Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call is hosted by Caifeng Securities, focusing on macroeconomic analysis and investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Introduction of New Product**: The call introduces a new weekly product aimed at addressing current market hotspots and investor concerns, with a focus on concise and clear communication [1][2]. 2. **Discussion on Stagflation**: The primary topic is the current state of stagflation, particularly in relation to the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have exceeded market expectations [2][3]. 3. **Market Reactions**: The call notes that aside from oil and energy-related assets, most other asset classes are showing weakness, particularly those that had previously seen significant gains [2][3]. 4. **Historical Comparisons**: The current macroeconomic and political climate is compared to the 1970s, highlighting similarities in geopolitical tensions and rising government debt levels [4][5]. 5. **Debt and Inflation Concerns**: The discussion emphasizes the growing concerns over sovereign currency credibility and the potential for a repeat of the Bretton Woods collapse, leading to increased gold prices [5][6]. 6. **Technological Cycles**: The analysis suggests that the economy is in a technological downturn, similar to the late 1970s, where old technologies are exhausted and new technologies, like AI, are not yet commercially viable [6][7]. 7. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The call indicates that geopolitical conflicts are likely to become more frequent, contributing to a persistent stagflation environment, regardless of the US-Iran conflict's outcome [10][11]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on energy, chemicals, and agricultural products as safer investments during this stagflation period, while being cautious with risk assets like stocks [16][17]. 9. **A-Shares Outlook**: The A-share market is viewed positively due to effective regulatory control and limited foreign capital influence, suggesting a healthier market environment compared to US equities [20][22]. 10. **Inflation Impact**: The call estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices could raise China's CPI by approximately 0.2 percentage points and PPI by 0.5 percentage points, indicating potential inflationary pressures [21][22]. 11. **Long-term Predictions**: The long-term outlook suggests that oil prices are unlikely to return to previous lows, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties likely to keep prices elevated [15][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: The call highlights that the current market sentiment is heavily focused on AI investments, which may be vulnerable to liquidity shocks [16][19]. 2. **Gold as a Safe Haven**: While gold is seen as a high-probability investment, its volatility and uncertain price potential are noted as concerns [18][19]. 3. **Debt Market Outlook**: The US debt market may face challenges as liquidity tightens, while China's bond market is expected to remain stable due to low interest rate expectations [23][24]. 4. **Final Recommendations**: The overall conclusion stresses the need for asset allocation adjustments in light of the ongoing stagflation, regardless of geopolitical developments [24][25].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-11 油价回落缓和通胀担忧，贵⾦属集体上 涨 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注霍尔木兹海峡局势及后续滞胀交易 切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均震荡上涨，COMEX黄金涨幅 超2%、突破5230美元/盎司，SHFE黄金涨幅超1%、站上1150元/千克； 主要受日内油价大幅下跌使得通胀担忧缓和、以及美元涨势暂缓等提 振。中东冲突已进入第11天，据中国新闻网和北京青年报报道，当地 时间3月9日，特朗普称他将取消一些与石油相关的制裁、以平抑油 价；并称若时机成熟，美国海军将在霍尔木兹海峡护航。同日，七国 集团财长发表声明称，各方已准备好采取必要措施，包括通过释放储 备等方式支持全球能源供应。 展望：短期黄金或呈区间震荡，需关注霍尔木兹海峡复航情况、外围 股市走向、3月11日美国2月CPI数据、3月13日美国PCE数据以及3月 17-18日联储议息会议决议等。长期我们对黄金趋势维持乐观，美元 信用弱化主线未改；若后续市场转向滞胀交易，将为金价带来阶段性 上行催化。 白银观点：或维持区间震荡运行，关注美伊冲突进展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 10, 2026, equity index futures rose, while most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals and agricultural products falling across the board [2][9]. - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, showing continued steady improvement and strong resilience [34]. - Trump said he will lift some sanctions to stabilize international oil prices, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [1][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 10, equity index futures (IM and IC) rose 1.6%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Silver (up 7.1% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Platinum (up 4.3% with open interest decreasing 0.9% month - on - month), and Lithium Carbonate (up 4.2% with open interest increasing 0.6% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 13.9% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), Crude Oil (down 10.8% with open interest decreasing 13.3% month - on - month), and Methanol (down 7.6% with open interest decreasing 16.2% month - on - month) [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On March 10, the Gold main contract rose 0.8% to 1150.0 yuan/g (SHFE). Short - term may operate in a range - bound manner. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist, and China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month. Long - term trend is optimistic as the weakening of U.S. dollar credibility remains unchanged [15][16][17]. - **Silver**: On March 10, the main contract of Silver rose 7.1% to 22758 yuan/kg (SHFE). It may remain range - bound, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to strengthen in oscillations in the short term. Short - term macro drivers are under pressure, and its own spot fundamentals are softening. Long - term trend is expected to align with gold [21][22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On March 10, the main contract of Lithium Carbonate rose 4.2% to 163000 yuan/ton (GFEX). Energy price increase expectations boost energy storage demand. In March, the fundamental outlook is strong, but downstream performance needs to be observed. Expect prices to stay range - bound [27][28][29]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - China's imports and exports in RMB terms rose 17.1% and 19.2% YoY respectively in Jan - Feb 2026, with total trade hitting 7.73 trillion yuan [34]. - Trump will lift some oil - related sanctions to stabilize oil prices, and the military operation against Iran will end "soon" but "not" this week [34]. - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran will decide when the war ends [34]. - Israel launched an air strike on Iran's capital Tehran on March 10th, targeting local nuclear laboratories [34]. 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading fee standards, and minimum opening & closing order sizes for various futures contracts on March 10, 2026 [35][39][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex and evolving situation in Iran and its impact on global markets, highlighting the dual characteristics of "risk-off" and "stagflation" trading, with recent signs of "risk-on" and liquidity recovery [3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions to the Iran Situation - Following military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East surged, causing Brent crude oil prices to spike from approximately $70 per barrel to nearly $120 per barrel, an increase of over 70% [3]. - The oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of global supply, could significantly affect oil prices and the global market if disrupted for an extended period [3]. - Initially, the global market exhibited "risk-off" and "stagflation" characteristics, with a strong dollar and rising oil prices leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets [3]. - As the conflict continued, concerns about rising oil prices leading to inflation risks grew, resulting in a shift where gold prices turned from rising to falling, while the dollar remained strong and bonds faced downward pressure [3]. Group 2: Potential Scenarios and Market Lines - Three potential scenarios for the Middle East situation are outlined: 1. **Negotiation or "Cold Peace"**: If the conflict cools through third-party mediation, oil prices may retreat, and the market could shift to a typical "risk-on" trading environment, with global stocks and bonds rebounding [6]. 2. **Low-Intensity Confrontation**: Continued airstrikes by the US and Israel may lead to a sustained high oil price environment, resulting in ongoing pressure on stocks and bonds, while the dollar remains strong [7]. 3. **Escalation of Conflict**: If the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, global oil supply would be severely impacted, potentially leading to uncontrolled oil price surges and significant declines in global stock and bond markets [9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - If the Iran situation does not escalate further, the macroeconomic impact may lead to a phase of stagflation characterized by rising inflation and declining growth [10]. - The rise in energy prices typically translates into higher transportation and production costs, which historically correlates strongly with increases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10]. - The article predicts that the inflationary effects of rising oil prices will not be reflected in February's CPI data but will significantly impact March's CPI readings, with expectations of a nominal CPI increase to 0.27% [12]. Group 4: Comparison with Previous Conflicts - The current geopolitical situation is compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, noting that the macroeconomic and policy contexts differ significantly, which may result in lower inflation peaks this time [21]. - Key differences include improved global supply chain conditions, weaker economic demand, lower inflation levels prior to the conflict, and a lower probability of aggressive monetary tightening compared to 2022 [21][24][32]. - The article suggests that even if oil prices rise to $140 per barrel, the US CPI may only reach around 4%, significantly lower than the 9.1% peak observed during the previous conflict [24]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends maintaining commodity positions as a hedge against geopolitical risks and suggests accumulating gold and Chinese stocks on dips [34]. - It is anticipated that if the Iran situation cools, it would benefit both domestic and foreign stock and bond valuations, with historical data indicating that markets typically recover from geopolitical shocks within approximately 60 days [36]. - The potential for gold to rebound is highlighted, driven by easing inflation concerns, rising risk aversion, and renewed interest in easing monetary policy [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-3-10 通胀担忧升温叠加美元偏强，贵⾦属震 荡运⾏ 美伊冲突已进⼊第⼗天，敌对⾏动持续；伊朗领导层交接完成，哈梅内伊 之⼦当选新领袖、表明强硬派依然牢牢掌权，特朗普表态"结果不可接 受"，地缘⻛险持续升温。⽇内贵⾦属震荡运⾏，内外盘⾛势有所分化， 主因中东局势升级进⼀步推升⽇内油价、加剧通胀担忧，抵消上周五美国 ⾮农数据爆冷带来的利好。预计短线贵⾦属维持区间震荡，后续重点关注 霍尔⽊兹海峡局势、3⽉11⽇将公布的美国2⽉CPI数据、3⽉17-18⽇联储 议息会议决议等。（以上新闻来⾃中国新闻⽹和新京报，数据来⾃万得） 宏观研究团队 研究员： 黄金观点：短期或震荡运行，关注后续滞胀交易切换的潜在驱动 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内黄金震荡运行，COMEX金价跌幅超1%，SHF E金价变动不大，主因日内原油价格拉涨加剧通胀担忧，抑制美联储 降息预期并支撑美元偏强。中东地缘风险延续，据中国新闻网报道， 伊朗已宣布已故最高领袖赛义德·阿里·哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴·哈 梅内伊为新任最高领袖，表明伊朗强硬派掌权格局稳固。此外，交易 商从黄金 ...

2026 年 03 月 09 日 海外滞胀交易升温，A 股防御为主 分析师：杨芹芹 S1050523040001 yangqq@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：孙航 S1050525050001 sunhang@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：卫正 S1050124080020 weizheng2@cfsc.com.cn 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《假期海外资产上涨，国内消费 出行量增，把握春季红包的两大方 向》2026-02-24 2、《海外等待波动下降，A 股春节 红包可期》2026-02-10 3、《ETF 流出风险整体可控，A 股 延续震荡上行》2026-01-26 投资要点 ▌ 海外宏观热点与策略 海外宏观： 1）美以伊局势不确定性升温，VIX 飙升至关税以 来新高。2）霍尔木兹海峡停摆+产油国减产，原油创史上最 大周涨幅，重塑资产定价逻辑。3）非农爆冷，类滞胀交易升 温。4）私人信贷遭遇流动性冲击，但因规模有限且有多种缓 冲工具，整体风险可控，不至于次贷再现。 美股：短期仍保持谨慎。地 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests increasing allocation to defensive sectors [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the risk of stagflation trading and recommends focusing on commodities and gold while reducing stock allocations [2] - The A-share technical scoring model indicates a cautious approach to market participation [3] - The style timing model continues to recommend a barbell strategy, favoring small-cap stocks [4][19] - The industry rotation model favors consumer services, retail, insurance, coal, and beverages, maintaining a value-oriented style [5][26] - The all-weather enhanced portfolio in China has achieved an absolute return of 5.22% year-to-date [6][35] Summary by Sections A-share Technical Scoring Model - The model aims to capture market conditions through various dimensions such as price, volume, volatility, trend, and crowding, resulting in a neutral score indicating cautious market participation [3][10] Style Timing Model - The model suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on small-cap stocks while keeping a neutral stance on dividend styles, with recent signals indicating a low crowding environment [4][19][24] Industry Rotation Model - The model utilizes genetic programming to identify top-performing sectors, currently favoring consumer services, retail, insurance, coal, and beverages, with a focus on value [5][26][29] All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio - The portfolio employs a macro factor risk parity framework, achieving a year-to-date return of 5.22%, with recent adjustments favoring commodities and gold while reducing non-defensive stocks [6][35][36]

Employment Data Insights - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below market expectations[2] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, while the labor participation rate remained stable at 62%[2] - Hourly wage growth maintained a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with a year-on-year growth rate rising to 3.8%[2] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector saw a job loss of 28,000, primarily due to strike activities, while federal government employment decreased by 10,000, marking a total reduction of 330,000 jobs since October 2024[2] - The long-term unemployment figure (27 weeks or more) stood at 1.9 million, significantly higher than the 1.5 million reported in the same month last year, representing 25.3% of total unemployment[2] Market Implications - The weak labor market data raises concerns about a potential shift towards stagflation, with market expectations adjusting accordingly[2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to rising oil prices, which may further elevate inflation expectations[2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the dual pressures of a cooling job market and escalating energy prices, with interest rate cut expectations now pushed to September 2026[2] Asset Class Projections - In the context of delayed interest rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields are likely to rise, and the U.S. dollar index may also strengthen[2] - Risk assets, particularly the Nasdaq, are showing signs of weakness, with a potential end to the upward trend if key support levels are breached[2] - Short-term oil price increases are expected to persist, while gold may find support amid stagflation concerns, necessitating caution in the copper market[2] Risk Factors - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could lead to significant impacts on trade and financial markets[14] - Further geopolitical crises, particularly in the Middle East, may heighten global risk aversion and market volatility[14] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economic environment[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - This week, stagflation trading overseas has heated up. The escalation of the US - Iran situation, with a trend from "blitzkrieg" to "protracted war" and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a surge in oil prices. The weakening of US non - farm data has also contributed. Except for the US dollar strengthening due to global liquidity concerns, other assets seem to be "opponents" of crude oil [2]. - The financial market shows a sharply differentiated pattern of "strong oil and weak everything else". Brent crude oil soared 27.88% to $92.69 per barrel in a single week. Global stock markets were generally under pressure, with Europe leading the decline and the US Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 3.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 20bp to 4.14%, reflecting rising inflation expectations. Spot gold fell 2.03% as the strong US dollar and rising yields suppressed its hedging function. The VIX soared to 29.49, and market panic increased but did not break the extreme threshold. Chinese bonds declined slightly, and the domestic liquidity - loose pattern was not significantly affected [2]. - In terms of macro data, US non - farm and PMI data show stagflation signals of "weak quantity and rising prices". In February, the number of new non - farm jobs was - 92,000, far worse than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, and the labor participation rate was only 62.0%. The ISM manufacturing PMI remained at an expansion level of 52.4, but the price index soared to 70.5, the highest since June 2022. The manufacturing PMIs of the Eurozone and Japan rose to 50.8 and 53.0 respectively, returning to or accelerating expansion [2]. - High - frequency data shows that the US economic momentum is still relatively strong, but financial conditions have tightened marginally. GDPNow indicates a first - quarter growth rate of 2.1%. The initial jobless claims were 213,000, remaining at a low level, while the continued jobless claims rose to 1.868 million, indicating that the difficulty of re - employment may have increased. The Redbook retail sales increased year - on - year to 7.0%, showing consumption resilience. The 30 - year mortgage rate dropped to 6.11%, supporting housing demand. The CRB commodity index rose 12.6% in a single week, hitting a new high, and the financial conditions indexes of the US and Europe both declined significantly, and risk appetite declined [2]. - At the overseas policy level, there are obvious differences among Federal Reserve voting members in their assessment of the impact of geopolitical and tariff shocks. Some are inclined to continue cutting interest rates, while others are more cautious and may even consider raising rates. The ECB emphasizes two - way flexibility, the BOJ incorporates the Middle East shock into its assessment framework, and the US shows a tactical relaxation of Russian oil sanctions to ease the supply gap [2]. - In terms of geopolitical situation, Iran has entered the most dangerous leadership transition period in its history, and the direction of the conflict is still highly uncertain. After the death of Khamenei, power has been transferred to a three - member temporary committee. Missile launches have dropped by nearly 90%, but the "Kurdish card" is being re - considered. Trump's definition of "unconditional surrender" is becoming more flexible, and there is a possibility of a "decent retreat" after declaring victory. Although oil prices have incorporated a large amount of risk premium, the continued blockade of the Strait and the risk of oil tanker attacks still pose upward pressure. China maintains a cautious distance from the conflict, and the process of Trump's visit to China is unlikely to be affected [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Overview: Stagflation Trading Heats Up - US non - farm data was significantly worse than expected, mainly due to the Kaiser strike and the BLS birth - death model adjustment. The manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, but the price sub - item soared, and inflation pressure re - accumulated. The US - Israel joint strike on Iran led to a sharp escalation of the Middle East situation, with the tanker transportation in the Strait of Hormuz interrupted. Brent crude oil soared nearly 28% in a single week, global stock markets were generally under pressure, and US Treasury yields rose due to rising inflation expectations [6]. 3.2 Financial Markets: Oil Surges, US Dollar Strengthens, Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Under Pressure - The commodity sector showed significant differentiation. Crude oil soared due to the escalation of the Iran war, becoming the most volatile asset class. Brent crude oil rose from $72.48 per barrel at the beginning of the week to $92.69 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 27.88%. Spot gold fell 2.03% to $5171.74 per ounce, as the strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields suppressed the gold price. London aluminum rose 9.75% to $3446 per ton, possibly due to the expected increase in aluminum smelting costs caused by rising energy costs [14]. - Global stock markets were generally sold off. Geopolitical conflicts and soaring energy prices had a double - blow to corporate profit prospects. European markets had the largest decline, while A - shares and US stocks were relatively resilient. In the US stock market, the Dow Jones fell 3.01%, the S&P 500 fell 2.02%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.24%. In the Chinese stock market, the CSI 300 fell 1.54%, the Hang Seng Index fell 3.28%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.71% [15][16]. - The yields of government bonds in major global economies mostly rose, reflecting market concerns about inflation caused by soaring energy prices. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 20.08bp to 4.1383%, and the 30 - year rose 14.61bp to 4.7567%. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield fell 0.80bp to 1.801%, and the 30 - year fell 1.20bp to 2.285%, indicating that the domestic liquidity - loose pattern was not significantly affected by external shocks [18]. - Global major spread indicators showed the characteristics of widening credit spreads, narrow - range fluctuations in term spreads, and expanding European sovereign spreads. The US high - yield bond spread widened by about 14bp, reflecting an increase in the market's pricing of low - rating credit risks. The US term spread (10Y - 2Y) fluctuated in a narrow range, and the yield curve shape was relatively stable. The yields of 10 - year German and Italian bonds rose, and the Italian - German spread widened. The 10 - year Japanese bond yield also continued to rise moderately [19]. - In terms of exchange rates, geopolitical conflicts drove safe - haven funds into US dollar assets, the US dollar index strengthened, and non - US currencies were generally under pressure, but the RMB was relatively stable. The US dollar index rose from 97.608 to 98.986 (+1.41%). The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly to 6.9047, and the RMB appreciated against the euro. Volatility indicators soared, and market panic increased, but the absolute level was still lower than the historical extreme value [24][25]. 3.3 Overseas Released Data 3.3.1 US Non - Farm Data Weakens More Than Expected - In February, the number of new non - farm jobs was - 92,000, far lower than the market expectation of 55,000. The main reasons were the Kaiser strike, which affected about 31,000 workers in California and Hawaii, and the BLS's systematic adjustment of the birth - death model. Without these two impacts, the new non - farm jobs would have exceeded market expectations [26]. - The unemployment rate in February was 4.44%, up 0.12% from the previous month. The labor participation rate was only 62.0%, and re - entrants to the labor market were the main factor driving up the unemployment rate. The labor market had a greater impact on young people and ethnic minorities, reflecting certain structural problems [29][31]. - Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut path may be disturbed. If the current oil price increase does not significantly raise inflation expectations, the probability of an interest - rate cut in June may further increase [33]. 3.3.2 US PMI Price Index Soars, Eurozone PMI Returns to Expansion - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMIs of major overseas economies generally improved, and most returned to the expansion range. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, breaking through the boom - bust line for the first time in nearly two years. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9, driving the Eurozone's manufacturing recovery. Japan's manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0, reaching a new high in recent years [36]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, remaining in the expansion range for the second consecutive month. The new order index and production index slowed down but still expanded, the employment index improved slightly but remained in contraction, and the price index soared to 70.5, the highest since June 2022, indicating re - accumulated inflation pressure in the manufacturing sector, which may strengthen the Fed's wait - and - see stance [37]. 3.4 Overseas High - Frequency Data Tracking 3.4.1 Economic Prosperity: Tightening of US and European Financing Conditions - The US economic surprise index first rose and then fell in the past week, while the Eurozone economic surprise index stabilized after a significant decline. Overall, the US economic data exceeded expectations more than the Eurozone. The US and European financial conditions indexes both tightened, which may be related to the increasing uncertainty of global trade policies and the decline in risk appetite [39][41][42]. 3.4.2 US High - Frequency Employment Data Remains Robust - The US labor market high - frequency data was generally stable, but the continued jobless claims rebounded slightly. The initial jobless claims remained at a low level, indicating limited short - term lay - off pressure, while the increase in continued jobless claims suggested that the difficulty of re - employment may have increased [44]. 3.4.3 US Commodity Prices Rise Significantly, Mortgage Rates Fall - The US consumer market showed resilience, with the Redbook retail sales year - on - year growth rate rising to 7.0%. The 30 - year mortgage rate dropped to 6.11%, and the MBA mortgage application index improved, indicating that low interest rates supported housing demand. The CRB commodity index rose 12.6% in a single week, hitting a new high, and the impact of commodity inflation on core inflation needs to be monitored [46][47]. 3.5 Overseas Policy and Geopolitical Analysis 3.5.1 Overseas Macroeconomic Policy: Pay Close Attention to the Inflation Impact of the Middle East Situation - There are differences among Federal Reserve voting members on whether to regard the inflation disturbance caused by geopolitical and tariff issues as short - term noise. Some members believe that further interest - rate cuts are necessary if inflation falls as expected, while others are more cautious. The ECB emphasizes two - way flexibility, and the BOJ has incorporated the Middle East shock into its policy assessment framework. The US has shown a tactical relaxation of Russian oil sanctions [51][52]. 3.5.2 Geopolitical Analysis: Uncertainty in the Iranian Situation Increases - Politically, Iran has entered the most dangerous leadership transition period in its history. Power has been transferred to a three - member temporary committee. Militarily, the scale of Iran's missile attacks on Israel has significantly decreased. The US military goal may be achievable, but Israel's political goal may be difficult to achieve. Trump's definition of "unconditional surrender" is flexible, and there are possibilities of a "decent retreat". Oil prices have incorporated a large amount of risk premium, but there is still upward pressure. The "Kurdish card" may be played again, aiming to disrupt Iran's internal stability. China maintains a cautious distance from the conflict, and Trump's visit to China is unlikely to be affected [53][55][57]. 3.5.3 Other Overseas News - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, the Ukraine - Russia talks may be rescheduled due to the escalation of the Middle East situation. The EU will strengthen support for Ukraine's reform and accession process. Russia launched large - scale missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. - In terms of tariffs, multiple US states sued the Trump administration over new global tariff measures, and the US trade court ordered the government to refund tariffs [60]. 3.6 Future One - Week Important Agenda - Domestically, key data to be focused on include CPI/PPI, import and export, and money supply/social financing/deposit and loan data. Overseas, key data include US CPI, import and export, and PCE data. There are also some events with undetermined specific times, such as the continuous fermentation of the Iran war, the G7 finance ministers' meeting to discuss the economic impact of the Middle East situation, and a possible meeting between Bezant and Vice - Premier He [63].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of the recent U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran, emphasizing the importance of the conflict's duration on global asset prices and market behavior [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the military strikes, global asset markets exhibited significant volatility, with a notable increase in risk-averse sentiment leading to rapid price adjustments [4]. - The initial market reaction is characterized by a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" pattern, where asset prices fluctuate sharply before stabilizing or reversing [4]. Scenario Analysis - Two scenarios are presented regarding the conflict's duration: 1. **Short-term Conflict**: This scenario suggests that the U.S.-Israel strikes will be limited to initial airstrikes, with Iran retaliating without escalating to a ground war. The market is expected to digest this situation within 1 to 2 weeks, with oil and gold prices initially spiking before stabilizing [5][6]. 2. **Prolonged Conflict**: In this scenario, the conflict lasts for several months, leading to a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and significant disruptions in global energy supply. This would shift market dynamics towards a "stagflation trading" environment, with prolonged high oil prices and persistent inflationary pressures [8][10]. Asset Price Predictions - Oil prices are expected to be highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, with predictions of a short-term increase due to the conflict. However, if the situation escalates, prices could rise significantly [6][7]. - Gold is anticipated to experience a similar pattern, with initial price increases followed by a retreat as market focus shifts back to interest rate dynamics [8]. - The stock market, particularly A-shares, may face initial pressure but could recover if the conflict does not escalate further [8]. Key Observations - The article highlights three critical signals to monitor: whether Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, if Iran will launch missile attacks on Israel, and whether the U.S. and Israel will conduct further large-scale airstrikes [10]. - The potential for a long-term conflict could lead to a complete restructuring of asset allocations in the market, with strategic assets like energy, gold, and defense stocks gaining value [9][10].