2月11日，国家统计局数据显示，今年1月，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%。国家统计局城市司首席统计师 董莉娟表示，1月CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要原因为春节错月影响和国际油价变动导致的能源价格降幅扩大。值得注意的是，国家统计局发布以2025年为 基期的全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据，这是本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局城市司相关负责人表示， 本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 数据显示，今年1月，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.1%；食品价格下降0.7%，非食品价格上涨0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服务价格上涨0.1%。环比来看，1月，全国居民消费价格上涨0.2%。其中，城市上涨0.2%，农村上涨0.2%；食品价格持平，非食品价格上涨0.2%；消 费品价格上涨0.2%，服务价格上涨0.2%。 董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要受春节错月影响和国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大的影响。具体 ...

Group 1 - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline was narrower by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking a continuous rise for four months [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in six months, reflecting a sustained recovery in consumer demand [2] Group 2 - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries, with specific sectors like cement and lithium-ion battery manufacturing seeing price increases for four consecutive months [3] - The demand for digital technologies and artificial intelligence is driving price increases in the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector, which rose by 0.5% month-on-month [3] - The improvement in employment and income expectations, along with the strengthening of domestic demand, is expected to further support prices in related industries [3]

Group 1: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, a reduction in the decline by 0.5 percentage points compared to December 2025 [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - Key factors influencing PPI include the ongoing construction of a unified national market, which has led to price increases in certain industries such as cement and lithium-ion battery manufacturing, both rising by 0.1% month-on-month [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease in the growth rate by 0.6 percentage points compared to December 2025 [2] - The high base effect from January of the previous year, which included significant price increases in food and services due to the Spring Festival, contributed to the lower year-on-year growth [2] - Energy prices fell by 5.0% in January, which had a downward impact on the CPI, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the year-on-year decline, with the impact increasing by about 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change remained at 0.2%[2] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - The decline in CPI year-on-year was influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with fresh vegetable prices contributing a 0.27 percentage point decrease to the CPI[2] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI month-on-month growth of 0.2% was weaker than the average of 0.6% observed in years when the festival fell in mid to late February[2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.8%, leading to a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in food prices[2] PPI Insights - The PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, with a potential for year-on-year growth by mid-year if the monthly changes remain stable[2] - Key drivers for PPI improvement include rising prices in non-ferrous metals and a positive demand outlook in certain industries, despite some drag from the oil sector[2] Core CPI and Consumer Trends - The core CPI, excluding energy, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating strong performance in non-energy consumer goods[2] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 3.73% in January, marking the first monthly rise since July 2025, driven by a decrease in the breeding sow population[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, a sharper decline in real estate investment, and unexpected inflation in the U.S.[3]

春节因素拉低 1 月 CPI。去年春节在 1 月底，而今年春节在 2 月中旬，春 季错位因素导致今年 1 月 CPI 偏低。我们根据历史上春节位置和 1 月 CPI 对 1-2 月增速均值偏离估算，今年春节可能拉低了 1 月 CPI 同比增速 0.61 个百分点，剔除春节因素之后，今年 1 月 CPI 同比增速在 0.8%左右，与 上月基本持平，物价总体变化不大。1 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.8%，增速 较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，同样很大程度上受春节因素影响。 金价对 CPI 影响依然显著。1 月其他用品及服务行业同比增长 13.2%， 较 12 月增速下行 4.2 个百分点，但仍然保持高位且显著高于 CPI 中其 他分项和 CPI 整体增速。其他用品及服务行业持续高速增长可能继续 受到黄金价格上涨支撑，1 月国内黄金期货价格同比增长 68%，较 12 月 增速明显提高。按照居民消费结构测算 2025 年末该分项权重分别占 CPI 和核心 CPI 的 2.9%和 5.2%，剔除该分项后，1 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 同比分别为-0.2%和 0.1%，整体物价水平依然保持低位。 证券研究报告 | 固定 ...

Price Data Overview - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.44%[1] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.8% year-on-year[1] - PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, aligning with expectations[1] Key Insights - The lower-than-expected CPI in January is attributed to the late occurrence of the Spring Festival, affecting consumer demand[1] - CPI is expected to rise to around 1.4% year-on-year in February due to increased consumption during the Spring Festival[1] - Core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest since July of the previous year, indicating some price improvements in services and durable goods[1] Sector Analysis - Medical services prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[2] - Travel and related services have seen price increases, but the overall service CPI rose only by 0.2% month-on-month, below the historical average of 0.6%[2] - Durable goods prices have increased, driven by rising raw material costs and government policies aimed at stabilizing prices in certain sectors[2] Food and Energy Impact - Food CPI remained flat at 0%, marking the lowest level for January since 2001, primarily due to a 4.8% drop in vegetable prices[2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, contributing to a downward pressure on CPI, with gasoline prices down by 11.4%[2] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests a more optimistic price trend, with CPI expected to rise above 1% year-on-year starting in February and PPI potentially turning positive around mid-year[2] - The sustainability of price increases is a key concern, as the current price rise is largely supply-driven with limited demand-side improvements[2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - January CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The late timing of the Spring Festival this year had a minimal impact on January CPI, unlike last year when it began at the end of January[1] - Food CPI remained flat month-on-month in January, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%[6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the growth rate further expanding compared to the previous month[2] - Year-on-year PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the rate of decline has narrowed[2] - The prices of non-ferrous metals saw an increased month-on-month growth, while fuel and building materials prices fell[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to rebound in February due to the seasonal effects of the Spring Festival[2] - PPI growth momentum has improved significantly, with expectations for continued recovery this year[2] - By 2026, CPI growth is projected to rebound, and PPI year-on-year growth is expected to turn positive, leading to a notable acceleration in nominal GDP growth compared to 2025[2] Group 4: Risks - There are risks associated with declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]

经济研究·宏观快评 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月11日 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比显著走强 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2 月 11 日，国家统计局发布了 2026 年 1 月份全国 CPI 和 PPI 数据。2026 年 1 月，中国 CPI 同比+0.2%（前 值+0.8%），万得一致预期+0.15%，核心 CPI 同比+0.8%（前值+1.2%）；PPI 同比-1.4%（前值-1.9%），万 得一致预期-1.5%。 评论： 2026 年 1 月的通胀数据呈现出鲜明的分化特征：一方面，受春节错 ...

【博时市场点评2月11日】两市涨跌不一，创业板跌超1% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指跌超1%，两市成交较昨日继续缩量至略过2万亿。央行发布2025 年第四季度货币政策报告，重申继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活运用多种工具保持流动性充裕，为 A股奠定了较为稳定的宏观流动性基础。同时提出将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期收益率的变 化。政策核心是完善流动性管理框架、加强政策协同，而非直接进行大规模量化宽松。同时，报告表述 的细微变化显示政策更注重"精准滴灌"，短期降息概率或有所降低。1月物价数据公布，核心CPI温和上 涨的态势没有改变，PPI环比继续上涨，同比降幅延续收窄。数据释放了工业生产与居民消费两端动能 边际改善的积极信号，有助于提振企业盈利预期和整体市场信心。从当前市场行为看，资金或逐步从宏 观预期转向微观验证，市场整体有望在业绩验证中延续结构性行情。 2月10日，工业和信息化部等五部门联合发布《关于加强信息通信业能力建设 支撑低空基础设施发展的 实施意见》。文件设定了明确的发展目标：到2027年，全国低空公共航路地面移动通信网络覆盖率不低 于90%。为此，文件部署了推进低空通信网络覆盖、 ...