Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to factors such as the core PCE rebound in the US in July (highest since February but in line with expectations), the decline of the Michigan consumer confidence index, the weakening of the US dollar, the escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces, and the ruling of the US appellate court on most global tariff policies, the price of precious metals is expected to continue to be strong. Short - term strategies suggest holding long positions or buying on dips [3]. - In the long - term, with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases are expected to continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 29, 2025, London gold spot was at $3411.45 per ounce (up 0.5% from the previous day), London silver spot was at $38.82 per ounce (down 0.1%), COMEX gold was at $3470.00 per ounce (up 0.5%), COMEX silver was at $39.49 per ounce (unchanged), AU2510 was at 785.12 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), AG2510 was at 9386 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%), AU (T + D) was at 782.05 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), and AG (T + D) was at 9357 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.07 yuan per gram (up 2.3% from the previous day), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 29 yuan per kilogram (down 9.4%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.99 yuan per gram (down 33.5%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 584 yuan per kilogram (down 3.2%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 83.65 (up 0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 87.88 (up 0.6%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.30 yuan per gram (down 1.7%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 24 yuan per kilogram (up 20.0%) [3]. b. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 977.68 tons (up 1.01% from the previous day), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15309.99769 tons (down 0.15%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275767 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 61456 contracts (down 1.96%), the non - commercial net long positions were 214311 contracts (up 0.81%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 68227 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 21761 contracts (up 0.97%), and the non - commercial net long positions were 46466 contracts (down 0.18%) [3]. c. Inventory Data - On August 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 39624 kilograms (up 0.30% from the previous day), the SHFE silver inventory was 1195996 kilograms (up 1.48%), the COMEX gold inventory was 38925853 troy ounces (up 0.42%), and the COMEX silver inventory was 518232360 troy ounces (up 0.20%) [3]. d. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 29, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.10 (down 0.05% from the previous day), the US dollar index was 97.85 (down 0.02%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59% (down 0.83%), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23% (up 0.24%), the VIX was 15.36 (up 6.44%), the S&P 500 was 6460.26 (down 0.64%), and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01 per barrel (down 0.48%) [3]. e. Market News and Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index annual rate in July was 2.9% (highest since February, in line with expectations), the PCE price index annual rate was 2.6% (in line with expectations), the core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations), the PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2% (in line with expectations), and personal spending growth rate was 0.5% (highest since September) [3]. - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: The US appellate court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump were illegal. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen are preparing to confront Israel after the death of several high - level officials in an Israeli air strike [3].

Core Viewpoint - The arrival of the traditional consumption peak season "Golden September and Silver October" is expected to support copper prices, which are likely to maintain a strong trend due to multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of September 1, 2025, the spot copper recycling price is 73,700 yuan per ton [1] - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has reached 79,680 yuan per ton [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price closed at 9,906 USD per ton, marking a 0.68% increase and setting a new high [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tight supply conditions are driving the upward movement of copper prices [1] - According to SMM's monthly analysis, copper prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating with a strong upward bias due to multiple supporting factors [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to keep a close watch on market dynamics and relevant policy changes as copper prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1]

黄金方面： 地缘冲突在相对稳定一段时间之后又迎来升温。中东方面，也门胡塞武装准备与以色列展开对抗，土耳其方面也已经决定完全 切断与以色列的经济和商业联系，并且对其飞机关闭领空。 俄乌冲突方面也有所升温，8月29日俄乌在顿涅茨克重镇展开激烈交战，乌克兰方面计划对俄罗斯境内发动新一轮深入打击。欧 盟委员会主席冯德莱恩更是表示，欧盟已有明确的计划派兵乌克兰。 在地缘升温的同时，美联储官员们再度向市场释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示将在9月份降息。 技术面：日线上，近期行情总体维持在63-65美元区间震荡，短期大概率将延续。指标上看，62日均线延续下行，并且行情反弹 并没有有效上破65美元一线压力，后续行情重回弱势将是大概率事件。日内关注上方65美元一线压力情况。 美元指数： 数据方面看，美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，为2025年2月以来的新高，符合市场预期。数据公布之后，市场继续押 注美联储9月份降息。 美联储官员们继续释放宽松的信号，美联储戴利暗示9月份降息；另外美国法官未就特朗普罢免库克案当庭做出裁决，这就意味 着这位利率决策者将继续留任。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，降息的预期叠加地缘摩 ...

1. 美联储政策预期的转折 当前市场普遍押注美联储将在秋季开始降息。利率下降意味着美元资产收益率降低，资金自然会流入无 息但保值的黄金。旧金山联储主席的鸽派表态，更是直接点燃了市场情绪。 1. 美元走弱与贸易政策变动 近期，美国法院裁定部分关税措施非法，导致美元指数承压。美元疲软，使得以美元计价的黄金对全球 买家来说更便宜，进一步推高需求。 国际黄金市场一直都是全球瞩目的焦点。今天，COMEX黄金期货再创历史新高，盘中一度超过3550美 元/盎司。 这一数字不仅仅是冰冷的行情数据，更是全球宏观环境、地缘风险和市场预期交织的结果。金价突破这 一关口，意味着全球投资者对经济未来的信心与担忧已经达到了新的平衡点。 黄金被视为"无国籍的货币"。在历史长河中，每当美元疲软、利率下行或全球局势动荡时，黄金往往成 为投资者的"最后防线"。而3550美元/盎司不仅是一个整数心理关口，更代表着市场对未来经济趋势的 预判：它是美元信用、通胀预期与避险情绪的集中体现。 从2019年的1500美元，到2023年突破2000美元，再到如今直逼3600美元，黄金的上涨曲线几乎与全球金 融不确定性同步。此次突破，更像是一场长期积累情绪的集 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and increasing demand for gold in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 1, international gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3552.4 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3557.1 per ounce set in early August [1]. - In the domestic futures market, the main contract for gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose significantly, breaking through 800 yuan per gram [1]. - Gold-related stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw a strong performance, with over ten stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Hunan Gold, hitting the daily limit, and the precious metals sector rising nearly 9% [1]. - Gold stock ETFs increased by over 9%, with year-to-date gains exceeding 65% [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's officials have signaled a dovish stance, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the near future, which is expected to support gold prices [1][2]. - Current market conditions indicate a growing likelihood of gold prices breaking upward after four months of consolidation, driven by factors such as increased U.S. debt and rising demand for gold in jewelry as the consumption season approaches [2]. - Analysts from Citic Securities and Minsheng Securities suggest that the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing global economic pressures and the potential for central banks to continue purchasing gold [3]. Group 3: ETF and Fund Performance - The gold stock ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, comprising 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 66.52% of the index [2]. - The gold stock ETF has a recent five-day performance of 5.37% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.22 times, indicating a strong interest in gold-related investments despite a slight outflow of funds [5].

银均已进入超买区间，短期或有调整需求，投资者需注意风险控制。沪金2510合约本周关注区间：750-850 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 元/克；沪银2510合约关注区间：9600-9900元/千克。外盘方面，伦敦金价关注区间：3450-3550美元/盎司 ，伦敦银价关注区间：39-41美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 贵金属产业日报 2025-09-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 800.56 | 15.44 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 9775 | 389 | ...

贵金属板块早盘涨幅排名 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达向记者表示，美联储降息预期持续发酵，成为支撑贵金属走强的重要基础。 目前9月美联储降息概率仍维持在87%的高位，降息预期打压美元指数，显著提振了贵金属的金融属 性。与此同时，俄乌与中东地缘风险同步升级，为贵金属提供额外避险支撑。 展望后市，顾冯达认为，贵金属短期将维持偏强格局，基本面支撑主要来自三方面：一是美联储降息预 期持续升温；二是多地地缘风险推升避险情绪；三是技术突破后投机情绪高涨。投资者需要重点关注即 将公布的8月美国非农就业数据，以及本月中旬美联储议息会议政策信号。此外，由于白银兼具工业属 性与金融投机特征，其波动弹性更大，在投机资金推动下表现预计将优于黄金。 北京时间今日上午，COMEX黄金主力合约价格快速拉升，最高触及3552.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超1%， 越过8月高点再创历史新高，今年以来累计涨幅扩大至约35%。 伦敦现货黄金价格同样短期攀升，最高触及3486.16美元/盎司，距离今年4月22日3500美元的历史高点 仅相差不到1%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a sideways movement throughout the day, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2% in the afternoon. Gold stocks surged collectively, with companies like Western Gold and Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit. Chip stocks continued their strong performance, with companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Wanrun Technology also reaching the limit. The innovative drug concept was actively traded, with Ji Min Health and Kangchen Pharmaceutical hitting the limit. The CPO and other computing hardware stocks saw significant gains, with Guangku Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang rising over 10% to reach new highs. Overall, approximately 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with a total transaction volume of 2.77 trillion yuan [1]. Hot Topics Gold - The gold sector saw a significant increase, with multiple stocks such as Western Gold, Silver Nonferrous, and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit. This surge was catalyzed by international gold prices reaching a historical high, with silver breaking the $40 mark for the first time since 2011, and futures rising over 4% [4]. - The latest price for Western Gold was 21.91 yuan, up 9.99%, with a market cap of 14.99 billion yuan. Hunan Gold reached 22.74 yuan, up 10.01%, with a market cap of 35.53 billion yuan. Other notable performers included Silver Nonferrous and Hunan Silver, both hitting the daily limit [5]. Domestic Chips - The domestic chip sector experienced another significant rise, with Tianpu Co. achieving seven consecutive limits and Jianye Co. four consecutive limits. Companies like Xuanji Information and Liyang Chip also hit the limit. Reports indicated that TSMC notified clients of a 5-10% increase in foundry prices for 2026 [7]. - Alibaba has developed a new AI chip to fill the gap left by Nvidia in the Chinese market. Additionally, Huahong announced plans to acquire a 97.5% stake in Huali Micro and raise supporting funds [7][10]. Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector saw a notable increase, with Ji Min Health hitting the limit and companies like Kangchen Pharmaceutical and Huahai Pharmaceutical achieving consecutive limits. The National Medical Products Administration reported that China's biopharmaceutical market has become the second largest globally, with innovative drugs accounting for about 30% of global research [11]. - The total amount of foreign authorization for innovative drugs reached nearly $66 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing recognition of Chinese innovative drugs in the global market [11]. Additional Insights - Analysts predict that the domestic innovative drug industry will reach a turning point in 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven growth, supported by ongoing fundamentals and policies [14]. - The gold and silver markets are expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could support commodity prices overall [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The fundamentals of nickel are relatively loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 29, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121450 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 680 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 750 yuan/ton, and 710 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 136812 lots (+6981), and the open interest was 89621 lots (-2584) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21905 tons (-108) [2]. - **LME Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15190 dollars/ton (+185), the electronic - trading closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158), and the on - floor closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158) [2]. - **Volume**: The trading volume was 7266 lots (-788) [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-201564), and the total inventory was 209544 tons (-132) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 12760 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 109373 lots (-12493), and the open interest was 122203 lots (-4913) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 99772 tons (-659) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Nickel Spot**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122400 yuan/ton (+650), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123550 yuan/ton (+700), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121600 yuan/ton (+650) [2]. - **Premiums**: The average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract was 2300 yuan/ton (+50), and the average premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) over the Shanghai nickel contract was 350 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Spot**: - **Prices**: For 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13700 yuan/ton (0), and for 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13100 yuan/ton (+75) [2]. - **Premiums**: The basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price over the active contract was 850 yuan/ton (+35) [2]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, SMM China port nickel - ore total inventory was 8740000 wet tons (+540000), and the total national port nickel - ore inventory was 6000000 wet tons (0) [2]. - **Nickel Inventory**: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory totaled 4700 tons (0), and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 39470 tons (-1402) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The 300 - series stainless - steel spot inventory was 622700 tons (-3300) [2].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250901: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 29, the nickel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel rose 1.04%. The spot market had good trading, and the premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals were loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was volatile. The nickel price was expected to oscillate within a range, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - On August 29, the stainless - steel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with decreased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The current macro sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals needed time and had cost support. The price was expected to fluctuate following the macro situation, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Market Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel: On August 29, the main contract's trading volume was 136,812 lots (+6,981), and the open interest was 89,621 lots (-2,584). The inventory decreased by 108 tons to 22,013 tons. The price of nickel futures contracts showed an upward trend [2]. - LME nickel: On August 29, the 3 - month nickel's official spot price was $15,190 (+$185), the electronic - trading closing price was $15,421 (+$158), and the trading volume was 7,266 lots (-2,656). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 201,564 tons to 0 tons [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore last week decreased, and port inventories increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, leading to inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary cathode material production increased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Market Data - On August 29, the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 109,373 lots (-12,493), and the open interest was 122,203 lots (-4,913). The SHFE inventory decreased by 659 tons to 99,772 tons [2]. Supply - Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. Demand - Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. Inventory - The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory in the previous week was 622,700 tons (-3,300) [2]. Other Data - National port nickel ore inventory: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 874 (in ten - thousand wet tons) on August 29, an increase of 54 compared to the previous week [2]. - Nickel inventory in different areas: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 4,700 tons. SMM pure - nickel social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons [2]. - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In August, 200 - series stainless - steel inventory was 191,600 tons (+2,400), 300 - series was 622,700 tons (-3,300), 400 - series was 117,300 tons (-2,300), and the total inventory was 926,900 tons (-3,200) [2].