Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Real Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Real Trading Competition are entering the final month, with participants engaged in intense competition [1] - The overall market has shown a strong stock index and significant structural differentiation in commodity markets, influenced by macro policies, external environments, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - In April, the "tariff shock and market adjustment phase" saw U.S. tariffs on China causing market volatility, leading to short-term pressure on stock indices and declines in energy and some export-dependent commodities, while agricultural products like soybean meal surged due to supply concerns [1] - The "policy game and structural differentiation phase" from May to June indicated a recovery in domestic economic data and policy expectations supporting a rebound in stock indices, while commodity markets returned to fundamental supply-demand dynamics [1] - The "expectation reshaping and style rebalancing phase" in July and August revealed a "de-involution" trend in domestic commodity markets, with gold prices reflecting a redefinition by global investors [1] Participant Insights - As the competition nears its end, many varieties are experiencing a volatile trading environment, making it challenging for participants to navigate [2] - Key factors for participants to monitor include the sustainability of domestic policy effects, the performance of traditional peak seasons like "Golden September and Silver October," and the clarity of overseas policy environments, particularly regarding U.S. interest rate changes and U.S.-China trade relations [2] Competition Statistics - As of September 1, the global competition had 528 accounts with total participation funds of $43.9 million [3] - The "Futures Star Competition" and various awards have seen significant participation, with notable rankings in different categories, indicating a robust engagement in the trading community [3][4]

Report Information - Report Name: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 2, 2025 [2][12][22] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Indicators**: On September 1, the closing price of the main contract was 11,895, down 5 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week; the trading volume was 113,113, up 25,436 from the previous day but down 42,291 from the previous week; the open interest was 33,170, down 2,323 from the previous day and 13,535 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 12,440, up 180 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the virtual-to-real ratio was 13.33, down 1 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [3][13][23]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The butadiene-styrene basis was 5 (with a weekly increase of 215), the 8 - 9 monthly spread was 125 (up 20 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -20 (down 35 from the previous day and up 5 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,900/11,800 (down 50/up 0 from the previous day and up 0/50 from the previous week), the Transfar market price and Qilu ex - factory price were both 12,100 (unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week), CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500 (up 50 from the previous week), and CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700 (down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was -41 (down 76 from the previous day and 51 from the previous week), the on - disk processing profit was -46 (down 31 from the previous day and 166 from the previous week), the import profit was -86,106 (down 51 from the previous day and 1,141 from the previous week), and the export profit was -306 (up 222 from the previous day and 308 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Indicators**: The Shandong market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Jiangsu market price was 9,350 (down 50 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week), the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,500 (unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week), and CFR China was 1,095 (unchanged) [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit data was unavailable, the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 186 (down 50 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week), the import profit was 377 (down 50 from the previous day and 57 from the previous week), and the export profit was -975 (up 44 from the previous day and 230 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Downstream Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,075 (unchanged from the previous day and up 138 from the previous week), the ABS production profit data was unavailable, and the SBS 791 - H production profit was 1,090 (down 125 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. Spread Indicators - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The spread between Thai mixed rubber and butadiene rubber was 2,920 (up 70 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week), the spread between 3L and butadiene - styrene rubber was 2,650 (unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week) [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The spread between butadiene - styrene 1502 and 1712 was 1,050 (unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week) [3][13][23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 3、库存：9月1日LME锌库存较上日减少625吨至55875吨，9月1日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加0吨至37957吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡走弱。 9月1日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结镇 | 今开盘 | 優高价 | 盟低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The production rhythm in Brazil has improved in the first half of August, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, which is bearish for raw sugar. However, concerns about weather and domestic consumption improvement provide support. In China, import pressure is being realized, but the low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the warming up of transactions limit the downside space of the 2601 contract [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The pulp industry chain shows few positive signs. Supply pressure remains, and demand improvement is limited. The price has no strong upward drive, but the low valuation provides some support [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: The external market is in a long - short game, and the domestic market is affected by rumors of state reserve sales. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and concerns about the excellent fruit rate support the futures price [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: The inventory of jujubes is being depleted, and the market is moving towards the peak season. The futures price of the 2601 contract is affected by multiple factors, and investors can adopt different strategies according to their risk preferences [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - term long position due to the increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples and concerns about the excellent fruit rate. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions as the commodity sentiment is strong and the third - quarter is the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions as the estimated production in Brazil is lowered, and the downside space of the futures price is limited. The support range is 5530 - 5550, and the pressure range is 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be bearish in the range because the coniferous pulp price is below the cost, but the supply pressure remains, and the price of finished paper is low. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5200 - 5300. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rumor of state reserve sales lead to short - term price fluctuations [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple export volume was about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. The estimated national apple production is expected to decrease by 2.03% according to one survey and increase by 2.35% according to another [18]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. In the northwest production area, the early - maturing Fuji is priced high, and the quality is good, with active procurement by merchants. In the sales area, the arrival of goods has increased significantly, and the price is stable [19][20]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and some areas have experienced light rain. The daily arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable. The sample - point physical inventory has decreased [21]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The ISO reports that the 2025/26 sugar season will have a supply gap of only 23,100 tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August has increased significantly year - on - year. In China, the spot price of sugar in different regions is reported [24][25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported radiata pine has been reduced by $20 per ton, while most suppliers keep the price of coniferous pulp unchanged. Suzano has increased the price of broad - leaf pulp for September orders [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports and yarn exports have increased. Argentina's cotton exports have decreased in July, and the cumulative exports in the 2024/25 season have decreased year - on - year [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review The daily closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are reported [29][30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [32]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description about the basis situation, only figure references are provided [43][44][46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton are in a state of oscillation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [76]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [78][80][81].

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 16 元至 2375 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格上涨 5 元/吨至 2230 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 10689 手至 46.45 万手，空 头持仓减少 14866 手至 56.22 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 发 震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.8%，环比上涨 1.2%。海外甲醇开工率 71.9%，环 比+4.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 129.93 万吨，较上一期数据增加 22.33 万 吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 18.28 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 4.05 万吨。中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 33.34 万吨，较上期增加 2.26 万吨，环比涨 7.27%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 6.04 万吨，环比增加 3.21 万吨。样本企业订单待 21.70 万吨，较上期增加 0.96 万吨，环比涨 4.64%。烯烃开⼯率 86.4%，环⽐+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced the expansion of the trading scope for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFIIs), effective from September 10, 2025, allowing them to trade additional futures and options contracts, including crude oil asphalt futures and fuel oil options [1]. Group 1 - The SHFE will introduce new trading products for QFIIs and RQFIIs, including crude oil asphalt futures and options for fuel oil and pulp [1]. - Futures companies must comply with regulations for opening accounts for QFIIs and manage trading permissions according to the relevant guidelines [1]. - The trading of products under the suitability system for QFIIs will require futures companies to adhere to specific management measures [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. As traditional demand enters the peak season, attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, import profit is around -700, and exports have been good this year. PDH profit is around -400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated [7]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral [7]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2302 to 2222, and other regional prices also showed certain changes. Import profit remained at 322, and the daily change of盘面MTO profit was 0 [1]. - **Analysis**: Port inventory accumulation is obvious, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later, and attention should be paid to the relationship between supply and demand and inventory changes [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840 (except for a slight increase on August 27), and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as import profit, basis, and inventory also changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 71 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, external markets are stable, import profit has no further increase, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotations, and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene, and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as export profit, basis, and inventory all changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 46 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, imports are at a loss, and exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Supply pressure can be alleviated under certain conditions [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda, and prices of different production methods in various regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis all changed. The price of电石 - based PVC in East China dropped by 20 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: The basis is maintained at a certain level, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as cost, downstream performance, and the macro situation [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Rebar, Iron Ore Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the downward channel [7]. - Judgment Logic: Weekly rebar production is 2.2 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.04 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.69 million tons, and social inventory is 6.7 million tons [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Spot customers can consider implementing a short - hedging strategy step - by - step [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of rebar futures is in the first week of the downward channel [10]. - Spot Enterprise Hedging Suggestion: Spot customers can consider implementing a 70% short - hedging strategy step - by - step [11]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The main contract of iron ore futures is in the sideways consolidation stage [33]. - Judgment Logic: Last week, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.315 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.393 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 9.007 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13.763 million tons [33]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait for the completion of the sideways consolidation stage [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The mid - term price center of iron ore showed a gradual upward trend [36]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Be patient in the sideways range and wait for the new mid - term trend to become clear [36]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading consultation department of Great Wall Futures [38]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is mostly in the red, with soda ash futures showing a downward trend, opening at 1296.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 3.00% to a low of 1257.00 CNY/ton during the session [1] - East China Futures analysis indicates that the soda ash market is under pressure due to high supply and inventory coupled with weak demand, leading to a short-term oscillation in prices [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that while float glass production remains stable and inventory has slightly decreased, the overall domestic soda ash market is weak, with some production facilities gradually resuming operations, which is expected to increase overall output this week [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures reports that the current transaction volume in the Shihe market is average, with prices declining and basis strengthening, while high inventory levels are being reduced [2] - The upstream production is expected to maintain high levels, with few maintenance activities scheduled for September, and demand primarily driven by essential needs [2] - The strategy suggests a continued loose supply-demand balance, with resistance at the 5-day moving average, indicating a bearish outlook for any potential price rebounds [2]

镍不锈钢周报 缺乏单边驱动，关注宏观指引 20250831 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 李志超 从业资格证号：F3058314 投资咨询证号：Z0016270 | | | 1 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 核心策略要点 | 01 | 影响因素及分析 | 03 | | 03 | | 04 | | | 资讯数据 | 04 | 数据图表 | 07 | 2 02 影响因素分析 | 3 | | --- | 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 4 4 03 资讯和数据 03 资讯数据 5 03 资讯和数据 6 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 期镍运行 7 8 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 沪不锈钢运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 基差、价差 9 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 7 10 镍现货运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 11 镍现货运行 镍端库存 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 13 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 14 不锈钢库存 纯镍、镍铁产量和进出口 数据来源：钢联、i ...