Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 1016.30 CNY per gram on December 26, with a daily increase of 0.75% and a trading volume of 224,588 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 1009.00 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 7.3 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 15.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84.5% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures suggests that the gold market is experiencing fluctuations around the 1000 CNY mark, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - The report indicates that the main gold contract closed at 1008.76 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.58%, and is fluctuating within the 1000-1010 USD range [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold prices is positive, with expectations for a strong upward trend, while short-term movements are expected to be strong and volatile [2]

整体来看，短期锡价大概率维持33-35万元/吨核心区间高位震荡，回调压力逐步积聚；若节前备货不及 预期，价格或测试区间下沿，反弹动能受现货成交疲软制约，难成趋势性上涨。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602上涨，开盘价报338640元/吨，盘中最高报344470元/吨，最低 报332820元/吨，结算价报337950元/吨，收盘报338550元/吨，上涨4590元，涨1.37%；沪锡主力月2602 合约成交量369071手，持仓量52276手，较前一日减少968手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金属网获 悉，12月26日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报332400元/吨-335400元/吨，均价报333900元/吨,较前一日价格 上涨1800元；今日长江现货市场1#锡价报333000元/吨-335000元/吨，均价334000元/吨，较上一交易日 价格上涨1750元/吨。ccmn锡市分析：宏观面，当前锡价正迎来"宏观政策、汇率、流动性"的共振式驱 动。一方面，美联储降息预期因美国CPI数据超预期放缓而 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing upward momentum driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints, with a notable increase in both futures and spot prices observed recently [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract for January 2026 open at 125,790 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 127,980 CNY/ton and closing at 126,750 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 1,640 CNY/ton or 1.31% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel on December 26 was reported at 130,900 CNY/ton, up by 3,600 CNY from the previous day, while the spot price averaged 131,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 4,250 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macro Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has weakened the US dollar, making nickel more attractive to global buyers and boosting its price [2]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector has improved, with strong performances in lithium and other energy metals contributing to a bullish atmosphere that supports nickel prices [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - A significant reduction in nickel supply is anticipated due to Indonesia's policy to cut nickel ore production by 34% by 2026, which is expected to tighten long-term supply [2]. - New regulations in Indonesia that impose separate taxation on cobalt may increase mining costs, further supporting nickel prices [2]. Group 4: Market Activity - The spot market is characterized by a "price without market" scenario, where trading activity remains subdued despite slight improvements in sentiment, leading to a situation where high-priced resources are not being sold [3]. - Downstream enterprises are cautious, focusing on purchasing based on need and at lower price points, which has resulted in transactions primarily occurring in the mid to low price range [3]. Group 5: Short-term Outlook - The short-term rebound in nickel prices is likely to continue, although the upward potential may be limited, suggesting a strong but constrained market environment [4].

Market Overview - Global stock markets are closed, leading to light trading activity. After a brief adjustment, the metals sector has strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium also rose [1] - On December 26, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and major European markets (Germany, France, UK, Italy) were closed for the holiday. Asian markets saw light trading, with Japan's Topix index hitting a new high [1] Metal Prices - The comprehensive rise in the metals market reflects deep investor anxiety about the macro environment and urgent demand for physical assets. Factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Africa [1] - Since early December, momentum-driven and speculative behavior have pushed gold and silver prices higher, with expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks contributing to new highs in precious metals [1] - Gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce and silver prices could reach around $90 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] Currency Movements - The offshore yuan is currently at 7.0061, with the onshore yuan's midpoint rate set at 7.0358, up 34 points, marking a new high since September 30, 2024. The offshore yuan broke the psychological level of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened slightly, with a 0.2% drop against the dollar to around 156.17, as inflation in Japan fell more than expected, leading to increased market expectations for delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The South Korean won continued its upward trend, rising 1.2% to 1429.85, reaching its highest level since early November, following verbal interventions from authorities and new tax measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market [8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,510.54, with a daily high surpassing $4,530, marking a new historical high [10] - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently at $74.62 per ounce, with a daily high breaking $75, also reaching a new historical high [13] - WTI crude oil rose nearly 0.3% to $58.52 per barrel, with traders closely monitoring U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil transport and military actions against terrorist organizations in Nigeria [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with gains exceeding 2% for all except the Shanghai Composite Index. The four stock - index futures also rose collectively, and small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. Market trading activity significantly rebounded compared to last week. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the market's expectation that the new Fed Chairman would cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with deflation pressure remaining. The 12 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. Although the weak economic indicators in November exerted pressure on A - shares, positive tones from political meetings provided bottom support [7][94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2603 | 2.46 | 0.48 | 4638.4 | | | IH2603 | 1.50 | 0.51 | 3051.4 | | | IC2603 | 4.71 | 0.80 | 7388.0 | | | IM2603 | 4.63 | 0.57 | 7472.4 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 1.95 | 0.32 | 4657.24 | | | SSE 50 | 1.37 | 0.41 | 3045.40 | | | CSI 500 | 4.03 | 0.65 | 7458.84 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.76 | 0.35 | 7605.53 | [10] 3.2. News Overview - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged, which is neutral [13]. - Trump hoped the next Fed Chairman would cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - The PBC's Q4 2025 monetary policy committee meeting proposed measures to maintain capital market stability, which is neutral - to - bullish [13]. - A large number of A - share listed companies completed private placements this year, which is neutral [13]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.53%, the STAR 50 Index rose 2.85%, the SME 100 Index rose 3.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.90% [16]. - **Overseas Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.43%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.27%, the Nikkei 225 rose 2.33%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.50% [17]. - **Industry Sectors**: Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals and national defense and military industries leading the gains. Most industry sectors saw net outflows of main funds, with significant net outflows in computer and national defense and military industries, and significant net inflows in power equipment [21][25]. - **SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was at a low level [29]. - **Restricted Share Unlock and Northbound Capital Transactions**: This week, major shareholders net - sold 1.1102 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share unlock market value was 192.473 billion yuan, and northbound capital traded a total of 529.777 billion yuan [32]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [40][43][46][49]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The A - share major indices rose collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also rose. Small - and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, and market trading activity rebounded. - Overseas, Trump's statement strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, and the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged. Although the weak economic indicators in November pressured A - shares, positive policy tones provided bottom support. The expectation of a dovish Fed Chairman led to a weaker dollar and a stronger RMB, supporting the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [94].

原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周三亚洲交易时段早盘，WTI原油价格小幅上行，围绕每桶58.40美元附近震荡。整 体来看，油价延续了前期的企稳态势，但上涨动能仍显谨慎，市场情绪主要受到供应端风险的推动。从 供应层面看，委内瑞拉相关的不确定性仍是当前油价的重要支撑因素。美国近期加大了对委内瑞拉原油 运输环节的限制力度，通过拦截油轮和强化警告的方式，提升了市场对原油出口受阻的预期。综合来 看，WTI原油当前处于典型的"供应风险支撑、需求信号压制"阶段。委内瑞拉原油运输受限为油价提供 了明显托底，但库存回升提醒市场需求端尚未稳固。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，油价触及54.80附近即入震荡，K线阴阳交替。均线系统空头排 列，压制油价，中期客观趋势方向向下。当下原油主客观趋势方向一直向下，依据主次交替规律，原油 中期走势维持下行节奏不变。原油短线（1H）走势继续上涨创新高，油价受到均线系统依托，短线客 观趋势方向向上不变。动能上，MACD在零后上方出现顶背离，预示多头动能存在减弱的信号。早盘原 油走势在主趋势上行中运行，预计日内原油走势仍维持看涨趋势不变。综合来看，原油今日操作 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月26日，周三我们认为，市场对美联储降息的预期升温，以及地缘局势紧张加剧刺激避险买盘，共同 推动黄金价格上涨，再创历史新高，短期技术面也显示黄金有机会继续冲高，因此操作上建议大家，下 方支撑关注4470美元，其次4430美元，上方压力关注4500美元整数位置的突破情况，若向上突破，上方 空间可以关注4600美元整数位置。 从之后的走势看，周三亚盘开盘后，黄金直接上涨，并很快突破4500美元整数位置压制，刷新历史新高 至4525美元，遇阻后金价于亚盘盘中短线跳水，跌至4471美元企稳，未能站稳4500美元整数位置，此后 金价反弹，多次试探4500美元整数位置压力，均未能取得有效突破，且在美盘盘中继续下探，刷新日低 至4448美元，收盘前金价反弹，最终日K线录得一根阴十字星。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，周三黄金再次刷新历史新高，降息预期与避险买盘仍是支撑金价上涨的主 要原因。消息方面，早些时候市场预期美联储在2026年可能只会降息一次，不过美联储12月降息之后， 美联储主席表示劳动力市场存在显著下行风险，不希望政策抑制就业增长，引发了市场对2026年可能降 息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has rebounded sharply, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent supply mismatches in key spot markets, and a weakening dollar, leading to significant price increases across precious and base metals [1]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have reached a historical high, trading at $74.37 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4.5% [2]. - Gold prices have also risen, trading above $4,500 per ounce, with a peak above $4,530 per ounce, marking a new historical high [3]. - Platinum and palladium have rebounded strongly, with platinum rising 8% to $2,413.62 per ounce, also reaching record highs [5]. - The overall increase in precious metals reflects a deep investor anxiety regarding the macro environment and a strong demand for physical assets, with gold and silver prices up approximately 70% and over 150% respectively this year [8]. Base Metals - Copper prices have surged by 3% to $5,771 per ton, the highest level since July, driven by supply concerns and a weakening dollar [4][13]. - The market is anticipating tighter global supply by 2026, which is influencing current pricing strategies [14]. Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing severe physical shortages, with a significant negative spread indicating extreme tightness in supply [10]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria, have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [11]. - The influx of funds into gold ETFs has been robust, with global holdings increasing monthly, indicating strong institutional demand [12]. Lithium and Aluminum - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded strongly, breaking through the 130,000 yuan mark, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics in the electric vehicle sector [16]. - Aluminum prices have seen a significant increase of over 6%, influenced by market speculation regarding potential production cuts amid a backdrop of oversupply [17].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

黄金历史高位走反复，原油反弹承压继续空！ 最新数据显示全球最大的实物黄金持仓机构ETF近期持续增持黄金，强烈的看涨意愿在市场不断发酵，主要的因素还是近期美 国的经济数据支撑美联储进一步降息，提振了美联储来年一月份继续降息的预期，其二中东地缘政治冲突不断，避险情绪推动 黄金走高，其三白银钯金等强势的需求推动价格不断刷新历史新高，然后给到黄金一定带动，节前黄金先是冲高到4525一线刷 新历史高点之后走出一波可观的回落跌破4500之后维持窄幅整理，晚间走出一波加速最低触及4448附近然后如期企稳反抽，我 们晚间跟大家分享的4450附近多单也是成功兑现到了目标位，今天早盘开盘黄金突破4500一线之后加速拉伸再度冲击一波历史 记录触及4531一线然后承压回落，目前维持高位整理，操作上关注4500分水岭，回踩企稳接多，跌破4500可以顺势看延续调整 原油方面，一方面是需求的相对疲软数据，虽然降息预期有望提振原油需求，同时中东地区的地缘政治冲突保持，以及美对委 内瑞拉的制裁也给到了美原油供应端的炒作空间，原油近期也是走出了一波延续性的反弹走势，但是目前来看再度开始承压 了，我们节前跟大家分享的58.6附近空单目前继续持仓中 ...