Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in gold prices, with spot gold dropping by $20 to below $3160 per ounce, marking a 2.56% decrease on May 16 [1] - On the same day, the price of gold jewelry fell below 1000 yuan per gram, reflecting a broader trend in the gold market [2] - Factors contributing to the decline in gold prices include progress in US-China tariff negotiations, a decrease in geopolitical tensions, and a failure to maintain the psychological support level of $3200 per ounce, leading to increased technical selling pressure [4] Group 2 - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, which cooled market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar that further pressured gold prices [5] - Citigroup has revised its gold price outlook, lowering the three-month target from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, a reduction of 10%, citing easing tariff concerns as a key reason for the price adjustment [5] - Citigroup's analysts predict that gold prices will oscillate between $3000 and $3300 per ounce in the near term, indicating a more rational volatility in the current complex market environment [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a significant reversal, with spot gold prices initially dropping nearly 2% to $3120.64, before rebounding to close at $3239.58, marking a daily increase of nearly 2% and a fluctuation of over $100 [1] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced demand for safe-haven assets due to easing trade war concerns and a strengthening dollar, while a recovery in physical demand provided some support [14] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with April's PPI experiencing its largest decline in five years, retail sales slowing, and the New York Fed manufacturing index contracting again, which has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the Fed [5] - Despite concerns about a potential recession, there is a cautious optimism among investors as the U.S. stock market shows resilience, although macro and micro-level risks remain [6] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate to 8.00%, with indications that similar reductions may follow in future meetings [8] - Goldman Sachs has revised its economic growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting GDP stability in 2025 and an increase in growth expectations for 2026 [8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in Israel escalated as Houthi forces claimed to have targeted Ben Gurion International Airport with a missile strike, indicating a potential increase in military actions [9][11] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have faced delays, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and agenda of future talks [12]

关 注 我 们 获 目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 贵金属市场周报 关税局势显著缓和，金价如期大幅回调 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：受关税及地缘风险缓和影响，贵金属市场本周大幅走弱。周初印度和巴基斯坦达成 停火协议削弱避险需求，中美贸易谈判取得突破性进展更是令市场风险偏好显著回暖，美国对 华关税税率由145%大幅下调至30%，中国对美关税也降至10%，大幅超市场预期的关税谈判进展 推动美元和美债收益率同步走强，金价承压下行。随后公布的美国4月通胀数据虽现回升但整 体延续放缓趋势，CPI同比增速2.3%低于预期，核心CPI持平于2.8%，关税相关的价格压力尚未 完全传导至消费端，这为美联储后续政策转向预留空间。美国4月PPI放缓及制造业数据疲软暗 示企业正承受关税压力，零售销售增速显著回落印证消费动能减弱，叠加鲍威尔发言再度强调 未来经济形势的不确定性，经济数据分化 ...

【消息面】 2，小时图，黄金早间上涨3252美元附近转空回落，K线3连阴，当前运行在3209美元附近，KDJ指标超买后转为了高位死叉，附图拐头向下， MACD指标红色多头动能缩量，短线走势相对偏空。结合日线走势看，黄金日内操作倾向上涨做空单为主，短多思路交易，下方关注中轨3196美 元支撑，上方关注早间高点3252美元破位情况。 【5.16黄金交易建议】 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，黄金波幅较大，亚盘黄金上涨3192.7美元震荡下跌，欧盘黄金跌至60日均线3121美元触底反弹，晚间黄金重新站上3200美元， 最高涨至3240.4美元，日涨幅120美金，日线收下影大阳线，TRIX趋势依旧是死叉，MACD指标绿色空头动能放量，日线走势未明显转多，走势 依旧相对偏空。 周四，黄金市场出现了"惊天逆转"的大行情，黄金价格在亚市早盘曾下跌近2%触及的3120.64美元（逾一个月低点），随后多头展开反攻，帮助金 价暴力拉升，最终收于3239.58美元，单日涨幅近2%，振幅超过100美元！ 周五（5月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金延续涨势，一度顶破3250关口至3252.06美元/盎司，一方面是俄乌和谈推迟至周五， ...

操作思路： 日线级别，金价昨日上演超级过山车走势录得低位阴转阳收盘，盘中曾一度下探3120低点后快速收复本周大部分跌幅，至此局面或令短期陷入更大空间内争 夺，交易者暂关注3150-3260范围内多空拉扯。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3415高位连续下跌后本周破位3200关口延续下探，隔夜盘中曾短暂测试3120后迅速 回升重新收复3200扩大涨势。截止当前欧盘前，价格虽回吐部分空间但仍守住3200以上范围盘踞，或有望结束单边下行后转向震荡区间运行。交易者日内以 3170--3250区间内震荡操作为主，关注短期市场突破选择。 美元指数0.2%的跌幅看似微不足道，但在特定背景下却成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草。周四的行情完美诠释了这一点。在疲软经济数据打压下，周四美元 指数下跌0.2%至100.82回附近；实际利率下行：10年期TIPS收益率跌至1.8%下方。周四的数据为美联储降息创造了更大的空间，市场形成了更加鸽派的预 期。 地缘局势方面，俄乌局势在5月15日出现戏剧性转折，普京拒绝与泽连斯基会面，仅派出"二级官员代表团"。泽连斯基怒斥："这是对我个人、对埃尔多安、 对特朗普的不尊重"。俄罗斯外长发言人冷嘲："乌克兰 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing decline in spot gold prices, which have reached a nearly one-month low, prompting discussions among investors about the changing role of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Recent positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions have significantly reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven, leading to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [3][4] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite being theoretically favorable for gold, is currently overshadowed by a rising risk appetite and a strengthening US dollar, which are exerting downward pressure on gold prices [4] Group 2 - Goldrong China, as a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, offers various services to help investors navigate the volatile gold market, including compliance and security measures that ensure transaction transparency and data safety [6] - The platform supports flexible trading mechanisms, allowing for T+0 trading and low spreads, enabling investors to capitalize on price fluctuations while managing risks through stop-loss and take-profit tools [7] - Educational resources and strategy support are provided to assist both novice and professional investors in optimizing their trading strategies and understanding market dynamics [7] Group 3 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain under pressure due to improved trade conditions and a stronger dollar, but long-term support factors persist, such as ongoing central bank gold purchases and inflation and debt risks [9] - The World Gold Council's China CEO suggests that investors should view gold from an asset allocation perspective, recommending a portfolio allocation of 10%-15% to avoid impulsive trading decisions [9] - The volatility in the gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, emphasizing the importance of rational macroeconomic analysis and the use of appropriate tools for investors to seize structural opportunities during this adjustment phase [10]

周四，美元在一系列美国经济数据公布后出现下滑。这些数据包括一项衡量消费者健康状况的指标，显 示由于经济前景不明朗影响了消费者信心，4月份零售销售增长放缓。美国商务部称，上月零售销售微 升0.1%，3月增幅上修为1.7%，而路透访查的经济学家的预期是保持不变。此前公布的3月份零售销售 增长1.5%，部分原因是消费者在特朗普宣布加征关税之前提前购买了汽车等商品。 零售销售增长放缓 4月份零售销售增长放缓，显示出消费者信心受到经济前景不明朗的影响。美国商务部的数据显示，上 月零售销售微升0.1%，低于经济学家预期的保持不变。这一数据反映了消费者在当前经济环境下的谨 慎态度，尤其是在贸易政策不确定性增加的背景下。 生产者物价指数下降 美国劳工部的另一份报告称，最终需求生产者物价指数（PPI）在上个月下降了0.5%，而3月份经向上 修正后为保持不变。这一下降主要归因于航空旅行和酒店住宿需求的减弱，这与特朗普的贸易保护主义 政策、打击移民以及一些争议性言论导致游客人数急剧下降有关。 衡量美元兑一篮子货币汇率的美元指数在盘中最多下跌0.43%之后，纽约尾盘下跌0.11%至100.89。欧元 兑美元上涨0.02%，报1.11 ...

金老虎：黄金 V 型反转暗藏玄机！地缘谈判生变，金价或迎加速行情 尝下味道，才知酸甜苦辣，回忆一下过往，才知一路走的不容易，走着路，听着风，树叶摇晃着，阳光 照在脸上，站在十字街头看着远方，方向如何去选择还是需要自己去抉择，既然判断失误就不要后悔， 既然出现止损就立马休息，就如同巴菲特说的一样，人在出现亏损和情绪波动很大的时候，做的一切的 决定都是用两个来形容：愚蠢； 黄金 黄金拉升的原因 1：美国经济数据不佳：美国 4 月经济数据表现较差，生产者物价指数意外下降 0.5%，远低于预期的增 长 0.2%；零售销售增速从 3 月的 1.7% 断崖式下滑至 0.1%；制造业产出下降 0.4%，远超预期的 0.2% 降幅。这一系列数据表明美国经济放缓，使得美联储降息预期升温，美债收益率大幅下跌，美元指数也 承压下行，为金价提供了上涨动能。 2：地缘政治风险升温：俄乌和谈推迟，双方领导人均不再出席，市场打消了俄乌双方快速达成和平协 议的预期，避险资金和逢低买盘快速回归黄金市场。同时，伊朗核协议谈判陷入胶着，地缘政治风险的 集中爆发，让黄金的避险属性得到彰显。 回顾完了，昨天黄金跳水拉升的原因，简单说下今天黄金行情该如 ...