仅用一个词就能定义2025年美国的消费者：K型分化。 2025年，经济上的贫富差距进一步拉大，处于收入分配中间阶层的群体因劳动力市场疲软倍感压力，同 时担忧关税引发通胀，导致市场情绪急剧恶化。 截至11月，失业率升至4.6%，创下四年新高。密歇根大学发布的年度最终消费者信心数据显示，近三 分之二的受访者预计未来一年失业率将上升。 密歇根大学消费者调查总监Joanne Hsu表示："尽管年末出现了一些改善迹象，但消费者信心仍比2024 年12月低了近30%，毕竟'钱包缩水'问题依然主导着消费者对经济的看法。" 美国银行研究所去年12月22日发布的一份报告显示，11月处于收入分配前三分之一的消费者支出同比增 长了4%，为四年来最快增速。而处于收入分配后三分之一的家庭，同期支出增长还不到1%。 Telsey Advisory的分析师Joe Feldman表示："大家都在想方设法省钱，过日子更加精打细算。" Feldman补充道："中低收入群体依然面临巨大压力，他们的关注点非常集中在满足日常需求的基础商品 上。" 沃尔玛在多份财报中形容美国消费者变得更加"挑剔"。而一元店连锁巨头则报告称，随着经济不确定性 迫使更多家 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美国经济有望在2026年连续第四年高于趋势增长率。 摄影/江玮 作为全球经济增长主要引擎的亚洲在2026年将持续当前的势头 文|《财经》记者江玮 编辑|苏琦 人工智能（AI）驱动的投资热潮加上更有支持力度的货币与财政政策将在2026年推动全球经济强劲增 长，野村在近日发布的2026年全球经济展望报告中指出。 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文（Rob Subbaraman）表示，这份报告被命名为 《迈向增长》，因为他们对明年全球经济的前景感到乐观。面对关税、政策不确定性和政治分化，全球 经济在2025年展现出了韧性，增长超出预期，这样的势头还将在2026年延续。报告预计，尽管与贸易相 关的干扰可能持续，2026年全球经济将显示出稳定和增长加速的迹象，但各地区的增长呈现不均衡格 局。 报告预计，美国经济将在发达市场中保持增长领先地位，实现2.4%的GDP（国内生产总值）增速。欧 元区经济可能在2026年下半年加速增长，预计增速为1.3%，尤其德国1万亿欧元的财政扩张计划将从下 半年开始提供实质性支持。 亚洲则将继续保持强劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the "K-shaped" economic recovery in the U.S., where high-income consumers continue to spend while middle and low-income consumers are forced to cut back on expenditures due to rising living costs [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - During the holiday season, 62% of American consumers reported experiencing additional financial pressure due to holiday spending, with 87% planning to shop primarily at discount stores [2]. - Interviews reveal that many consumers are significantly reducing their holiday budgets, with individuals like James Figueroa planning to spend around $1,200, which is much lower than previous years [4]. - The chairman of Kroger noted that middle and low-income consumers are more focused on the actual value of products, using coupons more frequently, and significantly reducing discretionary spending [4]. Group 2: Economic Inequality - The "K-shaped" economic divide is rooted in changes in wealth creation and distribution in the U.S. over the past decades, with the Gini coefficient for income inequality at its second-highest historical level [6]. - Wage growth, once a pathway to economic wealth, has stagnated, while income from investments and capital has seen exponential growth, leading to a decline in purchasing power for middle-income families [6]. - The economic structure has been shaped by globalization and tax policies favoring capital over labor, contributing to the current distribution patterns [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The number of millionaires in the U.S. has approached 24 million, with a daily increase of about 1,000 individuals, indicating a concentration of wealth among high-income households [8]. - Despite overall economic growth, reliance on specific sectors like finance and technology masks underlying issues in manufacturing and employment, with rising long-term unemployment and layoffs [8][10]. - Economic growth data may not accurately reflect the health of the economy, as excluding certain investments shows a much lower GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for the first half of 2025 [10]. Group 4: Political Implications - Economic anxiety is reshaping the political landscape, with rising living costs becoming a central issue in political discussions, particularly as it relates to the 2024 presidential election [11]. - A recent poll indicated that 20% of self-identified Republicans believe the government is responsible for the current economic situation, highlighting a bipartisan concern over living costs [11]. - The focus on affordability is expected to remain a key issue in upcoming elections, reflecting widespread public sentiment regarding economic pressures [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the "K-shaped" economic recovery in the U.S., where high-income consumers continue to spend while middle and low-income consumers are forced to cut back on expenditures due to rising living costs [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - During the holiday season, 62% of American consumers reported experiencing additional financial pressure due to holiday spending, with 87% planning to shop primarily at discount stores [2]. - Interviews reveal that many consumers are significantly reducing their holiday budgets, with individuals like James Figaro estimating a spending of $1,200, which is much lower than previous years [4]. - The chairman of Kroger noted that middle and low-income consumers are increasingly focused on the actual value of products, using coupons more frequently, and opting for store brands while cutting back on non-essential services [4]. Group 2: Economic Inequality - The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, is at its second-highest historical level in the U.S., indicating a significant and persistent issue of income inequality [5]. - Economic changes since the 1980s, including globalization and tax policies favoring capital over labor, have contributed to the current distribution of wealth, leading to a decline in the purchasing power of middle-income families [5]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. economy shows growth primarily in sectors like finance, healthcare, and technology, but this growth is not reflective of the overall economic health, as manufacturing is contracting and unemployment is rising [8]. - A study indicates that if specific technology infrastructure investments are excluded, the actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 could be as low as 0.1%, significantly below official figures [9]. Group 4: Political Implications - Economic anxiety is reshaping the political landscape, with rising living costs becoming a central issue for voters, influencing recent election outcomes [10]. - A poll indicated that 20% of self-identified Republicans believe the government is responsible for the current economic situation, highlighting a bipartisan concern over living costs [10]. Group 5: Social Issues - The article illustrates the stark contrast between the affluent and those struggling, with reports of long lines for free meals in New York, indicating that many working individuals are still unable to make ends meet [12][13]. - Data from the New York City homeless coalition shows that over 102,000 people are using shelters each night, with millions relying on food assistance programs, underscoring the severity of the economic divide [12].

转自：新华社 新华财经纽约12月30日电（记者杨士龙）圣诞节期间，纽约街头流光溢彩、人流如织，但在热闹节日表象下，却难掩这样一个现实：越来越多的美国普通消 费者不得不更谨慎地规划支出。 美国经济"K型"分化的现实，正在街头显现：高收入群体仍像往常一样消费，而中低收入消费者因生活成本显著提升而削减开支。 12月22日，游客在美国纽约时报广场2026年数字牌前留影。新华社记者张凤国摄 "头重脚轻的积木塔" "K型"分化原指在经济复苏中，不同社会阶层、行业或群体的经济状况呈现明显背离趋势。一些群体经济状况快速改善，而另一些群体则持续恶化，形成类 似字母"K"的走势。 "K型"经济概念的推广者、威廉与玛丽学院经济学者彼得·阿特沃特将当前美国经济状况比喻为"头重脚轻的积木塔"："顶端（富裕阶层的消费和资产价值） 不断加高，而基础（普通家庭的购买力和经济安全感）却日益脆弱。整个结构虽然表面壮观，但稳定性正持续下降。" 美国银行11月发布的2025年假日消费调查报告显示，在当前经济环境下，62%的美国消费者会因假日消费而承受额外财务压力；高达87%的人计划主要在折 扣店等优惠渠道完成节日购物。 12月18日，一名男子在美国 ...

Economic Growth and AI - The AI trade is a significant driver of GDP growth in recent quarters, and this trend is expected to continue, particularly benefiting the top 10% of wage earners, which may lead to a "K-shaped" economy narrative in 2026 [2] Interest Rates and Investment Strategies - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease more rapidly than many economists predict, which will be a crucial factor for investors to monitor [3] - As interest rates decline, bond prices are expected to rise due to their inverse correlation, making bonds an attractive investment option [8][9] Bonds as a Safe Investment - Bonds, particularly Treasury-focused ETFs, offer diversification and lower risk, making them suitable for investors looking to protect their portfolios amid potential economic downturns [5][6] - Investing in a diversified portfolio of bonds can yield significant returns in a down or sideways market, especially as rates decrease [8][9]

转自：中国日报网 中国日报网12月29日电 美联社近日报道指出，由于对物价持续攀升及美国政府全面关税政策的影响深感忧虑，美国消费者对经济的信心出现动 摇。世界大型企业研究会12月23日发布的调查数据显示，12月美国消费者信心指数下降3.8点至89.1，已连续第5个月下滑。 美国"市场观察"网站刊文称，关税冲击、通胀加剧以及就业增长乏力给2025年的美国经济蒙上了厚厚的阴影。虽然第三季度美国经济以两年来 的最快速度增长，但调查却反映出了美国民众普遍的担忧和不满。 "市场观察"网站文章截图 文章认为，这种"脱节"源自关税、通胀等因素，部分原因还在于美国消费者把大部分的钱花在了必需品上，而没有花在想要的东西上。以第三 季度为例，大部分的支出用于医疗、保险、住房、水电费、汽油等价格大幅上涨的刚需领域；而第二季度消费支出的扩张，则很大程度上是美 国消费者为规避关税涨价而提前购买汽车等大件商品所致。 更令美国人恼火的是关税和通胀的叠加效应。今夏通胀本已趋缓，关税政策却再度推高物价。在承受了40年来最大的通胀飙升后，这波反弹进 一步加剧了美国人的负担。杰富瑞首席美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯指出："2024年通胀疲劳感本来正在 ...

UNforex 12月29日讯 在年末假期效应与"圣诞老人行情"共同作用下，全球金融市场继续在高位区间内 运行。随着交易日数量减少、流动性阶段性回落，市场在震荡中逐步消化政策预期与宏观基本面变化。 上周，美股在连续走强后涨势有所放缓，但整体结构并未出现明显松动，主要股指仍稳守历史高位附 近，风险偏好保持相对积极。 从具体表现来看，截至上周五收盘，标普500指数与道琼斯工业平均指数仍接近此前平安夜创下的纪录 区间。尽管假期因素限制了成交活跃度，但周度层面，美股整体表现依然稳健：标普500指数全周累计 上涨约2.3%，道指与纳斯达克综合指数分别录得约1.6%和2.5%的升幅，显示资金在年末阶段仍倾向于 维持既有配置结构。 进入缩短的假日交易周后，市场关注重点开始从年度表现切换至对中长期政策路径的评估。本周三即将 公布的ADP就业报告以及美联储12月FOMC会议纪要，被普遍视为观察政策取向的重要窗口。相关信息 将为市场判断2026年货币政策节奏提供更多线索。 与此同时，美联储主席继任问题逐渐进入讨论区间。多家媒体指出，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月初 公布下一任美联储主席人选。当前被市场提及的潜在候选人包括白宫经济顾 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's two major misjudgments this year are overestimating the weakening of labor supply and the inflation level transmitted by tariffs, reflecting a lack of clarity regarding the "K-shaped economy" and the impact of AI [3][34] - The economic landscape shows a coexistence of "summer growth" and "winter employment," with increasing pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises and a growing consumption divide among different income levels [3][38] - The Fed's decisions have been influenced by a "data dependency syndrome," where both the Fed and the market rely heavily on upcoming data releases to adjust their views, indicating a diminishing effectiveness of experiential knowledge [3][34] Group 2 - The labor supply issue was first mentioned by Powell on June 18, 2025, attributing the decline to a significant drop in immigration numbers [7][39] - The perception that labor supply began to weaken only after Trump's presidency is a misconception, as the Biden administration had already tightened illegal immigration by May 2024 [9][39] - Despite expectations of a labor supply decrease due to reduced illegal immigration, the unemployment rate has continued to rise, indicating that labor supply has not significantly decreased compared to the previous two years [11][41] Group 3 - The Fed's misjudgment regarding labor supply is attributed to three objective factors: cautious evaluation of immigration policies, the ineffectiveness of Trump's policies in significantly altering labor supply, and a weakening of domestic demand [16][47] - The current decline in illegal immigration numbers makes it difficult to see new marginal changes in labor supply in the short term, suggesting a need to refocus on demand-side stimulus rather than supply-side measures [18][49] Group 4 - The overestimation of tariff-induced inflation is another misjudgment by the Fed, linked to the further weakening of the U.S. real economy [18][49] - As of November, the U.S. has collected an additional $164 billion in tariffs compared to the previous year, but many exemptions and "import rushes" mean that these tariffs are not entirely borne by U.S. importers [18][49] - The weak U.S. economy is reflected in various sectors, with hotel occupancy rates and restaurant profits showing declines, indicating that tariff-sensitive industries are absorbing some of the tariff increases [19][50][54] Group 5 - The burden of tariffs varies significantly across different categories of goods, and this could amplify economic fluctuations in 2026, with potential increases in layoffs if the economy weakens further [25][56] - As of the end of 2025, the focus has shifted from tariff inflation to the overall weakness of the real economy, raising concerns about potential misjudgments by the Fed in 2026 amid new variables like midterm elections and AI industry trends [29][60]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's two major misjudgments in 2025 were overestimating the weakening of labor supply and the inflation level transmitted by tariffs, reflecting a lack of clarity regarding the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the impact of AI [4][8]. Group 1: Labor Supply Weakness - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) first addressed labor supply issues in June 2025, attributing the decline in labor supply to significantly lower immigration numbers [11]. - There is a widespread misconception that anti-immigration policies began with Trump's administration; in reality, the Biden administration had already tightened illegal immigration by mid-2024 [11]. - Despite expectations, the U.S. unemployment rate began to rise again in June 2025, even as labor supply did not show significant reduction compared to previous trends [12]. - The anticipated reduction in labor supply due to immigration policies was only partially realized in swing states, with actual labor supply contraction occurring much later [14]. - Current non-farm employment growth is below 50,000 per month, indicating a significant decline in the "equilibrium employment level" [16]. - The Fed's misjudgment regarding labor supply is influenced by three objective factors: cautious evaluation of anti-immigration policies, the limited impact of these policies on domestic labor supply, and a weakening of real demand [19][20]. Group 2: Tariff-Induced Inflation - The Fed's overestimation of tariff-induced inflation is linked to the further weakening of the U.S. real economy, with Powell indicating a shift in perspective to view tariff impacts as a "one-time shock" [23]. - As of November, the U.S. had collected $164 billion in tariffs compared to the previous year, but many exemptions and "import rushes" mean that not all tariffs are borne by U.S. importers [23]. - The U.S. hotel industry has seen occupancy rates below 2024 levels for nine consecutive months, indicating a broader trend of weak consumer spending [24]. - Tariff-sensitive sectors have absorbed some of the tariff increases, leading to a decline in pre-tax profits for non-financial companies in the first quarter [27]. - Many U.S. companies are now viewing layoffs as a cost-control measure to offset tariff pressures, which could exacerbate economic downturns if the economy weakens further [30]. - The burden of tariffs varies significantly across different product categories, and this could amplify economic fluctuations in 2026, depending on the economic recovery or further downturns [33][36].