随着8月1日的最后期限日益临近，"懂王"特朗普就对等关税释放了新的信号。 当地时间7月23日，特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的简单关税。他还表示，"你 不可能与所有国家都谈判达成协议"。 这意味着，美国针对全球多数国家对等关税税率的下限有所提高，这无疑超出了市场的预期。 关税战步步紧逼 特朗普在社交媒体发文批评道，"我们的利率应该比现在低三个百分点，每年（作为一个国家）可以为 我们节省1万亿美元。美联储这个固执的家伙就是不明白。美联储委员会应该采取行动，但他们没有勇 气这样做！" 对此，BK Asset Management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格表示，也许是意识到解雇鲍威尔并不容易，所以特 朗普转向攻略美联储董事会的想法似乎更为现实，但这也很难实现利率目标。 近期，特朗普宣布，美国与多个国家已达成贸易协议。其中，美国把对日关税税率从此前威胁的25%降 至15%，以换取日本对美国开放部分产品的市场以及对美投资5500亿美元（美国将获得该笔投资90%的 利润）。 此外，美国与菲律宾、印尼等亚洲国家陆续达成贸易协议，并对后者均征收19%的关税。 目前，包括韩国、印度和欧盟成员国在内的其他国家目前 ...

此轮投票共有24名蓝营"立委"上榜。如果同意罢免的人数多 于不同意的人数，且同意票高于选区投票人的25%，罢免即成 立。决战时刻即将到来之际，台湾蓝、绿两大阵营均吹响了冲 锋号。 作者：王义伟 封图：本报资料库 7月26日（周六），备受瞩目的台湾大罢免将举行投票。根据台湾选务部门发布的信息，此轮投票 共有24名蓝营"立委"上榜。如果同意罢免的人数多于不同意的人数，且同意票高于选区投票人的 25%，罢免即成立。 决战时刻即将到来之际，台湾蓝、绿两大阵营均吹响了冲锋号。 蓝营方面，将战场比喻为"空战""陆战"两个部分。 "空战"由不受罢免影响的不分区"立委"以及党中央负责，其中不分区"立委"集中力量攻击民进党当 局在台南地区的救灾不力，国民党中央则通过网络、电视发布大量广告片，呼吁支持者务必出来投 票反对罢免。 《中国时报》7月23日发表题为"政治优先，关税冲击产业生存"的社论，同日发表题为"美国安大 棒《232条款》来势汹汹"的署名评论。 这两篇评论均提到，正在进行的美台关税谈判虽然给台湾很大的压力，但对台湾经济而言，更致命 的威胁来自美国《贸易扩展法》第232条。该条款授权美国总统可基于"国家安全风险"对进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has complicated Trump's position, particularly in response to China's unexpected hardline measures on rare earth exports, which have heightened pressure on the U.S. amid domestic shortages and military stock concerns [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Response to China's Rare Earth Measures - Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine into signing a mineral agreement to develop untapped rare earth resources, only to find that most resources were in Russian-controlled areas, complicating U.S. access [3]. - Due to rare earth shortages, India's automotive industry faced production halts, prompting high-level visits to China to negotiate rare earth exports, which were undermined by India's fraudulent commitments to use the materials [3][4]. - In response to the ineffective traditional channels, Trump adjusted strategies by pressuring global mineral supply chains and increasing investment in rare earth research and development [4][7]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - The Democratic Republic of the Congo, a major cobalt producer, is seeking to reduce reliance on China and is negotiating with the U.S. for priority mining rights, which could serve as leverage against China's rare earth sanctions [5]. - The Pentagon plans to invest billions into domestic rare earth companies to boost development, although the effectiveness of these investments remains uncertain given the current economic climate [7]. - In June, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. surged to 353 tons, a 660% increase from May, indicating a potential easing of export controls and a strategic move to regain leverage in negotiations [7][8]. Group 3: Psychological and Strategic Implications - China's recent surge in rare earth exports reflects a strategic psychological game, as the U.S. struggles to secure rare earth supplies, highlighting the long-term dependency on Chinese resources [8]. - The U.S. faces a significant challenge in developing its own rare earth technologies, which could take at least a decade and involve substantial costs, while China's control over rare earths remains a critical factor in the trade dynamics [8].

美国方面刚释放特朗普访华的消息，马上就高调宣布逮捕中国公民，他们还想"虚空造牌"？然而，特朗普连续犯下战略错误，而且美国自身问题也在加剧， 他已经没有什么资格与中国继续对抗了。而中方就在这个时候出手，断掉美国的后路，具体情况如何？ 日前，多家媒体透露消息称，美国总统特朗普要带领豪华代表团访华。不少人认为，特朗普在与中方进行一系列对抗后，终于意识到"遏华政策"不会带来好 处，还被"稀土牌"卡脖子卡得"翻白眼"，因此选择缓和对华关系。但就在这个时候，特朗普政府突然以"加密货币洗钱、黑客攻击"等借口，逮捕6名中国公 民。特朗普这种"欲加之罪"的操作，似乎要复刻"孟晚舟事件"。而且就在美国对华动手前，特朗普还公开表示"与中国融洽相处很重要"。从这些情况看，美 国还是在进行他们惯用的"虚空造牌"手段，试图给中美谈判增加筹码。 不过从美国自身的情况看，特朗普并没有资格施压中国。在欧洲央行2025年央行论坛上，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言，若关税问题不存在，美国的降息政策早就 实施了。显然，鲍威尔就是暗示特朗普实施的"对等关税"，打乱了美联储的降息计划。而对"是否降息"的问题，鲍威尔没有直接回答，而是强调"美国经济 的情况相对较好 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].

黄金方面： 欧盟对美国的反制关税进一步升级，昨日（7月22日）欧盟委员会宣布，若8月1日前无法与美达成协议，将对720亿欧元美国商品加征30%关税，涉及药品、 半导体等。 同时，印度通知WTO，将对美实施7.25亿美元报复性关税，重点针对汽车零部件及农产品，美印谈判陷入僵局。此外，越南则因转运规避的问题被加征了 40%附加税。 根据美联储观察，9月降息概率已激增至60%，提振了黄金多头势力。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师麦东认为，关税战全面引爆市场，叠加美联储九月降息概率走高，黄金价格突破3400美元，创下五周以来的新高。 技术面：日线上，昨日收大阳线。市场价格逼近3450美元。1小时级别，市场上升趋势出现乖离，但目前并未出现修复迹象，今日重点关注回测3410美元附 近的支撑。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 昨日美国财长贝森特在接受媒体采访时表示，下周一和周二在瑞典的斯德哥尔摩将与中方会面，举行第三轮谈判，讨论是否延长8月12日的最后期限。 今日早间美国公布至7月18日当周API原油库存减少57.7万桶，较前值（增加83.9万桶）有很大的改善。表明旺季的原油消费动力仍在释放。 近期需要重点关注中美的第三轮会谈可能取 ...

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

2025年07月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：国内现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：小幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期仍存，价格存支撑 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 ...

Group 1 - Canada has announced an expansion of steel import tariffs, effective from August 1, to address U.S. steel tariffs and global overcapacity, while excluding the U.S. from these tariffs [1][3] - The new tariffs include a 25% additional tax on steel products containing Chinese melted and cast steel, indicating Canada's alignment with U.S. trade policies against China [3][5] - Canada's actions are seen as an attempt to appease the U.S. and support the return of American manufacturing, despite the negative impact on its own steel industry [3][5] Group 2 - The recent tariff measures raise questions about Canada's commitment to constructive dialogue with China, as expressed by Canadian Foreign Minister Anand at the ASEAN meeting [6] - China has significant trade relations with Canada, particularly in canola, with annual trade worth approximately $2 billion, and Canada has been a major supplier of canola to China [8] - The potential shift of canola trade to Australia, following recent agreements, could negatively impact Canada's agricultural exports to China [8][11]

中国用3个月时间，送给特朗普一记重击，命中了美国霸权的根基。 美国财政部日前公布的数据显示，中国在5月份减持了9亿美元的国债。算上4月减持的82亿美元，以及3月减持的189亿美元，中国已经连续3个月减持美国国 债。 【此前特朗普展示了一张美债在不断增长的图】 同时，这也意味着在3月份从美国第二大"债主"，变成第三大"债主"后，中国依旧维持了这个新的位置。 根据美方的最新数据，美国的第一大"债主"依旧是日本，持有超过1.1万亿的美债。第二大"债主"是英国，持有超过8000亿美元的美债。 中国持有的美债则为7563亿美元。 长期以来，中国在美债上的一举一动，总是相当引人注目，这一次自然也不例外。况且，今年3到5月确实是一个特殊的时间点。 3月份刚好是特朗普关税战的"预告期"；中美关税战开打的时间在4月初；经过了一个多月的交锋，中美于5月中旬在日内瓦举行了会谈。 很显然，中国在3到5月减持美债的做法，与特朗普的关税战大概率是存在联系的。 【中国5月份持有美国国债连续第三个月下降】 通过减持美债，中国可以降低美债价格，提高其收益率，使得美方的融资成本进一步增加。 要知道，美国如今的债务问题已经亮起了预警的红灯。前段时 ...