Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, specifically analyzing inflation trends in September 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI Trends**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed continued weakness in food prices, stabilizing at **0.7% MoM SAAR** after a sharp decline in July and August. A rebound in vegetable and fruit prices offset weaker pork prices due to slower supply adjustments meeting soft demand [2][3] 2. **Core CPI Performance**: Core CPI was supported by a base effect and gold prices, but month-over-month (MoM) figures softened notably. Home appliance prices decreased to **4.4% MoM SAAR** from a year-to-date strength of **9%**, while auto prices declined by **3% MoM SAAR** [3][11] 3. **PPI Analysis**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM turned slightly negative, averaging **0%** for midstream PPI. Stronger non-ferrous metals prices offset weaker steel products, while downstream PPI softened to **-0.2% MoM** led by food and durables [4][11] 4. **Outlook for Core CPI and PPI**: Core CPI is expected to improve slightly in October due to holiday impacts and gold prices, but a higher comparison base will constrain further upside in year-over-year (YoY) figures starting in November. PPI MoM averaged **0%** in 4Q24, indicating steady yet soft demand [5][11] Additional Important Insights 1. **Gold's Contribution**: Gold consumption accounts for **0.8%** of the core CPI basket, contributing approximately **0.3pp** to the **1.0% YoY** core CPI recorded in September [11] 2. **Comparison Base Shift**: The comparison base for core CPI and PPI is expected to shift from a tailwind to a headwind in 4Q25, which may impact future inflation metrics [11] 3. **Inflation Metrics Summary**: The summary table indicates that the YoY CPI was **-0.3%** in September, with food prices showing a significant decline of **-4.4%** MoM. The PPI YoY was reported at **-2.3%**, reflecting broader economic trends [7][11] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of inflation in China and its implications for the economy.

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year due to increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [2] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [2] - PPI's year-on-year decline continues to narrow, influenced by the high base effect and the promotion of "anti-involution" [2] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loans increased by 700 billion, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The credit growth indicates a potential upward trend for Q4, suggesting that the market is preparing for increased lending activity [3] Bond Market Overview - The overall CPI showed slight improvement in September, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months [4] - PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a decline in manufacturing prices [4] - The bond market outlook is optimistic due to a relatively loose funding environment, with a target yield for 10Y government bonds set at 1.7% [4] Banking Sector Analysis - In September, the intensity of loan issuance showed a seasonal rebound, with new social financing at 3.53 trillion, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 8.7% [6] - The M1 money supply continues to rebound, while M2 shows a slight decline due to a high base effect, indicating an increase in monetary activity [6] Company Research: Xinhan New Materials - Xinhan New Materials focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of aromatic ketone products, with projected net profits of 79 million, 85 million, and 100 million RMB for 2025-2027 [7] - The company is expected to experience high growth due to new capacity coming online, leading to an "overweight" rating [7] Company Research: Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading brand in the affordable dining sector, aligning with consumer trends for quality and price [8] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 750 million, 922 million, and 1.132 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 RMB [8] - The company is rated "overweight" due to its supply chain advantages and potential for margin improvement [8]

Inflation Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than the Wind consensus expectation, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August[1] - The CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, also up 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI year-on-year, with a decline of 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from August[14] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by production materials, which fell by 2.4% year-on-year, while living materials decreased by 1.7%[14] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in PPI growth by Q2 2026[18] Sector-Specific Insights - Durable consumer goods prices showed a continuous upward trend, with household appliances and communication tools increasing by 5.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively[6] - The prices of precious metal consumer goods have seen significant increases due to rising international gold prices, while energy prices have been negatively impacted by falling international oil prices[7] - Seasonal factors have heavily influenced service prices, which saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%[6] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain an upward trend in Q4, influenced by low base effects and the impact of traditional consumption peaks combined with the release of government subsidies[7] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, contributing to a sustained increase in PPI growth[18] - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing international complexities[28]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight increase in September, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, the highest increase in 19 months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer prices [1][3] - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month, with seasonal price rises observed in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1][2] Group 2 - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - Improvements in supply-demand structure have led to price stabilization in certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, with some prices showing an upward trend [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market has contributed to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices in various sectors, with notable improvements in industries like coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the slight improvement in CPI and the continuous rise in core CPI, indicating a mixed economic outlook [4][5]. - In September 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, showing a 0.1 percentage point improvement from August, while the core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year [4][5]. - The PPI also showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% in September, compared to a 2.9% decline in August, indicating potential stabilization in industrial prices [4][6]. Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a divergence in yield trends, with short-term yields remaining stable while long-term yields have increased significantly, leading to a steeper yield curve [7]. - The current market conditions are viewed as optimistic for the bond market, with a recommendation to gradually shift from short to long duration investments, maintaining a 10Y government bond yield central fluctuation point at 1.7% [7]. - In the convertible bond market, the China Securities Convertible Bond Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 15.7% as of October 14, 2025, but current valuations are near historical highs, suggesting potential volatility ahead [8].

1. 公开市场操作 央行 公告称， 10 月 15 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 435 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 435 亿元，中标量 435 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日无 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 435 亿元。 2. 资金面 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 银行间市场周三资金面继续充沛无虞，存款类机构隔夜回购利率继续在 1.31% 低位盘整。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价在 1.3% 仍有巨量供给； 非银机构以信用债为抵押借入隔夜，报价低至 1.4% 下方。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.665% ，较上日变化不 大。交易员表示， 央行 月内再次进行买断式逆回购操作，同时例行公开市场操作亦维持小幅净投放，令流动性愈发充盈。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.15% 。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 位置，较上日持平。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行 ...

《 人民日报 》（ 2025年10月16日 06 版） (责编：袁勃、赵欣悦) 关注公众号：人民网财经 CPI同比下降0.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.1个百分点。分类别看，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1 个百分点，影响CPI同比下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。 PPI环比连续两个月持平。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，本月PPI环比运行的主要特点：一 是供需结构改善带动部分行业价格明显企稳，二是输入性因素影响国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。 本报北京10月15日电 （记者刘志强）15日，国家统计局发布的数据显示：9月份，消费市场运行总体平 稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上 涨1.0%，涨幅连续第五个月扩大。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平；同比下降2.3%，降 幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 CPI环比由上月持平转为上涨0.1%。其中，食品价格环比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，影响 CPI环比上涨约0.13个百分点。 ...

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) showed a slight increase in September, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, the highest increase in 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer prices [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.3%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The drop was primarily due to the "carryover effect" from previous price changes, with food prices falling by 4.4% [2][3] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, driven by seasonal rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fruits, lamb, and beef, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1][2] PPI Insights - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. This decline is attributed to a low comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies [3][4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, have shown price stabilization, with some experiencing price increases for two consecutive months [3][4] Market Dynamics - The ongoing construction of a unified national market has contributed to a narrowing of year-on-year price declines in various sectors. Improved market competition and capacity management have led to better price stability in industries like coal and photovoltaic equipment [4] - The upgrading of industrial structures and the release of consumer potential have driven price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing and specialized electronic materials, reflecting a shift towards higher-quality and upgraded consumption [4]

10月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，9月居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.3%， 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，涨幅连续第5个月扩大，为近19个月以来涨幅首次回到 1%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比继续持平，同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在解读数据时表示，9月CPI同比下降，主要是翘尾影响所致。分 类别看，食品和能源价格下降，其中，食品价格下降4.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，影响CPI同比 下降约0.83个百分点，是影响CPI同比下降的主要因素。9月PPI环比连续两个月持平。一是供需结构改 善带动部分行业价格明显企稳。二是受输入性因素影响，国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。国际油价下 行带动国内石油相关行业价格环比下降。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉记者，从传导机制看，PPIRM的下跌带动PPI下行，进而传导至 CPI。"反内卷"政策之下，工业品价格止跌企稳，PPIRM与PPI双双于7月见底，8月触底反弹，9月确认 拐点并延续反弹。"价格信号往往是经济的先行指标，国内促进物价稳步回升的努力初见成效，但要 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both showed a narrowing decline in September, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic demand and price stability [1][4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, reflecting effective domestic demand expansion policies [5][6] CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 4.4%, which was the main factor for the decline [2] - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 1% is the first time it has reached this level in 19 months, driven by rising prices in household appliances and mobile phones [6] PPI Analysis - The PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to August [4] - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines, indicating positive changes in market conditions [4] Seasonal Effects - Seasonal demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival contributed to a 0.7% month-on-month increase in food prices, with specific items like vegetables and fruits experiencing significant price rises [3] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that ongoing policies promoting consumption and domestic demand will continue to support a moderate recovery in core CPI, despite some external pressures on domestic prices [6]