摘要 第一，回顾2025年，全球宏观面有五大特征：一是实际增长率大致稳定，IMF预计2025年全球经济增速为3.2%，和2024年区别不大，关税冲击被进口抢跑 和AI投资部分对冲，是韧性的主要来源；二是不同经济体分化，美国实际增速有所下滑，欧日小幅反弹，新兴市场维持韧性增速；三是通胀和货币政策 分化，但宽松为主，欧元区上半年降息、美国下半年降息、日本加息、新兴市场多数降息；四是关税带来扰动，上半年贸易环境急剧变化带来一定微观抢 跑效应；下半年则随着贸易环境缓和而趋于正常化；五是AI产业链预期升温，带来主要经济体资本开支和全球贸易的增量，以及有色金属需求的强预 期。 第二，从上述特征来理解全球资产定价：一是增长环境的平稳和主要经济体财政货币政策宽松带来了风险资产机会，大宗商品、股票均有较高收益；二是 美国降息带来美元资产利差下降，关税带来信用风险溢价上升，双逻辑下的美元走弱成为大类资产定价的关键助推因素；三是新兴市场有着相对韧性的增 长，叠加资金流出美元资产后的再配置效应，相对收益明显；四是AI的产业基本面、全球产业链重塑预期，叠加有利的流动性环境，形成强叙事特征， 并向有色金属等领域传递。这是一个比较"顺"的 ...

Domestic Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI are showing divergence, with January CPI expected to be 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month but decrease by 1.2% year-on-year [1][10] - January credit growth may not meet last year's levels, with notable increases in bill rates compared to the previous year and a bank acceptance ratio of approximately 72%, higher than last year's 67.2%, indicating weaker credit issuance [10] Overseas Economic Developments - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman may face procedural delays due to a request from Senate Democrats and a Republican to postpone the nomination until investigations into current Chairman Powell and other board members conclude [3][13] - Polls suggest that the Liberal Democratic Party may secure over 233 seats in the 465-seat House of Representatives, potentially allowing them to escape the constraints of coalition governance [3][13] Asset Market Insights - Global liquidity may benefit from Japan's potential escape from coalition governance, which opposes early interest rate hikes and advocates for a weaker yen, thus supporting global liquidity [4][11] - Domestic technology sectors should monitor U.S. stock trends, with limited risks but potential opportunities in Q2; PPI may turn positive earlier in Q2, benefiting sectors like electricity, construction materials, steel, new energy, and chemicals [4][11] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank has implemented a "shorten and lengthen" strategy in liquidity management, with a net withdrawal of 7-day liquidity while injecting 14-day and 3-month liquidity, indicating a protective stance on liquidity [5][12] - Average funding prices have decreased by 5-10 basis points across various instruments, reflecting a downward trend in liquidity costs [5][15] Government Debt and Financing - Local government debt net financing reached 579.37 billion yuan, while national debt net financing was 212 billion yuan, totaling 791.37 billion yuan for the week [7][16] - Upcoming issuance plans include 322.14 billion yuan in local government bonds and 130 billion yuan in national bonds, with net financing expectations of 320.05 billion yuan and a negative net financing of 249.89 billion yuan for national bonds [7][16]

Global Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, global economic growth is expected to stabilize at approximately 3.2%, with the IMF projecting little difference from 2024. The resilience is attributed to tariff impacts being offset by imports and AI investments [1][10] - Economic differentiation is evident, with the US experiencing a decline in growth, while Europe and Japan show slight rebounds, and emerging markets maintain resilient growth [1][10] - Inflation and monetary policies are diverging, with a general trend towards easing; the Eurozone is expected to cut rates in the first half of the year, while the US is anticipated to lower rates in the second half [1][10] - Tariff disruptions have led to significant changes in trade environments, with a normalization expected in the latter half of the year [1][10] - The AI industry is expected to see increased capital expenditure, contributing to global trade growth and strong demand for non-ferrous metals [1][10] Global Asset Pricing Understanding - A stable growth environment and loose fiscal and monetary policies in major economies create opportunities for risk assets, with commodities and stocks showing high returns [2][14] - The decline in the dollar's asset yield due to US rate cuts and increased credit risk premiums from tariffs are key factors driving the dollar's weakness, influencing asset pricing [2][14] - Emerging markets exhibit relative growth resilience, benefiting from capital reallocation away from dollar assets [2][14] - The narrative surrounding AI's industrial fundamentals and global supply chain restructuring, combined with favorable liquidity conditions, creates a strong pricing narrative [2][14] US Economic Outlook for 2026 - The US economy is expected to experience a "strong then stable" trajectory, with GDP growth projected at around 2.4%, slightly above market expectations of 2.1% [5][29] - The first half of 2026 may see growth spike to approximately 3% due to the impact of tax cuts and government spending recovery, followed by a decline to around 2% in the latter half [5][29] - Consumer spending is anticipated to grow by 2.1%, supported by tax cuts and tariff rebates, although K-shaped recovery characteristics are noted [5][29] - Corporate fixed investment is projected to grow by about 5%, driven by systematic reductions in capital costs from tax reforms and ongoing AI infrastructure investments [5][29] US Monetary Policy Changes - The nomination of Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair signals a potential systemic shift in US macroeconomic policy, focusing on regulatory reforms to enhance private sector credit expansion [6][35] - This new framework aims to achieve a balance between Fed balance sheet reduction and credit easing, potentially leading to a decline in the Fed's balance sheet relative to GDP without triggering a liquidity crisis [6][35] Non-US Economic Conditions - Japan's fiscal policy is shifting towards a growth-oriented approach, with GDP growth expected at 0.6% in 2026 [7][41] - The Eurozone is projected to maintain weak recovery, with GDP growth anticipated at 1.3%, supported by fiscal expansion and resilient consumption [7][41] - Emerging markets are expected to see moderate growth, with significant regional differentiation; India is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6.4% driven by domestic demand [7][41] Geopolitical Environment - The global geopolitical landscape in 2026 faces challenges from the US's "transactional diplomacy," with significant developments in Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East [8][46] - The US is redefining its resource control in Latin America, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is moving towards a ceasefire, impacting asset pricing related to geopolitical risks [8][46]

法国巴黎 银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。报告指出："根据未来汇率走势，下一次加息提前至3月的可能性不 能排除。"日本官员此前已警告，政府准备对日元过度波动采取措施。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经东京2月9日电（记者刘春燕李诗萌）日本厚生劳动省9日公布的初步统计结果显示，由于通货 膨胀持续，扣除物价上涨因素后2025年日本人均实际工资比上年减少1.3%，连续4年下降。 报告显示，2025年日本劳动者平均每月名义现金工资为35.5万日元（1美元约合156日元），比上年增加 2.3%。虽然名义工资增加，但由于日本近年来物价持续上涨、去年消费物价涨幅达3.7%，导致实际工 资收入继续呈现下降势头。 此间媒体和专家指出，由于自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟在8日举行的众议院选举中获得过半数 议席，日本首相高市早苗主张的积极财政政策将更加顺利地出台，其政策措施将进一步加剧通胀。在实 际工资水平持续下降的情况下，如果物价不断上涨，消费恐将陷入停滞，日本经济复苏也将因此承压。 ...

铝产业链月报 2026 年 2 月 9 日 风险情绪下行供需季节性弱 铝价震荡向下调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 25 进入休假，铸造铝检修增多开工率逐步下滑。海外 ADC12报价维持高位震荡，受国内价格下跌影响，进 口盈利空间持续收窄并一度转为小幅亏损，进口货 源对国内市场的冲击减弱。下游需求偏弱，高价备 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，1月氧化铝出现部分减产检修，涉及产 能约500万吨，不过这些减产多以焙烧炉检修为主， 后续产能将陆续恢复。临近春节物流运力将有大幅 下降，氧化铝厂库 ...

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 金油共振上涨，港股延续下跌。 当周，标普500下跌0.1%；10Y美债收益率下行4bp；美元指数上涨0.5% 至97.6，离岸人民币升至6.93；布油价格下跌3.7%至68.1美元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨1.6%至4958.5美元/ 盎司，COMEX银价格下跌9.4%至76.77美元/盎司。 欧央行2月例会按兵不动，美国12月职位空缺弱于市场预期。 欧央行2月议息会议维持利率不变，欧央行 行长拉加德表示关注欧元走势，可能影响通胀；美国12月JOLT职位空缺654.2万人，市场预期725万人， 金融保险、零售贸易、专业商业服务业空缺率回落幅度最为显著。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 （一）大类资产：金油共振上涨，港股延续下跌 当周，发达市场股指多数上涨、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，道琼斯工业平均、法国 CAC40、日经225分别上涨2.5%、1.8%、1.7%；新兴市场股指方面，开罗CASE30、泰国SET指 ...

美股市场风格转换要来了？ 在近期市场剧烈震荡重创部分板块与资产之后，投资者正转向更便宜、规模更小的公司。 上周五，尽管标普500指数上涨1.78%，纳斯达克100指数反弹近2%，但反映美国小盘股市场表现的罗素2000小 盘股指数以3.6%的涨幅跑赢。"美股七巨头"中，部分个股并未参与此次反弹，亚马逊股价更是大跌超5%，谷 歌跌超2%，Meta也跌了1%。 美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett表示，科技巨头已不再是赢家，小盘股比科技股更值得押注。 小盘股强势反弹，罗素2000指数大涨 最近几周，随着投资者调整持仓，近年来表现最亮眼的某些市场领域正弥漫着警惕与避险情绪，而其他领域则 迎来资金流入。例如，旨在追踪工业公司的基准指数道琼斯工业平均指数上周五创下历史新高，而软件板块股 票当周市值却缩水1万亿美元。 上周五，反映美国小盘股市场表现的罗素2000指数大涨3.6%，万得美股小盘指数涨幅也达到3.42%，美股微盘 指数更是大涨超4%。 路透社指出，投资者纷纷押注，在科技股推动美国牛市多年后，涨势将扩散至工业、医疗保健和小盘股领域。 ProShares全球投资策略师Simeon Hyman表示："我 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a volatile decline, with Wind All A Index dropping by 1.49% and average daily trading volume decreasing to 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 fell by 2.46%, 2.68%, 1.33%, and 0.93% respectively, primarily due to pullbacks in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors [3] - There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, indicated by a weekly decrease in financing balance by 43.2 billion yuan to 2.65 billion yuan and an increase in implied volatility for options [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The logic supporting the strength of the technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains unchanged, contributing to improved productivity and asset returns in the equity market [3] - The cyclical themes are more sensitive to inflation indicators, suggesting that systematic opportunities may arise only after inflation metrics stabilize [3] - The recent style shift in the market is viewed as a result of declining risk appetite rather than a signal of a change in market themes [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong performance driven by a decline in PMI data and the central bank's resumption of reverse repos, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity [5][19] - As of February 6, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were recorded at 1.36%, 1.56%, 1.81%, and 2.25% respectively, reflecting slight decreases from January 30 [5][19] - The government issued 4.393 billion yuan in bonds this week, with a net issuance of 1.976 billion yuan, indicating a focus on managing debt levels [20] Group 4: Local Government Economic Targets - Over 60% of local governments adjusted their GDP growth targets for the year, with many setting targets around 5%, indicating a shift towards structural adjustments rather than short-term growth [22] - In terms of retail sales growth, 15 out of 21 provinces lowered their targets, with most reductions around 1% [22] - Investment targets were also adjusted, with 13 out of 18 provinces lowering their fixed asset investment growth goals, emphasizing structural optimization over expansion [22]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a rebound after a significant drop, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and suggesting that patience may be more important than immediate trading actions [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $4792.00 per ounce, hitting a low of $4402.14 before rebounding to a high of $5091.81 mid-week, ultimately closing at $4960.86, marking a weekly increase of $95.75 or 1.97% from the previous week's close of $4865.11 [1][3]. Market Influences - The market was influenced by previous selling pressure, easing geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve's comments on potential interest rate cuts, which contributed to a stronger fundamental outlook for gold [3][5]. - Profit-taking and renewed geopolitical tensions led to fluctuations in gold prices, but underlying support from buying interest and inflation expectations helped gold to recover [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. retail sales and unemployment rates, are expected to be favorable for gold prices, reinforcing a bullish outlook despite potential volatility [5]. - Recent data showed a decline in job openings to 6.54 million and an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000, indicating a cooling labor market that may support lower inflation and bolster market expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices remain above key support levels, suggesting a continued bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining above $4300 as a critical support level [7][8]. - Daily charts show a rebound in gold prices, although resistance at the 10-day moving average remains unbroken, indicating potential for further fluctuations [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4910 or $4800, while resistance levels are at $5100 or $5190 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $77.70 or $74.70, with resistance at $83.10 or $86.10 [10].