Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters and potential false statements made to Congress about the project's scale [2] - Powell stated that the investigation undermines the Fed's independence in setting interest rates, raising concerns about whether monetary policy will be influenced by political pressure [2][3] - Economists believe that this investigation could have significant implications for consumers' finances, as it may affect inflation and interest rates [3][4] Group 2 - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi highlighted that rising inflation poses a "fatal weakness" for existing bond investors, as it diminishes the real value of bond income streams [3] - Analysts express concerns that the investigation could lead to rising interest rates, which may counteract efforts to lower mortgage rates and negatively impact the economy [3][4] - Historical precedents show that political pressure on the Fed can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, as seen during Nixon's presidency, which resulted in high inflation and stagnation in the 1970s [6][7]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被重创，全球地缘问题升级。国际局势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买 | | | | 黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。【1000-1060】 | | 白银 | | 尽管短期 COMEX 白银有较大仓位持仓抛压，但是避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期 | | | 长期持有 | 持续。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变【19000-22500】。继续关注海外市场调仓风险。 | | | | 鲍威尔面临刑事诉讼，市场担心美联储独立性丧失，美元走弱，美国虹吸全球铜资 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 源，短期铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，回调逢低试多。中长期对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | ★ | | | | | | 关注区间【101500，105500】 | | | | 美元走弱，伦锌拉涨超 2%，沪锌跟涨站稳 2 万 4，短期锌供需双弱，宏观和市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 12⽉美国核⼼通胀低于预期，实际利率下⾏环境延续；与此同时，围绕美 联储独⽴性的政治与司法不确定性反复发酵，美元信⽤与政策可信度再度 成为市场定价核⼼变量，贵⾦属在宏观与制度两条逻辑⽀撑下维持强势。 重点资讯： 1）全球央行集体表态力挺 杰罗姆·鲍威尔，欧洲央行、英国央行、 加拿大央行等罕见联合发声强调央行独立性是金融稳定基石，凸显市 场对美联储货币自主权被削弱的系统性担忧快速升温。 2）伊朗国内抗议升级为高烈度人道风险事件，人权组织估计死亡人 数或达数千人并警告大规模法外处决风险，进一步放大中东地区政治 与安全不确定性。 3）在美国持续加压背景下伊朗释放被扣油轮迹象显现，一艘两年前 扣押的油轮现身阿曼近海，显示地缘博弈边际缓和但能源通道与制裁 风险仍具反复性。 价格逻辑： 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-14 美国核⼼通胀不及预期，⾦银延续强势 研究员： 黄金：通胀回落提供基本面缓冲，制度不确定性抬升风险溢价。12月 美国核心CPI环比0.2%，同比2.6%，持平四年低位，显示通胀趋势继 续降温。在通胀约束边际缓解的同时，市场对美联储独立性与未来利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the Fed's independence being undermined and the weakening of inflation data, the prices of gold and silver are strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 980 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19050 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.14% to 1031.00 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.14% to 21943.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 86.86 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.18 [2] - The US CPI data released last night was lower than expected. The year - on - year value of the US CPI in December was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The year - on - year value of the US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [2] - The decline in the overall CPI mainly came from the energy - related commodity sub - item, with a year - on - year value of - 3.0% and a month - on - month value of - 0.4%. In the core CPI data, the year - on - year item of rent generally changed little from the previous value. Affected by the Christmas holiday, the decline in the prices of accommodation and air tickets slowed down. The price of medical insurance showed a marginal decline, with the month - on - month value of the health insurance sub - item recording - 1.1% [2] 3.2 Gold and Silver Data Summary - **Gold**: - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract was 4594.40 US dollars/ounce, down 0.31% from the previous day; the trading volume was 24.91 million lots, down 11.63%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 48.81 million lots, up 1.30%; the inventory was 1129 tons, down 0.04% [6] - LBMA gold: The closing price was 4623.05 US dollars/ounce, up 0.22% [6] - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1027.18 yuan/gram, up 0.09%; the trading volume was 37.08 million lots, down 12.15%; the position was 33.65 million lots, up 0.93%; the inventory was 98.28 tons, up 0.65%; the precipitation funds were 55.305 billion yuan, an inflow of 1.02% [6] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1025.52 yuan/gram, up 0.33%; the trading volume was 58.00 tons, up 1.00%; the position was 187.16 tons, down 0.27% [6] - **Silver**: - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract was 86.86 US dollars/ounce, up 2.00%; the position (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) was 15.32 million lots, down 2.64%; the inventory was 13551 tons, down 0.41% [6] - LBMA silver: The closing price was 85.82 US dollars/ounce, up 2.08% [6] - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract was 21004.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.28%; the trading volume was 238.26 million lots, down 3.72%; the position was 71.83 million lots, up 0.50%; the inventory was 630.07 tons, down 3.01%; the precipitation funds were 40.737 billion yuan, an inflow of 0.78% [6] - AgT + D: The closing price was 21048.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.70%; the trading volume was 700.30 tons, up 70.30%; the position was 3081.116 tons, up 1.27% [6] 3.3 Gold and Silver Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and actual interest rate, the relationship between Shanghai gold price and trading volume, etc. [8][11][12][15] 3.4 Gold and Silver Near - Far Month Structure and Spread Charts - There are charts showing the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and Shanghai silver, as well as the spread between London gold and COMEX gold, and the spread between London silver and COMEX silver [22][23][36][39] 3.5 Management Fund Net Long Positions and ETF Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][42] 3.6 Gold and Silver Internal - External Spread Statistics - The internal - external spreads of gold and silver on January 13, 2026 are calculated, including the spreads between SHFE and COMEX, and between SGE and LBMA [53]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are emerging as a new uncertainty factor that could impact the risk premium of U.S. dollar assets in the long term [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures on COMEX reached a historical high of $4,640 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop in about three weeks, indicating a strong safe-haven buying interest in precious metals [2]. - The current market response is relatively restrained, reflected in a slight steepening of the yield curve and a weaker dollar, suggesting a marginal repricing of risk premiums related to institutional uncertainty rather than a substantial reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - If the debate over the Federal Reserve's independence continues, it may elevate the risk compensation required for U.S. assets in the medium to long term, providing a rationale for global investors to diversify away from dollar and U.S. Treasury allocations [3]. - Investment professionals believe that the limited volatility in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries indicates that investors do not view the current events as a direct threat to monetary policy but rather as a potential institutional risk that has yet to materialize [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The discussion of "selling America" resurfaced, reminiscent of the market volatility triggered by tariffs last year, where major U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 4.8% in a single day [4]. - Even if U.S. assets face higher risk premium demands, it is suggested that capital may not exit rapidly but rather undergo gradual adjustments in allocation structures [4][5]. Group 4: Broader Economic Factors - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence are providing investors with another reason to diversify away from dollar assets, despite ongoing support for U.S. assets from factors such as economic resilience, easing inflation pressures, and momentum from AI-related capital investments [5]. - Fitch Ratings emphasized that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a crucial factor supporting its AA+ sovereign credit rating for the U.S. [5].

摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）周二在财报电话会议上发出警告，称特朗普政府对美联储的 攻击可能会适得其反，进而推高借贷成本和通胀。 戴蒙明确表示，他全力支持央行的独立性，并对美联储主席鲍威尔个人怀有"极大的敬意"。他指 出："任何削弱（美联储独立性）的做法可能都不是个好主意。在我看来，这会产生相反的后果。它将 提高通胀预期，并可能随着时间的推移推高利率。" 这一言论发表之际，市场正密切关注美联储与白宫之间日益紧张的关系。此前几天，鲍威尔透露自己正 受到特朗普政府司法部的刑事调查。对此，特朗普周二回应称，他认为自己的做法没有问题，并反击 称："我们应该降低利率。Jamie 戴蒙可能想要更高的利率。也许那样他能赚更多的钱。" 捍卫央行独立性 华尔街其他高管也表达了担忧。纽约梅隆银行首席执行官Robin Vince指出，侵蚀美联储独立性与白宫 改善消费者负担能力的愿望背道而驰。Vince表示："质疑债券市场的基本原则之一，实际上冒着适得其 反的风险，可能会推高利率，因为市场不得不担心一些坦率地说本不该担心的事情。" 摩根大通首席财务官Jeremy Barnum也附和了戴蒙的警告，称更大的问题在于"对 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 资料图，图片来源：视觉中国 在被问及这一前所未有的调查是否会削弱外界对长期独立于行政部门之外的美联储的信心时，特朗普作出了上述攻击性表态。 当地时间1月13日，美股三大指数齐跌。道指下跌398.21点，跌幅0.80%；纳指跌0.1%，标普500指数跌0.19%。 银行股普跌，KBW银行指数下跌1.3%，摩根大通下跌4.2%。科技股涨跌互现，英特尔涨超7%并创近两年新高，AMD涨超6%，Meta、亚马逊、微软跌超 1%。 当地时间13日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，同比上涨 2.6%。 另据央视新闻，当地时间1月13日，美国财政部表示，受支出创纪录及福利支付时间调整影响，美国政府2025年12月录得1450亿美元财政赤字，同比增加 67%，创下该月份历史新高。 据报道，美国总统特朗普周二再度猛烈抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其"要么无能，要么腐败"，并放话"那个混蛋很快就要走人了"。此举发生之际，美国司 法部针对这位央行掌门人的刑事调查正面临越来越多的反对声音，引发外界对美联储独立性受损的担忧。 特朗普回答称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on January 21 regarding the case against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is expected to have significant implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political influence over monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The Supreme Court will hear arguments about whether the President can remove Federal Reserve officials "for cause," which could set a critical legal precedent affecting the structure of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. - If the court rules against Cook, it could increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell being removed due to the ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets have reacted to the developments, with traders betting that the Federal Reserve will not take action in its upcoming policy meeting, pushing expectations for the next rate cut to June [2]. - The market has shown a clear directional response, with declines in the dollar, stock market, and bonds, indicating how the market may digest this long-term risk if the situation escalates [2]. Group 3: Structural Risks - The potential outcome of the Cook case could lead to a Federal Reserve composed of more dovish members, which may not respond appropriately to economic cycles, resulting in severe structural costs for the market [6]. - If the court supports the President's ability to dismiss Cook, it could lead to a broader erosion of checks on executive power, impacting the Federal Reserve's independence [5][6]. Group 4: Powell's Position - Powell may decide to remain on the Federal Reserve Board beyond his term as Chair, which ends in May, as a response to the pressure from the Trump administration [7]. - The probability of Powell continuing to serve on the Federal Reserve Board after his Chair term has increased to over 55%, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding his departure [7].

来源：每日经济新闻 鲍威尔图片来源：新华社发 一纸大陪审团传票，让鲍威尔成为首位遭刑事调查的在任美联储掌舵人。 这场由美联储总部翻新工程超支引发的风波，已演变为一场围绕货币政策主导权与美联储独立性的激烈 博弈。 随着共和党内部就调查事件出现"倒戈"情况，有参议员直接表示，将反对特朗普所有提名人选。参议院 是否将对下一任美联储主席提名和投票流程按下"暂停键"？下一任美联储主席是否会因此陷入"难产"困 局？ 鲍威尔的强硬姿态，是否预示着他将打破惯例留任理事？如果下一任美联储主席提名在参议院投票陷入 僵局，鲍威尔是否会成为美联储时隔47年以来的又一位"临时主席"？ 此外，据智通财经消息，1月13日，全球央行行长发表联合声明，声援美联储主席鲍威尔。多国央行行 长在声明表示，其与美联储体系及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔"站在同一战线"。声明中提到："中央银行的独 立性是我们服务的公民获得价格、金融与经济稳定的基石。因此，必须在充分尊重法治与民主问责的前 提下，坚决维护这种独立性。"上述声明由欧洲中央银行行长、英格兰银行行长、瑞典中央银行行长、 丹麦国家银行董事会主席、瑞士国家银行管理委员会主席、澳大利亚储备银行行长、加拿大银行 ...

此外，当地时间12日，美国十余名曾在财经界担任要职的人士也发表联合声明，批评特朗普政府对鲍威 尔发起刑事调查。签署这一声明的包括多名美联储前主席、美国财政部前部长和白宫经济顾问委员会前 主席。 声明说，美联储的独立性对美国经济表现至关重要，而对鲍威尔的刑事调查企图利用检方调查削弱美联 储的独立性。声明强调，法治是美国经济成功的根基，并警告说，这种前所未有的做法可能给通胀形势 和整体经济运行带来极为不利的影响。 孙伏鲲表示，鲍威尔遭刑事调查，是一场针对美联储独立性的"压力测试"，其根源在于特朗普对现行高 利率政策的不满。尽管此举未能改变美元走弱的大趋势，但确实导致了部分大类资产定价出现偏移。当 美元作为全球资产定价"基石"的地位受到质疑时，黄金等传统避险资产自然会成为资金的避风港。全球 央行持续增持黄金储备的行为反映了长期投资者的资产配置已经出现结构性转变。 美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查一事继续发酵！ 环球时报援引美国《华尔街日报》13日报道，9位央行行长"史无前例地"发表联合声明，强调维护美联 储的独立性"至关重要"。 华源期货孙伏鲲和实盘大赛金牌导师王志新在期货日报的直播节目中对事件的深层影响进行了全面解 读 ...