Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates was not based on a broad consensus among officials, indicating a divergence of opinions regarding the necessity and timing of the rate cut [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agreed to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75% after a comprehensive assessment of economic risks [2]. - Six officials opposed the rate cut, including two voting members, primarily due to differing views on inflation progress [2]. - Some officials supporting the cut cited slowing job growth and rising unemployment as indicators of increasing downside risks in the labor market, viewing the rate cut as a proactive risk management measure [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Certain officials expressed caution regarding inflation, noting that progress towards the 2% inflation target has stalled, with inflation likely to remain relatively high in the short term [2][5]. - There is a consensus that further rate cuts could be reasonable if inflation decreases as expected, but this is contingent on new data [3]. Group 3: Reserve Levels and Future Actions - The Fed has determined that bank reserves have shifted from "ample" to "adequate," prompting the initiation of short-term U.S. Treasury purchases to maintain smooth interest rate control [4]. - The first round of purchases is set at approximately $40 billion, with flexibility in scale and pace based on market conditions [4]. - Economic growth is expected to accelerate by 2026, supported by fiscal and regulatory policy changes, although uncertainty remains regarding actual growth predictions [4]. Group 4: Upcoming Meetings - The next Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark interest rate [6].

美联储会议纪要显示，多数与会者认为如果通胀随时间推移如预期般下降，进一步降息可能是合适的 [10]，但多位与会者指出高通胀有可能变得根深蒂固，并暗示进一步降息可能会被误解为美联储对2%通 胀目标缺乏决心[11]。 二、能源与航运期货 美国至12月26日当周API原油库存录得增加174.7万桶，预期为减少230万桶，前值为增加239.1万桶[9]。 三、宏观与市场影响 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 纽约期银价格日内波动剧烈，先突破77美元/盎司，日内涨9.28%[1]，随后进一步突破78美元/盎司，日 内涨幅扩大至10.70%[2]；但盘中一度回落，失守77美元/盎司，日内跌2.35%[3]，最终失守75美元/盎 司，日内跌幅达4.07%[4]。 现货白银同步呈现大幅震荡，先后突破77美元/盎司（日内涨0.17%）[5]、78美元/盎司（日内涨8.17%） [6]，日内涨幅一度达8%，现报77.88美元/盎司[7]，但随后失守75美元/盎司，日内跌1.65%[8]。 尽管如此，交易员维持对美联储2026年内两次降息的押注，政策纪要未能改变市场预期[12]。 此外，美联储一项调查显示，受访者预计未来12个月央行 ...

一、国际新闻 国际贵金属市场波动显著，纽约期银价格在日内经历剧烈震荡，先后突破77美元/盎司和78美元/盎司关 口，日内涨幅一度达到10.70%，随后回落并失守75美元/盎司，日内跌幅达4.07%[1][2][3]。 现货白银同步呈现宽幅震荡，日内涨幅最高达8.17%并突破78美元/盎司，最终失守75美元/盎司，日内 跌1.65%[4][5][6][7]。 美国金融市场方面，周二美股三大指数小幅收跌，道指跌0.20%，纳指跌0.24%，标普500指数跌 0.14%；大型科技股涨跌分化，Meta、英特尔涨超1%，特斯拉跌超1%[8]。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.18%，成分股中金生游乐跌12.93%，1药网跌8.04%，而百度、蔚来等个股 在盘中曾推动指数涨超1%[9][10]。 来源：喜娜AI 地缘政治与贸易政策方面，美国政府已颁发许可证，批准三星和SK海力士2026年向中国出口芯片制造 设备，此前美国于8月撤销相关豁免政策，此次为暂时松绑[20]。 印度宣布对非合金钢和合金钢扁平材征收11%-12%的保障措施关税，有效期至2028年4月20日[21]。 二、国内新闻 中国企业融资与市场动态方面，MiniM ...

与此同时，纪要称，"一些与会者指出，通胀上升有可能变得根深蒂固，在通胀读数仍然偏高的背景下 进一步下调政策利率可能被误解为政策制定者对2%通胀目标的承诺有所减弱。" 美联储主席鲍威尔在12月会议后对记者表示，美联储已经将利率下调到足以防范劳动力市场出现更严重 恶化的水平，但又能够继续对通胀形成压制。 美联储12月会议纪要显示，政策制定者在通胀和失业哪一个对美国经济构成更大风险的问题上，存在显 著分歧。 纪要指出："多数与会者认为，朝着更为中性的政策立场迈进将有助于防止劳动力市场状况出现严重恶 化的可能性。" 会议纪要称："一些支持或本可以支持将目标区间维持不变的与会者表示，接下来两次会议之间将公布 大量有关劳动力市场和通胀的数据，有助于他们判断是否有必要降息。" 由于政府停摆持续整个10月并延续至11月近一半时间，官员们在会议时缺乏通常可用的经济数据。但决 策者称，未来几周的新数据或可为他们提供指引。 ...

Market Performance - On December 30, US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 down by 0.20%, 0.24%, and 0.14% respectively [3] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with META, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet rising, while Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla declined [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.27%, with notable gains in companies like EHang and Baidu, while others like Alibaba and Bilibili experienced slight declines [3] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices increased slightly by 0.19%, closing at $4340.128 per ounce, while spot silver surged by 5.67% [5] - International oil prices saw a minor decline, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI experiencing slight drops [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting indicated increasing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with officials split on inflation and labor market outlooks [4] - Most officials believe further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation continues to decline, but there is hesitation regarding the timing and extent of such cuts [4] Copper Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that after reaching historical highs, copper prices may experience a temporary pullback, but long-term demand from sectors like power infrastructure and AI will limit downside potential [7] - The forecast for LME copper prices is expected to range between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton in the near term, with a long-term outlook suggesting prices could rise to $15,000 per ton by 2035 [7]

Market Performance - On December 30, US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 down by 0.20%, 0.24%, and 0.14% respectively [3] - Major European indices saw gains, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.75%, France's CAC40 up 0.69%, Germany's DAX up 0.57%, Italy's MIB up 1.14%, and the European STOXX50 up 0.77% [3] - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with the US Tech Giants Index down 0.07%. Amazon rose 0.20%, Microsoft 0.09%, and Alphabet 0.09%, while Apple fell 0.26%, Nvidia 0.36%, and Tesla 1.17% [3] Company News - META announced a significant acquisition of the AI development company Butterfly Effect for several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date, following WhatsApp and Scale AI [3] - In the Chinese stock market, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.27%, with notable gains from EHang and Yika Technology, both up over 5%, and Baidu and Tiger Brokers up over 4% [3] Commodity Prices - Gold prices saw a slight increase, with spot gold up 0.19% to $4340.128 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up 0.20% to $4352.3 per ounce [5] - Silver prices surged, with spot silver rising 5.67% and COMEX silver futures up 7.88% [5] - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI down [6] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions are increasing, as indicated by the minutes from the last meeting, with officials expressing differing views on inflation and labor market trends [4] - Most Fed officials believe that further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation continues to decline, but there is hesitation regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [4]

新华财经纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储官员不仅对此次货币政策会议降息决定不能达成一致，他们对货币政策前景同样存在明显分歧。 美联储公开市场委员会在10日投票决定再度降息25个基点，但其12名成员中有两名成员认为应保持基准 利率不变，一名成员认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。这是2019年9月议息会议以来美联储内部首次出 现如此多的反对声。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员的判断是，如果通胀今后如预期回落，进一步下调联邦基金利率目标区 间很可能是合适的。 但对于进一步调整利率的幅度和时机，一些与会官员暗示，根据他们的经济展 望，此次降息后，在一段时间内维持利率不变很可能是合适的。几名与会官员评论说，这样将让决策者 得以评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动的延迟影响，同时给决策者更多时间获得通胀向2%目标 回落的信心。 纪要显示，与会官员整体判断是通胀上行风险依然处于高位，就业下行风险处于高位并从2025年中开始 升高。很多与会官员认为，现有证据表明关税带来持续通胀压力的可能性已经降低，美联储为应对就业 下行风险放松货币政策立场是合适的。与此相对，多名 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the third consecutive day [1] - The Dow Jones fell by 94.87 points (0.20%) to 48,367.06 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 55.27 points (0.24%) to 23,419.08 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 9.50 points (0.14%) to 6,896.24 points [1] - Bitcoin attempted to break the $90,000 mark but failed [1] European and Asian Markets - The German DAX30 index rose by 271.31 points (1.11%) to 24,636.23 points, while the UK FTSE 100 increased by 77.60 points (0.79%) to 9,944.13 points [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.37%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea decreased by 0.15% [2] Currency Exchange - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.21% to 98.241 [3] - The Euro traded at 1.1747 USD, and the British Pound at 1.3466 USD, both lower than the previous day [3] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin increased by over 1.3% to $88,396.44, while Ethereum rose by over 1% to $2,970 [4] Commodities - Spot gold rose by 0.17% to $4,338.83, and silver increased by 0.05% to $76.257 [5] - Crude oil prices for February delivery fell slightly, with light crude at $57.95 per barrel (down 0.22%) and Brent crude at $61.92 per barrel (down 0.03%) [5] Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicated that some officials are cautious about further rate cuts in early next year, citing persistent inflation pressures [6][7] - The Fed's economic growth forecast has accelerated compared to October, with GDP growth expected to remain above potential growth rates by 2028 [8] Corporate News - Meta Platforms is reportedly acquiring Manus AI for up to $2.5 billion, marking its entry into the enterprise AI sector [9] - NVIDIA is in talks to acquire Israeli AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion, with a focus on its skilled workforce [10] - Amazon Web Services plans to invest up to $50 billion to build AI systems for U.S. government agencies, starting in 2026 [11] - Warner Bros. is expected to reject Paramount's acquisition offer, citing concerns over the offer's competitiveness compared to Netflix's proposal [12]

每经AI快讯，美联储12月会议纪要提到，关于通胀前景，与会者普遍预计通胀在短期内将保持在一定 程度上的高位，之后会逐步回落至2%。许多与会者强调，他们预计关税对核心商品通胀的影响将会减 弱，但一些与会者对这些影响何时会减弱以及关税最终会在多大程度上转嫁到终端商品价格上表示不确 定。一些与会者表示，他们的商业联系人报告称，存在与关税无关的持续投入成本压力，但其中一些与 会者指出，需求疲软限制了一些企业提价的能力，或者企业生产率的提高可能使一些企业能够应对这些 成本压力。大多数与会者预计住房服务通胀将继续下降，少数与会者预计核心非住房服务通胀也将继续 下降。与会者普遍认为，通胀风险仍然偏向上行，尽管一些与会者表示，他们认为这些上行风险已经有 所降低。一些与会者强调，通胀率可能比预期更持久的风险值得关注。 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 美联储会议纪要提到，在讨论可能影响货币政策前景的风险管理因素时，与会者普遍认为，通胀上行风 险仍然较高，而就业下行风险也较高，且自2025年中期以来有所上升。大多数与会者指出，转向更为中 性的政策立场将有助于防止劳动力市场状况出现重大恶化。这些与会者中的许多人还认为，现有证据表 明，关税导致持续通胀压力的可能性有所降低。相比之下，一些与会者指出通胀上升风险可能根深蒂 固，并认为在通胀数据居高不下的情况下，进一步降低政策利率可能会被误解为政策制定者对2%的通 胀目标承诺有所减弱。 ...