Market Review - Major indices experienced declines in the recent trading days from June 13 to June 19, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.19% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.95% [5] - The trading volume slightly decreased, with a total of 6.33 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily turnover of 1.27 trillion yuan, down by 99.55 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [13] Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, continuing to decline, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.6% [29] - Manufacturing investment rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, indicating a need for stabilization in the real estate market [30] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly rebounding by 1.3 percentage points, supported by policies and promotional events [32] Policy Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a "1+6" policy package aimed at further reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the introduction of a growth tier and the resumption of the fifth set of listing standards [34] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the future [35] Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by continued fluctuations, with external risks not fully dissipated and key variables needed to break the existing trend [38] - Investment opportunities are identified in the banking sector due to high dividend yields and defensive characteristics, as well as thematic investment opportunities in the TMT sector, biomedicine, and national defense industries [38]

2025 年下半年消费品投资策略 20250618 摘要 城镇化率成熟及居民消费时间受限是服务消费增长的制约因素，但鼓励 带薪休假等政策及年轻人就业偏好或将推动服务消费提升。 连续下跌四年的资产已充分反映悲观预期，一旦出现乐观因素，股价弹 性较大。2025 年上半年医药、社会服务等行业表现良好，房地产股票 指数和白酒板块存在修复绝对收益空间。 医药行业经历四年调整后表现火爆，创新药及相关产业链标的值得关注。 恒瑞医药、康缘药业和首药控股等公司具备增长潜力。 传媒领域首推潮玩方向，如泡泡玛特，预计 2025 年净利润可观，需求 端表现强劲，但需关注供应链问题及黄牛囤货对消费者长期购买热情的 影响。 下半年汽车行业需求受以旧换新政策和财政补贴影响，中高端市场关注 理想汽车和江淮汽车，中低端市场聚焦比亚迪、吉利等龙头企业。零部 件领域关注福耀玻璃、双环等公司。 纺织服装行业内需复苏是重要做多线索，下半年低基数窗口开启，推荐 高性能运动户外、折扣零售、睡眠经济、母婴消费以及国潮学院风 IP 高 端服饰等五个方向。 家电行业以旧换新政策打破悲观预期，内需市场延续高增长，出口方面 新兴市场弥补北美市场缺口。推荐海尔智家， ...

Summary of Weichai Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Heavy-duty truck and engine manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Projections - Weichai Power expects a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with potential for even higher growth rates in 2026 driven by: - Natural gas heavy-duty truck engines - Large-bore engines, particularly IDEC diesel generator applications - Growth in Kaiao logistics equipment business [2][3] Heavy-duty Truck Market Performance - The domestic heavy-duty truck market is projected to perform strongly in 2025, with May wholesale volume increasing by 12% year-on-year and terminal sales up by 18% - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive demand, with anticipated year-on-year growth exceeding 30% from April to September [2][4][5] Large-bore Diesel Generator Demand - There is a rapid growth in demand for large-bore diesel generators, with supply constraints leading to a price increase trend - The global IDEC diesel generator unit count is expected to grow from 15,000 units in 2024 to 30,000-40,000 units by 2030, effectively doubling the market space [2][6] Kaiao Subsidiary Impact - Kaiao's release of severance costs in Q1 is expected to lead to reduced expenses and improved operating profit margins - The subsidiary will benefit from reinvestment in European manufacturing, positively impacting Weichai Power's overall performance [2][7] Risks and Challenges - Weichai Power faces risks from slower-than-expected global economic growth and significant increases in raw material prices - These factors could negatively impact the company's operations and profitability, necessitating close monitoring and appropriate measures [4][8] Additional Important Insights - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy-duty trucks remains low, but with the implementation of subsidy policies, a positive outlook for the coming months is anticipated [2][5] - The tight supply in the large-bore engine market, with limited capacity growth from major players like Caterpillar, Cummins, and MTU, is expected to enhance profitability for Weichai Power [4][6]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on June 18, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 270 points or 1.1%, closing at 23,710 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.5%, closing at 5,214 points. The trading volume decreased to 181.9 billion HKD, the lowest since June 2, with a net inflow of 1.24 billion HKD from the Stock Connect [1][2] - The internal quality of the Hong Kong stock market weakened, with many previously strong stocks retreating. Major internet stocks like Tencent, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com saw declines ranging from 1.0% to 3.5%. Other sectors such as real estate, automotive, non-bank financials, oil, and telecommunications also experienced pullbacks [1][2] Macroeconomic Dynamics - The U.S. retail sales data for May showed mixed results, indicating a gradual slowdown in consumer spending. Overall retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month but increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The automotive sector was the largest drag, reflecting a decline in demand after consumers rushed to purchase vehicles in March to avoid tariffs [3] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales fell by 0.1% month-on-month but grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with e-commerce sales increasing by 8.3% year-on-year. This suggests that U.S. consumers are shifting from panic buying to a more cautious spending approach [3] Industry Dynamics - In the consumer sector, reports indicated that several regions are pausing or adjusting national subsidies for "trade-in" programs. The regulatory authorities announced a plan to allocate 300 billion RMB in special long-term bonds to support the trade-in program, with 162 billion RMB already distributed to local governments [4] - The automotive industry saw mixed performance, with companies like BYD and Geely declining by 1.1%, while others like Leap Motor and Xpeng saw increases of 0.9% to 1%. Li Auto and NIO experienced declines of 2% to 4% [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on Cao Cao Mobility (2643 HK) highlights its position as a ride-hailing platform incubated by Geely Group, operating in 136 cities with a total GTV of 17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [6][7] - The company has developed a decision-making system powered by AI, which efficiently matches orders and optimizes operations, leading to a reduction in reliance on driver subsidies. The percentage of adjusted driver income and subsidies to total service revenue is expected to decrease from 84.2% in 2022 to 79.0% in 2024 [7] - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) indicates a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca to utilize its AI-driven drug discovery platform, with an initial payment of 110 million USD (approximately 790 million RMB) and potential milestone payments totaling up to 1.62 billion USD [9][10] - The target price for CSPC has been raised to 8.15 HKD, reflecting an upward revision in profit forecasts, with a focus on the progress of the EGFR ADC project [12]

Core Points - The implementation of the "Two New" policy has significantly improved the efficiency of the vehicle sales process in Jiyuan, with tax authorities reducing the time required for vehicle dealer identity classification from two days to half a day [1] - The "old-for-new" electric bicycle program has gained popularity, but some dealers face challenges due to new regulations requiring the issuance of vehicle invoices for over-standard electric bicycles to register with public security [1][2] - The Jiyuan tax department has initiated an emergency response mechanism to address taxpayer concerns regarding the invoicing process, providing clear guidance on required documentation and streamlining the classification process [1][2] Industry Impact - The Jiyuan tax department has utilized tax big data to identify eligible taxpayers and has introduced a combination of "policy guidance + classified services" to assist businesses [2] - A total of over 50 electric vehicle dealers have received support from the tax department, leading to a more than 20% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle sales in the region [2]

汽车行业 超配（维持） 以旧换新政策持续刺激销量，智能化推动相关零部 件渗透率提升 投 汽车行业 2025 年中期投资策略 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com. S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 S0340124020014 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱： wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn 研 究 2025 年 6 月 18 日 资 策 略 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 分分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 业绩：2025Q1汽车行业延续增长趋势。汽车行业2025Q1实现营业收 入8979.62亿元，同比增长5.75%；实现归母净利润390.69亿元，同 比增长9.70%；实现扣非归母净 ...

Group 1 - Consumption is a key driver of economic growth, reflecting people's pursuit of a better life, with various regions leveraging policy guidance and resource integration to stimulate market vitality [1] - In Lanzhou's Qilihe District, the "ticket root economy" has been innovatively constructed, linking over 300 brand stores to provide additional discounts and services, enhancing overall consumption [3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted retail sales in various categories, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales increasing by 87.8%, communication equipment by 42.0%, and furniture by 22.6%, while new energy vehicle sales rose by 55.0% in the first four months of the year [3] Group 2 - In Tianshui's rural market, a "replacement" trend is emerging, with major appliance retailers offering multiple discounts, leading to a surge in consumer inquiries and purchases [5] - Tianshui's Qinzhou District is actively implementing the national "old-for-new" policy, expecting to drive consumption to exceed 200 million yuan for the year through combined policy and discount incentives [5] - The province is focusing on expanding consumer bases, enhancing service consumption, and promoting new and integrated consumption, with retail sales in the first four months showing a 24.1% year-on-year increase through online channels [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "trade-in for new" policy in China, particularly focusing on its impact on various sectors including automotive, home appliances, and digital products [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Changes**: The trade-in policy for 2025 has seen a significant increase in funding from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan, although the average monthly subsidy has decreased due to the extended usage period from four months to a full year [3][12]. - **Subsidy Scope Expansion**: The subsidy now includes vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards, as well as kitchen appliances, mobile devices, and increased subsidy frequency for certain products [3][6]. - **Regional Performance**: The policy has shown varied effectiveness across regions, with central and western areas like Chongqing and Jiangsu reporting higher growth rates in appliance and communication equipment sales compared to national averages [10][12]. - **Consumer Behavior**: The increase in consumer spending on home appliances is attributed to higher subsidy rates (15% to 20%) and the inclusion of small appliances in the subsidy range, contrasting with lower subsidy limits for vehicles and communication devices [9][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Funding Utilization**: Some regions have experienced a rapid depletion of subsidy funds, leading to a temporary halt in the program. For instance, Chongqing has exhausted its appliance subsidy funds, while Jiangsu has paused online subsidies [5][12]. - **Government Response**: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to monitor fund usage closely and may introduce additional funding measures if necessary. There is a commitment to ensure that the trade-in policy remains a long-term strategy despite regional pauses [7][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The rapid pace of fund utilization is driven by competitive mechanisms among local governments, which are incentivized to use funds quickly to secure more support from the central government [4][13]. Conclusion - The trade-in for new policy has been effective in stimulating consumption, particularly in the home appliance sector, while facing challenges in the automotive sector. The government is actively monitoring the situation and is prepared to adjust funding strategies to maintain the program's momentum [6][14].

本周公布的5月宏观经济数据显示出经济运行韧性足、结构持续改善，特别是当月社会消费品零售总额同比增 长6.4%，达到2024年初以来的最高水平，增速比上月加快1.3个百分点，远超市场预期。 强劲的消费增速反映出消费品以旧换新补贴和自5月中旬以来的"618"预热对消费的拉动效能显著。但与当月 社零高增速形成反差的是，近日公布的5月居民部门短期贷款却延续了4月的减少态势。其中，消费贷款余额5 月环比仅微增不到10亿元，同比减少近390亿元。 实际上，今年以来，社零增速的向上修复与同期消费贷余额就呈现出分化走势。一方面，社零的改善"国补"政 策功不可没，与"国补"政策相关的家电、通讯器材等零售额领跑其他品类；有机构测算，5月家电、汽车和通 讯器材类合计拉动社零增长超2个百分点。 另一方面，补贴政策在释放潜在消费需求的同时，消费者的消费观念也悄然生变。一些现象级的潮玩、演唱 会、体育赛事消费被人津津乐道。只不过，消费的回暖与消费贷余额的攀升不再同步发生，2024年1月金融机 构消费贷余额接近10.4万亿元高点后，就震荡下行。这也说明依靠金融杠杆提振消费更多是"锦上添花"，借贷 消费本质上是以未来收入作为担保的超前消费行 ...

Economic Overview - Hubei province's economy shows a stable and improving trend in the first five months of the year, with industrial production growing steadily, fixed asset investment expanding, and a vibrant consumer market [1][2] - The province's GDP growth is supported by high-quality development outcomes [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size in Hubei increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 1.8 percentage points [2] - High-tech manufacturing leads the growth with an added value increase of 17.4%, contributing 31.3% to the overall industrial growth [2] - Specific sectors such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing grew by 17.7%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 20.0% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Hubei grew by 6.2% year-on-year, exceeding the national growth rate by 2.5 percentage points [2] - Manufacturing investment surged by 12.6%, while infrastructure investment increased by 2.2% [3] - Private investment grew by 6.9%, and when excluding real estate development, it increased by 11.3% [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 10,798.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, outpacing the national average by 2.7 percentage points [4] - The "trade-in" policy has stimulated consumption, with retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 32.8% and furniture by 37.5% [4] - Online retail sales grew by 26.8%, indicating a robust shift towards e-commerce [4] Foreign Trade Performance - Hubei's total import and export value reached 328.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, significantly higher than the national average of 24.4% [4] - Exports amounted to 238.37 billion yuan, growing by 36.3%, while imports increased by 7.4% to 90.37 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Stability - Local general public budget revenue for the first five months was 189.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [5] - Financial institutions in Hubei reported a total deposit balance of 9,883.30 billion yuan, a growth of 9.9% compared to the beginning of the year [5]