Economic Overview - The national economy is maintaining a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, and overall stability in employment and prices [1][3] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate stands at 5.2%, consistent with the average value [3] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a change of 0.0, indicating no inflation [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 3.6%, compared to a previous decrease of 2.9% [3]

Group 1 - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is "correction" rather than "stimulation," aiming to reshape the logic of industrial competition [2][6] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on prices is structural and mild, with future price trends dependent on the strength of demand recovery and the pace of policy coordination [2][6] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address low-price disorderly competition in certain sectors rather than driving up prices, as the fundamental factor determining prices remains supply and demand [2][3] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the year, signals of the "anti-involution" policy have been continuously reinforced, with various measures taken to address "involution-style" competition [3] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law prohibits selling goods below cost, providing a legal basis for combating "involution-style" competition [3] - Recent data shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has maintained a low level of -3.6% year-on-year in July, but the month-on-month decline has narrowed, indicating some stabilization in industrial prices [4] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains weak overall, but the core CPI has rebounded for three consecutive months, benefiting from reduced price wars in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4] - The improvement in PPI is primarily seen in upstream raw materials and industrial products, which have a low direct correlation with consumer spending [5] - The transmission mechanism from PPI to CPI remains ineffective, as insufficient terminal consumer demand limits companies' pricing power [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant impact of the July PPI data on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a shift in sentiment away from aggressive rate cuts [1][2] - The July PPI year-on-year rate increased to 3.3%, up from a previous value of 2.4%, and the month-on-month rate rose to 0.9%, compared to a previous value of 0.00% [1] - The PPI data has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September dropping to around 85% from 100% [2] Group 2 - The communication from Federal Reserve officials before and after the PPI data release indicates a strategic effort to maintain policy flexibility and manage market expectations regarding rate cuts [3] - The remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggest a cautious approach to potential rate cuts, with concerns about inflation pressures from tariffs [3] - The market reaction to the PPI data included a halt in the upward trend of U.S. stocks, a significant drop in gold prices, a decline in Bitcoin, and a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, while the dollar index recovered its previous losses [3]

Market Sentiment & Fed Policy - The stock market's record-setting run is heavily reliant on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the fall [1] - Despite a hot PPI print, the stock market remained relatively flat, suggesting investors bought the dip [2] - The worst-case scenario for investors is the Fed hiking interest rates; a neutral stance could be seen as positive, indicating the economy can withstand current rates [4] - A 25 or 50 basis point cut by the Fed to normalize real interest rates could be positive for stocks [5] - The conversation has shifted from a 25 or 50 basis point cut to a 25 basis point cut or no cut at all [6] - The economy appears to be holding up under the current interest rates, even though the Fed's policy rates are higher compared to the rest of the world [7] - A 25 basis point cut could be perceived as hawkish if the Fed signals a "wait and see" approach [8] Investor Positioning - Many investors are positioned for a pickup in inflation and were expecting a hot PPI number, which is why the market reaction was muted [8][9]

Market Reaction to Economic Data - Initial limited market reaction to hot PPI and tame claims data [1] - Market opinion diverges from Fed speak, prioritizing job numbers over inflation data [3][4] - Dollar index slid after weak jobs report and failed to recover, indicating market sentiment [4] Interest Rate Expectations - Two and ten-year Treasury yields initially rose following the hot PPI data, increasing by approximately 005% to 006% [2] - Market anticipates a rate cut in September, based on Fed fund futures [5] - Fed fund futures pricing of 55% or higher three to five sessions before a meeting typically leads the Fed to align with market expectations [4] Jobs Report Impact - Poor jobs report for July, including negative revisions, had a significant impact on the market [3] - Market reaction to the jobs report was more pronounced than the reaction to inflation data [3]

PPI AND CORE PPI CAME WAY HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.TREASURY SECRETARY SAYS THAT US GOVERNMENT WON'T BUY BITCOIN.TURKISH CRYPTO EXCHANGE GOT HACKED FOR $49 MILLION.AND ALL THIS HAS HAPPENED WITHIN THE LAST 2 HOURS.THIS IS WWIII ON MY PORTFOLIO. ...

Group 1 - The US July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The US July PPI month-on-month rate recorded a 0.9% increase, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 is 224,000, slightly below the expected 228,000 [1] Group 2 - Binance co-founder He Yi has been selected as a global leader by Fortune, co-owning the venture capital arm YZi Labs and holding at least 10% of Binance's parent company [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Bitcoin reserves are valued between $15 billion and $20 billion, and there will be no purchases of cryptocurrency reserves [2] - Bessent indicated a potential for a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction [2] Group 3 - Tron founder Justin Sun has filed a lawsuit against Bloomberg in Delaware, claiming the disclosure of his crypto assets violates previous confidentiality agreements [2] - The Guizhou provincial government has refuted rumors regarding a former official allegedly mining 327 Bitcoins, clarifying that the case is unrelated to Bitcoin [3]

美国7月PPI同比上涨3.3%，前值由2.3%修正为2.4%；7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，前值为0%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

受服务成本飙升推动，美国7月PPI环比加速上升，创下三年来最大涨幅。 美国劳工统计局周四公布数据显示： 美国7月PPI同比涨幅从前月的2.3%飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高水平，并且远超预期的2.5%，美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期 0.2%，前值 0%。 7月核心PPI同比3.7%为2月以来最高水平，预期3%，前值 2.6%，核心PPI环比0.9%为2022年4月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值0%。 数据公布后，美股三大股指期货快速走低，纳指期货日内跌0.36%，标普500指数期货跌0.35%，道指期货跌0.29%。美元指数短线拉升，日内涨0.21%。现货 黄金小幅走低，日内跌0.32%。 PPI部分类别对于美联储青睐的PCE物价指数计算很重要： 航空客运服务量在6月份下降2.3%之后，7 月份又环比增长 1%。 投资组合管理成本继6月份环比上涨 2.1% 之后，7月份又环比上涨5.8%。 家庭保健和临终关怀继6月份环比增长0.2%之后，又放缓至环比增长0.1%。 医院门诊量环比下降0.5%，6月份环比增长0.9%。 此外，追随油价的上涨，PPI能源价格正在加速上涨。 ...

PPI came in VERY hot.Essentially meaning Inflation is rather high.This does not bode well for rate cuts happening.However, the FedWatch is still anticipating a rate cut in september at 94.5% chanceOctober, currently pricing in a 59% chance at a SECOND rate cut, 39% chance at it staying flat after September cut&& what is even WILDER is December is a 47.8% chance at a THIRD rate cut, with a 42.9% chance that it stays flat after a SECOND rate cut in October... ...