Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Key Takeaways "Jobs Week" Kicks Off with ADP in December: 41KJob Changers Now No Longer Make Notably More than Job StayersJOLTS for November Come Out After the Opening BellWednesday, January 7th, 2026Today’s pre-market trading is mixed/flat at this hour, directly following the first report for “Jobs Week”: December private-sector payrolls from Automated Data Processing (ADP) are out this morning, slightly below estimates but rebounding to a positive print. Private-sector payrolls hit +41K last month, -7K fr ...

尽管面临美国关税压力和地缘紧张局势，印度政府预计本财年经济增速将超过7%，该国仍将保持全球 主要经济体中增长最快的地位。 印度仍是少数几个未与美国达成贸易协议的主要经济体之一，不确定性对经济前景构成压力。美国总统 特朗普去年8月对印度出口商品征收50%的关税，这是亚洲地区最高税率。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普1月4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提 高对印度产品征收的关税。2025年8月，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，对印度输美商品加征惩 罚性关税。 关税重创了印度劳动密集型出口行业，包括纺织品、宝石珠宝和皮革制品。高盛集团预计，即使假设印 度与美国在3月前达成贸易协议，下一财年印度经济增速也将放缓至6.8%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月7日，印度统计和计划实施部发布的预估数据显示，截至明年3月的财年国内生产总值预计增长 7.4%，略低于经济学家中值预期7.5%。最终数据将在财年结束后公布。值得注意的是， ...

2025年12月31日，吉林省全社会年用电量首次突破1000亿千瓦时大关，达到1011.9亿千瓦时，同比增长 6.49%，作为衡量地区经济活力的"晴雨表"，全社会年用电量迈过千亿大关，是吉林省经济总量扩张的 一个规模里程碑。 数据显示年用电量增速分别达到：第一产业13.6%、第二产业4.2%、第三产业10.1%、居民7.5%。其 中，化学原料和化学制品制造业、化学纤维制造业、电子设备制造业用电增速超过40%，住宿和餐饮 业、批发和零售业、金融业用电增速超过10%。 2025年以来，国网吉林省电力有限公司扛稳扛牢粮食安全责任，全面开展机井通电集中攻坚，春耕前实 现存量高标准农田1.78万眼机井全部通电，成立571支供电服务队伍，深入田间地头和秋粮生产企业开 展走访服务2.24万人次，协助排查用电安全隐患0.61万处；持续优化用电营商环境，"项目长"制包保服 务省内一汽集团、吉林石化等稳增长重点企业和重大项目，高效完成宽带边疆、沈白高铁等576项重大 项目接电任务，"三零三省"服务惠及17.26万用户，节约社会接电成本9.12亿元，重大项目接电时间同比 压缩20%；倾力服务重大文旅活动，全年累计派出服务人员189 ...

（原标题：哥伦比亚全国外贸协会分析2026年哥出口挑战） 该协会同时提醒，受政府能源转型政策影响，矿产和能源产品出口将继续下滑。咖啡在2025年创下 高位后，2026年可能面临产量和价格回落。多重因素叠加下，出口增速或不及进口，贸易逆差可能扩 大，外贸对经济增长的拉动作用减弱。 据哥伦比亚《新世纪报》1月4日报道，哥全国外贸协会表示，2026年哥出口增长关键在于农业、制 造业及卫生检疫能力提升。 该协会支持，2026年哥农业出口仍将是主力军，尤其是北美市场，受2026年世界杯带动的旅游和消 费需求，有望为哥农产品出口提供支撑。当前有潜力的出口产品包括牛油果、鲜花、棕榈油、可可和牛 肉，但部分领域仍受制于卫生标准和投资不足。制造业方面，钢铁、纸品、肥皂以及食品加工类产品被 视为新的增长点。市场布局上，在稳住美国、欧洲和区域市场的同时，建议加快拓展亚洲、中东和非洲 等新兴市场。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储理事米兰：财政政策将支持今年的经济增长。 ...

巴尔金称，尽管从历史标准来看失业率仍处于低位，但政策制定者正密切关注双重使命的两个方面，力 求在控制通胀的同时推动就业增长。"眼下招聘活动热度低迷，没有人愿意看到劳动力市场进一步恶 化；而通胀水平持续高于目标值已近五年，也没有人希望高通胀预期就此固化。这是一种微妙的平 衡。"这位里士满联储行长预计，减税与放宽监管举措将在今年拉动经济增长；同时，随着政府停摆结 束后官方数据恢复发布，政策制定者将在未来数月内对经济状况形成更清晰的认知。他表示："我期待 在未来数周，随着可靠明晰的经济数据陆续出炉，我们能深入研判、掌握更多信息。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy tools are categorized into general, selective, and unconventional tools, primarily aimed at regulating market liquidity, influencing interest rates, and subsequently controlling economic growth and inflation [1]. Group 1: General Monetary Policy Tools - These tools, known as the "three major weapons," affect the entire financial market, influencing overall credit scale and money supply [2]. - The reserve requirement ratio refers to the proportion of deposits that financial institutions must hold as reserves with the central bank. An increase in this ratio tightens market liquidity, while a decrease releases liquidity and lowers financing costs for businesses and households [3]. - The rediscount rate is the interest rate at which commercial banks can discount their bills with the central bank. An increase in this rate raises the financing costs for banks, leading them to tighten credit, while a decrease lowers costs and encourages lending [4]. - Open market operations involve the central bank buying and selling securities (such as government bonds) in the financial market to adjust money supply and market interest rates. Buying securities injects funds into the market, while selling them withdraws funds, thus tightening liquidity. This is the most commonly used and flexible monetary policy tool [5]. Group 2: Selective Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are more targeted, primarily regulating credit and funding flows in specific areas [6]. - Consumer credit control involves restrictions on down payment ratios and repayment terms for consumer installment purchases, thereby regulating the scale of consumer credit and influencing consumption demand [7]. - Securities market credit control adjusts the margin requirements for margin trading, controlling the scale of credit funds flowing into the securities market to prevent excessive speculation [8]. - Real estate credit control manages the down payment ratios and interest rates for real estate loans issued by financial institutions, regulating the flow of funds into the real estate market and stabilizing prices [9]. Group 3: Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are employed when conventional tools become ineffective (e.g., when benchmark interest rates approach zero) to address special economic conditions [10]. - Quantitative easing (QE) involves the central bank purchasing large amounts of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the market, lowering long-term interest rates and stimulating economic recovery. Conversely, quantitative tightening (QT) involves reducing or halting reinvestment in maturing bonds or directly selling assets to withdraw liquidity from the market and tighten money supply [11]. - Forward guidance is a strategy where the central bank publicly communicates the future direction of monetary policy (e.g., maintaining interest rates for a certain period) to guide market expectations and stabilize investment and consumption behaviors of economic entities [12].

格隆汇1月5日｜Tikehau Capital市场策略总监Raphael Thuin在报告中指出，市场对美国罢黜委内瑞拉总 统马杜罗的反应相对冷静，这反映了近年来投资者的一种趋势：即在很大程度上忽略地缘政治的不确定 性。Thuin表示，近年来投资者已学会跳出地缘政治风险，将注意力集中在经济增长、通胀和企业盈利 等基本面驱动因素上，"委内瑞拉最近的事态发展似乎就符合这一模式"。他认为，委内瑞拉对全球的影 响有限，且跨国公司在该国的风险敞口相对较小。他指出，更广泛市场的长期前景可能不会受到影响， 但政权更迭确实会引入新的不确定性。Tikehau将密切关注任何溢出效应或地缘政治紧张局势升级的迹 象。 ...

Core Insights - Poland is projected to be the fastest-growing large economy in the EU, with a GDP growth rate of 3.5% by 2026, significantly higher than the EU average of approximately 1.4% [1][3] - The country is expected to become the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe and the sixth largest in the EU, with a GDP of $1.04 trillion by 2025 [2] - Poland's economic growth is driven by a diverse industrial base and a strong domestic market, with significant contributions from sectors such as services, industry, and IT [5][6] Economic Performance - Poland's GDP growth rates are forecasted at 2.9% for 2024, 3.2% for 2025, and 3.5% for 2026, with inflation expected to decrease to 2.8% and unemployment remaining low at around 5% [3] - The country has seen a substantial increase in GDP per capita across various provinces, with some regions surpassing Germany's least developed areas [4] Industrial Structure - The economy is characterized by a diverse range of industries, including agriculture, mining, automotive, electronics, and IT, with services accounting for about 60% of GDP [5] - Poland's export-to-GDP ratio has increased from 27% in 2000 to 63% in 2022, indicating a strong reliance on exports, although this is expected to decrease to 52% in 2024 [5][6] Domestic Market and Labor Force - Poland benefits from a large, well-educated workforce, with over 44% of young adults holding higher education degrees, contributing to a robust domestic market [6] - The economy is less dependent on exports compared to smaller economies, allowing it to better withstand global economic shocks [7] Foreign Investment and EU Integration - Poland has attracted significant foreign investment due to its stable economic environment and favorable business conditions, being one of the largest beneficiaries of EU funding [8][9] - The integration into the EU has facilitated trade and investment, creating a large economic zone that enhances Poland's growth prospects [9] Trade Relations with China - Poland is the largest trading partner of China in Central and Eastern Europe, with increasing cooperation in various sectors, including automotive and electronics [10][11] - The presence of Chinese brands in Poland is growing, with significant exports of automotive parts and consumer electronics [11] Future Challenges - Despite its strong economic performance, Poland faces challenges such as potential economic repercussions from Germany's economic slowdown and demographic issues related to an aging population [13][14] - However, Poland's balanced approach to exports, domestic consumption, and EU-funded investments is expected to sustain its economic growth [14]