Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, primarily driven by U.S. tariff policies, which created both upward and downward pressures on copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Phases - **Phase 1 (Early January to Late March)**: Initial strength in copper prices was attributed to expectations of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, leading to a peak price of 83,000 yuan, the highest in over a year [3] - **Phase 2 (Late March to Early April)**: The implementation of unexpected reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from other countries led to a sharp decline in copper prices, with the lowest point reaching 71,320 yuan, marking an eight-month low [4] - **Phase 3 (Mid-April to Late June)**: Negotiations between the U.S. and other countries created temporary optimism, but ongoing uncertainties kept copper prices in a narrow range, with a gradual recovery influenced by a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [5] Group 2: Tariff Impact and Global Trade - The U.S. tariff policies have increased trade barriers and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened uncertainty in the market, particularly after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [6] - The expectation of tariffs on copper has created a "siphoning effect," where copper flows towards the U.S. due to higher prices, with COMEX copper inventories rising significantly while LME inventories declined [10][12] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing and level of U.S. tariffs on copper continues to influence market dynamics, with traders remaining active in anticipation of policy changes [12] Group 3: Smelting and Processing Fees - The processing fees for copper have dropped to negative values, creating significant pressure on smelting operations, with the processing fee reaching -40 USD per dry ton [9] - Despite the challenges, smelting plants have maintained production through adjustments in raw material sourcing and the contribution of by-product revenues [9] - The long-term contracts for copper concentrate processing fees have been locked in at historical lows, raising concerns about the sustainability of smelting operations moving forward [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, which will continue to affect demand expectations and market sentiment [13] - The tightening supply of copper ore and the operational challenges faced by smelting plants may lead to potential production cuts, which could provide upward support for copper prices [13] - The timing and impact of U.S. tariff policies on copper will be critical to monitor, as the current window for copper flow to the U.S. remains open until definitive measures are enacted [13]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 07 月 06 日 豆粕：关注美国贸易谈判与产区天气，震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（06.30-07.03），美豆期价涨势为主，主要因为：美豆油上涨带动（美国参议院最新税收法案 提出，禁止使用北美以外原料生产的生物燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免）、美国总统特朗普在访问衣阿华州时可 能带来与中国贸易谈判取得进展的消息。美豆产区天气良好预期压制价格涨幅。美豆有 1 笔大额出口销售 订单：7 月 3 日对未知目的地销售 22.6 万吨大豆，2024/25 年度交货。从周 K 线角度，7 月 3 日当周， 美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 2.24%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.46%。 期货研究 充分交易利多影响，因为美豆持续受困于贸易摩擦忧虑。后期若条件具备，其利多影响将会显现。目前而 言，美豆减少种植面积，有利于支撑豆价。5）美豆主产区天气预报：据 7 月 5 日天气预报，未来两周（7 月 6 日～7 月 19 日），美豆主产区降水略偏多、气温逐步上升，影响偏中性。 ...

今天分享的是：2025贸易摩擦与资产配置逻辑：财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦 报告共计：25页 2025贸易摩擦透视：关税政策背后的多方角力与全球影响 当前，全球贸易格局正被一场围绕关税政策的复杂博弈所牵动。美国特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅是其贸易策略的核心，更 深度纠缠于财政平衡、司法争议、货币政策及国际博弈之中，其走向正深刻影响着全球经济的节奏。 关税：特朗普经济政策的"平衡支点" 在特朗普政府的经济框架中，关税政策扮演着特殊角色——它既是贸易保护的工具，也是财政平衡的"调节器"。其核心逻辑是 通过"国内减税、国外加税"的税负转嫁策略，在维持国内减税政策的同时，试图通过关税收入弥补财政缺口。 这一策略的关键载体是"大而美"法案（OBBBA）。政府宣称，该法案通过削减支出和新增关税，能在10年内减少数万亿美元赤 字；但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）却持相反观点，认为法案会扩大赤字。争议的焦点在于基线设定：白宫以"现有政策"为基 准，强调法案的减赤效果；而CBO以"现有法律"为基准，认为法案会加剧赤字。这种分歧凸显了关税对特朗普财政计划的重要 性——若没有关税带来的额外收入，减税政策可能导致赤字大幅扩张 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近期，国际油价面临严峻考验，两大利空消息接踵而至。一方面，OPEC+成员国出人意料地达成超预期增产协议；另一方面，美 国实施高额关税，引发市场对全球贸易和经济增长的担忧。 美国总统于7月4日宣布启动新一轮关税计划，向多个贸易伙伴发出设定新关税税率的信函，其中最高税率可能高达70%，并"十有八九"于8月1日起生效。此 举旨在为美国经济减负，但市场普遍担忧其将扰乱全球供应链，引发对全球贸易和经济增长的不确定性因素的担忧。 分析人士指出，美国关税政策的不确定性可能抑制主要经济体的能源消费，给油价带来额外的下行压力。市场参与者担忧贸易摩擦升级可能拖累全球经济复 苏，进而影响原油需求。本周五，受OPEC+增产预期及美国总统关税威胁双重影响，WTI原油期货价格下跌0.75%，跌破每桶67美元，收于66.50美元。 展望未来，油价走势将取决于OPEC+的后续产量决策、美国总统关税政策的具体落实情况，以及全球经济复苏的实际进程。分析师普遍认为，供应过剩风 险在今年晚些时候可能进一步显现。在供应增加、需求担忧和政策不确定性等多重因素交织下，原油市场短期内或将继续维持震荡格局。(文馨) 当地时间7月5日，O ...

Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Market Impact - Trump's announcement on July 4 regarding unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% has intensified trade tensions, disrupting previous market expectations of easing trade negotiations [2] - Historical data shows that a 10% tariff implemented in April led to a nearly 19% drop in the S&P 500 index, indicating that a potential 70% tariff could have a significantly greater negative impact on the market [2] - The imposition of higher tariffs is expected to increase inflation risks in the U.S. economy and further disrupt supply chains, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Negotiation Stalemates with Trade Partners - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, and India are facing significant challenges, with no breakthroughs achieved, leading to increased market pessimism [3][4] - The EU has indicated that failure to reach an agreement may result in retaliatory measures, while Japan's Prime Minister has labeled U.S. tariffs as a "national crisis" [3][4] - India's response to U.S. tariffs has been to propose retaliatory tariffs, emphasizing that any trade agreement must align with its national interests, further complicating U.S.-India trade relations [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump's encouragement for investors to buy stocks has had a diminishing effect, as market participants are increasingly focusing on fundamental analysis rather than presidential statements [5] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has been influenced by Trump's comments, with Goldman Sachs predicting a rate cut in September due to the lesser-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation [6] - Adjustments in market expectations regarding Fed policy are affecting bond markets, foreign exchange rates, and corporate financing costs, which could have broader implications for investment decisions [6] Group 4: Market Uncertainty and Strategic Recommendations - The unpredictability of Trump's policies and trade negotiations creates a complex market environment, with potential repercussions for global economic growth and corporate profitability [7] - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with trade policies, particularly in sectors like automotive, steel, and electronics that are heavily impacted [8] - Companies should proactively adapt to a high-tariff environment by optimizing supply chains and exploring alternative markets, while policymakers are encouraged to foster multilateral trade negotiations to stabilize the global economy [8]

关税谈判迟迟没有进展，特朗普直接把桌子"掀了"，改沟通为单方面通知，他会从7月4日开始向贸易伙伴发放有关税率的信函，贝森特证明了这一点，暗示 会有将近100个国家面临10%的对等关税税率，新关税会从8月1日开始，表态再引局势紧张，但中国，并不在特朗普这一波蛮横的范畴。 特朗普为何突然改了态度？本质上的原因，还是谈判的不顺利。先说日本，石破茂与特朗普在社交平台上的互呛，其实已瓦解了美日在7月9日前达成全面协 议的可能。 7月1日，特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体放话，彻底撕毁了原有的谈判计划。 他声称没有考虑延长7月9日的截止期限，并将在未来几天内向170多个国家发送正式信函，单方面告知关税税率。信中会直接写明"该交多少钱"，没有任何 讨价还价的余地。 关税战打到现在，特朗普政府终于拿下一个标杆案例就是越南——美国对越南商品征收20%关税，对"转运"商品征收40%的关税，而越南允许美国商品免关 税进入其市场。 特朗普降服越南，一方面特朗普可以为自己邀功，说明自己能达成这份协议有多么不容易；另一方面，则可以给其他国家树立一个"榜样"，越南的税率在一 定程度上或许就是美国对其征收关税的标准。 当地时间7月4日，特朗普在 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean government announced a 21.62% anti-dumping tax on Chinese stainless steel plates for five years, escalating trade tensions despite previous commitments to ease relations with China [1][3] - In response, China extended anti-dumping duties on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled coils from South Korea, the EU, the UK, and Indonesia, with rates as high as 103.1% [3][4] - The steel industry is crucial for China's manufacturing sector, and the anti-dumping measures reflect a strategic response to protect domestic industries from external low-price dumping [4][14] Group 2 - South Korea's actions are part of a broader strategy that includes investigations into various steel and chemical products, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade protection [3][4] - The anti-dumping measures from China are based on a systematic logic, with a history of investigations dating back to 2019, and are designed to prevent Korean companies from benefiting from the expiration of previous tariffs [4][14] - The trade conflict is influenced by U.S. pressure, as South Korea faces potential automotive tariffs from the U.S. if it does not impose higher tariffs on Chinese steel products [6][7] Group 3 - The South Korean steel and chemical industries are under significant pressure, with capacity utilization rates projected to drop from 82% in 2023 to 68% by 2025, leading to potential closures of over 30 small and medium-sized steel firms [7][11] - China's anti-dumping measures include exemptions for certain companies, such as POSCO, if they maintain export prices above a specified threshold, indicating a more nuanced approach compared to South Korea's blanket measures [4][5] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the delicate balance South Korea must maintain in its foreign relations, particularly in the context of its economic dependencies on both the U.S. and China [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes China's commitment to cautiously using trade remedy measures and highlights the acceptance of price commitments as a means to resolve trade disputes through dialogue and consultation [1] - The statement expresses hope for enhanced dialogue and communication between China and the EU to jointly address economic and trade differences, thereby creating favorable conditions for strengthening and expanding China-EU economic and trade cooperation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-4 ⾮农政府就业⼤幅反弹，降息预期回落 美国6⽉新增⾮农就业数据超预期，但细分结构表现不佳，14.7万的新增 就业中有7.3万来⾃政府部⻔的贡献，私⼈部⻔新增就业仅为7.4万⼈， 环⽐上⽉⼤幅下降6.3万⼈，但数据公布后市场对7⽉降息的预期仍显著回 落，对贵⾦属价格带来压制。短期关注7⽉8⽇关税缓和期到期前后的贸易 政策变动，若贸易摩擦短期不发⽣显著恶化，贵⾦属短期或缺乏上⾏驱 动，仍需震荡蓄⼒。下半年维持对⻩⾦趋势性看多，⽩银谨慎看多的观 点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）美国6月季调后非农就业增14.7万人，预期增11.0万人，前值从增 13.9万人修正为增14.4万人。6月失业率4.1%，预期4.3%，前值4. 2%。 非农就业报告公布后，利率期货交易员放弃了对7月美联储降息 的押注。目前市场对九月份美联储降息的概率约为80%，低于非农就 业报告公布前的98%。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数23.3万人，创下自5月中旬以来的六周新 低，预期24.0万人，前值从23.6万人修正为23.7万人；四周均值24. 15万人，前值从24 ...