金九银十
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不锈钢月报:淡季政策托底,静候旺季动能-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 14:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, with the continuous fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and the stainless - steel market was also boosted, starting a small upward trend, reaching the high point after the unexpected tariff fermentation in early April. However, it is still in the traditional off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The effect of steel mill production cuts on improving the supply - demand contradiction is limited. [11][12] - Policy incentives have stimulated the speculative demand of traders, accelerating inventory digestion. Since downstream inventories are at a low level, market sentiment has improved, consumer enterprises' willingness to replenish inventories has increased, and steel mills' order acceptance in August is good. [11][12] - Looking forward to August, with the continuation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the overall pessimism in the industrial chain has eased. The stocking demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" may be released in advance, and the upstream and downstream may form a virtuous cycle, with steel mills' profits expected to recover. Additionally, the 90 - day postponement of the effective time for the resumption of Sino - US tariffs may boost stainless - steel exports and relieve the pressure on domestic sales. [11][12] - Overall, the market still needs to further observe whether terminal consumption has truly recovered and whether the situation of "insufficient effective demand" can be improved. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Changes**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. [11][16] - **Supply**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [11][30] - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [11][40][43] - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel this week were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [11][50][53] - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [11][60] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: On August 8, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Thursday afternoon was 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.52%. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton. [11][16] - **Market Quotations and Positions**: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 250 yuan (+1) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 150 yuan (+51) over the main contract. The open interest on the futures market was 235,870 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15.68%. [20] - **Spread**: The spread between contract 1 and contract 2 was reported at - 50 (+0), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 was reported at - 80 (+20). [23] 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. The crude steel production in July was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. [27] - **300 - Series Production**: In June, the estimated production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the production of 300 - series cold - rolled steel was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%. [30] - **Indonesian Production and Imports**: In June, the estimated monthly production of stainless steel in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons in June, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72%. [33] - **Export Situation**: In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year. [36] 3.4 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 458.5055 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. In June alone, the commercial housing sales area was 105.3536 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. [40] - **Home Appliances and Fuel Processing**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4%. [43] - **Other Industries**: In June, the production of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. The automobile sales volume in June was 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. [46] 3.5 Inventory - **Total and Futures Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1063 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. [50] - **Series Inventory and Port - Related Quantities**: This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 213,100 tons, 657,600 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 37,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.18%, and the unloading volume was 99,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.24%. [53] 3.6 Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: In June, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the price of nickel ore with 1.5% nickel content is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. [57] - **Ferronickel**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan/nickel from last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 106 yuan/nickel. [60] - **Chromium - Related**: This week, the price of chrome ore was quoted at 55 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from last week; the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 7,900 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In June, the production of high - carbon ferrochrome was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53%. [63] - **Production Profit**: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel ferronickel production line is - 687 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is - 5%. [66]
9月CP价格涨幅不及预期 终端消费未见起色
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-08 06:59
前期,国际原油价格大跌,打压液化气市场。目前,投资者观望情绪加重,液化气上行动力不足,叠加 需求端恢复仍未有起色,短期液化气期价或维持弱势振荡。中长期来看,市场对9月中下旬及10月需求 预期较为乐观。 9月CP价格涨幅不及预期 7—8月国内液化气市场需求量较前期变化不大,且表现一般。虽然在价格上涨过程中,部分贸易商进行 补库囤货操作,但库存也只是从上游向社会库存转移,实际终端消耗有限。目前,终端需求仍未出现好 转迹象。近期,多地现货市场走跌,下游仍以阶段性补货为主,入市较为谨慎。 供应方面,国内液化气商品库存总量处在相对高位,当前值在43.16万吨,环比增加0.38万吨,相比4月 初的34万—35万吨,涨幅在25%左右。其中,华南地区库存上升较为明显。除东北地区外,其余地区库 存均有小幅上升。一方面,因为下游观望情绪浓厚,入市积极性不高;另一方面,短期国内炼厂无检修 和停工计划,炼厂开工平稳。 液化气基差逐渐收窄 近期,液化气期货主力2011合约承压下行。基差方面,上市初期主力合约基差在193.67元/吨,随后基差 不断回归,自4月底开始呈现明显的现货贴水现象,最小值一度达到-1008.33元/吨。截至9月1 ...
房东一次降380万,带看猛增!杭州“亚运村”交付满1年,二手房还在“以价换量”!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 19:50
Core Viewpoint - The recent significant price drop of 3.8 million yuan for a property in the Greentown Gui Guan Dongfang has sparked discussions, highlighting the current state of the second-hand housing market in the Asian Games Village area [1][3]. Property Pricing and Market Dynamics - The Greentown Gui Guan Dongfang property was initially listed at 11.8 million yuan, equating to approximately 68,000 yuan per square meter, and was later reduced to 8 million yuan, resulting in a price of about 46,300 yuan per square meter [4]. - The property has seen a surge in viewing interest, with an average of over one group viewing per day in the past week, and more than 40 potential buyers showing interest [4][9]. - Despite the price drop, the property remains unsold due to additional costs such as parking spaces, which are priced at 800,000 yuan for two spaces, making the effective price less attractive [9]. Market Trends and Comparisons - The Asian Games Village area has a diverse range of properties, with prices varying significantly based on location, building type, and unit size, leading to a wide price range in the second-hand market [11]. - The average listing price for second-hand properties in the Asian Games Village is around 70,000 to 80,000 yuan per square meter, with some properties still priced close to their original purchase price [13]. - The overall second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has seen a decline in transaction volume in July, with 6,840 units sold, a decrease from June, but still showing resilience compared to the same period in previous years [16][17]. Future Market Outlook - Market analysts predict a potential upward trend in the housing market during the traditional peak selling months of September and October, with expectations that prices will stabilize and possibly increase [15][17]. - The current market is characterized by a strategy of "price for volume," indicating that sellers are adjusting prices to attract buyers amid a high inventory level of approximately 160,000 listings [17].
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250807
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **沪镍**: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The industry chain presents a situation where ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains at a low level. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that Shanghai nickel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are weakly stable, sea freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices are weakly stable with some slight increases, but the cost line is still at a low level. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that stainless steel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On August 6, the price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,070, up 160 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 15,130, up 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,935, down 25. The nickel index of Wuxi trading center was 121,100, up 700, and the cold - rolled coil index was 12,520, up 20 [12]. - **Spot**: On August 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,100, up 200; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,200, up 200; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,300, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 123,400, up 200. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 6, LME nickel inventory was 211,452, an increase of 198; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789, a decrease of 134; the total inventory was 232,241, an increase of 64 [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 1, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. On August 6, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,803, a decrease of 62 [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 6, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 918 yuan per nickel point, up 2; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,400 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [23]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,832, the production cost using scrap steel is 13,477, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,404 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 122,262 yuan per ton [28]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Negative factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; nickel ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains at a low level; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [7].
沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250806
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:37
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market of nickel has a slight correction, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season from July to August, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has a slight increase this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the ocean freight is firm, and the price of ferronickel is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and the stainless - steel consumption has entered the off - season. The stainless steel 2509 contract will also fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Changes** - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview**: On August 5th, the price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120910 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the price of London nickel was 15055 dollars, down 50 dollars; the price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12960 yuan, up 35 yuan. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121900 yuan, up 650 yuan [12]. - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, down 1 dollar; the high - nickel ferronickel was 916 yuan/nickel point, up 2 yuan [24]. **Inventory Changes** - **Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, LME nickel inventory was 211254 tons, an increase of 2172 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 20923 tons, a decrease of 247 tons [15]. - **Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. On August 1st, the national stainless - steel inventory was 111.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons compared with the previous period, but the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.67 million tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12807 yuan, the waste - steel production cost was 13477 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16399 yuan [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price of nickel was 121536 yuan/ton [29].
PTA:宏观情绪企稳不过油价仍偏弱 短期PTA偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-06 02:05
Market Overview - On August 5, PTA futures experienced low-level narrow fluctuations, with a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. The basis was weak, and trading was mainly based on negotiations, with a small number of polyester factories making sales. Mainstream suppliers had some sales, with August cargo trading at a discount of 12 to 25 yuan/ton, and prices negotiated in the range of 4650 to 4660 yuan/ton. September transactions were at par and slightly above the September futures [1] Profitability - As of August 5, the PTA spot processing fee was around 140 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 271 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 1, PTA operating load decreased to 72.6%, a drop of 7.3%. - Demand: As of August 1, polyester operating load slightly decreased to approximately 88.1%, a decline of 0.6%. On August 5, the price of polyester filament showed a slight downward adjustment, with overall sales being sluggish. Current inventory levels at filament factories are manageable, and prices are mainly adjusting slightly with raw materials. Terminal loads are temporarily maintained, awaiting the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Future attention will be on crude oil prices and the initiation of the peak season [3] Market Outlook - With low processing fees, there will be an increase in PTA plant maintenance in August. The supply and demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations. However, with the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Helun Petrochemical and continued weak new orders from terminals, the medium-term supply and demand outlook for PTA is weak. Additionally, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase expectations. Short-term PTA is expected to experience weak fluctuations, but as market macro sentiment gradually stabilizes, there may be emotional support for PTA. Strategies include exiting TA short positions and monitoring support around 4600, as well as rolling back TA9-1 operations and expanding low PTA processing fees around 250 [4]
瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:19
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The raw - material cost support has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly. The production profit of steel mills has improved, and it is expected that the steel production in August will increase. The end of the traditional off - season in the downstream, optimistic expectations for the peak season, and favorable domestic fiscal investment policies are likely to improve the supply - demand pattern. The inventory of domestic stainless steel has been well reduced, and the market inventory pressure has eased. Technically, with a slight increase in positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,960 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26,760 lots, down 1,983 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,949 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 102,865 tons, down 60 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 915 yuan/nickel point, up 5 yuan; the monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, up 2,300 tons; the monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 30,3643,200 square meters, up 71,807,100 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, up 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, down 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may remain as a governor. The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, which will take effect this week. On the raw - material side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts the supply and increases the cost, but the ferronickel production in Indonesia has rebounded significantly [2].
交银国际:7月传统淡季下新能源车市温和增长 预计8月环比改善
智通财经网· 2025-08-05 07:35
Core Insights - July saw a moderate growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market despite being a traditional off-peak season for passenger car sales, with delivery volume growth slowing down year-on-year [2][3] - The overall delivery volume of NEVs in July showed a year-on-year increase of 11.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 6.2% among 11 car manufacturers [2][3] - The upcoming months are expected to see improved sales as multiple new models are set to launch, coinciding with the traditional peak sales season in September and October [6] Company Summaries - **BYD**: In July, BYD sold 341,030 passenger vehicles, a slight year-on-year increase but a month-on-month decrease of 9.7%. Exports reached 80,178 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 159.5% [2][3] - **Xiaomi Auto**: Achieved over 30,000 deliveries in July, marking a new monthly delivery record [2] - **Horizon Smart Mobility**: Delivered 47,752 units in July, an 8.3% increase year-on-year, but a 9.5% decrease month-on-month [3] - **Xpeng Motors**: Delivered 36,717 units in July, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 229.4% and 6.1%, respectively, setting a new monthly delivery record [3] - **Li Auto**: Delivered 30,731 units in July, with year-on-year and month-on-month declines of 39.7% and 15.3% [3] - **NIO**: Delivered 21,017 units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.7% [4] - **Leap Motor**: Achieved 50,129 deliveries in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 127% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [4] - **Avita**: Delivered 10,062 units in July, with a year-on-year increase of 177.6% but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.9% [5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to improve in August as several new models are set to launch, including Li Auto's i6 and new versions of Xpeng's P7 and Horizon's R7 and S7 [6] - The industry remains optimistic about BYD's smart driving and export capabilities, as well as Xpeng's new model launches contributing to sales and profit margin improvements [6]
8月市场有望实现去库 PTA价格重心或呈现窄幅上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-04 09:02
Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction in August due to increased maintenance and a potential recovery in downstream demand during the traditional peak season [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell by 2.02%, with the current spot price in East China at 4750 CNY/ton and a basis rate of 0.13% [1]. - As of August 4, the main PTA futures contract closed at 4698.00 CNY/ton, down 1.34%, with a daily trading volume of 505,907 lots [2]. Group 2: Price Information - The price list for PTA on August 4 shows various brands and their market prices, with the highest being 5300 CNY/ton for Yisheng in Hubei Province and the lowest at 4720 CNY/ton for Hengli in Suzhou [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average capacity utilization rate for PTA is 79.67%, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production at 1.4261 million tons, down by 18,900 tons from the previous week [4]. - As of August 1, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 27,731, a decrease of 2,007 from the previous trading day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that with more PTA facilities entering maintenance in August, the oversupply situation will ease, and if maintenance plans are realized along with a recovery in terminal demand, the PTA market may achieve inventory reduction and a slight price increase [5].
【期货热点追踪】日本橡胶价格小幅上涨,上期所橡胶主力合约连续四天下跌,“金九银十”旺季将至,后市该如何看待?
news flash· 2025-08-04 04:31
日本橡胶价格小幅上涨,上期所橡胶主力合约连续四天下跌,"金九银十"旺季将至,后市该如何看待? 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...