2月3日，上海国际能源交易中心发布公告称，自2026年2月5日收盘结算时起，原油、低硫燃料油及20号 胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度统一调整为9%，套期保值持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持 仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。分析人士提醒，交易者应密切关注市场动态，合理控制仓位，做好风险 防范措施。 物产中大（600704）期货研究院院长助理谢雯认为，内盘原油期货价格大跌，主要原因是地缘政治风险 降温。本周，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判，美国总统特朗普称正在与伊朗接触。同时， 1月底美国天然气期货价格暴涨对原油价格有所提振，但美国与欧洲的天气预报显示气温将逐渐升高， 两地天然气期货价格本周也大幅回落。因此，在地缘局势缓和和欧美地区气温回升的背景下，先前押注 原油价格上涨的资金逐渐撤出。 继周一跌停后，昨日上海原油期货主力合约再度大跌。今天凌晨，国际油价收盘全线上涨。消息面上， 美国至1月30日当周API原油库存减少1107.9万桶，之前一周为增加24.7万桶。 对于下跌的持续性，隋晓影认为，随着利空情绪逐步释放，原油价格短期进一步下行的动力会减弱。后 续需要关注两方面因素：一是美伊谈判进展，若不及预 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 据美国媒体2月3日援引英国海上安保公司消息报道称，悬挂美国国旗的"Stena Imperative"号油轮在霍尔 木兹海峡"一度遭到6艘伊朗炮艇逼近"。之后该油轮在一艘美国军舰护送下继续航行。报道称，这些炮 艇通过无线电呼叫油轮，命令船长"关闭引擎并准备被登船"，但油轮加速并保持航向。预计这艘油轮将 于2月5日抵达巴林的锡特拉港。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社报道，有船只"因未经许可进入伊朗领海"而被拦 截。(CCTV国际时讯) 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical conflicts are expected to remain the biggest risk in 2026, with the U.S. focusing on Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing geopolitical tensions in Latin America and the Arctic[11] - The global geopolitical risk index is hovering around 140, indicating a second structural peak since the post-9/11 era, driven by systemic strategic competition among major powers[11] - The U.S. military operation against Venezuela's President Maduro marks a shift in U.S. strategy towards focusing on regional control of strategic resources[13][14] Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow at around 3.0% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.6% and emerging economies at about 4.0%[31] - The U.S. economy is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of around 2%, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements, despite facing structural challenges in the labor market[32] - The EU's economic growth is expected to remain sluggish at about 1.4%, hindered by high core inflation and weak performance in key economies like Germany and France[34] Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in 2026, with potential rate cuts of 2-3 times, influenced by political pressures and economic conditions[20][23] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a "middle strategy" in its monetary policy, balancing between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth, with rates around 2%[24][26] - The Bank of Japan is projected to continue its gradual rate hikes, potentially reaching around 1% by 2026, amid challenges from fiscal policies and inflationary pressures[27][28] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are expected to dominate globally, with developed economies' fiscal deficit rates around 5.0% and emerging economies around 6.0%[38][40] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain high at approximately 7.5%, driven by the "Big and Beautiful Act" aimed at stimulating economic activity[38] - Japan's fiscal deficit is expected to expand to around 2.0%, as the government continues to prioritize fiscal expansion to boost domestic demand[40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand for crude oil is in the off - season. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand situation. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. The cold wave is weakening, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected due to winter storms, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. The global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. Trump has reduced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. The Tianji oilfield in Kazakhstan will gradually resume production, but only half of the production capacity can be restored before February 7. Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, the current cold wave has weakened, and the impact of the next cold wave should be monitored. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 453.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4567 to 31633 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but also raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline has increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year. The weekly production of diesel has increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year. The production of gasoline and diesel has increased month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [4].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月03日16时33分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨0.63%，沪银主力收跌16.71%，铂金主力收涨3.54%，钯金主力收涨涨8.62%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期放缓 。②避险属性方面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。特朗普称俄对乌部分地 区停火一周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引爆鹰派预 期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联 储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④ 商品属性方面，关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧 性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属 ...

（原标题：VLCC航运费用飙升! 霍尔木兹阴云压顶叠加运力吃紧 TD3C日收益狂飙61.6%） 智通财经APP获悉，本周，在全球各国对于伊朗以及整个中东地区紧张局势的担忧与大型原油运输船舶 供应极度紧张之势相互叠加，共同推高海上航运定价之际，从中东向中国运输原油的大型油轮收取了两 个月来最高规模的航运费。 根据波罗的海交易所发布的数据，基准TD3C航线上一艘大型船舶的航运日收益在周一上涨5.1%，至接 近每日级别的报价12.9万美元，为自11月下旬以来的最高水平。此次上涨发生在上周五航运价格暴涨 61.6%之后，当日随着全球投资者们对于可能由美国主导且针对这个伊斯兰共和国的新一轮军事行动的 担忧加剧，市场情绪趋于紧张。 对于外国大型航运船舶来说，更加严峻的是，当天，有关伊朗政府考虑进行海陆空实弹演习的报道令市 场愈发不安;与此同时，有新闻媒体报道称，拥有全球最大规模油轮船队的希腊已警告大型船舶们在通 过霍尔木兹海峡时远离伊朗海岸，这一警告也使得那些处于航线进程的油轮们选择绕道，甚至直接暂时 停止接收需要穿越霍尔木兹海峡的任何运输行程订单。 如以下的图表所示，中东至中国油轮运价在伊朗紧张局势下飙升——VLCC( ...

021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 期货涨幅较大，关注基差机会 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 观点摘要 行业 沥青月报 日期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 原油方面，供需面暂无太大变化，供应依旧过剩。短期市场的交易重 心主要集中在中东局势，目前来看暂无大 ...

黄金携白银反弹，早前的创纪录涨势突然反转后，逢低买盘涌入贵金属市场。 现货黄金一度攀升6%，接近每盎司4，940美元。周一市场一度延续上周五的跌势，跌幅为十余年来最 大。白银上涨超过10%，重新回到87美元/盎司上方。美元回落，风险情绪重回市场。 贵金属价格从历史高位回落，此前市场观察人士接连发出警告，称其涨幅过大过快，尤其是白银。在那 之前，地缘政治动荡、货币贬值以及美联储独立性面临威胁等因素重新引发担忧，支撑了贵金属价格的 上涨。 Pepperstone Group Ltd．市场策略师Ahmad Assiri指出："如今支撑黄金的根基与修正前基本一致"，指的 是地缘政治风险、宽松货币政策预期以及黄金作为投资组合分散配置工具的作用。 Assiri补充道："不过，随着市场持续消化近期波动，短期内波动性可能仍将居高不下。" 责任编辑：李肇孚 黄金携白银反弹，早前的创纪录涨势突然反转后，逢低买盘涌入贵金属市场。 现货黄金一度攀升6%，接近每盎司4，940美元。周一市场一度延续上周五的跌势，跌幅为十余年来最 大。白银上涨超过10%，重新回到87美元/盎司上方。美元回落，风险情绪重回市场。 贵金属价格从历史高位回落， ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 【导读】上金所调整黄金、白银部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板比例 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，黄金白银持续反弹！与此同时，上海黄金交易所也出手了，调整了黄金、白银期货相关 保证金水平和涨跌停板比例。 其中白银期货部分，2026年2月3日（星期二）自收盘清算时起，Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从26%调 整为23%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从25%调整为22%。 黄金期货部分，自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au （T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易 日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120，000元调整至每手150，000元。 此外，市场上，现货黄金日内涨约6%，现货白银日内暴涨约10.00%。 | 伦敦金(现货黄金) CFD | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 XAU | ...