Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a slight pullback with significant declines in technology stocks, indicating a rotation between high and low-performing sectors [1][4]. Market Outlook - Increased volatility is expected in early September, but it will not affect the mid-term market trend. After a continuous rise in August, the market is facing some divergence as it approaches the 3900-point mark, leading to potential profit-taking and a need for re-evaluation of leading sectors [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous peak of 3731 points from 2021, while other major indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have room for catch-up [2]. Hot Sectors - In September, the technology sector may see internal differentiation, with low-performing sectors like robotics, new energy, and military potentially experiencing a rebound. Traditional industries such as finance and consumer goods also have opportunities for recovery [3]. - Key trends to watch include: 1. The ongoing trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with potential catalysts from updates in Tesla's humanoid robot [3]. 2. The push for semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 3. Expectations of order recovery in the military sector by 2025, with signs of bottoming out in mid-term performance [3]. 4. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025 after several years of adjustment [3]. 5. The banking sector is seeing a rebound in mid-term performance after initial impacts from loan rate re-pricing, attracting long-term institutional investors due to appealing dividend yields [3].

2025 年 9 月 3 日 沥青：地缘事件发酵，油品共振偏强 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,551 | 0.31% | 3,541 | -0.28% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,543 | 0.60% | 3,534 | -0.25% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 152,509 | (12,114) | 105,860 | (3,747) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 122,715 | 11,460 | 229,884 | 29,578 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 70300 | -1000 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while domestic gold jewelry prices are also rising significantly, creating a dilemma for potential investors on whether to enter the market now or wait [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The primary driver of the gold price surge is the strong market expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2]. - A weakening US dollar has also contributed to the rise in gold prices, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, thus stimulating demand [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, enhancing its value [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, providing solid buying support for gold prices. Over 90% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a new high since the survey began in 2019 [3]. Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - The domestic gold market is thriving, with prices for gold bars and jewelry rising significantly. Major brands are reporting prices above 1020 RMB per gram, reflecting the strong performance of gold [6]. - The A-share market's gold sector is also performing well, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases due to the rising gold prices [6]. Group 4: Divergent Market Opinions - There is a notable divergence in opinions among Wall Street institutions regarding future gold prices. Optimistic forecasts suggest prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, while others caution against potential overvaluation and risks of a price correction [4][6]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Gold jewelry is not considered an ideal investment due to high processing costs, which diminish its investment value. In contrast, physical gold such as bars and coins is more directly linked to market prices and has lower premiums [10]. - Data from the China Gold Association indicates a significant decline in gold jewelry consumption, while demand for gold bars and coins has increased, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards more investment-oriented gold products [10].

Group 1 - International spot gold prices reached a historic high of $3,508.69 per ounce on September 2, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by approximately 33% [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in precious metal prices to a combination of a weak U.S. economic outlook and anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Major Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are seeking to completely avoid U.S. assets due to concerns over the impact of Trump administration policies [2] - UBS strategists expect gold prices to continue reaching new historical highs in the coming quarters, influenced by declining interest rates and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are surging due to a combination of factors including high expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and a weakening dollar [1][3][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has reached 89.7%, which could lead to significant increases in gold prices historically [3] - Geopolitical risks from ongoing conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, are driving global demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that gold prices typically rise by an average of 19% within six months following the initiation of a rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [3] - The dollar index has fallen below 102, reaching a five-week low, which historically correlates with an increase in gold prices, averaging a 0.85% rise for every 1% depreciation of the dollar [5] - The China Gold Association reports that global central bank net gold purchases are expected to exceed 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, with China's gold reserves increasing for nine months straight [5] Group 3 - Current market conditions resemble a "main rising wave mid-stage," similar to previous bull markets in 2011 and 2020, with potential price targets for gold reaching around $3,800 [7] - The global gold ETF holdings still have a 15% growth potential compared to historical peaks, indicating room for further investment [7] - The domestic gold shop premium has reached 7%, reflecting strong physical demand, while professional institutions are increasing long positions in COMEX gold futures [7] Group 4 - Professional investors are advised to consider futures cross-period arbitrage, as the current price spread between December and February contracts is at an annual high, suggesting mean reversion opportunities [8] - A pyramid accumulation strategy is recommended, where positions are reduced as gold prices rise, and stop-loss measures are implemented if prices fall below the 20-day moving average [9]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on September 2, with polysilicon and the European shipping index rising over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1436.21 points, up 7.06 points or 0.49% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Index closed at 1983.90 points, up 9.75 points or 0.49% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The escalation of the Red Sea situation, following Israeli airstrikes and missile attacks on Israeli oil tankers, led to a near 9% increase in the European shipping index [2] - Despite the initial surge, analysts suggest that the geopolitical-driven rise in shipping may not be sustainable due to oversupply in the shipping market [2] - Oil prices have been supported by expectations of OPEC+ maintaining production levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3] Group 3: Lithium and Ethylene Glycol Market Trends - Lithium carbonate prices fell over 4% due to increased supply and reduced market sentiment, with the price index at 77,386 yuan per ton [4] - Ethylene glycol prices dropped 2.23% as domestic production increased and port inventories rose, with expectations of higher import volumes in the coming months [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by multiple factors including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has boosted gold prices [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported 3% year-on-year growth in global gold demand by Q2 2025, and the People's Bank of China has been consistently adding to its gold holdings [3]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers - The cost of purchasing traditional wedding gold items has significantly increased, with estimates suggesting an additional cost of nearly 10,000 yuan compared to the previous year [6]. - Ordinary investors are facing a dilemma; many are hesitant to buy gold at high prices due to fears of potential price drops, while others worry about missing out on further price increases [6]. - Gold shops are experiencing a mixed impact; while sales of gold jewelry have decreased, the demand for investment gold bars has risen as consumers tend to buy more when prices are increasing [6]. Group 3: Consumer Strategies - Consumers are advised to make purchases based on necessity; for urgent needs like wedding gold, it is recommended to buy simpler designs to manage costs [10]. - For investment purposes, it is suggested to avoid chasing high prices and instead wait for price corrections to buy in increments [10]. - Alternatives such as gold ETFs are recommended to mitigate the challenges of storing physical gold [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high due to strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a continued weakening of the dollar, with spot gold peaking at $3508.70 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 0.7% [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are primarily driven by recent weak U.S. economic data, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September policy meeting according to CME FedWatch [2] - Key economic indicators include a significant drop in July non-farm payrolls to 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, alongside a decline in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Manufacturing jobs have seen negative growth for three consecutive months, with a reduction of 11,000 jobs in July [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have further supported precious metals, with recent missile attacks by Houthi forces on Israeli oil tankers escalating market risk aversion [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia continue to influence market sentiment [2] Group 3: Physical Demand - Positive trends in physical demand for gold are noted, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.96 million ounces, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces for the ninth consecutive month [3] - The Saudi central bank's recent purchase of $4 million in silver ETFs indicates a growing trend in silver investment demand [3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have risen to 977.68 tons, up from 967.94 tons, reflecting increased investor interest [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Multiple futures companies maintain an optimistic outlook for precious metals, with Everbright Futures highlighting strong industrial demand for silver as a key driver for price increases [4] - Hongyuan Futures suggests that the dovish signals from Fed Chairman Powell regarding employment trends, combined with ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, may lead to a bullish trend for precious metals [4] - Shanghai Zhongti Futures emphasizes the potential for increased volatility in gold prices, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases [4] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Investors are advised to look for buying opportunities on price dips, as the overall trend for gold and silver remains strong amid expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could significantly influence the Fed's decision on interest rates and, consequently, precious metal prices [5]

本周初，金价维持强劲的买盘基调，尽管目前略微回落至3,470美元/盎司区间。美联储下半年降息预期强劲支撑了贵金属的持续上涨，而美元的弱势也助长 了金价上涨。 XAU/USD技术面概述： 在地缘政治方面，俄罗斯上周对乌克兰城市进行了致命袭击，发射了598架无人机和诱饵弹以及31枚导弹。乌克兰总统泽连斯基誓言将下令对俄罗斯境内进 行报复性打击。乌克兰周日表示，在过去24小时内已击落112架乌克兰无人机。 KVB官网从技术角度来看，周五突破3,440美元的供应区间（即三个多月以来交易区间的上边界），被视为XAU/USD多头的新触发点。此外，日线图上的振 荡指标持续走高，支持金价进一步上涨。然而，日线相对强弱指数(RSI)已接近突破超买区域，这表明金价可能在3,500美元心理关口附近稍作喘息，该关口 是4月份创下的历史高点。 另一方面，任何修正性回调现在都可能在3,440美元阻力位附近找到不错的支撑。任何进一步的下跌都可能被视为买入机会，并且更有可能在3,400美元附近 保持有限。后者应该会成为黄金强劲的短期基础，如果果断跌破，可能会引发一些技术性抛售，并为进一步下跌铺平道路。黄金/美元可能进一步下跌至 3,372美 ...

Group 1 - International spot gold prices reached a historic high of $3,508.69 per ounce on September 2, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Gold prices have increased approximately 33% year-to-date, reflecting a strong demand for the precious metal amid economic uncertainties [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to the weak outlook for the U.S. economy and anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside a crisis of confidence in dollar assets due to President Trump's criticism of the Fed's independence [1] Group 2 - Major Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are reportedly seeking to completely avoid U.S. assets due to concerns over the impact of the Trump administration's policies, including potential tariffs and trade restrictions [2] - UBS strategists predict that gold will continue to reach new historical highs in the coming quarters, supported by declining interest rates, weakening economic data, and increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [2]