当地时间14日，巴西成立"谈判与经贸对策委员会"，评估美国总统特朗普宣布对巴西征收50%关税对本 国经济可能造成的影响，并讨论潜在的应对措施。巴西副总统兼发展、工业与贸易部长阿尔克明在14日 召开的记者会上表示，委员会将于当地时间15日同工业和农业部门举行两场会议。阿尔克明表示，与出 口商开展广泛对话是巴西政府应对特朗普政府关税政策的第一步。他表示，如果美国关税政策生效，那 么巴西将采取反制措施。该委员会由阿尔克明担任主席。巴西总统卢拉也将通过这一委员会与部分企业 家会面。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the implementation of unprecedented tariff policies by President Trump in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock and bond markets have shown strong performance, indicating that investors are not overly reacting to these "dramatic" policies [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen by 6.6% year-to-date, closing only 0.2% below its all-time high set on July 10 [1]. - The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) has recorded a year-to-date return of 3.2%, contributing to market confidence [1]. Economic Impact - David Kelly from JPMorgan Asset Management noted that the U.S. market has become more resilient to policy changes, with minimal actual impact on the economy and markets so far [2]. - The anticipated effects of tariffs on fiscal revenue are expected to manifest by November, as there is a lag in the actual collection of tariffs due to timing differences in cargo departures [2]. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation - Investors are closely monitoring whether retail companies will pass on higher import costs to consumers, with the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a key focus [3]. - Kelly indicated that the CPI data may only reflect the initial wave of tariff impacts, with most inflation effects expected to emerge in the coming months [3]. Policy Effects and Recommendations - The tightening of policies, including immigration and federal layoffs, may negatively affect consumption, corporate behavior, and the job market in the future [3]. - Kelly advised maintaining a balanced asset allocation to prepare for the gradual impact of policies introduced in the first half of the year [3].

7月14日深夜，特朗普公布了对俄罗斯的重大声明具体如下： 而针对于特朗普为什么要向俄罗斯征税这件事情？美国退役空军军官兼前美国国防部分析师凯伦·克维 亚特科夫斯基指出以下3点 1、特朗普建议北约以及欧盟国家向乌克兰转交爱国者防空系统违背了他们的心意，会让他们对美国更 加的不满 2、同时克维亚特科夫斯基指出，即使乌克兰与爱国者系统也不能免于被炸，因为爱国者对于"榛树"高 超音速导弹，无人机毫无用处，只能成为俄罗斯摧毁的目标 不管怎么样，特朗普表示他不愿意对俄罗斯展开制裁，更不愿意制裁俄罗斯的伙伴国，他相信俄罗斯会 和乌克兰达成协议。 那么特朗普的关税政策，对于普京来说又会有什么样的影响呢？要知道在最近的三年俄罗斯和美国几乎 已经断交。双方之间的来往和贸易更是降到了冰点。2024年底两国之间的贸易仅有34亿元。除了必须来 往的能不来往的就全部都断了。 1、普京在50天未和乌克兰达成一致的话，俄罗斯及其贸易伙伴将会被征收100%关税。 2、美国愿意向乌克兰提供武器，但是由欧洲人进行买单 3、移交的武器中含有17套爱国者防空系统，声明这些武器将由美国驻北约代表进行分配。 这种制裁对于俄罗斯来说几乎是没有用的。更是让普 ...

【导读】美国总统特朗普：美国将向北约提供数十亿美元的军事装备，乌克兰将从北约获取军事装备 中国基金报记者泰勒 白宫称此举是重大政策转变，意在迫使普京结束敌对行动。但此决定的细节也反映了特朗普的优先考虑：这不会花费美国任何资金，至 少目前不会为乌克兰投入新的美国资金。 特朗普说："我对普京总统感到失望，因为我原以为两个月前我们就能达成协议，但现在看来并没有。所以基于这个情况，如果50天内还 没有协议，我们就会实施'二级'关税。" 白宫尚未立即解释特朗普设想的"二级"关税计划会如何具体实施，不过特朗普此前曾暗示，这些关税将主要针对那些购买俄罗斯石油的 国家。 从特朗普最近几周的表态可以清楚看出，他对普京的耐心已经逐渐耗尽。特朗普在任期最初几个月主要把不满指向乌克兰总统泽连斯 基，但如今他越来越因普京依然拒绝停火要求而感到沮丧。 吕特表示，北约将与盟友协调，为乌克兰提供其所需的武器，包括防空设备、导弹和弹药。根据吕特的说法，德国将发挥重要作用，芬 兰、丹麦、瑞典、挪威、荷兰和加拿大也将参与其中。 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的消息！ 特朗普要对俄罗斯动手了 北京7月14日晚间，美国总统特朗普会见北约秘书长吕特。 特 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on various countries, including a 100% tariff on Russian goods, which led to a more than 1% drop in WTI crude oil futures [1] - Trump also announced a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico and the EU, and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1 [1] - Brazil's Vice President criticized the new tariffs, stating that Brazil is not the issue for the U.S. and that the trade relationship is generally favorable for the U.S. [1] - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which Brazil's officials deem unfair [1] - A letter was sent to Sri Lanka indicating a 30% tariff on all Sri Lankan products starting August 1, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Additional letters were sent to Brunei, Algeria, Moldova, Iraq, the Philippines, and Libya, announcing tariffs ranging from 20% to 30% on their products starting August 1, 2025 [2]

2025.07. 14 本文字数：394，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻，当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普称，美国上月通过关税政策获得250亿美元收入， 主要来自汽车、铝、钢和木材等商品，并强调"这仅仅是个开始"。特朗普还称美国关税收入将在未 来一个月内达到"强劲水平"。 不少网友对此评论称， "美国人民真的能看到这笔钱吗""支付这些关税的是美国人民" 。 微信编辑 | 夏木 推荐阅读 Labubu韩国门店大排长龙，警察出动维护秩序！泡泡玛特决定：中止韩国线下销售 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对 象征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 近日，特朗普先后致信20多个国家领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收新关税。他还宣布，从 8月1日起对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的关税。 ...

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.07% to 4017.67 [1][2] - The bond market showed a weak trend with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.88% [2][7] Overseas Market Influences - The overseas market was affected by tariff policies, with copper prices under pressure due to a 30% tariff announced by the US on the EU and Mexico, while oil prices rose approximately 1.5% due to positive signals from OPEC+ regarding strong demand in Q3 [3] Domestic Commodity Trends - The "anti-involution" policy led to a cooling in trading, with black commodities continuing to rise but at a reduced rate. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 1.15% and 1.09% respectively, while iron ore and rebar saw smaller gains between 0.1% and 0.3% [4] - The photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices increasing by 0.81% and 3.27% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank increased reverse repos to support liquidity, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan on a single day, although funding rates continued to rise due to the approaching tax period [5][6] - The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout repo operation indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite the tightening conditions [6] Equity Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market rose by 0.17% with a trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited clearer market narratives [8] - Bank stocks exhibited volatility, with potential fluctuations expected around upcoming equity registration dates [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.26% and 0.67% respectively, with significant inflows into stocks like Meituan and Alibaba, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [10]

在月初出人意料的强劲非农就业报告发布之后，随着上周末特朗普发信函给各国威胁进一步加征关税令 通胀前景面临重大不确定性，全球交易员们对于美联储降息预期可谓出现大幅降温，这也导致国债期货 交易员们一直在解除对于美国国债市场的一些大额看涨押注。 美联储自去年12月以来一直维系基准利率不变，以鲍威尔为代表的美联储官员均在采访中透露出谨慎 的"观望立场"，而不是像沃勒与鲍曼那样支持7月降息。鲍威尔上月对国会立法者们表示，若不是由于 关税带来的未来价格前景不确定性，基于通胀下降的情况，美联储现在本应已经开始降息。他也警告 称，目前尚无必要仓促调整利率政策。此外，鲍威尔还表示，预计今年夏天会看到通胀读数上升。不过 鲍威尔在近期的讲话中也坦言，通胀的上升幅度、时间点与持续性存在高度不确定性。 SOFR期权市场的交易数据显示，期权交易员们普遍押注今年美联储首次降息将是9月，并且交易员们预 计今年累计降息50个基点，每次降息25个基点——押注第二次降息出现在12月。 智通财经APP获悉，2026年美联储FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在支持美联储重新 开启降息路径之前，她希望看到通胀进一步显著回落。哈马克周一在接 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Fundamentally, the Fed's policy shift to easing after its June meeting minutes, with most expecting two rate cuts this year and a high probability in September, boosts precious metal prices. Trade tensions and tariff policies increase the demand and safe - haven premium for gold, while silver benefits from strong industrial demand and financial attributes due to a 50% tariff on copper and Fed rate - cut expectations [2]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories declined, global gold reserves continued to rise, China's central bank increased gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, ETF fund inflows into gold and silver slowed, and hedge funds increased their long - position in gold [2]. - For strategies, the price of Shanghai gold is long - term bullish, with short - term high - level oscillations. Mid - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver shows a slight short - term increase, and mid - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or buy when it dips to the lower edge of the oscillation range [2]. Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: The spot price of London gold increased by 0.61%, COMEX gold futures by 0.71%, while the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 0.33%. The spot price of London silver rose by 1.67%, COMEX silver futures by 5.22%, and the Shanghai silver main contract by 1.36%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.10% and 0.87% respectively. COMEX gold total positions increased by 1.25%, and speculative net long positions by 0.49%. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 0.47%, and speculative net long positions by 7.70% [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Both the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios decreased last week, approaching 80 but still significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price is undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper may increase silver demand, and the silver price has upward potential [8]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver narrowed last week. Affected by US tariff policies, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and precious metal prices were boosted [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rebounded slightly after hitting a low but remained below 98. A stronger US dollar exerts some upward pressure on precious metals, while trade tensions support precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries increased last week. Market expectations of a looser Fed policy provide a lower - bound support for precious metal prices [14]. - **Inflation and Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: In May, the rebound of commodity inflation was lower than expected. The Fed's internal views on tariff - driven inflation are divided, and most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, which supports precious metal prices [19]. - **US Key Economic Data**: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the service PMI was 50.8, both better than expected. Retail and food service sales declined year - on - year. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the PCE price index by 2.3%, and CPI inflation remained stable. In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, non - farm employment increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. In May, job vacancies unexpectedly rose to 7.77 million [22][25][28]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends**: 32% of central banks plan to increase gold investment in the next 12 - 24 months. In Q1 2025, global central banks net - bought 244 tons of gold. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and central bank gold - buying supports precious metal prices [29]. - **Fed June Meeting Minutes**: There were significant differences among participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a high probability in September [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US sent tariff letters to trading partners, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. The 50% tariff on copper provides an opportunity for silver to make up for lost ground [31]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 10,000 lots to 203,000 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 49,000 lots to 58,500 lots [34]. - **ETF Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14,758.52 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed [35]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 36.7471 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.87% to 494.9197 million ounces. Silver has room for continuous price increases due to industrial demand [39]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased slightly year - on - year, and the global silver shortage is expected to narrow in 2025 [43]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, important events include China's press conference on H1 2025 import and export, US CPI, PPI, and other economic data, which will provide more basis for the Fed's monetary policy [45][46].