玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/14 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1200-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻璃 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1070-1110 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The global trade environment is deteriorating, leading to a restructuring of supply chains and increased risks for companies [1] - Companies must enhance market competitiveness, maintain cash flow stability, secure raw material supply, and expand sales channels to survive [1] - Traditional business models are inadequate in the current risk-laden environment, making futures tools essential for survival [1] Group 2 - The evolution of over-the-counter (OTC) options in China reflects the transformation of the futures market in serving the real economy [2] - The futures market has shifted from a single hedging function to building an ecosystem for risk management [2] - Risk management subsidiaries of futures companies play a crucial role by providing diverse risk solutions, integrating risk management into various business processes [2] Group 3 - Recent tariff disruptions have highlighted the need for companies to upgrade their risk management strategies [2] - Companies should view options and futures as strategic resources for optimizing business models rather than merely as cost avoidance tools [2] - The introduction of more futures and options products will provide companies with safer and more efficient risk management tools [2]

监控中心称，实体企业是期货公司风险管理子公司场外衍生品交易业务服务的第一大客户群体，其中 95%以上为民营中小微企业。记者了解到，究其原因，是因为传统期货合约的标准化模式难以满足中小 企业的个性化需求，而场外衍生品可以灵活设计，能够针对特定原材料的价格波动、汇率风险提供精准 的对冲方案。 "现货企业的生产经营具有持续性，不能轻易停止或减量。无论市场行情多么极端，现货企业都要被动 地持有头寸，因此面临着诸多风险，对企业的风险管理有着更高的要求。其中，民营中小微企业在面对 风险时往往更为'脆弱'。"恒力衍生品学院院长管大宇告诉记者，在此情况下，场外衍生品可以为民营 中小微企业提供有效的解决方案。 近期，面对外部冲击和市场剧烈波动，实体企业如何对冲风险、平滑波动受到广泛关注。中国期货市场 监控中心（下称监控中心）5月12日发文称，期货公司风险管理子公司场外衍生品交易业务规模自2025 年年初以来增长了8.8%，为满足实体企业个性化、精细化的风险管理需求，帮助其应对美国发动的关 税战、贸易战，发挥了应有的、独特的作用。 不少业内人士纷纷告诉期货日报记者，在今年贸易环境的急剧变化下，期货公司风险管理子公司提供的 定制化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by the US tariff increase on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. With the expectation of trade relaxation, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period due to the resilience of filament and better - than - expected bottle - chip exports. After the Sino - US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term, and the strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of textile and clothing export orders have pushed up the prices of raw materials [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol (EG) | 3900 - 4500 | 30.73% | 91.3% | | PX | 5800 - 6600 | 44.15% | 99.4% | | PTA | 4100 - 4800 | 39.28% | 93.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5400 - 6100 | 31.25% | 98.6% | [3] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Short EG futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs | EG2509 | Sell | 25% | 4400 - 4450 | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2509P4200<br>EG2509C4450 | Buy<br>Sell | 50% | 40 - 50<br>90 - 110 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to lock in procurement costs | Short | Buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs | EG2509 | Buy | 50% | 4250 - 4300 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to reduce procurement costs | Short | Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in purchase price if price drops | EG2509P4200 | Sell | 75% | 70 - 90 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff increases on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, due to concentrated maintenance of PX, TA, and EG, supply contracted, and the willingness to hold goods strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period, and it is expected to remain high in the short term after the joint statement. The strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of export orders have pushed up raw material prices [4] 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - Polyester profit margins are continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [8] - The price of动力煤 on the cost side is continuously weakening, weakening cost support [8] - The profit margins of all EG production routes have been significantly repaired, and the valuation has risen from a low level [8] 3.6 Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester products on May 13, 2025, May 12, 2025, and May 6, 2025, as well as daily and weekly changes [6][9] - It also provides spread data such as basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees [9] - The report shows the production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips [10]

source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7100-7700 | 35.25% | 94.8% | 苯乙烯风险管理日报 3、下午开盘后市场开始传恒力裂解装置突发故障，紧急停车导致其下游72万吨苯乙烯装置需要提前检 修，检修时长为一个月，该装置原计划是在6月下旬检修，若消息属实将加剧苯乙烯缺货程度。 【利空解读】 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous transfer of non-performing assets by consumer finance institutions indicates significant pressure on performance, non-performing loans, and collection efforts, particularly for South Silver France Consumer Finance, which is seeking to offload short-term overdue assets to alleviate these pressures [4][5][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Asset Transfer Details - South Silver France Consumer Finance announced the transfer of non-performing loans totaling 270 million yuan, including 251 million yuan in principal and 19 million yuan in interest, involving 4,804 loans with an average overdue period of 142 days [3][4]. - The starting price for the asset package is set at 24.62 million yuan, reflecting a discount rate as low as 0.9 [3]. Industry Context - The consumer finance industry has seen increased frequency in asset transfers due to regulatory pressures and the need to manage credit risk, with South Silver France Consumer Finance's total asset transfer for the year reaching 1.124 billion yuan [9]. - The industry has shifted its definition of non-performing loans, extending the overdue period for classification from 60 days to 90 days, indicating a more lenient approach to asset quality assessment [4][9]. Business Performance - South Silver France Consumer Finance has experienced significant growth, with a reported revenue of 4.595 billion yuan in 2024, a 74.52% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 303 million yuan, up 172.97% [6]. - The company’s loan balance reached 50.8 billion yuan, marking a 61% increase, primarily driven by its offline lending product, which constitutes 66.76% of its total loan balance [6]. Risk Management Insights - The rapid transfer of non-performing assets suggests potential weaknesses in customer screening and risk assessment processes within the company's offline business model [5][7]. - Experts recommend that the company enhance its risk management framework, improve customer evaluation methods, and explore diverse strategies for non-performing asset recovery beyond mere transfer [10].

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 短期，一是中美关系走向缓和，PE受宏观情绪带动上涨；二是在集中检修和全密度装置转产的作用下，PE基本面预计边际改善。但中长 期，PE供强需弱格局不变。 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7200- 7250 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚乙烯价 | | | | 70-10 | | | | | 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | L2509C7200 | 卖出 | 50% | 0 | | ...

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12400-13600 | 0.1711 | 0.643 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | 例 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% 13600-13 900 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 CF509C14 | 000 | 卖出 | 75% 200-250 | | 采购管 理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 况进行采购 | 空 | 为了防止棉价上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入郑棉期货，在盘面 采购来提前锁 ...

聚丙烯风险管理日报 聚丙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 6950-7100 | 10.75% | 42.8% | 戴一帆 2025-05-13 17:12:17 source： 南华研究 聚丙烯套保策略表 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 聚丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空聚丙烯期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-7 150 | | ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5700-6000 | 10.69% | 6.9% | | 硅锰 | 5500-6000 | 12.73% | 27.9% | source： 南华研究 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/5/13 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...