周一（8月11日）亚洲时段，现货黄金延续回调态势，日内跌幅0.57%，交投于3376.89美元/盎司附近，价格重心仍维持在上周一开盘价水平。尽管上周五 （8月8日）黄金市场因关税政策扰动出现短期波动，但整体周线仍录得1%涨幅，实现两连阳。在美元走弱及数据支撑下，黄金韧性凸显，而本周美国通胀 数据将成为影响价格走势的核心变量。 关税迷雾暂消，市场情绪缓和 特朗普政府上周五澄清将发布新政策，明确进口金条免于关税，此前关于"1公斤及100盎司金条或面临对等关税"的传闻一度引发黄金期货飙升至历史新高， 但随后现货与期货价格均自高位回落。与此同时，特朗普透露计划"尽快"与俄罗斯总统普京会面以推动俄乌停火，地缘风险降温导致避险需求减弱，股市反 弹的同时油价连续七日下跌。值得注意的是，尽管市场情绪转向乐观，黄金仍以周线收涨结束交易，显示其多头根基未被完全动摇。 本周焦点：通胀数据与零售销售齐至 未来一周，美国通胀及零售数据将密集发布，成为黄金市场短期方向的关键指引： 周二（8月12日）CPI数据：作为美联储首选通胀指标的核心PCE指数的前瞻信号，CPI表现将直接影响市场对9月降息的定价。若数据低于预期，可能强化 降息预期并 ...

美国政府针对进口金条征收关税的消息在国际金融市场引发剧烈震荡。在华盛顿公布针对瑞士进口商品 实施39%关税后，英国《金融时报》8日的报道披露，美国海关与边境保护局7月31日签发的裁定函明确 1公斤和100盎司的金条应归类于一个需缴纳更高税额的关税编码之下。《纽约时报》称，这意味着来自 瑞士的相关重量金条将面临39%的关税。这一消息令华尔街措手不及，此前市场普遍预期金条属于免税 范畴。 但白宫随即否认关税计划，称相关报道为"错误信息"，并承诺发布行政令澄清。 尽管白宫试图平息风波，但美国海关与边境保护局的正式裁定函与行政部门的矛盾表态，持续加剧市场 担忧。 美联储大消息。 8月11日，CME"美联储观察"数据披露，美联储9月维持利率不变概率为9.3%，降息25个基点概率达 90.7%。 此外，美联储10月维持利率不变概率为4.5%，累计降息25个基点概率为48.9%，累计降息50个 基点概率为46.5%。 美国股市本周的反弹可能受到重要通胀数据的考验，CPI数据将于周二公布，PPI数据定于周四公布。 如果美国的通胀数据高于预期，可能会令投资者犹豫不决，并导致持续数月的美股涨势受阻，重新引发 对滞胀的担忧。在滞胀 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has a 90.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 9.3% chance of maintaining the current rate [1] - The probability of maintaining the rate in October is 4.5%, while the cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point and 50 basis point cut are 48.9% and 46.5% respectively [1] - Upcoming CPI and PPI data releases are critical, as higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent rebound in the U.S. stock market and reignite concerns about stagflation [1] Group 2 - The South Korean stock index opened up by 0.3%, while the Japanese market was closed for a holiday [2] - The U.S. government's proposed 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars has caused significant turbulence in international financial markets [2] - The White House has denied the tariff plans, labeling the reports as "misinformation," which has led to increased market anxiety due to conflicting statements from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection [3] Group 3 - Bitcoin has surpassed $119,000 [4] - Crude oil futures have declined, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index has seen a slight increase [5] - President Trump is set to meet with President Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire agreement regarding Ukraine [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a rebound, but upcoming inflation data may challenge this trend, with CPI and PPI reports set to be released this week [1] Market Performance - Dow Jones futures rose by approximately 60 points, reflecting a 0.1% increase - S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also showed slight gains - Gold prices declined while Bitcoin surpassed $119,000 - Crude oil futures experienced a downturn - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index saw a modest increase against six major currencies [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming CPI data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, with the report due on Tuesday - PPI data is scheduled for release on Thursday - Higher-than-expected inflation data could lead to investor hesitation and potentially halt the recent upward momentum in U.S. stocks, reigniting concerns over stagflation [1] Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump is set to meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss a potential ceasefire agreement regarding Ukraine - Discussions surrounding Ukraine may have implications across various sectors, including sanctions, energy markets, and arms sales [1] Market Sentiment - Stephen Innes, a partner at SPI Asset Management, indicated that the market may shift from a stable phase to a more volatile one, influenced by macro trends and geopolitical developments [1]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 11 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、纽约联储 7 月的调查显示，人们对未来一年的通胀预期从 6 月的 3%升至 3.1%。 7 月份有更多消费者愿意主动离职，认为未来三个月内能找到工作的几率略有上升。 2、至 7 月 26 日当周，美国持续申领失业救济人数升至 197.4 万，创 2021 年 11 月 | | | | | 以来新高，表明就业美国市场降温，强化 9 月降息预期。截至 8 月 2 日当周，首申 | | | | | 人数略增至 22.6 万但长期稳定。企业不愿再招新员工，但也没急着裁员。 | | | | | 3、美国信用卡债务在 6 月份下降了 10 多亿美元，连续第二个月下降。麦当劳 CEO ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price continues to oscillate, with regional price differences widening. After the U.S. clarified that gold is not subject to tariffs, the price difference between New York gold and London gold converged. The market will focus more on the economic fundamentals, and the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging. The U.S. economy shows signs of stagflation. The short - term gold price remains in an oscillatory state, and there is a risk of a short - term correction [3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - Various gold - related indicators show changes, including a 28.0% change in the domestic basis, a - 49.1% change in the internal - external futures price difference, a 0.8% increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, etc. [12] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.35%, oil prices fell 4.9%, the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.39%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.97% to 98.2, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.28%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.36%, and the VIX index dropped to 15.15 [18][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 2.43%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 2.11%. Real interest rates fluctuated around 1.88%, the gold price rose 1%, the spot commodity index rose slightly, and the U.S. dollar index closed down. U.S. and German bonds rebounded, the U.S. - German interest rate spread is 1.59%, the UK Treasury yield is 4.6%, and the Japanese bond yield is 1.49%. The euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, and most non - U.S. currencies appreciated [23][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation rose to 162,000 lots, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 959 tons. The RMB appreciated slightly, and Shanghai gold was at a discount to the overseas market. Gold and silver closed up, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88.6 [35][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important economic data and events include Japan's market closure on Monday, the U.S. July CPI and 7 - month NFIB small business confidence index and the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate meeting on Tuesday, Germany's July CPI on Thursday, and the U.S. July PPI and initial jobless claims on Friday [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, with most stock markets rising, most bond yields falling, and the US Treasury yield rising to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] - The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced market trading logic. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market [2] - The upcoming meeting between the US and Russian leaders may have limited effect on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There are variables in the process, and the US dollar index continues to face downward pressure [37][38] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields fell, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, most non - US currencies appreciated, gold prices rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15, the spot commodity index closed higher, and Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with both US and A - shares rising over 2%. Developed markets' stock markets rebounded, the S&P 500 rose 2.43%, emerging markets' stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%, and the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.5%. The implementation of US tariffs, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, the approaching expiration of the Sino - US tariff easing period, changes in the Fed's internal stance, inflation expectations, and the UK's interest rate cut policy have all influenced the market. Inflation pressure increasing and delaying interest rate cuts will bring adjustment pressure to the stock market. Domestic economic data was better than expected, but inflation pressure was still low, and the stock market's optimistic sentiment fluctuated but remained strong overall [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond market yields mostly declined, while the US Treasury yield rose to 4.28%. Eurozone government bonds mostly declined, and emerging market bond yields mostly declined. The UK central bank cut interest rates as expected, but the number of voting members against the cut increased. The nomination of Milan as a temporary Fed governor may increase the dovish camp in the Fed. The demand for US 10 - year Treasury bond auctions was poor, and US Treasury yields still have room to rise. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly dropped to 1.7%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly widened to 258bp, and the domestic bond market rebounded, but the rebound space was limited [14][18][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.97% to 98.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.06%, the euro rose 0.48%, the pound rose 1.29%, the yen fell 0.23%, the Swiss franc fell 0.53%, the rand rose 2%, and the real, peso, Thai baht, and rupee rose over 1%. The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar closed higher [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1% to $3,397 per ounce. US tariff policies and the increase in the Fed's dovish camp pushed up the price of gold, but the price remained in a volatile range. Brent crude oil fell 4.9% to $67.8 per barrel. The upcoming meeting between the US and Russia and OPEC+ production increases made the crude oil supply - demand pattern remain loose. The domestic industrial product market was in a stage of increased long - short game, and the commodity spot index closed higher with fluctuations [31][33] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The meeting between US and Russian leaders is scheduled. The expected effect of this meeting on resolving the Russia - Ukraine conflict is limited, and there are variables in the process [34][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's market is closed for one day - Tuesday: US July CPI, July NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; Australia's central bank interest rate meeting - Wednesday: Germany's July CPI - Thursday: US July PPI, weekly initial jobless claims - Friday: China's July social retail sales, industrial added value; US July retail sales, preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [39]

Global Asset Price Performance - European stock markets lead the gains, with major global stock markets mostly rising this week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.6%, 0.9%, and 3.9% respectively compared to last week. The significant rise in European indices is attributed to strong financial sector earnings and potential peace talks between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - In the bond market, major government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 4 basis points. Oil prices fell this week, likely due to progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, reducing geopolitical risks. The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Stephen Miran has been nominated as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, succeeding Kugler until January next year. Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish stances, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. If Miran's nomination is confirmed after Congress's recess, it may exacerbate divisions within the Fed [4] - The Bank of England has reduced its policy rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle. The Bank of Japan expressed concerns about lagging monetary policy in the face of inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, primarily due to a decrease in imports. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8% in July, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity, with rising costs. Key components showed a 1.6 percentage point decline in business activity, and both export and import indices fell below the neutral line [7] - The U.S. is set to impose tariffs on imported semiconductors at approximately 100%, with exemptions for companies like Apple that invest in U.S. manufacturing. Additionally, tariffs on pharmaceuticals may reach up to 250% [7] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, indicating resilient consumer spending. Service production also showed positive trends, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in May [16]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's second-quarter earnings report highlighted concerns regarding tariffs, indicating potential adverse effects on the economy and the company's operations [2][3][10]. Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported strong operating results for Q2, but investors were disappointed by the lack of stock repurchases [2]. - The company has a diverse portfolio, including nearly $300 billion in equities, significant insurance and energy assets, and a major railroad, providing strong visibility into the broader economy [11]. Tariff Concerns - The report specifically mentioned President Trump's tariffs, with Buffett previously describing tariffs as "an act of war" and a tax on goods [3][6]. - Current tariff rates are significant, with imports facing rates of 15% to 40%, which could impact inflation and business operations [7][12]. - The uncertainty surrounding changing tariff rates is causing businesses to pause hiring and capital expenditures, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Berkshire's operations [8][9]. Economic Implications - While inflation has not surged overall, it is beginning to appear in sectors affected by tariffs, such as apparel and appliances [13]. - There are concerns that prolonged uncertainty from tariffs could stall economic growth and lead to disinflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage interest rates [14]. - The market has been able to absorb tariff news so far, but increasing data may force a reevaluation of the situation [15].

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin has recently broken through the key resistance level of $116,000, forming a potential double bottom structure, indicating a strong technical pattern [1] - Ethereum has formed a somewhat irregular W bottom pattern, with indicators suggesting a high probability of continued upward movement and new highs in the coming week [3][5] - Ethereum's price has surged from $4066 to $4220, with the potential to turn the previous resistance of $4112 into a support level [5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Solana is currently undervalued in the market, with on-chain transaction volumes comparable to Ethereum, despite its market cap being significantly lower [8] - Two major catalysts for Solana include upcoming micro-strategies aiming to raise substantial funds for investment and a high probability of approval for a spot ETF [10][11] - The ideal entry points for Solana are around $158 and $130, with potential for significant returns as the market is expected to rebound [14] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Impact - The upcoming CPI inflation data is a significant variable that may affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of a 0.1% increase in both CPI and core CPI [22] - Despite potential inflation concerns, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve canceling the September rate cut remains low due to previous labor market weaknesses [24] - Historical patterns suggest that economic downturns often follow periods of interest rate hikes, raising concerns about potential recession risks in the coming year [24][25]