交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 3 月 11 日 行业评级 领先 2 月乘用车销量同比增 26%，以旧换新政策+车企促销推动车市回暖 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | (当地货币) (当地货币) (报表货币) (报表货币) | | | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (倍) | (%) | | 比亚迪股份 | 1211 HK | 买入 | 379.22 | 350.20 | 23.261 | 28.629 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 3.11 | 2.42 | 0.1 | | 理想汽车 | 2015 HK | 买入 | 120.34 | 113 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong revenue growth of 13.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 347 billion, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1]. - The core product categories, particularly digital appliances, saw a robust growth of 15.8% year-on-year, driven by nationwide trade-in policies [1]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue in Q1 2025 due to the expansion of subsidized categories [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 increased by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, outperforming market expectations, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.3% [2]. - The company is entering the ride-hailing and food delivery sectors, which may enhance user engagement and purchase frequency, although increased subsidy investments could introduce uncertainty regarding overall profit margin improvements [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.66 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.05 billion in FY25E, reflecting a growth rate of 15.3% [4][6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.09 billion in FY25E, indicating a growth rate of 45.1% [4][6]. - The adjusted net profit margin is anticipated to stabilize around 4.1% for the full year, with medium to long-term targets relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price to HKD 217 / USD 56, corresponding to a 12x P/E for 2025E [3][5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue rebound with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in 4Q24, reaching RMB 347 billion, driven by strong performance in the electronics category due to national replacement policies [1][2]. - Service revenue also grew by 10.8% year-on-year, with advertising and logistics revenues increasing by 12.7% and 9.5%, respectively [1]. - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in product revenue into 1Q25, supported by the expansion of subsidized categories [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for 4Q24 was 15.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while adjusted net profit rose by 34% to RMB 11.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 4Q24 was 3.3%, with retail and logistics operating profit margins improving slightly to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively [2]. - The report forecasts a high single-digit profit margin for the full year, primarily relying on scale efficiencies and product mix optimization [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,084.7 billion in FY23 to RMB 1,250.1 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net profit expected to increase from RMB 35.2 billion in FY23 to RMB 51.1 billion in FY25E [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable profit margin of approximately 4.1% for the full year, with potential for improvement in the medium to long term [2][4]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is HKD 179, with a potential upside of 21% to the target price of HKD 217 [4][5]. - The report highlights a cash dividend of USD 1.5 billion, contributing to an annual shareholder return rate of over 5% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in inflation readings is attributed to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, and even after excluding this effect, the actual levels remain weak [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - In February, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by the high base effect from the previous year when the Spring Festival occurred in February [2][10]. - The food CPI fell by 0.5%, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 3.8% and 1.9% respectively, reflecting a supply increase due to favorable weather and improved livestock inventory [10][11]. - The core service CPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.8%, with travel-related prices dropping significantly, including a 22.6% decrease in airfares and a 9.6% drop in tourism prices [3][17]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in February, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, which was below market expectations [12][14]. - The rise in international oil prices contributed positively to the PPI, while coal prices fell significantly, leading to a negative impact on the overall PPI [12][13]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream industries continues to exert downward pressure on the PPI, with expectations of a relative "over-decline" phenomenon in the future [12][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply-side constraints on inflation are expected to persist in the short term, and the impact of consumption-boosting policies may limit inflation recovery [13]. - In March, the CPI is likely to rebound above zero as the Spring Festival effects dissipate, but the actual recovery may be moderate due to sufficient supply and the "old-for-new" policy suppressing core CPI [13][14]. - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to low global oil inventories and potential demand suppression from tariff policies, with a projected year-on-year PPI midpoint of -1.2% by 2025 [5][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD [4][14] Core Insights - JD reported a revenue of RMB 347 billion for Q4 FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.4%, exceeding expectations [8][9] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 11.3 billion, up 34.2% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [12][14] - The company is expanding its trade-in policy and investing in its merchant ecosystem, which is expected to drive demand in electrical appliance categories [14] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,084,662 million - 2024: RMB 1,158,819 million - 2025E: RMB 1,247,550 million - 2026E: RMB 1,310,176 million - 2027E: RMB 1,357,656 million - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are adjusted to: - 2025E: RMB 51,614 million - 2026E: RMB 55,319 million - 2027E: RMB 58,000 million [17][14] - The company achieved a gross margin of 15.3% and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.5% in Q4 FY24, both showing year-on-year improvements [10][12] Business Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - JD is entering the food delivery market to synergize with its core retail business, enhancing user engagement and expanding consumption scenarios [13][14] - The company has initiated a share repurchase program, buying back approximately 255 million Class A ordinary shares for a total of USD 3.6 billion, which is about 8.1% of its outstanding shares [13][14] - The platform is expected to continue investing in high-potential categories such as apparel and beauty, which will enhance user appeal and drive scale expansion [9][14]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is currently competing in three key areas: AI transformation, entering new market segments, and finding growth within its existing business. The underlying principle of these competitions is speed and efficiency [1]. Financial Performance - JD.com reported a revenue increase of 13.4% year-on-year to 347 billion yuan in Q4 2024. Operating profit under non-GAAP increased by 34.6% to 10.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin rising from 2.5% to 3% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The positive financial results were well-received in the capital markets, with JD.com's stock price rising over 6% in pre-market trading following the earnings announcement [1]. Market Expansion - JD.com officially entered the food delivery market shortly before the earnings report and plans to expand into local life group buying, travel, and moving services by early 2025. This move is seen as a direct competition with Meituan and Douyin in the local lifestyle market [1]. - The core e-commerce business, particularly in the 3C (computer, communication, consumer electronics) and daily necessities sectors, showed strong growth, with revenue growth in these categories reaching double digits year-on-year [4]. Marketing and User Growth - Marketing expenditures increased by 28.4% year-on-year to 13.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, marking the fastest growth in marketing spending since the pandemic began. This contrasts with a 10.3% decline in Q4 2022 and a 9.4% increase in Q4 2023 [4]. - The increase in marketing investment and favorable government policies, such as the trade-in program for digital products, significantly boosted user growth, with active user numbers and shopping frequency both achieving double-digit growth year-on-year [4]. Cost Control and Efficiency - JD.com managed to keep its general and administrative expenses and operating costs below the revenue growth rate, with increases of 3.2% and 11.9%, respectively. This led to a notable improvement in profit margins [5]. - The retail segment's operating profit grew by 44.6% year-on-year to 10.036 billion yuan, marking the fastest growth in operating profit for JD Retail in Q4 since the pandemic [5]. AI Transformation - JD.com is actively pushing for AI integration across its business, with over 800,000 merchants currently using AI tools such as digital humans and AI short videos [2]. - The company has implemented AI in over 100 scenarios internally, with more than 600,000 employees utilizing AI tools based on JD's language model [7]. - The launch of the upgraded digital human technology and various AI applications in e-commerce has significantly improved conversion rates, with some applications exceeding a 300% increase compared to market averages [8]. Competitive Landscape - JD.com is now in direct competition with Meituan and Douyin in the local lifestyle sector, with both companies expanding their service offerings. However, JD.com is still in the early stages of its food delivery and travel services [11]. - The company faces challenges in balancing its resources between its core e-commerce business and new ventures, especially as competitors like Pinduoduo and Alibaba intensify their efforts in the same markets [12][13].

【TrendForce】 3月5日，TrendForce集邦咨询公布了3月上旬面板价格预测。具体来看：国内以旧换新政策仍可刺激需求，电视面板价格维持涨 势；显示器面板价格在本月有望全面上涨；笔电面板价格则持续持平。 电视面板 TrendForce研究副总范博毓表示，3月份电视面板需求虽然仍维持稳定，但受到如关税问题的纷扰已有些许杂音出现，品牌客户目前仍按部就班依 照采购计划维持对面板的采购动能，但不排除一旦终端需求出现变化，将开始修正订单。 TrendForce研究副总范博毓指出，受益于电视面板价格持续上涨，以及面板厂的酝酿，显示器面板价格有望在3月份全面上涨。不过受到关税等问 题的影响，整体市场需求的不确定性正在增加中，因此面板厂与客户之间对于涨幅的想法仍有显著落差，仍需花时间作协商。 整体而言，观察3月份的显示器面板价格走势将呈现小幅度上涨趋势，Open Cell面板预估上涨0.1~0.2美元，而面板模组价格，21.5吋FHD预估上 涨0.1~0.2美元，23.8吋FHD预估上涨0.2~0.3美元，27吋FHD预估上涨0.1美元。 笔电面板 笔电面板需求近月表现相对冷静，关税问题对已布局完毕的品牌而言，冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Gree Electric Appliances [1][7][8] Core Insights - The recent increase in shareholding by Jinghai Internet Technology Development Co., Ltd. reflects the long-term confidence of distributors in the company's development [7] - Gree's air conditioning sales in January showed a slight underperformance compared to the overall market, but production is expected to return to double-digit growth from February to May due to seasonal demand and replacement policies [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 31.9 billion yuan, 35.1 billion yuan, and 38.6 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 10% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 205,018 million yuan, with a projected growth rate of 7.8% [5] - The expected net profit for 2024 is 31,927 million yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 7 [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 30.6% in 2024 to 31.4% in 2026 [5]