Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is more certain that the Fed will restart the interest - rate cut process at the September 17 meeting. The dollar index has fallen to 97.6, and London gold has risen to $3476 per ounce, with silver prices rising by more than 4%. The Fed's interest - rate cut may boost the gold price to break through the resistance and start a new upward trend, which may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious - metal trading [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut, international trade currency system restructuring, and geopolitical risks may jointly push the gold price to break through the $3500 mark. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price, and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Due to more Fed officials supporting the second - stage interest - rate cut and the US July PCE inflation stabilizing and rising in line with market expectations, the dollar index fell and gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest - rate cut may start a new upward trend for gold, and this round of rally may last until the spring - summer of 2026. This week, attention should be paid to global August PMI data, US August employment data, and China's September 3 military parade [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to now, London gold has oscillated widely. Although international trade situation improvement and financial market recovery have weakened gold's safe - haven demand, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and international trade currency system restructuring support the gold price. The gold price may break through $3500 per ounce, and silver will also rise following gold [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and China jointly oppose discriminatory sanctions in world trade, and will discuss new prospects and measures for mutually beneficial cooperation during Putin's visit to China [17]. - US consumer spending in July had the largest increase in four months, and service - sector inflation rose. Economists believe that the Fed may still cut interest rates in September [17]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports interest - rate cuts due to risks in the labor market [17]. - The court hearing on Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook ended without an immediate ruling, and Cook will remain in office for now [17]. - The US Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's tariffs are illegal, but allowed tariffs to continue until October 14, giving the Trump administration a chance to appeal to the US Supreme Court [18].

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - **Supply**: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - **Supply**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - **Supply**: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - **Supply**: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - **Demand**: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - **Supply**: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - **Demand**: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been on the rise, with London gold closing at $3,478.93 per ounce, up nearly 1%, and COMEX gold reaching a historic high of $3,557.10, driven by expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold has accumulated a 30% increase by the end of August, outperforming other asset classes [1]. - On September 1, gold stock ETFs (517400) surged by 8.41%, leading various sectors [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1]. - A weak U.S. dollar has positively impacted gold prices, as it enhances gold's appeal as an investment [1]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, fueled by Trump's interventions, have led to increased interest in gold as a reserve asset [1]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been increasing their gold reserves for diversification and de-dollarization, with over 5.3 million ounces purchased by Q2 2025, providing crucial support for gold prices [1]. Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks are prompting investors to consider gold as part of their investment portfolios [2]. - The largest gold ETF (SPDR) continued to see net inflows in August, indicating strong demand for physical gold in regions like China and India [2]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan expect gold prices to rise to $4,000 by mid-2026 [2]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the value of gold in their portfolios, with options including gold ETFs (518800) or more flexible gold stock ETFs (517400) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In August, the overall price of oil dropped significantly, with supply - side pressure outweighing the market's expectation of long - term macro - economic recovery. In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum, with limited upside potential, while in the medium - to - long term, they remain under pressure [81]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Operation Strategy - Since August, the first - half decline has suppressed oil prices, resulting in a monthly decline. This month, oil prices are likely to remain under supply - side pressure and are unlikely to rebound significantly. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 450 - 520 yuan/barrel and adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. A bearish approach is advisable due to limited positive factors [13]. 2. Market Review - In August, supply - side pressure prevented a significant oil price rebound, and prices fluctuated at relatively low levels. Although some losses were recovered in the second half of the month, the recovery was limited despite high expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical instability [20]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Inflation and Core Prices**: Inflation persists, core prices are rising, and the quality of non - farm employment is deteriorating, which may not improve easily [24][27][30]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, the Israel - Hamas conflict in the Middle East may continue, and the negotiation between Iran and European countries has stalled, which may lead to continued problems in Iran's oil exports and support oil prices [34]. 3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: In July, OPEC+ increased production. Saudi Arabia and Russia both raised output, and production may continue to rise in August. Attention should be paid to compensatory production cuts in Iran and Iraq, and Venezuela's exports may be restricted. The US oil production has slightly recovered [37][41][49]. 3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Season**: The peak consumption season is ending. Gasoline production may gradually decrease, while diesel production is picking up. Manufacturing in China and the US remains sluggish, while that in Europe shows a slight recovery. The production of refined oil is shifting from gasoline to diesel [52][55][58]. 3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 22 and 23, and the decline was in line with market expectations. The inventory may continue to fall in the short term [70]. - **Refined Oil**: The US gasoline inventory decreased, and the refined oil inventory had a large decline in the week ending August 23. Seasonal consumption led to inventory reduction, which may ease in mid - September [73]. 3.5 Spread Factors - In August, the cracking spread of North American gasoline and diesel was relatively stable. Diesel cracking slightly declined in the second half of the month, and gasoline was relatively strong. In the domestic market, as the travel season ends, refineries may shift to diesel production, which may support the cracking performance of fuel oil [77]. 4. Viewpoint Summary - In August, the center of oil prices moved down significantly. In the short term, the downward space of oil prices is limited due to the North American consumption season, but in the medium - to - long term, supply - side pressure will continue. Geopolitical factors will increase price volatility [81].

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures reached a historical high, exceeding $3557.1 per ounce, with a slight retreat to $3542.4 per ounce, marking a 0.75% increase [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also hit recent highs, with notable increases from brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Miao, and Chow Sang Sang, reflecting a rise of 1.78% to 1.79% from the previous week [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, increased geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and central banks accumulating gold reserves [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict a high probability of consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings, which is expected to positively impact precious metal prices, particularly silver [2] - On September 1, COMEX silver prices reached a peak of $41.64 per ounce, marking a significant increase of 41.7% year-to-date, outperforming gold [2] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 85.42, indicating a trend of silver prices following gold price fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a low risk of significant pullbacks in gold prices, supported by ongoing favorable factors such as rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [3] - Long-term projections indicate that the evolving global political and economic landscape may continue to support gold prices, with some institutions forecasting potential challenges to $3700 or even $4000 per ounce within the next 18 months [3] - The gold-silver ratio is stabilizing near a three-year average, with silver prices expected to follow gold's movements [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are driven up by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks [3]. - Copper prices are in a state of multi - factor intersection and remain volatile. The upside is limited by weak demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors, while the support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short term, but there is pressure above. Breaking through the 21,000 pressure level requires the fulfillment of peak - season expectations, a significant improvement in demand, and inventory reduction [35]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand awaiting the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" [63]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals [76]. - Tin prices have an upward driving force due to the tight supply, despite the demand pressure [93]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage, with attention paid to the environmental protection situation on the supply side and the continuation of downstream restocking [111]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been strengthened to 89%, which suppresses the US dollar and boosts the financial attribute of gold. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe increase the demand for hedging, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks provides long - term support, jointly driving up the gold price [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, mainly shows relevant price and inventory data [4][12]. Copper - **Price**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures shows an increase, with the daily increase of the main contract being 0.47%. The price of LME copper 3M also increases by 0.68%. The support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid, but the upside is limited by weak demand [15][16]. - **Supply - demand**: The spot premium increases with the price increase, and the refined - scrap price difference is close to a reasonable level. The demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors is weak, and the supply may shrink after September due to Fed rate cuts and maintenance [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and domestic policies are beneficial to the price. The start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand shows signs of recovery in the peak season, but the production and transportation control during the September parade may affect inventory reduction. The possible reduction in recycled aluminum supply supports the consumption of primary aluminum [35]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in a state of oversupply in the second half of the year, which suppresses the price. The environmental protection limit order for some alumina plants in Henan has only a short - term impact on production [36]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of waste - using enterprises, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [37]. Zinc - **Supply**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc - ore price has an advantage, and the overseas zinc - ore supply is relatively loose. The increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large, and the overseas refined - zinc increment is small [63]. - **Demand**: The demand is not significantly affected by the parade and remains stable. It is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October", and there is a strong positive correlation with black varieties [63]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious [63]. Nickel - **Market Trend**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets oscillated last week, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals. The support of nickel ore continues, and the upward space of nickel iron needs attention. The new - energy sector was relatively strong last week [76]. Tin - **Supply - demand**: Tin prices are rising due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 30. In August 2025, the output of refined tin decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to enterprise maintenance and the decrease in tin - concentrate imports in July [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the futures market declined last week, and the spot - market trading volume decreased. The production - scheduling data of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises increased by 5% month - on - month this month, providing support for the peak - season expectation. The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123].

黄金延续上涨势头，周一回升至历史高点附近。 美联储降息预期令美元持续走低，利好这种无收益商品。 地缘政治紧张局势升级也为避险货币黄金/美元（XAU/USD）提供支撑。 周一欧洲时段上半段，黄金（XAU/USD）维持强劲买盘基调，并在一系列支撑因素的共同作用下，仍远接近历史高点。尽管通胀迹象持续存在，但交易员 似乎确信美联储（Fed）本月将降息。此外，对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧，进一步加剧了围绕美元（USD）的看跌情绪，利好这种无收益黄金。 此外，俄罗斯袭击乌克兰以及以色列与哈马斯冲突升级带来的新地缘政治风险，也为避险货币黄金提供支撑。然而，短期图表上略微超买的状况可能会抑制 黄金/美元多头进行新的押注，并在本周重要的美国宏观数据公布前限制其进一步上涨的空间。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，任何回调都可能被视为买入机 会，且涨幅仍然有限。 每日摘要市场动态：黄金受益于美联储降息预期、美元走弱和地缘政治风险 美国经济分析局周五公布，7月份个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数年率稳定在2.6%。此外，核心PCE价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）在报告月份 小幅上涨至2.9%，高于6月份的2.8%，与分析师的预期相符。 ...

Core Insights - The international gold market has reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures exceeding $3550 per ounce, reflecting a new balance of investor confidence and concerns about the future economy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin to lower interest rates in the fall, which would decrease the yield on dollar-denominated assets and drive funds into gold [2] Group 2: Dollar Weakness and Trade Policy Changes - A recent court ruling deemed certain tariff measures illegal, putting pressure on the dollar index. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for global buyers, increasing demand [3] Group 3: Geopolitical and Global Uncertainty - Political maneuvering ahead of the U.S. elections, global trade tensions, energy security issues, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have highlighted gold's value as a safe haven [4] Group 4: Central Bank and Institutional Buying - Central banks from China, India, and the Middle East are continuously increasing their gold reserves, while global gold ETFs are experiencing net inflows, providing a solid foundation for gold price increases [5] Group 5: New Technical Landscape - The $3000 level has been a strong support, while $3500 has acted as a strong resistance. If gold stabilizes above $3550, it may enter a new upward channel, with predictions of reaching the $3600–$3800 range in the short term [6] Group 6: Shift in Investor Sentiment - The new high in gold prices signifies a shift in investment logic, with more institutional investors viewing gold as a core asset rather than a peripheral one, leading to structural changes in demand [7] Group 7: Long-term Trends and Predictions - Several international investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Citi predicting a range of $3500–$3600 in the next three months, and more aggressive views suggesting prices could reach $4000–$6000 in the coming years [8]

Core Insights - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has significant implications for urban areas in China, highlighting vulnerabilities in densely populated cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [1][4][6] - The conflict has led to increased commodity prices and inflationary pressures on China's economy, affecting foreign trade and supply chains [6][14] - The rural areas in China, while perceived as safe havens during crises, face challenges in accommodating large influxes of urban residents due to limited resources and infrastructure [8][9] Economic Impact - The war has caused substantial economic losses in Ukraine, with millions displaced and significant damage to infrastructure [3] - China's reliance on external resources for food and energy makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, as evidenced by the global energy price surge following the conflict [4][6] - Reports indicate that the conflict has exacerbated input inflation in China, affecting the overall economic stability [6][14] Urban Vulnerabilities - High-density urban areas are at risk of severe disruptions in the event of attacks, leading to potential power outages and food shortages [4][6] - The experience of Ukrainian cities under siege serves as a warning for Chinese urban centers, which could face similar challenges if geopolitical tensions escalate [4][6] Rural Preparedness - The influx of urban residents to rural areas during crises could lead to resource shortages and social tensions, as rural infrastructure may not be equipped to handle large populations [8][9] - Recent government initiatives aimed at rural revitalization and modernization are crucial for enhancing the resilience of rural areas to support urban populations in times of crisis [11][13] Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has implemented policies to improve agricultural productivity and rural infrastructure, aiming for a more balanced urban-rural development [11][13] - Long-term strategies focus on ensuring food security and energy stability, which are essential for mitigating the impacts of potential urban crises [14]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月01日 (原油) 上周国际油价震荡，布伦特11合约涨0.3%。俄乌、伊核谈判仍处僵局，但在近期地缘风险溢价小 幅向上修复后暂无迹象表明供应受到明显阻碍。旺季过后石油市场供应过剩压力将进一步凸显,关 注9月7日0PEC+议产会议对剩余165万桶/天自愿减产恢复的讨论，若无进一步地缘犹动原油市场下 行压力增加。 【贵金属】 周五美国公布核心PCE温和上涨符合预期，进一步稳定了9月美联储降息预期，叠加特朗普解雇库克 事件成肠美联储独立性,责金属偏强运行。国际金价通近历史高点,一旦突破则上涨可能具备一定 持续性,本周关键的美国非农数据或将决定多空走向。此外美联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普关税措 施非法，关注最高法院裁决。 (铜) 上周五伦铜走出9900美元8月最高收盘价，主要受金银涨势提振，市场等待9月中旬联储兑现降息， 且部分机构关注美国失业数据的调整。国内铜市关注废铜因整顿补贴、落实反向开票成本上调后, 市场报价的调整。铜市基本面编中性,但联储降息引起的资金共振可能带动铜价短线突破上冲，少 量多单短线参与。 (铝) 周五夜盘沪铝窄幅波 ...