 to Q3 2025, the Shanghai Grade A office market has shown fluctuating trends in new supply and net absorption, with 2023 witnessing the highest discrepancy between the two [2] - The supply pressure continues to impact the market, despite a return to relatively stable levels of new supply and net absorption in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Futures prices of polyolefins opened higher, fluctuated, and rose slightly. Some traders tentatively raised their quotes, but spot prices showed mixed trends. Downstream buyers purchased raw materials based on orders, and the market's inventory digestion speed was average. Despite increased demand for packaging around the Double Festivals, market confidence was insufficient for large - scale restocking, resulting in limited demand - driven growth and a weak, low - level oscillating market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7142 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.48%), with a trading volume of 190,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 17,901 lots to 571,775 lots. - **PP Futures**: PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.39%), with a decrease in positions by 15,873 lots to 636,500 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons (5.97%) from the previous working day, compared to 735,000 tons in the same period last year. - **PE Market**: PE market prices showed mixed trends. In North China, LLDPE prices ranged from 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton; in East China, from 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton; and in South China, from 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Market supply was on the rise, producers were willing to offer discounts, and downstream factories purchased at lower prices, with better low - end transactions. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. Downstream factories had limited new orders, and their pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm was low. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, and two - oil inventory and its year - on - year change, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][11][12].