本报记者 谭志娟 北京报道 降准又降息！ 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供 长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。 在业界看来，这是对4月25日政治局会议部署"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""适时降准降息"的 具体落实。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《中国经营报》记者表示，这是继2024年9月27日央行宣布降息降准以 来，两个货币政策"大招"再次同时出手，表明今年适度宽松的货币政策开始在稳增长方向全面发 力。"在当前时点宣布降息降准，能够有效激发企业和居民融资需求，扩投资促消费，提振市场信心， 是当前对冲外部波动最有力的手段之一。" 降准降息落地 受访专家认为，此次央行分别从数量、价格、结构三大方向入手，推出"降准+降息"等十项货币政策组 合，是自去年9月后再次实施较重大的货币政策调整。 经济学家、新质未来研究院院长张奥平接受记者采访时表示："这有助于大幅提振市场预期，稳定房地 产及资本市场，并精准支持当前经济运行重点领域与薄弱环节，包括科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等 重点方向。" 此次十项货币政策措施亮点较多，这是及时回应市场呼 ...

本报首席评论员胡蓉 当下，关税战冲击将逐步显现，全球经济的不确定性仍然阴云笼罩。越是此时，越需要增强国内经济发 展的确定性。 一季度，中国经济实现了5.4%的较快增长，出口、零售、投资等经济指标普遍改善。在刚刚过去的"五 一"假期，根据文化和旅游部的数据， 5月1日至5日国内旅游总人次达3.14亿，同比增长6.4%；国内旅 游收入1802.69亿元人民币，同比增长8%。延续这一良好态势十分重要。 金融是经济的血脉。金融市场于此时"十箭"齐发，释放的是强烈的稳增长和提振市场信心的信号。稳定 保持中国经济的发展节奏，不仅能更好应对眼前的变局，更是为了坚定走向未来。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 可以说，央行此次出手的广度和力度都十分罕见。十项举措不仅重在加大中长期流动性供给、保持市场 流动性充裕，也着眼降低贷款利息成本；重在刺激新增贷款的产生，也针对贷款存量结构的调整，如存 量房贷利率也将随着LPR利率下调，有利于降低居民支出成本、为消费释放更多现金流。 10项措施，每一项都构成利好，而央行选择"十箭"齐发，目的就是要发挥出协同与聚合效应，激发更大 的效果。放在更大层面看，金融市场十大举措又将与其他政策联手，发挥出更大 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the Hong Kong stock market (港股) in 2024, highlighting a recovery trend in overall earnings growth with a 1.2% increase in revenue and a 9.8% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Earnings Growth**: The second half of 2024 saw a significant acceleration in earnings, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1][6]. - **Key Sectors Driving Growth**: - The information technology sector benefited from breakthroughs in AI technology, with net profit growth of 77.4% in the software and services sub-sector and 76.4% in the technology hardware and equipment sub-sector [1][10]. - The financial sector, particularly the insurance industry, experienced a 70.8% increase in net profit, while diversified financial services saw a 20.5% growth [1][10]. - The healthcare sector, including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences, improved profitability by nearly 20 percentage points [1][10]. - **Struggling Sectors**: The consumer sector showed weak growth, with significant declines in return on equity (ROE) for household and personal products, and food retail. The optional consumer retail sub-sector's profit growth decreased by 36 percentage points, while media and consumer services saw declines of approximately 18% and 19% respectively [1][11]. Financial Metrics - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE for Hong Kong stocks rose to 7% in 2024, up from 6.7% in the first half of the year, but still below the average of around 10% since 2016. The DuPont analysis indicated that the increase in asset turnover was the primary driver of the ROE improvement [1][7][8]. - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth rate for Hong Kong stocks showed signs of bottoming out, with a 1.2% increase for the year, slightly down from 1.9% in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Comparative Analysis - **Performance vs. A-shares**: The earnings recovery speed of Hong Kong stocks is superior to that of A-shares, which reported negative growth rates of -0.2% for the year and -0.5% for the first half of 2025 in terms of revenue and -2.7% for both periods in net profit [4][6]. Future Outlook - **Support Factors for 2025**: The global technology cycle is expected to rebound, with the AI-driven industrial revolution continuing to support the performance of the information technology sector. Additionally, macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are anticipated to benefit mainland companies, which constitute over 60% of the market [4][12].

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The property management industry is experiencing a slowdown in managed scale growth, with a focus on improving project quality as leading companies exit low-quality projects and businesses [1][5] - By the end of 2024, the managed scale of China's property management industry is expected to reach 314.1 billion square meters, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% and a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The top 100 property management companies have seen a continuous decline in managed area growth for three consecutive years, with the managed area ratio dropping to 1.27 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Since 2021, the revenue growth of the top 100 property management companies has aligned with the growth in managed area, although revenue growth has decreased to single digits [2] - Among 18 sample property management companies, 11 are expected to see year-on-year revenue growth or reduced losses in 2024, with gross and net profit margins at their lowest levels in three years [2] - The overall cash position remains relatively strong, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in total bank deposits and cash, while the dividend payout ratio remains stable [2] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The concept of "good houses and good services" is becoming a core competitive advantage, prompting property management companies to launch new products and services to capture market share [3] - The AI era presents opportunities for property management companies to upgrade hardware and management software, leading to cost savings and improved management efficiency [3] - Urban renewal and old community renovation policies are expected to create opportunities for property management companies to enhance profitability in low-priced projects [3] Group 4: REITs Market Trends - Since early 2025, China's public REITs market has shown significant structural differentiation, with counter-cyclical sectors performing strongly while pro-cyclical sectors face pressure [4] - The CSI REITs total return index has increased by 8.5% year-to-date, but there are notable differences among sub-sectors [4] - The REITs market is expected to continue expanding and differentiating, driven by policy normalization and diversification of asset types, with a focus on new infrastructure and smart city projects [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The property management industry is shifting from scale expansion to a focus on service quality, with companies that provide high-quality services and value-added offerings likely to receive better support and development [5] - Recommended stocks include comprehensive development companies with a high proportion of non-residential business and lower reliance on real estate, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, and China Merchants Jinling [5] - Companies with strong sales and land acquisition capabilities in the real estate sector, such as Binjiang Service and Jianfa Property, are also highlighted [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to see performance recovery for general steel companies due to low inventory levels and stable profits from blast furnace steel production [2][3]. - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and overall profit declines, the steel demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase, supported by government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][5]. - The report highlights structural investment opportunities in the steel sector, particularly for companies with high gross margins and strong cost control capabilities [3][5]. Supply - As of May 2, 2025, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4542 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.07 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 16.7 tons [25]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.0%, up 0.40 percentage points week-on-week [25]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.90% [25]. Demand - The consumption of five major steel products was 9.709 million tons as of May 2, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [30]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 112,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.37% [35]. - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 1.934 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 44.0% [35]. Inventory - The social inventory of five major steel products was 10.237 million tons as of May 2, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 5.51% [43]. - The factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.234 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.08% [43]. Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for general steel was 3,483.3 yuan/ton as of April 30, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.14% [50]. - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 120 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 48.15% [60]. - The average cost of pig iron was 2,303 yuan/ton as of April 30, 2025, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.0 yuan [60].

证券研究报告 山东路桥 (000498 CH) Q1 业绩稳健，现金流显著改善 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布一季报：2025Q1 实现营收 97.6 亿元，同比+1.95%，归母净利 2.49 亿元，同比+1.89%。我们认为随着政策转向稳增长、化债加码，公司需求 和现金流有望迎来改善。4 月 29 日公司发布回购公告，拟回购股份注销， 回购金额不低于 5000 万至 1 亿元，股价不超过 8.68 元/股，预计回购股份 数量约 576~1152 万股，占总股本 0.37%~0.74%，公司对未来发展信心充 足，积极维护股东利益，维持"买入"。 25Q1 综合毛利率同比下滑，期间费用率优化，归母净利率持平 25Q1 公司综合毛利率为 11.5%，同比-0.63pct。期间费用率为 7.83%，同 比-0.19pct，其中管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 3.92%/1.83%/2.07%，同比 +0.11/-0.18/-0.11pct，管理费用同比+4.7%，费用率有所提 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - Macroeconomic policy involves counter-cyclical adjustments through monetary and fiscal policies, focusing on easing policies to stimulate the economy during downturns [1][4] - Continuous reliance on policy easing over extended periods is unsustainable, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [1] Group 2: Industry Policy - The real estate sector's ongoing decline poses significant challenges for economic stability, as it heavily influences both investment and consumption [2] - Industry policy is crucial for creating a favorable environment for emerging industries while stabilizing key sectors like real estate that have substantial economic impacts [2][3] - Current emerging industries, such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, are not yet large enough to drive the next phase of economic growth [3] Group 3: Reform Policy - Transitioning from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth necessitates improvements in the business environment, particularly for private enterprises [3] - Recent policies aimed at enhancing the environment for private enterprises are essential for boosting innovation and supporting future economic growth [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Following the implementation of a package of incremental policies, economic indicators showed significant improvement, indicating the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [4] - The government is preparing for potential downward risks in the economy, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies [4][5] - Targeted measures may be necessary to stabilize sectors directly impacted by external factors, such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to align thoughts and actions with the Central Committee's scientific judgment on the economic situation and decision-making for economic work, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting the construction of the Xi'an regional science and technology innovation center, deepening the integration of technological and industrial innovation, and accelerating the development of new-generation artificial intelligence [2] - The meeting called for a strong emphasis on ecological environment protection, ensuring high-quality development through effective environmental governance and addressing flood and drought prevention measures [3] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the importance of learning and implementing General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on supporting the military and enhancing civil-military relations, aiming to strengthen the unity between the military and the government [2] - The meeting outlined the necessity of ensuring safety during the "May Day" holiday, focusing on social security, safety production, and tourism service guarantees to ensure a peaceful holiday for citizens and tourists [2][3] - The meeting reiterated the commitment to thoroughly implement the Central Eight Regulations, emphasizing the need for effective learning and education to ensure practical results [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and address risks in key areas, signaling positive stability for the real estate chain [2][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality development to respond to external uncertainties, particularly in the context of international trade tensions, such as the escalating US-China tariff situation [8][9]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to receive policy support as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing funding and implementing new policies [10][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policies - The report outlines the need for consistent policy orientation, utilizing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, including the issuance of special bonds and maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [9][10]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates that real estate development investment in March 2025 was CNY 0.9 trillion, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with sales and new construction areas also showing declines [62][63]. Infrastructure Investment - In March 2025, narrow infrastructure investment reached CNY 1.9 trillion, up 5.9% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure investment was CNY 2.6 trillion, reflecting a 10.7% increase [54][55]. Sector Performance - The construction sector is advised to focus on the dual themes of stabilizing growth and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with recommendations for companies with high overseas exposure to benefit from increasing international orders [11][12].