Inflation Data Summary - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and recorded -0.1% year-on-year, remaining in the negative growth range[2] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies[2] - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[2] - Seasonal vegetable supply increased, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, while fresh fruit prices rose by 3.3% due to supply constraints[13] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI continued to decline, recording -3.3% year-on-year and -0.4% month-on-month[3] - International commodity prices fell sharply, impacting sectors like oil and gas extraction, which saw a price drop of 5.6%[20] - Consumer goods prices showed some recovery, with clothing and durable goods prices increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively[20] - New energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries experienced a narrowing of price declines, with reductions of -12.1% and -5.0% respectively[21] Economic Outlook - Overall inflation data indicates a low operating level, with both CPI and PPI in negative growth ranges, reflecting insufficient effective demand in the economy[23] - Despite short-term pressure from food and energy prices, core CPI stabilization and structural improvements suggest that policy measures are gradually taking effect[23] - The monetary policy is expected to remain flexible and appropriate, potentially utilizing tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stabilize domestic demand and market expectations[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persists, and prices remain stable with strong cost support. However, the oversupply of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to experience a weak oscillation in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, despite steel mill production cuts, overall demand is sluggish, leading to inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,280 yuan/ton and closed at 122,710 yuan/ton, a 0.47% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, and the open interest was 76,246 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose rapidly in the night session, then oscillated and fell back to near the previous day's closing price. In the day session, it oscillated up to near the night - session high and then slightly declined, closing with a medium - sized positive candle. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have implemented production cuts due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area persists due to rainfall. The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month [2][3][4]. - China's estimated refined nickel output in June is 37,345 tons, a 3.75% increase month - on - month. In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The refined nickel spot trading was average, with the oversupply situation remaining unchanged but strong cost support at the bottom [2]. - The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,192 (35.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,092 (- 1,014) tons [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Range - bound operation. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 9, 2025, the main contract 2507 of stainless steel opened at 12,715 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,364 lots, and the open interest was 146,067 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and fell to the previous low after a slight consolidation in the night session. In the day session, it dropped rapidly to a new low and then rebounded slightly, closing with a medium - sized negative candle. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Similar to the nickel situation, the shipping efficiency of the Surigao mining area in the Philippines has recovered well. Iron plants have cut production due to losses, weakening the demand for nickel ore. The nickel ore supply shortage in the Sulawesi nickel mining area in Indonesia persists due to rainfall [3][4]. - The domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, with a premium of +26 - 28, and the overall price was basically flat month - on - month. The high - nickel iron price is 950 - 960 yuan/nickel, and some Indonesian iron plants have switched to high - grade nickel matte production [4]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price dropped slightly. The price limit of Tsingshan 304 hot - and cold - rolled products was lowered by 100 yuan, and traders' cold - rolled prices followed suit. The market had rigid demand for purchases, and the trading of low - price resources was average. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,050 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 465 - 665 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 949.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - Short - term: Neutral. - Mid - to long - term: Sell on rallies for hedging. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

Group 1 - In May 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the purchasing price index fell by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [2] - The average PPI and purchasing prices from January to May 2025 both declined by 2.6% compared to the same period last year [2] - The decline in domestic prices is influenced by international factors, particularly the drop in international crude oil prices, which led to a 5.6% decrease in the oil and gas extraction industry and a 3.5% decrease in refined petroleum product manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The coal mining and washing industry saw a price drop of 3.0%, while coal processing prices fell by 1.1% due to seasonal demand and sufficient inventory [2] - The black metal smelting and rolling industry, along with the non-metallic mineral products industry, experienced a price decline of 1.0% due to ample supply of construction materials [2] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has widened by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, but some industries are showing signs of price recovery due to improved supply-demand relationships [3] Group 3 - Consumer demand is recovering, leading to price increases in living materials, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption [3] - The development of high-end equipment manufacturing is contributing to price increases in related industries, reflecting a trend towards high-tech product demand [3] - The transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green industries is progressing steadily, with some sectors experiencing year-on-year price increases [3]

2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：社库累库，价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅：短期供需双弱，中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Core CPI showed a modest improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% and a month-on-month improvement to 1.2% SAAR, indicating a recovery since the policy pivot in September 2024 [2] - PPI deflation pressures continue, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% for three consecutive months, leading to a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [3] - Weak energy prices have significantly impacted both headline CPI and PPI over the past three months, while core prices remain resilient due to targeted policies [6] Summary by Sections Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, with food prices down by 0.4% and non-food prices stable at 0.0% [5] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was at 0.6%, reflecting a slight increase from previous months [5] Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI year-on-year was reported at -3.3%, with notable declines in producer goods (-4.0%) and mining and quarrying (-11.9%) [5] - Durable goods prices turned positive month-on-month, driven by the automotive sector, although this may not fully reflect recent price cuts [3][5] Key Drivers - The resilience in core prices is attributed to targeted policies such as the consumer goods trade-in program, while a supply-demand imbalance persists [6] - The renewed competition in the automotive sector may not have been adequately captured in the current readings, indicating potential volatility in future reports [6]

2025 年 06 月 10 日 铝：横盘震荡 氧化铝：继续下行 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20025 | -45 | -45 | રેસ | -615 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20060 | - | - | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2483 | 32 | 35 | 103 | -121 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 133229 | 19493 | -37862 | -133513 | 9074 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 181672 | 214 | -13992 | -13139 | -16174 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 15 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc social inventory is accumulating, causing the price to face downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,910 yuan/ton, down 2.12%; the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,662.5 dollars/ton, down 0.95%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 242,193 lots, an increase of 68,645 lots; the LME Zinc trading volume was 10,645 lots, a decrease of 762 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 135,718 lots, an increase of 16,071 lots; the LME Zinc open interest was 217,427 lots, an increase of 464 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -35.6 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 280 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -443.38 yuan/ton, down 34.81 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 2,078 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 135,600 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME Zinc cancelled warrants were 60,875 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1]. - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 60,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the month - on - month change turned from an increase to a decrease. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. China's rare earth export volume in May increased by nearly 23% month - on - month, soybean import volume increased by 129% month - on - month, reaching a record high, and coal and oil import volumes decreased [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The demand outlook for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weakening, and they are expected to fluctuate at low levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 2,981 yuan/ton and 3,095 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of -1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) and -2 yuan/ton (-0.06%). The trading volumes were 1,433,362 lots and 512,180 lots, and the open interests were 2,196,722 lots and 1,585,218 lots, with changes of -19,727 lots and +2,740 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Tianjin remained stable, and the price in Guangzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained at 2,900 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 129 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2510 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton. The spreads RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, and HC2601 - RB2601 all decreased, while the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to -3 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Economic Data**: In May, the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. The national consumer price decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The average national consumer price from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Steel Trade Data**: In May 2025, China exported 1057.8 million tons of steel, a 1.1% increase from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 4846.9 million tons, an 8.9% increase year - on - year. In May, China imported 48.1 million tons of steel, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month. From January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 255.3 million tons, a 16.1% decrease year - on - year [3]. - **Steel Production Data**: In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2300 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 209.1 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month), 2104 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 191.3 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month), and 2394 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 217.7 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output month - on - month) [3]. - **Weekly Data**: According to the weekly data on June 5, rebar production decreased by 7.05 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.79 million tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.65 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.01 million tons, and the total apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.62 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4].

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook with May CPI slightly above consensus expectations while PPI fell short, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by energy prices [3][8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in high-end equipment manufacturing prices, contrasting with the weakness in energy and raw material prices [3][11] Economic Overview - In May, the CPI experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the CPI decline [9][10] - The core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%, indicating resilience in the service sector despite overall weak domestic demand [8][9] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%, reflecting international input factors and domestic price declines [10][11] Market Performance - The report lists key stocks to watch, including SF Holding (顺丰控股), Anji Technology (安集科技), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [2] - The performance of various industry indices shows pharmaceuticals leading with a 2.30% increase, while food and beverage sectors experienced a decline of 0.43% [5] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the recovery in certain sectors, particularly high-end manufacturing, which is seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - The food and beverage sector's performance is noted as weaker, with a decline in prices, contrasting with the resilience observed in the pharmaceutical sector [5][11]