Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment as investors' bets on an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve are cooling down, with expectations for a September rate cut dropping from 90% to 70% [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish stance, diminishing market expectations for an immediate rate cut, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stating she would not support easing policy if a decision were required immediately [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid emphasizes that inflation risks currently outweigh labor market risks [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledges some positive inflation data but warns that it could be a temporary phenomenon, contributing to a hawkish outlook [2]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - Mixed economic data complicates the Fed's decision-making, with initial jobless claims increasing, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, while the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity has risen to its fastest pace since 2022, showcasing economic resilience [5]. - European major stock indices opened lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.30%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.15%, and France's CAC40 down 0.19% [5]. - The Japanese 30-year government bond yield reached a new high of 3.21%, marking the highest level since its introduction in 1999 [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding a dovish shift from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with some predicting a cautious, data-driven stance from the Fed [6]. - If Powell maintains a neutral or hawkish position regarding a September rate cut, it could lead to further strengthening of the dollar, as investors seem to have priced in a dovish outlook [6]. - In individual stock movements, tech giant Nvidia's shares fell approximately 1.9% in alternative trading [6].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周五，因持续的通胀压力与不断上升的财政风险继续打击市场情绪，日本30年期国债收益率攀升至历史 新高。其他期限的收益率也同步上扬，日本国债已连续数月遭遇抛售。 日本30年期国债收益率一度升至当日高点3.21%，略微超过7月创下的3.2%历史纪录。20年期日本国债 收益率升至2.66%，续刷1999年以来新高；10年期国债收益率上升1个基点至1.615%，创2008年10月以 来最高水平。 债市出现这一走势出现之际，日本7月核心消费者物价指数高于预期，且远超日本央行2%的目标。与此 同时，因执政联盟在7月参议院选举中失利，市场预期政府将出台新的财政刺激措施，也引发了债券发 行增加的担忧。 日本总务省周五公布的数据显示，7月剔除生鲜食品的核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，低 于6月的3.3%，也略高于经济学家预测的3%。分析师原本预计能源价格会因去年高基数效应而拉低整体 水平。 新家义贵则表示："如果单看通胀数据，日本央行随时可以加息，但从逻辑上说，他们应等待明年工资 增长的动能更清晰再行动。因此我认为12月或明年1月更可能，但也确实存在提前到1 ...

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线下方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9209元/千克，上涨0.55%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一 方面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表 态反映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经 济，也将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择 何种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心， 而施密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了 一线希望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on August 22, with Shanghai gold futures at 773.12 CNY per gram, down 0.39%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9200.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.45% [1] - International precious metals futures were all in the red, with COMEX gold priced at 3369.40 CNY per ounce, down 0.42%, and COMEX silver at 37.97 USD per ounce, down 0.35% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 776.00 CNY per gram and 9187.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 777.22 CNY and 9254.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of the week ending August 16, initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [3] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [3] - Market expectations suggest that cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points have a probability of 51.5% by October, with a 35.3% chance for a cumulative cut of 50 basis points [3] Group 3 - On August 21, COMEX gold prices fell by 0.15% to 3383.50 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures dropped by 0.01% to 776.08 CNY per gram [4] - The ongoing tariff policies and rising inflation pressures are expected to persist, influencing market sentiment regarding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Attention is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, which may impact rate cut expectations for the year [4]

亚洲交易时段盘中，美元走强，周线料表现强劲。在美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（JeromePowell）发表可 能决定近期货币政策走向的讲话之前，投资者对降息押注进行了重新评估。 7月就业报告意外疲软，加 上5月和6月的招聘数据大幅下调，提升借贷成本即将下调的预期，交易员甚至预估9月的下一次会议将 大幅降息。不过此后，其他政策制定者的谨慎言论，以及经济数据闪现通胀风险，削弱原本的预期。 CMEFedWatch工具显示，市场预估9月降息25个基点的可能性为75%，低于一周前的92%。 日元兑美元回落至148.63，本周可能下跌1%。数据显示，日本7月份核心通胀率连续第二个月放缓，但 仍高于央行2%的目标，使未来几个月加息的预期持续存在。 ING高级经济学家MinJooKang表示："我们 预计日本央行将在10月上调政策利率。核心通胀率可能会在较长时间内保持在3%以上，这将支持日本 央行的正常化政策。" 澳元变化不大，报0.6425美元，本周料下跌1.2%；纽元略有回落，报0.58135美 元，本周料下跌1.9%，为四个多月来最大跌幅。 编辑：崔凯 美联储官员周四对下月降息的可能性态度冷淡，这为鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克森霍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a recent price of 7.37 yuan and a 12.55% increase over the past six months [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 21, 2025, the gold ETF fund has a turnover rate of 1.35% and a trading volume of 3.81 billion yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 221.58 million yuan recently, with a total of 81.55 million yuan net inflow over the last 15 trading days [2] - The fund's net asset value has increased by 80.84% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Group 2: Investment Dynamics - UBS forecasts that the upward trend in gold prices may continue for another year, driven by factors such as persistent inflation in the U.S., below-trend economic growth, and a potential resumption of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Eastern Jin Cheng suggests that unexpected inflation data may lead to a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, which could pressure gold prices in the short term [1] Group 3: Fund Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, with a tracking error of just 0.002% over the past three months, reflecting high tracking precision [5]

尽管能源价格因补贴恢复同比下降0.3%（为2024年3月以来首降），但大米价格同比飙涨90.7%，加工 食品单月涨幅达8.3%，创近一年新高。Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute 经济学家新家义贵指出："仅凭核 心CPI微降判断通胀减弱系误判，食品涨价正加速向消费端传导。" T&D策略师Hiroshi Namioka指出，10月会议因发布季度展望且经分支机构评估，更具决策优势。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分析师普遍认为，若通胀持续高位，日本央行或结束十年超宽松，年内启动渐进式加息。 8月12 - 19日公布的调查显示，63%得受访者预计今年晚些时候将关键利率从0.50%上调至0.75%，较上 月54%显著提升。尽管美国经济放缓引发美联储降息预期，但超七成经济学家认为不影响日本央行政策 节奏。 短期来看，92%的经济学家预计9月中旬会议维持利率不变，但四季度行动成共识。40位给出时点的专 家中，38%选10月，30%倾向明年1月，18%押注12月。 新华财经北京8月22日电日本内务省数据显示，7月剔除生鲜食品的核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，较6月的 3.3%小幅回落，但仍显著高于央行2% ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to set the provisional interest rate for government bonds at 2.6%, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of the country's massive fiscal deficit [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Bond Yield - The provisional interest rate of 2.6% is significantly higher than the previous year's rate of 2.1% and exceeds the earlier forecast of 2.2% for fiscal year 2026 [1][2]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.615%, the highest since 2008, while the 20-year yield hit 2.655%, nearly matching its highest level since 1999 [2]. - The increase in bond yields is linked to rising investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of Japan's fiscal policies, leading to a higher "term premium" in the bond market [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Inflation - Japan's debt service costs are projected to rise by 25% by fiscal year 2028, indicating increasing fiscal pressure [3]. - A deeper price measure, excluding energy and fresh food, rose by 3.4%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the economy [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with a 51% probability of a rate increase by the end of October [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The rising yields and fiscal pressures may lead to significant selling pressure on long-term Japanese government bonds, raising concerns of a potential bond market sell-off similar to last summer [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the Bank of Japan could raise rates based on inflation data, they may wait until December or January to assess wage growth and the impact on global markets [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "slow-motion crisis" in the government bond market, which could have implications for equity markets if ignored [4][5].

970 965 960 955 950 945 940 935 930 2025-06-30 2025-08-07 2025-06-12 2025-07-21 11:11 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 956.77 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08- .Il 5G EBC黄金属于持仓报告解读 接下来，投资者聚焦杰克逊霍尔央行年会，关注美联储主席鲍威尔是否会支持提振就业市场的措施，还是继续将重点放在抑制通胀上。法国兴业银行认为， 9月的政策决定将更多依赖于劳动力市场前景，而不是物价。但通胀仍会起到强化作用，因为物价上涨可能加剧增长前景恶化，从而增加美联储推动降息的 可能性。 如果接下来出炉的就业数据再次令人失望，市场可能会试探性地推动美联储在下个月降息50个基点。不过有分析指出，鹰派美联储可能会影响金价，但只要 金价仍处于3270至3440美元区间，就不存在大幅下跌的巨大风险，毕竟各国央行仍在大量买入黄金。 从技术面来看，日线图显示，金价缺乏明确的方向性倾向，技术指标转高，但相对强弱指数(RSI)仍低于中线水平。4小时图显示，技术指标从最近的 ...

今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈的前 景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫长且 反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。鲍威尔潜在继任者布拉德 呼吁今年降息100个基点，并在2026年进一步降息。 【要闻速递】 在美联储的政策动态备受关注之际，其潜在继任者布拉德积极发声，主张今年实施100个基点的降息举 措，且计划于2026年继续推进进一步降息。 摘要今日周五（8月22日)亚盘时，黄金价格在3334美元附近徘徊，维持上一交易日的跌势，因俄乌和谈 的前景冲淡了市场的避险情绪。然而，双方在"合法性"和"关键问题"上存在巨大分歧，和谈之路必定漫 长且反复。任何谈判遇阻的消息都可能随时再次点燃避险情绪，为金价提供支撑。 周三披露的美联储7月会议纪要表明，政策制定者们对当前的劳动力市场及通胀状况表达了深切担忧。 不过，多数官员认为当下并非降息的合适时机。 该会议纪要还深刻揭示了美联储内部成员之间存在的显著分歧。其中，潜在继任者布拉德坚定呼吁今年 降息100个基点，并规划在202 ...