Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold, silver, and platinum, experienced significant price increases at the end of 2025, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, spot gold approached historical highs, opening at $4550.00 per ounce before dropping to around $4469 [1]. - Gold prices rose by 1.2% last Friday, reaching $4531.87 per ounce, with February futures closing at $4552.70, reflecting strong market momentum [3]. - Silver surpassed $80, platinum reached record highs, and palladium broke the $2000 mark, indicating a robust performance across precious metals [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with potential rate cuts in mid-2026, has fueled market optimism [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 70 tons of gold monthly in 2026, significantly above historical averages, providing strong support for gold prices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a possibility of exceeding $5000 in the first half of the year [4]. - The first quarter of 2026 may see a price pullback to $4200, followed by a gradual recovery to $4630 before reaching the projected highs [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy meetings and developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, as these will directly impact gold price trends [4].

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 与此同时，中东地缘紧张再度升温。沙特领导的联军周末向也门南部主要分裂势力发出停止军事行动的警告。有分 析称，也门局势恶化令红海航道和中东石油运输面临新威胁，供应中断风险显著上升。 此外，瑞银分析师强调，中国海运原油进口量保持强劲，为油市提供需求端支撑，进一步巩固价格底部。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨跌幅 √ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | (0) | 5.04% | 21.680 | 1.03万亿 | 22.28% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | | 3.39% | 8.540 | 1.56万亿 | 52.60% | | 00681 | 中民控股 | | 3.03% | 0.034 | 3.04亿 | 30.77% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股份 | | 2.96% | 1.390 | 146.54亿 | 17.98% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股份 | | 2.40% | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the need for market participants to pay attention to potential geopolitical "black swan" events that could significantly impact global asset prices by 2026 [1][7]. Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a full-scale confrontation between Russia and Europe is increasing, driven by Russia's battlefield advantages and heightened concerns among Eastern European countries [9]. - The fragile peace in the Middle East and the Caucasus region poses a risk of renewed conflict, particularly with Israel potentially seeking decisive action to ensure its security amid a strategic U.S. withdrawal [14]. - The strategic balance in the South Asian subcontinent is under threat, as the U.S. shifts its focus away from the Indo-Pacific, potentially diminishing India's strategic value and increasing the likelihood of conflict with Pakistan [17]. - Domestic political risks in the U.S. are rising, particularly concerning Trump, as internal support fractures and external pressures mount, which could lead to increased political instability [22]. - Opportunistic strategic risks in the Asia-Pacific region may arise as the U.S. reduces its strategic presence, encouraging countries like Japan and the Philippines to take more adventurous actions [24]. - The rise of "new Monroe Doctrine" in South America could disrupt global trade and supply chains, as the U.S. seeks to assert its dominance in the region, increasing geopolitical risks [25]. Investment Recommendations - Despite the identified geopolitical risks, China's economic resilience and policy stability are viewed as crucial stabilizing factors for the global market [28]. - Investors are advised to establish a geopolitical risk monitoring framework, increase allocations to safe-haven assets like gold and the renminbi, and focus on regions that may benefit from uncertainty, particularly those closely linked to the Chinese economy [29].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：俄罗斯周一指控乌克兰试图袭击总统普京位于俄罗斯北部的官邸，但未提供任何证据。基 辅方面驳斥这一说法毫无根据，称其意在破坏和平谈判；一名业内人士表示，哈萨克斯坦12月石油产 量下降约6%，主要由于由雪佛龙公司主导的巨型Tengiz油田产量下降，此前乌克兰一次无人机袭击损 坏了俄罗斯的黑海出口终端；美国总统特朗普表示，他担忧伊朗正在试图重建其核能力并加强弹道导 弹计划，他威胁将再次打击伊朗，以阻止德黑兰储存武器；中性 2.基差：12月29日，阿曼原油现货价为61.72美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as investors opted for profit-taking after a week of bullish activity and a surge in silver prices [3] - Despite the recent decline, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices fell from a peak to a low of 4305, indicating a substantial decline, but the market has not broken key support levels, suggesting a potential for recovery [4] - If gold stabilizes above 4400, it may indicate a shift back to a strong bullish trend, with targets set at 4500 [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering long positions in gold, particularly if prices approach 4330, with initial targets at 4400 and further upside potential at 4500 [4] - For domestic gold contracts, a cautious approach is recommended, with opportunities to enter long positions as the market adjusts after recent declines [4]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 62 元至 5470 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5360 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5206 元/吨（环比+39）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 652 手至 1.72 万手，空头持仓增加 1863 至 2.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking after a bullish trend, but the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchasing trends [1][5][6]. Price Movements - On December 29, gold opened at $4537.12 per ounce, peaked at $4548.58, and then fell to a low of $4303.73, closing at $4331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [3][5]. - The price volatility for the day was $244.85, indicating significant market fluctuations [3]. Market Influences - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the FHFA House Price Index and Chicago PMI, are expected to exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes are anticipated to have limited positive impact on gold prices, with the market likely to remain in a consolidation phase [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish perspective on gold remains unchanged due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and inflation hedging demands [5][6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key driver for gold price increases, with a target of $5000 per ounce by 2026 being considered achievable [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a potential for gold to test support levels around $4000-$3900, with a bullish outlook if it breaks above previous resistance levels [8][10]. - Daily charts show that gold is currently supported by key moving averages, suggesting opportunities for bullish positions [12]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4315 or $4260 and resistance at $4380 or $4440 for gold, with similar levels provided for silver [13].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices reached a record high above $80 per ounce on Monday but subsequently retreated, while gold prices also fell from near historical highs due to profit-taking by investors and a perceived reduction in geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors engaged in profit-taking after gold prices hit record highs, leading to a decline in both gold and silver prices [1] - Optimism regarding progress in U.S. government-led peace negotiations in Ukraine contributed to a moderate headwind for safe-haven buying [1] Group 2: Upcoming Events - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday, which may provide insights into future interest rate outlooks [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - UBS analysts noted that gold prices are at a high premium, and a sudden hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve or significant outflows from large ETFs could pose downward risks to the market [1]

Group 1 - The international gold market is experiencing a strong performance as it approaches the end of 2025, driven by multiple favorable factors including the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and increasing geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Gold is becoming a focal point for investors due to its traditional role as a safe-haven asset, with central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, further supporting the upward trend in gold prices [3][4] - Despite the attractiveness of gold as a long-term value preservation tool, its prices are subject to cyclical volatility influenced by various factors, necessitating cautious investment decisions [4][8] Group 2 - Investors are advised to adopt a rational investment strategy, diversifying their portfolios and treating gold as a stabilizing asset rather than a singular investment [6][8] - Recommendations for investors include gradual accumulation of gold to mitigate price volatility, closely monitoring policy developments from the Federal Reserve, and selecting appropriate investment vehicles such as physical gold for long-term holding or gold ETFs for short-term trading [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant volatility in silver prices, with a notable increase of over 5% followed by a sharp decline, attributed to various market factors [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures contracts, with silver margins rising by 13.6% [1] - President Trump's positive communication with President Putin is noted as a contributing factor to market fluctuations [1] - JPMorgan's warning about potential technical sell-offs due to the over-weighting of gold and silver in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is also a key concern, predicting a forced sell-off of 9% and 3% of total holdings for silver and gold respectively during the 2026 rebalancing [1] Group 2 - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, driven by several factors [2] - Trump's call for the new Federal Reserve Chairman to support significant interest rate cuts is expected to influence future monetary policy [2] - Fiscal easing measures from governments in Germany, the US, Japan, and the UK are anticipated to lead to increased global debt and fiscal deficit expectations [2] - The one-month borrowing rate for silver in London has exceeded 6.2%, indicating tight supply conditions [2] - Continued purchases of gold by central banks worldwide and ongoing geopolitical risks are also supporting the bullish sentiment for precious metals [2] - Future price resistance levels for silver are identified at $85-$95 per ounce in London and 21,600-24,000 yuan per kilogram in Shanghai [2]