Group 1 - The latest gold futures price for December delivery is reported at $3991.7 per ounce, with a slight decline of $1.2, while COMEX gold futures show a price of 4008.50 yuan per gram, reflecting a 0.59% increase [1][3] - The U.S. government shutdown has created a political deadlock, leading to investor concerns about potential economic consequences, which has negatively impacted gold prices after a period of strong gains [1] - The next upward target for December gold futures is to close above the strong resistance level of $4100.00, while the recent downward target for bears is to push prices below the solid support level of $3800.00 [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is set to reduce flights at high-traffic airports by 10% to alleviate pressure on the aviation system, a necessary measure for maintaining safety [2] - In October, the number of layoffs in the U.S. reached the highest level for the same month in 22 years, primarily driven by the impact of artificial intelligence, with the technology and warehousing sectors being the most affected [2] - Year-to-date, layoffs in the U.S. have exceeded one million, with recruitment plans at their lowest since 2011, and seasonal hiring plans hitting a new low [2]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.84%, the S&P 500 dropping by 1.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreasing by 1.90% [1][2] - European markets also faced downturns, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.42%, the DAX 30 down by 1.19%, and the CAC 40 down by 1.38% [2] Economic Indicators - Concerns over the job market intensified, with US companies laying off a total of 153,074 workers in October, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times the number from the same month last year, marking the highest October layoffs since 2022 [3] - The US non-farm employment decreased by 9,100 in October, following a previous increase of 33,000 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's officials expressed mixed signals regarding future interest rate cuts, contributing to market volatility [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 70.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 29.4% [4] Commodity Market - Domestic and international soybean prices have seen significant increases since October 15, driven by expectations of Chinese trade purchases [5] - The price of US soybeans reached a 15-month high, surpassing 1,100 cents per bushel, with a notable increase in procurement rates for December shipments [5] - However, the current pricing dynamics suggest that US soybeans may lack competitiveness compared to Brazilian soybeans due to higher import costs [6] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that US soybean prices will remain strong, with attention on the USDA's November supply and demand report expected to lower projections for soybean yield, total exports, and final inventory [6] - The domestic soybean meal market faces dual pressures from high crushing volumes and overseas procurement hedging [6] - The outlook for soybean oil is less affected by US-China trade policies, primarily following the trends of the oilseed sector, with limited downside potential due to current low prices [7]

特朗普刚从韩国釜山带着与中国达成的关税协议回国，就遭遇了尴尬一幕：美国参议院以51对47的票数通过决议，要终止他的全球关税政策。 让他难堪的 是，投下赞成票的包括四名共和党议员，他的自己人。 这个戏剧性场面发生在2025年10月30日，特朗普结束中美会谈后不久。 他刚刚宣布将对中国关税从57%降至47%，取消了引发争议的"芬太尼关税"，并将 24%的"对等关税"暂停一年。 约75万联邦雇员受到停摆影响，其中38万人被迫无薪休假，37万人无薪工作，还有超过4000名合同工被裁员。 最严重的是，补充营养援助计划（SNAP）的 资金从11月1日起中断，影响全美约4100万低收入人群。 纽约州州长凯西·霍楚尔被迫宣布紧急状态，从州预算中拨出6500万美元，确保300万受影响居民能 继续获得食品券。 军人家庭也未能幸免。 停摆导致130多万现役军人和预备役人员工资停发。 特朗普指示国防部长优先保证军人薪资，并称有富商朋友捐赠1.3亿美元，但这 笔捐款至今未到位，支票仍卡在官僚程序中。 许多军人家属在社交媒体上抱怨，士兵在海外执行任务，家中却无力支付账单。 参议院的这一决议并非孤立事件。 此前两天，他们已先后终止了对巴西 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, with several justices expressing skepticism about the administration's use of a 50-year-old law to justify these tariffs [1][2] - Trump's administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to implement tariffs, a move that has not been previously used by any president [1] - The Supreme Court's decision could take weeks or months, and even if the administration loses, it may still pursue tariffs under other legal frameworks [3] Group 1 - The Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments regarding the legality of Trump's tariff policy, with both conservative and liberal justices raising pointed questions [1][2] - The administration's reliance on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has been challenged by businesses and states, leading to previous court rulings against the policy [1] - Trump's comments indicate that a loss in court would have "devastating" consequences, highlighting the high stakes involved in the case [1][3] Group 2 - The Supreme Court consists of nine justices, with a majority being conservative, which may influence the outcome of the case [2][3] - Even if the Supreme Court limits the administration's power to impose tariffs, it is unlikely to completely eliminate the comprehensive tariff policy [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that the administration may continue to use other legal authorities to maintain tariff policies if the current ones are overturned [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, with potential significant consequences if the government loses the case [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump's tariff policy, with oral arguments lasting two and a half hours, during which both conservative and liberal justices raised sharp questions about the administration's legal basis [1]. - Trump's administration is defending its tariff policy by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, which allows the president to regulate imports in certain emergencies [1][4]. - Previous court rulings have deemed the use of this act for implementing comprehensive tariffs as illegal [1]. Group 2: Political Implications - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it could lead to significant restrictions on the current tariff policy, although it may not completely eliminate it [2][4]. - Trump's absence from the court proceedings was noted, as he expressed concerns about distracting from the case's importance [4]. - The administration's reliance on other legal frameworks to maintain tariff policies, regardless of the court's decision, has been highlighted by economic analysts [4]. Group 3: Court Composition - The Supreme Court consists of nine justices, with six being conservative and three liberal, which influences the potential outcomes of the case [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly recommending investments in the white goods sector due to its low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [3][20]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-oriented companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment poised for growth due to increased demand [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July to September 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [9][10]. 2. Q3 2025 Revenue and Profit Growth - The home appliance industry saw a total revenue of 356.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 4.57% increase year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 30.158 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% growth [3][20]. 3. Subsector Performance 3.1 White Goods - The white goods sector achieved a revenue of 254.924 billion yuan, up 5.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 25.049 billion yuan, a growth of 3.42% [40][41]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector reported a revenue decline of 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 18.66% to 548 million yuan [47][48]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances saw a revenue increase of 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with a net profit rise of 2.13% to 2.201 billion yuan [53][54]. 3.4 Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan and a significant net profit drop of 28.12% to 332 million yuan [59][61]. 3.5 Components - The components sector reported a revenue increase of 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 29.07% to 2.027 billion yuan [64][65]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report highlights key companies for investment, including Midea, Haier, and Gree in the white goods sector, as well as Ousheng Electric and Shun'an Environment in the components sector [3][4][5]. 5. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the home appliance sector driven by domestic trade-in policies and recovering overseas demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for the industry in 2025 [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Paul Krugman criticizes Trump's erratic behavior in trade negotiations, suggesting that he has squandered opportunities despite having a strong hand [1][3] - Krugman highlights three main criticisms: Trump's tariff policies create unnecessary enemies, his investment policies are inconsistent and hinder long-term planning, and the government lacks clear objectives leading to chaos [3] - Krugman contrasts the U.S. approach with China's more stable and business-focused diplomatic and investment strategies, implying that the U.S. could benefit from a similar approach [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that Trump's actions are driven by populist sentiments rather than long-term national interests, appealing to a specific voter base that prioritizes immediate gratification over strategic planning [5] - The commentary indicates that the current political landscape in the U.S. is chaotic, with both parties undermining each other rather than working collaboratively, leading to instability [6] - In comparison to other countries, the commentary argues that despite China's high debt and investment levels, it has tangible infrastructure and industrial outputs, while other nations struggle to show similar results [7]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - UBS suggests that if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes, which is 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025. This could lead to a structural low-tariff trade environment, enhancing household purchasing power and easing inflationary pressures, thus providing the Federal Reserve with more room for rate cuts [1] - Barclays indicates that if repo rates remain above the effective federal funds rate target range for several weeks, the Federal Reserve may need to intervene by increasing reserves through more repo lending or direct purchases of Treasury securities [2] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on US Treasuries, highlighting that the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact market volatility and the yield curve [2] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Danske Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with a close vote of 5-4. The cooling labor market is noted, but not at a concerning pace. Key votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor will be crucial [3] - Analysts from London Capital Group expect the Bank of England to keep the base rate at 4.0% pending details from the upcoming budget announcement, as uncertainty in new policy measures is suppressing economic activity [4] - Berenberg economists predict that potential tax increases in the UK budget could pave the way for further rate cuts next year, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points to 3.50% anticipated if fiscal tightening is implemented [4] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone retail sales for September fell short of expectations, primarily due to a 0.2% decline in non-food sales, while food sales remained stable. This lagging data is not expected to influence the European Central Bank's policy outlook [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Rhine Biotech's overseas business revenue accounted for 61.23% in the first half of the year, with the United States being a significant market [1] - The reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. is expected to lower the company's export product costs, enhancing price competitiveness in the U.S. market and increasing profit elasticity [1] - The company will continue to closely monitor changes in tariff policies [1]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...