Core Viewpoint - China has strategically increased its nickel reserves in response to geopolitical tensions and market conditions, particularly in light of the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump, which has led to a significant drop in nickel prices due to increased production from Indonesia [1][3]. Group 1: Nickel Procurement Strategy - Since December of the previous year, China has purchased up to 100,000 tons of nickel, with 77,000 tons acquired in the first five months of this year, indicating a potential doubling of reserves by 2025 [1][3]. - The price of nickel has fallen by 40% due to increased production from Indonesia, allowing China to capitalize on this opportunity to stockpile nickel at historically low prices [3]. Group 2: Importance of Nickel - Nickel is a critical alloying element in stainless steel, and China, being the largest stainless steel producer globally, requires substantial nickel reserves [5]. - The growing application of nickel in the electric vehicle industry, particularly in battery production, underscores the necessity for China to secure its nickel supply amid the booming demand for electric vehicles [7]. - Nickel-based alloys are also essential for national defense materials, including components for aircraft engines and rockets, further emphasizing the strategic importance of nickel reserves [7]. Group 3: Timing and Geopolitical Considerations - The timing of China's nickel procurement aligns with the geopolitical landscape, as actions were taken shortly after Trump's election, anticipating potential trade conflicts and supply chain disruptions [9]. - The increasing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the likelihood of U.S. actions against China in critical mineral sectors necessitate proactive measures to ensure resource security [9].

Group 1: Trade Relations - Brazil's trade surplus with the U.S. is approximately $7 billion for 2024, with a total trade surplus of about $410 billion over the past 15 years [1][3] - The U.S. has maintained a significant trade surplus with Brazil, which has been a long-standing goal of former President Trump [1][3] - Brazil's exports to the U.S. were around $40 billion, while imports were about $47 billion, resulting in a $7 billion surplus for the U.S. [3] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1, which could significantly impact U.S. industries, particularly the restaurant sector [1][3] - Brazil exports nearly 8 million bags of coffee to the U.S. annually, and over half of the orange juice sold in the U.S. comes from Brazil, indicating potential price increases for these products due to tariffs [4] Group 3: Political Context - The tariff threats come amid tensions between Trump and Brazilian President Lula, with Trump accusing Brazil of unfair trade practices [3][5] - Lula emphasized Brazil's ability to protect its domestic industries and suggested that Brazil could seek new markets in response to U.S. tariffs [3][5] - Trump's actions are seen as an attempt to influence Brazil's internal politics, particularly regarding investigations into former President Bolsonaro [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 11 million to 16 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 67.55 million to 72.55 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year decline of 80.85% to 86.83% [1][2] - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, to be between 12 million to 17 million yuan, also reflecting a significant decrease compared to the previous year's figures [1][2] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 83.55 million yuan, with a total profit of 96.25 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 65.59 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The primary reasons for the expected decline in performance include the impact of the trade war, increased volatility in commodity cotton prices, significant effects on downstream customer exports, and slow recovery in the domestic market, leading to lower-than-expected sales growth and inability to dilute fixed costs [2]

2025.07. 11 本文字数：2142，阅读时长大约3分钟 封图丨 巴西总统卢拉（资料图） 据央视新闻，7月9日，美国总统特朗普发布致巴西总统卢拉的信函，威胁将对进口自巴西的产品征 收50%的关税。 对此，卢拉表示，巴西将与美国进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施。截至当地时间10日， 巴西已从外交、经济、政治、国际舆论等多个方面等入手准备，全面应对美国发起的关税战。 当地时间7月10日，在美国威胁对巴加征关税后，巴西总统卢拉在接受采访时表示， 巴西将与美国 进行关税谈判，若无效将采取对等反制措施 。 卢拉表示，巴西将优先尝试进行关税谈判，并就美方这一单边加征关税措施在世界贸易组织提起诉 讼。他强调，如果谈判无效，会根据巴西《经济互惠法》规定， 采取对等反制措施，向美国出口巴 西产品征收50%关税 。 外交层面：退回特朗普信函 巴西外交部称，在初步评估中，特朗普信中提及"不可持续的美国（对巴西）贸易逆差"与事实严重不 符。因为在美国和巴西的贸易关系中，美国是顺差方，巴西是逆差方。 9日晚，巴西外交部召见美国驻巴西大使馆临时代办，要求美方核实信件的真实性。随后， 巴西外交 部以该信件"具有冒犯性且包含事实 ...

关税，又有新消息！ 北京时间7月11日早间消息，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起，对自加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税。 上述消息公布后，美股股指期货大幅跳水，纳指期货盘中一度跌0.8%，标普500指数期货、道指期货一度跌超 0.6%。加元兑美元汇率盘中也直线跳水，跌幅一度达到0.56%。 特朗普最新宣布：35%关税！ 当地时间7月10日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上宣布，美国将对加拿大商品加征35%关税，此项关税将 从2025年8月1日生效。 6月30日，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，美国白宫将立即重启与加拿大的贸易谈判。 多国强硬回应美国加征关税 特朗普7日向日本、韩国等14个国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。 他同时预告本周还会 有更多此类信函发出。9日上午，特朗普再致信6个国家的领导人，通知他们将对这些国家输美商品征收新关 税。同一天，特朗普还在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布了致巴西有关加征关税的信函，表示美国将自2025年 8月1日起对所有巴西产品征收50%的关税。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月9日，针对美国将对日本征收25%关税问题，日本首相石破茂表示，日本国内将 团结一致守护 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Relations - U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, indicated potential meetings with Chinese trade representatives in early August, highlighting ongoing communication between the U.S. and China regarding economic concerns [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a special action to combat the smuggling and export of strategic minerals, initiated in May [4] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, with China's Foreign Ministry opposing the broad application of national security concepts and emphasizing that trade wars yield no winners [5] Group 2: Financial and Corporate Performance - The China Construction Machinery Industry Association reported that excavator sales reached 120,500 units in the first half of the year, marking a 16.8% year-on-year increase [8] - Longling Hydraulic announced a tender offer to acquire 12% of its shares at 36.24 yuan per share [9] - Dongyangguang projected a net profit increase of 157%-193% year-on-year for the first half of the year, with its intelligent robotics business generating revenue [10] - China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry expect net profit growth of 98%-119% and 182%-238% respectively for the first half of the year [11] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to raise up to 1.95 billion yuan through a private placement for the industrialization of ultra-high-purity metal sputtering targets [13] Group 3: Market Trends - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.09% and the S&P 500 up 0.27%, both reaching new closing highs [14] - Bitcoin surpassed $117,000, setting a new historical high [19] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude futures for August down 2.65% and Brent crude futures for September down 2.21% [20]

巴西总统卢拉：美国征收关税的理由不实。与特朗普的关税战可能是无休止的。巴西厌倦了屈从于全球 北方。 ...

Diplomatic Response - Brazil's Foreign Ministry has returned the letter from President Trump, citing it as "offensive and factually incorrect" regarding the trade deficit claims [4][3] - Brazil summoned the U.S. chargé d'affaires to verify the authenticity of the letter [4] Economic Strategy - Brazil's Agriculture Minister stated that the U.S. tariff of 50% on Brazilian exports is an "unjust measure" [6] - Brazil is looking to find alternative markets in regions like the Middle East and South Asia to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [6] - The Brazilian government plans to expand markets and reduce trade barriers to support its agricultural and livestock sectors [6] Political Measures - A specialized working group will be established by the Brazilian government to address the tariff issue [8] - Brazil's Finance Minister criticized the U.S. decision, highlighting that Brazil has had a trade deficit with the U.S. exceeding $400 billion over the past 15 years, suggesting the tariff lacks economic justification [8] International Opinion - Brazilian President Lula refuted Trump's claims about unfair trade practices, citing U.S. statistics showing a trade surplus of approximately $410 billion for the U.S. over the last 15 years [10] - Lula emphasized Brazil's sovereignty and independence from external interference in its judicial processes [12]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].