Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices have reached historical highs due to escalating geopolitical tensions, tight market supply and demand, and increased safe-haven demand, with gold prices rising over 70% this year [1][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On February 2026 COMEX gold futures, the price increased by $46.3, closing at $4,505.7 per ounce, while March 2026 silver futures rose by $2.572, reaching $71.137 per ounce, both marking historical highs [3]. - London spot gold prices also surpassed $4,500 per ounce, and platinum prices increased by over 6%, exceeding $2,300 per ounce, achieving historical highs [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have contributed to geopolitical pressures, while a declining U.S. dollar index has supported the prices of dollar-denominated precious metal futures [4]. - The U.S. dollar index has dropped nearly 10% this year, potentially facing its worst performance since 2003 [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from JPMorgan expect the gold market to continue its upward trend into 2026 due to strong driving factors, with silver demand also anticipated to grow [5]. - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened investor risk aversion, making precious metals one of the best-performing asset classes this year [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The COMEX gold futures for February have risen over 70% this year, while March silver futures have surged approximately 137%, nearly double the increase of gold [8]. - Expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have increased the attractiveness of precious metal assets, as lower rates compress yields on cash-like assets [8]. Group 5: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, have been purchasing gold on a large scale, significantly impacting the traditional supply-demand balance of gold [11]. - This purchasing behavior is driven by a desire to optimize foreign exchange reserve structures and hedge against geopolitical risks, reflecting a long-term strategic shift [11].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new heights, with international gold prices surpassing $4500 per ounce, marking a historical high [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 23 and 24, international gold prices broke through $4500 per ounce, with the highest spot price reported at $4525.83 per ounce and COMEX futures reaching $4555.1 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold T+D also saw a peak at 1016.72 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, which has been a significant driver for the increase [4]. - The U.S. has recently seized oil tankers near Venezuela, contributing to market uncertainty and driving gold prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets [4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside central bank gold purchases and a declining U.S. dollar index, are key factors supporting gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, and inflation data has been below expectations, reinforcing signals for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar index has been on a downward trend, falling from around 100 to approximately 98, with a cumulative decline of over 10% this year, which supports gold prices [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The overall environment for precious metals remains favorable due to ongoing expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in the U.S. and other major economies, alongside a sustained trend of central bank gold purchases [6]. - The market's focus has shifted from tariff negotiations to interest rate expectations, with the potential for increased inflation if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly anticipating further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which may support gold prices due to reduced opportunity costs associated with holding non-yielding assets like gold [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Signs of easing inflation and weak employment growth are contributing to expectations of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1][4]. - Market participants are awaiting the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data for further economic insights [1][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela, are likely to sustain high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a reduction in upward momentum, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a potential continuation of a strong trend [1][4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen above 80, suggesting that the market is in an overbought condition, which may require a period of consolidation before the next upward movement [1][4]. Price Levels - On the upside, if gold prices maintain the psychological level of $4500, they may attempt to reach $4550 and potentially challenge the $4600 mark [1][4]. - On the downside, the primary target for gold prices is around the recent low of $4430, with a potential further decline below $4400 if that level is breached [2][5]. Trading Strategy - Suggested resistance levels for trading are at $4500, $4525, and $4550, while support levels are at $4475, $4450, and $4430 [3][6]. - Recommendations include light positions with a margin of error of ±2 for immediate trading and ±5 for broader strategies, with suggested stop-loss levels [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium continue to rise due to multiple factors, with a significant increase in both futures and spot prices observed in recent months [3][4]. Price Trends - As of December 24, NYMEX platinum futures reached a high of $2395.6 per ounce, while palladium futures peaked at $2058.5 per ounce [1]. - Domestic platinum futures closed at 657.65 yuan per gram, marking a 7% increase, and palladium futures at 578.45 yuan per gram, with a 6.99% rise [1]. - Platinum spot prices increased by 163.9% from 227 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year to 599 yuan per gram, while palladium prices rose by 92.6% from 249.5 yuan per gram to 480.5 yuan per gram [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The chief analyst at Gu Fengda indicates that the fundamental supply-demand imbalance for platinum is expected to persist through 2025, particularly due to a shortage in the spot market [3]. - The recent price increases are supported by loose liquidity and tightening spot market conditions, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve driving prices upward [3][4]. - The demand structure for platinum is diversified across automotive, industrial, jewelry, and investment sectors, while palladium demand is heavily concentrated in automotive applications [4]. Future Projections - Global supply deficits for platinum are projected to expand to 46.4 tons by 2025 and remain at approximately 37.9 tons in 2026, suggesting potential upward price elasticity [5]. - Conversely, palladium is expected to face a surplus of 6 tons in 2025, which may increase to 16.9 tons in 2026, indicating limited upward price potential [5]. Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the positive price trends, there are concerns about market overheating and the potential for price corrections, as the current high prices may not be fully supported by the spot market [6][7]. - The widening price gap between futures and spot prices indicates limited acceptance of current high prices in the spot market, which could lead to arbitrage pressures [7]. - Investors are advised to approach trading with caution, focusing on protecting capital and profits rather than chasing further price increases [6][7]. Futures Market Developments - The Guangxi Futures Exchange is preparing for the first delivery of platinum and palladium futures, with a focus on ensuring smooth operations and addressing investor concerns regarding delivery processes [8][9][10]. - The exchange has established a framework for registered brands and warehouses to facilitate the delivery of platinum and palladium, with training and simulations planned ahead of the delivery start date in May 2026 [10].

近日，国际金价呈现凌厉上攻态势。伦敦现货黄金最高冲至4497美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货更是一举突破4500美元/盎司 大关，触及4530美元/盎司高位。汇丰银行最新预测指出，到2026年，金价有望剑指5000美元/盎司关口。 12月月初，伦敦现货黄金转入高位整固。不过，从12月9日起，黄金连续收出3根阳线，形成标准的"红三兵"看涨形态，顺 利完成突破前蓄力。关键转折发生于12月11日，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，为2025年年内连续第三次会 议降息，累计降息幅度达75个基点；而据12月最新点阵图显示，2026年及2027年，美联储还将各降息25个基点。明确的宽 松路径推动伦敦金当日大涨1.22%，强势突破前期12月1日的压力位，此后便沿着5日均线一路稳健上行，呈现出强劲且可 持续的上涨趋势。考虑到关税对通胀的推升被证实为暂时性因素，当前美联储政策重心已转向防范失业风险，市场预测 2026年至少会有两次降息，基于宽松周期的深化，我们持续看好黄金未来的上涨空间。 不过，需要警惕的是，短期内黄金可能面临显著的回调风险。6日RSI指标已升至90上方，显著突破80的超买界线，显示市 场处于 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月24日，ATFX汇评：本周四是西方重要节日圣诞节，纽约证券交易所、芝商所CME、洲际交易所 ICE旗下的产品都会暂停交易。圣诞节前夜，也就是平安夜，美国的股票和期货市场也会提前数小时收 盘。频繁休市，冲击股票和期货的交易量，本周的资本市场流动性应当偏低。 ▲ATFX图 债券市场来看，最近四个月，美债收益率保持横盘震荡态势，上限4.19%，下限3.95%。美国联邦基金 利率区间为3.5~3.75%，按照上限比较，两者相差44基点。从长周期看，美联储的货币政策偏紧缩，但 紧缩程度较弱。一年期美债收益率为3.52%，与联邦基金利率下限相近，意味着美联储短期内再次降息 的概率较低。 虽然美元指数仍在持续下跌，今日亚盘最低价触及97.7点，但从中期来看，美联储降息的意愿并不强 烈。尤其是美国三季度GDP环比增速达到4.3%之后，CME的美联储观察模型，对美联储降息的概率预 测跌至13.3%。所以，金银短期仍在疯涨，但中期利多因素较少或已进入边际递减状态，警惕触顶回落 风险。 责任编辑：陈平 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 12月24日，ATFX汇评：本周四是西方重要节日圣诞节，纽约证券交易 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed the $4500 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a peak of $4511.93 per ounce, and is currently trading at $4509.73, marking a historical high with an increase of approximately $1880 per ounce this year [1][8] - The price of spot silver also surged, hitting a historical high of $71.87 per ounce, and is currently at $71.78 per ounce, reflecting a 0.45% increase [3][4] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to the weakening labor market in the U.S., as indicated by the November unemployment rate, which supports expectations for continued monetary easing [5] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have seen a notable increase, with several brands raising prices by 35 to 36 yuan per gram, and some jewelry prices have exceeded 1400 yuan per gram, setting new domestic records [6][7] - The year-to-date increase in international spot gold prices has exceeded 70%, with prices in RMB rising over 64%, and gold prices have set new historical highs 50 times this year [8]

Group 1 - Gold continues to rise, reaching new highs due to geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty stimulating safe-haven demand [1][3] - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela, along with mixed economic data and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, creates a favorable environment for gold [3] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%, but consumer confidence remains weak, with the index dropping to 89.1 in December from 92.9 in November [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates multiple rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, driven by slowing inflation and weak job growth [3] - President Trump indicated that his next Fed chair will support significant rate cuts, raising concerns about Fed independence but highlighting the prospect of loose monetary policy [3] - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing a bullish backdrop for its price [3] Group 3 - Gold has confirmed a triple cup and handle pattern, indicating strong bullish momentum [4][7] - The price faced resistance around $4400 but formed a consolidation range, with three cup patterns reflecting stable accumulation and higher lows [4] - The breakout above the $4400 resistance confirms the bullish pattern, suggesting potential price targets of $4800 to $5000 in the coming weeks [7][8] Group 4 - The current strong upward trend in gold is supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and confirmed technical breakouts [8] - The triple cup and handle pattern enhances confidence in the bullish trend, while bullish candlestick patterns indicate further price increases [8] - As long as macro risks persist and rate cut expectations remain dovish, gold prices are likely to continue rising in the upcoming weeks [8]

Core Insights - Precious metals are experiencing a strong bullish trend, with silver surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time and gold approaching the $4500 mark [1][3] - Strong GDP data has boosted demand expectations, leading the S&P 500 index to reach a record closing high [3] - The US dollar continues to weaken under the pressure of interest rate cut expectations [3][7] Market Overview - **Precious Metals**: Silver surged by 3%, breaking the psychological barrier of $70, reaching a historical high of $71.08 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 145%. Gold rose by 0.8%, peaking at $4497.55 per ounce. The driving factors include safe-haven demand, interest rate cut expectations, and a weak dollar. Silver's performance is attributed to a tighter supply-demand balance and strong industrial demand, which has outpaced gold [4] - **Oil Market**: US crude oil increased by 0.64% to $58.38 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 0.5% to $62.38 per barrel. The strong US GDP growth rate of 4.3% supports demand expectations, while geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia provide supply-side support [5] - **Stock Market**: The S&P 500 index rose by 0.46% to a record closing high of 6909.79 points. The Nasdaq increased by 0.57%, and the Dow Jones rose by 0.16%. The better-than-expected GDP data confirms the resilience of the US economy, boosting market sentiment. Nvidia led the tech sector, and growth stocks performed well as the market enters the seasonally bullish "Santa Claus rally" period [6] - **Currency Market**: The US dollar index fell by 0.2% to 98.02, reaching its lowest level since early October. Despite strong GDP data, the market remains convinced that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path in 2026 will not change, putting continued pressure on the dollar. The Japanese yen rebounded by 0.5% amid warnings of intervention from Japanese authorities [7]

（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...