Summary of the Conference Call on Convertible Bond Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the convertible bond market in China, particularly the performance and outlook for 2026, influenced by macroeconomic factors and policy changes [1][3][8]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance and Characteristics - The convertible bond market showed strong performance in 2025, with a cumulative increase of approximately 16.5% by the end of November [3]. - High-rated large-cap convertible bonds saw a rapid decline in scale due to tightened refinancing policies since 2024, particularly affecting bank convertible bonds [3][6]. - The rapid increase in ETF scale, reaching 620.682 billion, accounted for 12.5% of the convertible bond market, growing over 50% since the beginning of the year [1][5]. - The valuation of convertible bonds is increasingly aligned with the stock market, indicating a shift towards equity-like characteristics [1][3]. Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply pressure in the convertible bond market is expected to persist into 2026, with a significant reduction in issuance anticipated due to strong redemption and delisting pressures [1][6][10]. - Despite the anticipated supply challenges, there is a strong willingness among major shareholders to issue new bonds due to lower financing costs [6][10]. - The demand for fixed-income products is expected to support valuations, preventing significant declines despite the shrinking supply [7][10]. Economic Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by expectations of economic recovery, structural adjustments, and policy reforms [8][9]. - Low-risk interest rates are likely to encourage a shift of savings and long-term capital into the equity market, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets [9]. Investment Strategies for 2026 - Investment strategies should focus on two main opportunities: low-priced convertible bonds as a stabilizing asset and flexible equity-linked convertible bonds [11][14]. - Specific sectors to watch include technology growth (AI, humanoid robots), green energy (energy storage, hydrogen), and defensive positions in banking and public utilities [3][18]. - The strategy should involve active selection of bonds that are less likely to trigger strong redemption and those with a solid underlying stock logic [12][20]. Risks and Considerations - The potential for strong redemption events remains high, necessitating caution with high-priced and high-premium bonds that may trigger such actions [12][20]. - The shrinking scale of the convertible bond market may lead to capital inflows into the stock market, which could compress time value [2][10]. Conclusion - The convertible bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain high valuations supported by favorable policies and low-interest rates, despite challenges in supply and potential strong redemption pressures [10][14]. - A balanced approach with a focus on both defensive and flexible investment strategies will be crucial for navigating the market dynamics in the coming year [11][14].

Group 1 - Public fund net subscriptions for equity funds reached 2.1 billion yuan in November, with total net subscriptions exceeding 4.5 billion yuan for the year, more than double the amount from the same period last year [1][3] - Fund managers are increasingly purchasing their own funds, demonstrating confidence in the market and aligning their interests with investors [1][2] - The trend of self-purchase by fund companies is rising, with significant amounts being invested in newly launched equity funds, indicating a strategic move to enhance brand exposure and attract external investments [2][3] Group 2 - Three factors contributing to the increase in self-purchase include regulatory changes, strong market performance, and industry dynamics [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's new guidelines have encouraged self-purchase behavior among public funds, making it a more normalized practice [3] - The performance of equity funds has been strong, with stock fund indices rising over 25% this year, further motivating fund managers to invest in their own products [3][4]

Group 1 - The net asset value of public funds in China has increased from 33.12 trillion yuan at the end of April to 36.96 trillion yuan by the end of October, setting a new historical record [1] - As of the end of October, there are 165 public fund management institutions in China, including 150 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - Open-end funds account for 90% of the total public fund scale, with significant growth in money market funds and QDII funds, while equity funds and mixed funds have seen a decline [2] Group 2 - The scale of money market funds increased by 3.86 trillion yuan and the number of shares increased by 3.85 trillion shares compared to the end of September [2] - Despite a decrease in the scale of equity funds in October, they remain a focus for public fund institutions, with 64 new funds launched in this category during the month [2] - Bond funds experienced a more significant contraction in October, with a decrease of 1.04 trillion yuan in scale and 1.34 trillion shares compared to the end of September [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [52] Core Insights - The brokerage sector index experienced a range-bound fluctuation in October 2025, with a decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [4][7] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.510 and 1.580 times, closing at 1.510 times at the end of October [11] - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is expected to decline in November 2025, with a forecasted drop to mid-low levels for the year [47][48] Summary by Sections 1. October 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index maintained a range-bound fluctuation with a significant reduction in volatility, closing down 0.73% for the month [4][7] - A total of 42 listed brokerages saw 17 increase in stock prices, with notable gains from Dongxing Securities (10.08%) and Changjiang Securities (6.27%) [8] - The average P/B ratio for the sector was 1.510 times, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [11] 2. Key Market Factors Affecting October 2025 Performance - Increased volatility in equity markets and a rebound in fixed income markets led to a decline in proprietary trading performance [6] - The average daily trading volume in October was 21,640 billion, down 10.5% month-on-month [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,864 billion, reflecting a stable outlook among investors [32] 3. November 2025 Performance Outlook - Proprietary trading is expected to face pressure due to a comprehensive market correction, with a forecasted decline in monthly investment returns [40][43] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see a slight recovery in brokerage business due to an increase in trading days, despite a decrease in average daily trading volume [44] - The investment banking sector is expected to remain stable, with equity financing slightly declining and debt financing rebounding [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector index has shown signs of further downward adjustment, with a significant gap from the average valuation since 2016 [48] - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [50]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the equity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, tempered expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and profit-taking by institutions, have led to a high-level oscillation in major stock indices. However, the convertible bond market has shown resilience, with significant increases in various convertible bond indices since November [1][2]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Characteristics - Convertible bonds, or "转债," are a type of bond that can be converted into a company's stock at a predetermined price within a specified timeframe, distinguishing them from regular credit bonds due to their conversion rights [1][2]. - Key features of convertible bonds include: they are still bonds requiring regular principal and interest payments; they can be converted into stocks during the conversion period; their prices are significantly influenced by the underlying stock prices; and they often include redemption, repurchase, and downward adjustment clauses, making their pricing more complex [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The core logic supporting the current equity market bull run remains unchanged, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and domestic policy support, suggesting a sustained bullish trend in the domestic equity market [2][3]. - The pure bond market is experiencing limited disturbances due to the central bank's supportive monetary policy and recent resumption of government bond trading, which keeps liquidity conditions favorable and prevents significant increases in pure bond yields [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market are expected to remain tight, with limited issuance of new convertible bonds and strong demand driven by the belief in a slow bull market for equities, indicating that convertible bonds may outperform pure bonds [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 敢突破，赢非凡 2026年可转债市场展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 王明路 A0230525060003 徐亚 A0230524060002 2025.11.20 2026年转债市场有确定性+弹性空间，仓位分歧下降，更加需要关注个券超额 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2025年回顾：三种定价思维的变化。2025年6月之前，可转债的定价思维依旧是周期思维，转债是典型的"上有顶下 有底"的资产，全市场的中位数价格处在130元之下，具有配置价值。2025年6月~9月，可转债的定价思维转变为权益 定价思维，转债的弹性被正股弹性放大；此时，不强赎的个券、上市半年内的个券一旦其正股具有较大的弹性，转债的 价格就会上行，转股溢价率也会很高。2025年10月之后，固收+市场中的负债主要流向了转债的交易盘，这与2025Q2 负债主要流向配置盘不同，与此同时，从对转债的持有规模来看，配置盘配置转债的规模远远小于交易盘，配置盘负债 规模以及负债的边际增量不及交易盘，这就意味着转债市场的定价思维，走向了负债驱动思维。整体来看，2025年全 年转债市场的定 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 17 日 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 稳而不发：透视三季度货币政策执行报告 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli026575@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | （正文） 1. 四季度宏观数据低迷延续 10 月各项宏观数据公布，整体数据趋势呈现除通胀外全线增速回落的趋势。CPI 微幅转正，PPI 跌幅 收窄。其余数据增速均回落。全年保"5"的目标下，政策预期 mao dian 普遍在明年两会 权益市场在美国风险偏好传导以及内需政策预期博弈下回调震荡。债市短端较为稳固，超长端随风险 偏好波动较大。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 央行三季度货币政策执行报告的核心词是"结构性"与"延续"。 ◼ 大水漫灌式降息降准难出现，数量、价格、结构多元工具精细化调控，维稳货币边际宽松。 ◼ 删除"防范资金空 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - This week, 33 new funds are set to launch, with equity funds making up two-thirds of the total offerings, reflecting a strong interest in equity investments amid market fluctuations [1][4]. Fund Launch Details - A total of 26 out of the 33 new funds will start issuing on Monday, November 17, accounting for 78.79% of the week's new funds. The average subscription period for these new funds is 21.27 days, which is longer than previous periods, likely due to recent market conditions [2][4]. - The longest subscription period is for the China Aviation Xiangtai 6-month closed fund at 89 days, while the shortest is for the浦银安盛港股通消费 and 广发上证科创板100增强策略ETF联接 at just 5 days [2]. Fund Types and Goals - Among the new funds, 22 are equity funds, representing two-thirds of the total. There are 10 index equity funds, with two tracking the CSI 500 index. The funds also include a variety of themes such as high dividend and technology growth [4][5]. - 18 of the new funds have specified fundraising targets, with five aiming for 8 billion units. The lowest target is set at 1 billion units for two specific funds [3]. Fixed Income and FOF Products - In the fixed income category, only 7 new bond funds are being launched, indicating a decline in interest for pure bond funds as equity markets recover. However, "fixed income plus" funds are gaining traction [6][7]. - Four mixed-asset FOF products are also being introduced this week, reflecting a growing investor preference for diversified investment strategies. The average return for FOFs that have been established for over six months is 14.29% [8][9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may initiate a "fiscal + monetary" dual easing mode, which is expected to enhance market liquidity [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, successfully surpassing the 4000-point mark, with private equity management scale and financing balance continuously increasing [1] - In October, the newly established equity public funds decreased to 54.823 billion shares, down 42.384 billion shares from the previous month, marking a significant drop [1] Group 2 - The scale of private securities funds reached 5.97 trillion yuan in September, showing an increase compared to August [2] - The average position of private equity long positions rose to 66.22% in September, up 2.40 percentage points from August, indicating a higher investment level [2] - The monthly average trading volume of northbound funds decreased to 258.308 billion yuan in October, down 16.80% from the previous month [2] Group 3 - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed signs of cooling in October, with institutional accounts increasing by 10.48% year-on-year, while individual accounts dropped by 66.34% [3] - Insurance companies' premium income growth has weakened, with a net increase of 261.914 billion yuan in equity assets held by property and life insurance by Q2 2025 [3] - The number of issued wealth management products decreased by 27.98% in October, indicating a decline in market activity [3] Group 4 - In October, the net reduction in industrial capital narrowed to 30.529 billion yuan, with a daily average net reduction of 1.796 billion yuan [4] - The trading pulse of the three main funding flow indicators significantly decreased, indicating a cooling in market trading activity [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but under the current high absolute price and high valuation, the volatility has intensified and the bond nature has weakened. November may be the last wave of adding positions from the perspective of institutional behavior. The current high - valuation situation is expected to remain unchanged [5][8]. - The view on the future of convertible bonds is neutral. It is difficult for convertible bond valuations to have a logic of continuous strengthening. It is likely to fluctuate around the current point. The key to the subsequent trend lies in equities. Investors should appropriately lower the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out and switch in a timely manner, and low - position institutions can actively allocate on dips. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities [5][8]. - Despite the overseas capital market turmoil, the domestic market has slightly recovered this week, hovering around 4000 points, indicating sufficient market confidence. Some over - valued sectors have corrected in the short term, and the weight sectors have temporarily attracted attention. The technology - led slow - bull market remains unchanged, and the subsequent equity trend is still bullish [5][8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Double - Low Performance Stands Out, Style Slightly Switches - The pre - profit - taking behavior of convertible bonds has eased, but with high absolute prices and valuations, volatility has increased and bond nature has weakened. November may be the last chance for institutional position - adding. The high - valuation situation is expected to remain. The view on convertible bonds is neutral, with the key to subsequent trends in equities. Investors should adjust expectations, cash out and switch, and low - position institutions can allocate on dips. The domestic market has recovered slightly, and the technology - led slow - bull market remains [8]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Index Approaches Previous High, Valuation Slightly Rises 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Indexes Close Higher, Trading Volume Declines - This week, most equity indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index led the gains with a 1.08% increase, while the North - Bound 50 Index fell 3.79%. In terms of industries, power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the rise, while beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology led the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 3108.43 billion yuan to 2.01 trillion yuan. The top - ten rising convertible bonds last week were Zhongneng, Zhenhua, etc., and some convertible bonds were more active in trading [11]. 2.2 Trading Volume Continues to Increase, Double - Low and Large - Cap High - Rating Convertible Bonds Perform Well - This week, convertible bonds performed well, following the rise of equities. The average daily trading volume slightly increased to 68.526 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86%, the parity center rose 1.0% to 114.4 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center remained flat at 18.7%. In terms of style, double - low and large - cap high - rating convertible bonds performed well, while high - price and small convertible bonds performed weakly [14].