Group 1 - The unemployment rate for January to March 2025, seasonally adjusted, remains at 3.2%, unchanged from December 2024 to February 2025 [1][2] - The underemployment rate also remains stable at 1.1% during the same period [1][2] - Total employment decreased from 3,709,500 in December 2024 to 3,692,700 in January to March 2025, a reduction of approximately 16,800 [1][2] Group 2 - The total labor force declined from 3,821,300 to 3,815,500, a decrease of about 5,800 [1][2] - The number of unemployed individuals increased from 111,700 to 122,800, an increase of approximately 11,100 [1][2] - The number of underemployed individuals rose from 40,700 to 42,700, an increase of about 2,000 [1][2] Group 3 - Unemployment rates varied across industries, with notable increases in the information and communications sector, social work activities, professional and business services (excluding cleaning services), and construction [1][2] - Conversely, the transportation and insurance sectors experienced declines in unemployment rates [2] - The government anticipates that external uncertainties due to trade tensions may affect hiring intentions in some industries, while domestic economic growth supported by government measures is expected to bolster labor demand [2]

中国香港3月三个月失业率 3.2%，预期3.2%，前值3.20%。 ...

中国台湾3月失业率 3.36%，预期3.4%，前值3.35%。 ...

来源 | 智堡Mikko 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文翻译自鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部 的演讲与问答 摘要 一、经济现状与货币政策 1 经济基本面： 2 政策挑战： 二、贸易政策与市场影响 1 关税效应： 2 金融市场反应： 三、劳动力市场与长期风险 1 当前状态： 2 潜在威胁： • 美国经济保持稳固，劳动力市场接近充分就业，失业率稳定在4%左右。 • 通胀已从2022年峰值显著回落，但仍略高于2%的目标（核心PCE为2.6%）。 • 新政府政策（贸易、移民、财政、监管）带来高度不确定性，可能加剧通胀并抑制增长。 • 关税可能导致价格水平一次性上涨，若传导至消费者预期，或引发持续性通胀风险。 • 美联储需平衡双重使命（就业与通胀），警惕政策目标冲突（如高失业率与高通胀并存）。 • 已宣布的关税幅度超预期，直接影响包括： • 通胀抬升：进口成本增加可能转嫁给消费者。 • 供应链扰动：若导致关键商品短缺（如半导体），可能延长通胀压力。 • 企业普遍反映"政策不确定性"抑制投资决策，可能拖累长期经济增长。 • 股市波动加剧（VIX指数攀升），债券市场出现避险与收益率上升的背离现象。 • 美联储强调市 ...

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market [1] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of -0.26% in March, following a -0.69% return in the previous month, with a year-to-date return of -0.66% [3][5] - The 30-day volatility of the index has been on the rise during this period [3] Index Performance - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index recorded a return of -0.27% in March, with a year-to-date return of -0.74% [3][5] - The performance of various maturity indices shows mixed results, with the 1-3 Year Index at -0.24% year-to-date and the 10+ Year Index at -1.40% [5] - The China USD Credit (Kungfu) Index has shown a positive year-to-date return of 2.84%, indicating strong performance in the offshore market [5] Market Trends - Despite inflation effects from tariffs, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates five times by the end of the year, indicating a shift in focus towards market stability and unemployment rates [12] - Onshore high liquidity indices and dim sum bond indices have significantly lower yields compared to offshore indices, suggesting cost-saving opportunities for companies refinancing their dollar debts [12] - In February, the Chinese bond market saw an inflow of 69.8 billion RMB across all bond types, reflecting positive investor sentiment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's indications have alleviated panic in the U.S. stock market, leading to significant gains in major indices and tech stocks [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On April 11, U.S. stock indices opened lower but closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.56%, the S&P 500 by 1.81%, and the Nasdaq by 2.06% [4]. - Major tech stocks saw substantial gains, with Broadcom up 5.59%, Apple up 4.06%, and Nvidia up 3.12% [6]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.73%, despite a weekly decline of 5.3% [6]. Volatility and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) reached its highest level since August of the previous year, exceeding 60 during a turbulent week [7]. - The S&P 500 recorded a weekly increase of 5.7%, marking its best weekly performance since November 2023, with the Nasdaq gaining 7.29% [8]. Federal Reserve's Position - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the Fed is prepared to use its policy tools to stabilize the market if necessary, emphasizing that the current market is functioning well [11][13]. - Collins noted that emergency rate cuts are not the primary tool for addressing market issues, and the Fed has other mechanisms in place to support market operations [16]. Economic Warnings - New York Fed President John Williams warned that tariffs introduced by President Trump could lead to inflation rising to 4% and a potential increase in unemployment [19][21]. - Williams highlighted a significant decline in consumer and business confidence, with inflation expectations rising to 6.7%, the highest since 1981 [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell's leadership, highlighting the need for the Fed to resist the temptation to lower interest rates in response to market volatility, despite external pressures and past mistakes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The Federal Reserve is described as the "unluckiest" in history, facing significant external shocks since the COVID-19 pandemic, including trade policy impacts and internal conflicts [3]. - The Fed's credibility has been undermined by past misjudgments, particularly regarding inflation, and its political independence is now at risk [3][5]. - Major Wall Street banks have adjusted their economic forecasts, raising inflation expectations and predicting a higher unemployment rate, indicating the Fed's policy dilemma in balancing employment and price stability [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed's current policy-making is marked by uncertainty, with conflicting signals regarding interest rate adjustments in response to rising unemployment and inflation [5][6]. - Market participants expect the Fed to lower interest rates multiple times this year, reflecting a historical pattern of the Fed responding to market volatility with easing measures [5][6]. - The persistent high inflation poses a significant challenge for the Fed, complicating its ability to address potential unemployment increases effectively [6]. Group 3: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve - The article suggests that the Fed must adopt a more humble approach to avoid repeating past mistakes in analysis, forecasting, and policy design [6]. - It is recommended that the Fed prioritize controlling inflation over addressing unemployment when both factors are moving in an unfavorable direction [6].

智通财经4月9日电，韩国3月失业率为2.9%，预期2.8%，前值2.70%。 ...

韩国3月失业率 2.9%，预期2.8%，前值2.70%。 ...

Employment Data - In March, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected 135,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March, up from 4.1% in the previous month[1] - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, while the government sector contributed 19,000 jobs[3] Job Market Trends - By March 2025, the average monthly recruitment plan is expected to decrease to 10,000, down from 24,000 in February and 127,000 in 2021[2] - The number of job vacancies in the non-government sector fell to 6.667 million, down from over 10 million in 2022[2] - All ethnic groups saw an increase in employment rates in March[3][47] Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - The average weekly wage growth for non-farm employment was revised down to 3.2% in March, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from February[4] - The overall wage growth remains above the inflation rate, indicating real income growth despite a slowdown in wage increase momentum[4] - The service production index rose by 4.5% in March, with education and health sectors growing by 1.9%[4]