Group 1 - The performance of US stocks has lagged behind other major markets in 2023, with the Dow Jones up 3.64%, Nasdaq up 5.48%, and S&P 500 up 5.50%, while the KOSPI index surged 28.04% [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose nearly 14% in the first half of the year, marking its best performance since 2017, indicating a shift of funds from the US to Europe and China [1] - The US dollar index experienced its largest decline in over 50 years, dropping more than 10% in the first half of the year, which has negatively impacted the performance of US stocks [1] Group 2 - The IMF has downgraded the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with the US GDP growth revised down from 2.7% to 1.8% and the Eurozone GDP growth from 1% to 0.8% [2] - The proposed "Beautiful Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulus effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure [2] - The trade policies of the US are expected to slow global economic growth and reignite inflation, with a 40% chance of recession in the US in the second half of the year [7] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current US trade policies are undermining the capital circulation system, leading to a decline in confidence in US assets and a shift towards lower-valued markets in Europe and China [3][4] - The S&P 500 index's forward P/E ratio has risen above 23, indicating that US stocks may be overvalued compared to earnings expectations, which could deter investor interest [5] - The upcoming earnings season for US stocks is expected to be challenging, with potential profit margin pressures due to increased tariffs [7] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a shift towards regionalization, with central banks diversifying their foreign exchange reserves and reassessing traditional trade and supply chain structures [3] - Non-US assets have received strong liquidity support in the first half of the year, with international funds favoring markets in China and Europe [10] - The outlook for the Chinese equity market remains positive, with expectations of revenue and profit growth for the CSI 300 index in 2025 and 2026 [10]

大型科技公司重新掌权了吗? 市场风格切换也值得警惕。在年初回调后，科技股正重新主导行情，二季度标普500科技板块以15%涨幅领跑，七大科技巨头贡献了指数近四成涨幅。这种 集中度引发担忧：标普500等权重指数同期仅上涨4%，显示多数个股并未跟上头部公司步伐。西北共同财富管理首席投资官布伦特·舒特指出，市场若要延 续升势，必须看到更广泛的参与度。 智通财经APP获悉，纽约时间7月1日，美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确定性因素正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。 尽管标普500指数年内仍维持5%以上的涨幅，但4月因特朗普政府"关税风暴"引发的市场恐慌至今令人心有余悸。当前投资者正屏息关注六大关键变量，这 些因素或将决定美股能否守住当前高位。 关税会产生影响吗?还是只会起到震慑作用? 首当其冲的仍是关税政策走向。虽然市场对最极端情景的担忧有所缓解，但7月9日这个关键时间节点正步步逼近，美国与多国的贸易谈判结果可能引发新一 轮市场波动。高盛最新测算显示，即便部分严苛关税措施被取消，已落地的政策仍推动美国实际关税税率从年初3%攀升至13%，这或将持续推高通胀压力 并侵蚀企业利润。即将于本月下 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%, while the total market turnover was 16,231 billion yuan, a decrease of 163 billion yuan from the previous day [1][17]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector reached new highs, with major banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others continuing to climb. The banking sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.94%, leading among 31 primary industries [3]. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened by purchasing 9.42 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate triggering the "weak side convertibility guarantee." This marked the first intervention since May 2023, resulting in a decrease in the banking system's liquidity to 164.098 billion HKD [4][6]. Hibor Rate Movements - Following the HKMA's intervention, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) saw a significant rise, with the overnight Hibor increasing from 0.02071% to 0.03750%, marking a daily increase of 1.688 basis points. The one-month Hibor also rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.96554% [4][6]. ETF Market Activity - The market saw significant inflows into several ETFs, particularly in the financial sector, with notable net inflows into the China A500 ETF and various Hong Kong financial ETFs. The total net inflow for the week into the China A500 ETF was 78.32 billion yuan [20][22]. U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, with several officials indicating support for a rate cut in July. The upcoming economic data for June and July will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions [11][12][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This year, global funds have generally flowed out of US dollar assets and returned to their home markets. The spill - over of US dollar liquidity has led non - US markets to generally outperform US assets. However, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the "US Exceptionalism," there are new changes in global capital flows. After the cooling of the Middle East situation, funds temporarily flow back to risk assets. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may continue to support the performance of the US stock market. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, the cooling of geopolitical conflicts and the dovish stance of the Fed have led to the repair of global risk appetite and the rise of easing expectations. Equity assets may be favorable in the short term, while crude oil and gold may face some correction pressure [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Capital Flow and Asset Performance - Global funds have flowed out of US dollar assets this year. According to TIC data, in April, overseas investors reduced their holdings of medium - and long - term securities by $88.9 billion, including $59.2 billion in US stocks and $46 billion in US Treasury bonds. Canada and the Chinese mainland had relatively large reduction scales [8]. - European stocks are the most benefited assets under the weak US dollar due to friendly policies, low - level fundamental repair, and frequent capital rotation between the US and Europe. European investors have continuously reduced their holdings of US stocks and returned to their home markets this year. The recent 3 - month rolling net capital inflow into European stocks has reached a high since 2010 [12]. - Multiple funds support the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market, including foreign capital inflows, southbound funds, and the liquidity injection by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. The recent rise of the Hong Kong stock market is more of a valuation repair due to abundant liquidity. However, if the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but the long - term impact is limited [14][29]. - A - share market has abundant off - market liquidity and low opportunity cost, with active on - market funds. Since April, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the market is mainly in a state of stock game. Recently, large - finance (high - dividend), small - cap stocks have led the rise, and themes are active [21][31]. Short - term Changes in Global Liquidity - The cooling of the Middle East situation has improved market risk appetite, and funds have temporarily flowed back to risk assets. Risk - aversion assets are under pressure, and the focus will shift to fundamental data and the Fed's monetary policy stance [23]. - The "US Exceptionalism" has recovered. The prospect of a soft landing in the fundamentals and the resurgence of the AI narrative may support the US stock market. "De - dollarization" may be postponed. In the short term, the net inflow of funds into US stocks has stabilized and rebounded, and the inflow of funds into US Treasury bonds is generally stable [23]. - The Hong Kong dollar has touched the weak - side guarantee. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority recovers Hong Kong dollar liquidity, it may put short - term pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. The subsequent depreciation pressure of the Hong Kong dollar may come from the appreciation of the US dollar and capital outflows from the Hong Kong stock market [29]. Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Port throughput has slightly converged, the supply and demand in the construction industry are weak, and housing prices need to stabilize. Externally, the US consumption and real estate sectors face downward pressure, the impact of tariffs is gradually emerging, economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has raised its inflation forecast [38][39]. - Overseas: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month (previous value - 0.1%), industrial output decreased by 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.1%), and the housing start - up rate in May dropped to a five - year low, down 9.8%. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, and raised the core inflation forecast to 3.1% [39]. Configuration Suggestions - For large - category assets: In the short term, equity assets may be favorable, while crude oil and gold may face correction pressure [34]. - For the domestic bond market: The recent keyword is more upward direction, limited space, and emphasis on micro - operations. The yield of 10 - year Chinese bonds is approaching 1.6%, and small opportunities can be grasped from curve convex points and "micro - operations" [34]. - For the domestic stock market: Policy strength and performance drivers need to be realized. Continue to trade along industrial hotspots, policy expectations, and "high - to - low" rotations [35]. - For US Treasury bonds: The cooling of the US economy may bring short - term opportunities for US Treasury bonds. It is recommended to lay out 10 - year US Treasury bonds when the yield is above 4.5%, and the 2 - year variety is relatively more stable [35]. - For US stocks: Although the short - term sentiment is strong, the valuation has been repaired to a historical high, and there is still downward pressure on earnings. Pay attention to the return of the AI narrative and avoid tariff - affected sectors [36]. - For commodities: After the supply concerns are alleviated, commodities are generally under pressure and will gradually return to fundamental pricing. It is recommended to buy gold on dips, and crude oil is expected to be weak in the short term. It is judged that copper is better than oil [36]. Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: June official manufacturing PMI, June Caixin manufacturing PMI, and the Summer Davos Forum [52]. - Overseas: A series of US economic data including May new home sales, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, etc., as well as economic data from the eurozone, the UK, and Japan [54].

受美国总统特朗普"解放日"政策影响，澳洲散户投资者正纷纷撤离美国市场，将资 金转向"稳定"经济 体。 （图片来源：News） 投资平台eToro的最新散户数据显示，这一趋势反映出全球经济不确定性加剧，37% 的澳洲投资者将全 球经济列为投资的最大威胁——这是自2022年第二季度以来的最高 纪录。 eToro对14个国家（含1000名澳洲投资者）的1万名散户调查显示，美国市场吸引力 锐减。 该平台董事总经理Robert Francis指出，特朗普政策与美股高估值叠加，使 散户对全球最大市场的投资 前景持怀疑态度。 "随着特朗普就职，人们开始意识到'美国例外论'已不如一两年前，这带来了大量 不确定性。" 从委内瑞拉移居悉尼的投资者Rayeiris Maduro Rondon认为，"美国例 外论"已进入"调整期"。 澳洲投资者正增加本土市场敞口。eToro数据显示，35%的澳洲散户对投资组合更谨 慎，28%感到焦 虑，但24%对市场波动持乐观态度，超过四分之一的投资者将10%以 内的回调视为"逢低买入"机会。 市场分析师Josh Gilbert表示："许多人将回调视为机会，这体现了对市场长期韧 性的信心，4月以来全 ...

在市场质疑美元稳定性的同时，欧元兑日元汇率的波幅相对于美元兑日元货币对的波动而言，正处于近 四年来的最平静水平。 "市场认为，在负面市场冲击中，美元兑日元的波动性将大于欧元兑日元，这与市场过去处理这些事件 的方式正好相反，"Brennan说。"如果真是这种想法，那就意味着市场认为欧元比美元更具避险功能。" 由于交易员因不可预测的美国政策风险而避开美元，欧元正在全球货币期权市场中扮演起更重要的角 色。 交易量出现了明显转变。根据美国存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据，对比2024年最后五个月，今 年前五个月与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约中，约有15%至30%转向了欧元。还有迹象表明，欧元正被用 作避风港，这在传统上是美元的角色。 虽然在日交易额高达7.5万亿美元的外汇市场中，涉及美元的交易仍占主导地位，但这可能是美元作为 世界储备货币正面临更激烈竞争的早期证据。在美元经历多年来最大幅度的暴跌后，交易员们正在规避 它，而欧元似乎成了主要受益者，因为该地区的市场正受益于数十亿的政府刺激支出。 "如果我们正在进入一个欧洲资金流向更重要的环境，那么我们可能也正在进入一个由欧元货币对驱动 一切的环境，"法国巴黎银行的期权策 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent 90-day suspension of mutual tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to reduce the risks of trade disruptions and rising unemployment, leading to a lowered probability of economic recession [1] - The investment stance reflects high geopolitical uncertainty, with the theme of "market differentiation" becoming a dominant trend this year [1] - The company has reduced concentrated allocations in U.S. equities and shifted towards a more geographically diversified asset allocation strategy, favoring European markets and increasing holdings in Japanese and emerging market assets [1] Group 2 - Outside the U.S., inflationary pressures are relatively mild, leading to a preference for German government bonds while being bearish on U.S. government bonds [2] - Gold is recommended as a core tool for diversifying asset allocation [2] - The outlook for the energy sector remains cautious to negative due to continuous supply growth, and there is a cautious stance on the U.S. credit market, particularly high-yield bonds [2]

Group 1 - The current weak dollar period is significantly alleviating the pressure on oil-importing countries despite renewed tensions in the Middle East causing energy price fluctuations [1][3] - Global crude oil prices, priced in dollars, have risen approximately 14% since early last week, but remain about 7% lower year-on-year, indicating that the situation has not reached a "crisis" level [1][3] - The euro has appreciated by 12% against the dollar this year, resulting in a milder impact on Europe, where Brent crude oil prices in euros are down 12% for 2025 and 20% year-on-year [1][3] Group 2 - The depreciation of the dollar provides a crucial buffer for oil-importing countries, mitigating the direct impact of rising oil prices and limiting broader economic repercussions [3][4] - If the dollar continues to weaken, it will effectively reduce the relative impact of energy price volatility on the European economy, potentially supporting its performance compared to the U.S. this year [3][4] - A decline in energy prices alongside a persistently weak dollar may increase pressure on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates to avoid inflation rates falling significantly below the 2% policy target [3][4] Group 3 - The relationship between the dollar and oil prices has become increasingly unstable, as foreign investors reassess their dollar asset allocations due to trade wars and domestic turmoil [4][6] - Traditionally, the dollar has served as a safe-haven asset, but it appears to have lost this status during periods of uncertainty, with the dollar and stocks/bonds moving in tandem downwards in April [6][9] - The causal relationship between oil prices and the dollar has inverted in recent years, with oil price surges leading to aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, followed by a period of easing as oil prices and inflation declined [9][10]

一年一度陆家嘴论坛前夕，橡树资本联合创始人和联席董事长霍华德·马克斯 在 接受 中国基 金报记者 独家采访时表示，债券市场投资者不喜欢关税政策造成的混乱，预计关税政策模糊 性难以消退。他认为，投资者适度降低对美国资产的配置是合理的。 霍华德·马克斯： 因为事态持续变化，所以它不可能完全消化。当我们说市场"已经定 价"时，指的是市场对关税最终结果的定价。但现实是，没有人能够准确预测六个月 以及 两 年后的关税政策。既然如此，市场怎么可能做到完全定价呢？事实上，关税政策刚刚宣布 时，股票和债券市场的反应都非常负面，随后股市却反弹。这是否意味着关税的影响已经被 市场忽略？还是说市场认为这些影响最终会是良性的？我们无法轻易下结论。 中国基金报： 美国股市在所谓的"大解放日"之后反弹。有人认为，这说明"美国例外论"并未 彻底衰落。一方面，美国仍然拥有强大的创新能力 ； 另一方面，它拥有"七巨头"这样盈利能 力极强的公司。你怎么看"美国例外论"？ 霍华德·马克斯： 谈论"美国例外论"彻底衰落可能并不恰当。过去80 年 到100年间，美国在 全球的卓越地位是由多方面因素共同造就的。创新能力是其中之一，还包括自由市场机制、 ...

【导读】霍华德·马克斯：全球投资者应充分理解中国务实的运作方式，信任中国的实践智慧 霍华德·马克斯：这一"警告"来自债券市场，该市场的投资者不喜欢关税政策造成的混乱。商业活动最害怕的就是不确定性，而现在的关税政策却充满了 变数——美国一会儿宣布加征关税，一会儿宣布取消，一会儿暂停，一会儿又恢复，一会儿又降低。政策反复无常，企业难以制定长期计划。进口商品的 成本上升，而企业如果在美国国内建设工厂，它又无法预测四年后的关税政策。四年后，关税会变得更高，还是会降低，抑或会被完全取消？企业家无从 判断。如果无法预判关税的最终水平，那么，任何关于建厂的决策都变得极其困难。这种不确定性是最大的风险。 中国基金报：美国债券市场已经完全消化关税政策的影响了吗？ 霍华德·马克斯：因为事态持续变化，所以它不可能完全消化。当我们说市场"已经定价"时，指的是市场对关税最终结果的定价。但现实是，没有人能够 准确预测六个月以及两年后的关税政策。既然如此，市场怎么可能做到完全定价呢？事实上，关税政策刚刚宣布时，股票和债券市场的反应都非常负面， 随后股市却反弹。这是否意味着关税的影响已经被市场忽略？还是说市场认为这些影响最终会是良性的？我们 ...