热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 中粮期货研究中心 摘要 本次中央经济工作会议，出现了五个"必须"，存量与增量集成效应，跨周期调节，投资止跌回稳等新的 内容。财政积极中相对去年略微向稳健倾斜，货币维持宽松，降准降息再度被明确提及。深化改革的重 要性有所抬升，但取得"十五五"开门红同样重要。所以三驾马车中刺激内需作为首要任务，投资与出口 不能构成拖累。地产相关的重点领域，可能以防风险的防御为主。经历了今年商品实际运行状态，"物 价合理回升"并不一定指向境内供需定价的商品价格需要大幅上涨。这类商品价格能否结束承压转向牛 市上涨，需要密切关注财政对消费的提振力度，以及居民收入的改善。 一、五个"必须" "必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须 坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。" 五个必须，头位对应扩大内需与寻找科技破局带来新的增长曲线。后四位更多侧重于稳增长与深化改革 之间的平衡。"苦练内功"，笔者认为是这一段比较精炼的总结。 | 会议年份 来年赤字率 | | 财政基调 | 实际运行 | | --- ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策更细化，方向更聚焦——学习中央经 济工作会议精神 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 服务消费提振核心 CPI：2025 年 11 月通胀 | 2025-12-11 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 淡 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.41%，报收 64.12 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.15%，报收 13780 现货价格指数 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 5219 手至 47.33 万手，棉花 3128B | | | | 14590 元/吨，较前一日上涨 20 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期 | | | | 降息 25BP，但点阵图显示票委们对后续降息路径有一定分歧，美元指数反应为震 | | | | 荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价维持震荡走势。 | | | 棉花 | 中央经济工作会议将于近日召开，持续关注。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公 | 震荡 | | | 布工商业库存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数 | | | | 据来看，11 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展 | | | | 望未来，扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 1.79 万亿元，较上日成交额缩量 1260 亿 元。政策面指出 2026 年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放出积极信号。 政策利好预期逐渐发酵，市场风险偏好回升，不过仍需等待后续中央经济工作会议出台更多政策细 节。短期内由于宏观经济数据仍具有较强韧性，政治局会议对总量政策的表述未超预期，股指短线仍 存震荡整固的需求，目前仍位于震荡区间以内。总的来说，政策利好预期逐渐发酵，短期内股指震荡 偏强为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

中央经济工作会议即将召开。参考历史经验，历年中央经济工作会议所提及的重点领域大多对次年市场主线有所指引。回顾2012年以来历次中央 经济工作会议，不仅其整体定调会对经济预期和风险偏好有重要影响，且强调的重点领域大多都会反映在次年的市场主线上，典型如13-15年 的"调结构"、"大众创业、万众创新"，16-17年的"供给侧改革"，以及20-21年的"自主可控"、"双碳"。 去年中央经济工作会议中重点强调的"新质生产力&反内卷"，也成为今年A股两条最重要的主线。 本文来源：尧望后势。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 | 会议年份 | 重点提及领域政策原文 | 关键词 | | | 次年涨跌幅前五的一级行业 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 加快调整产业结构,提高产业整体素质。实现尊重经济规律、有质量、有效益、可持续的发展 | 调结构、科技创新、 | 传媒 | 计算机 | 环保 | 电子 | 家用电器 | | 2012 | 关键是深化产业结构战略性调整。注重发挥企业家才能,加快科技创 ...

摩根士丹利 2025 年 12 月 7 日中国宏观展望报告《What to Expect from the CEWC?》，以下为关键信息。 会议定位与政策基调 中央经济工作会议（CEWC）与即将召开的 Politburo 会议，被视作 2026 年宏观政策的"定调窗口"。报告预计高层将延续"稳中求进"的总基调，把 GDP 目标 继续锚定在"5% 左右"，以稳定市场预期，并为"十五五"规划开局营造信心。 财政立场：总量克制、节奏前置 2026 年官方预算赤字率或维持在4%（与2025年持平），但摩根士丹利预计年中会追加约 0.5 个百分点的 GDP 作为"补充包"。资金将优先用于地方债务置换 （2 万亿元额度）和基建前置，形成"前置发力、全年平滑"的节奏，而非大规模刺激。 货币立场：象征性宽松 + 准财政工具 政策利率仍有 10–20 个基点下调空间，存款准备金率或再降 25–50 个基点，但更多是"信号意义"。央行将更依赖 PSL、再贷款等准财政工具，精准滴灌基 建、地产"白名单"和高科技产业链，避免"大水漫灌"。 消费与服务：从"配角"到"就业稳定器" 政策重心仍偏向科技和供给端，但对服务业（教培、文旅、养 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The latest US ADP data showed positive signals in the labor market. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path and liquidity replenishment are in focus. Before the Fed's meeting, the market may be volatile, and investors should watch LME's performance around the rate - cut [1]. - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The supply of alumina remains high, and inventory is increasing. Although aluminum prices followed copper and reached new highs, the follow - up strength is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain has some support, but the upside is limited. The new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces pressure on the finished - product side. Nickel may oscillate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Macro: US ADP data showed an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs in four weeks ending November 22, ending job losses. The Fed's potential rate - cut space exists but may change with inflation. Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference is under attention [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons; COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons to 29,531 tons; BC copper remained at 4,929 tons [1]. Aluminum - Futures: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,503 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with an increase of 4,647 lots in positions to 287,000 lots. AL2601 closed at 21,835 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, with a decrease of 5,836 lots in positions to 189,900 lots. AD2601 closed at 20,870 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with an increase of 57 lots in positions to 17,376 lots [1]. - Spot: SMM alumina price dropped to 2,805 yuan/ton. Aluminum ingot spot discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod processing fees varied in different regions, and some aluminum - related products' processing fees changed [1][2]. - Supply: After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and Australian mines accelerated shipments. Some mines with revoked rights also resumed production, leading to an increase in ore supply [2]. Nickel - Futures: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.91% to $14,750/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.18% to 116,360 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 252,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons to 34,361 tons [2]. - Market: Indonesia is strengthening mining regulation. Nickel - iron prices are rising, and the new - energy industry chain has raw - material support but faces finished - product pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market: On December 9, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 92,165 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan from the previous day. The flat - copper premium dropped by 20 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 600 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 752 yuan [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 164,550 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 9,025 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 2,410 tons, and the domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. Lead - Market: On December 9, 2025, the average price of 1 lead was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. Some lead - related prices and premiums changed slightly [3]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,825 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 100 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,064 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market: On December 9, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased by 40 yuan. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained - 100 yuan, and the spot premium remained - 90 yuan. Some raw - material prices remained stable, and some downstream processing fees changed [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 525,800 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 127 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 8,353 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained at 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market: On December 9, 2025, the prices of some nickel - related products changed. For example, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 75 yuan, and the premium of 1 imported nickel over Wuxi increased by 450 yuan [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged at 253,344 tons. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 139 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 1,726 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed slightly [4]. Zinc - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.1%. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 60 yuan. The domestic and imported zinc premium averages increased by 10 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 57,750 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 2,330 tons, and LME increased by 2,475 tons [6]. Tin - Market: On December 9, 2025, the主力 settlement price decreased by 0.3%. The SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,800 yuan [6]. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 506 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 3,075 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 29 tons, and LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot premiums, SHFE near - far - month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, showing their historical data trends [7][8][12][21][27][33][40]

软商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.3%，报收 63.87 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.04%，报收 13740 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11985 手至 47.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | 震荡 | | | 14570 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，美联储 12 月议息会议临近， | | | | 降息 25bp 几成定局，关注官员讲话对后续降息路径的指引。国内市场方面，近期 | | | | 郑棉期价维持震荡走势。中共中央政治局于 12 月 8 日召开会议，后续还有中央经 | | | | 济工作会议，持续关注相关表述。基本面来看，从中国棉花信息网公布工商业库 | | | | 存数据反推，11 月棉花月度消费量仍保持相对高位，但是从半月度数据来看，11 | | | | 月下半月棉花消费量低于上半月棉花消费量，棉花上行驱动减弱。展望未来，当 | | | | 前扰动因素较多，多空因素交织，短期以震荡格局对待。随着时间的推移，棉花 | | | | 供需格局或有转 ...

Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations and weakened overnight, with LME copper inventory increasing by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons and COMEX copper warehouse receipts rising by 3,208 tons to 401,929 tons [2][8] - The U.S. ADP report indicated an average of 4,750 new jobs added per week in the private sector, ending a four-week job loss streak, signaling positive labor market trends [2][8] - The market is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with a consensus forming around a potential rate cut in December, while future rate paths and liquidity measures are under scrutiny [2][8] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.91% to $14,750 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.18% to 116,360 yuan per ton, with LME inventory decreasing by 816 tons to 252,528 tons [3][9] - The Indonesian government is intensifying regulatory measures in the mining sector, imposing heavy fines on companies operating illegally beyond forest permits [3][9] - Nickel prices in the nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain are showing upward pressure, but price ceilings remain limited due to marginal inventory reductions [3][9] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices weakened, with AO2601 settling at 2,503 yuan per ton, down 2.15%, while SHFE aluminum also saw a decline to 21,835 yuan per ton, down 0.7% [4][11] - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal pressures with inventory levels rising, and the supply of alumina remains high, contributing to downward price pressures [4][11] - The aluminum price is following a copper-aluminum ratio correction logic, with increasing concerns about downstream high-price stocking sentiment [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices weakened, with the main contract settling at 8,340 yuan per ton, down 3.47%, while polysilicon prices showed strength, rising by 3.45% to 55,610 yuan per ton [5][11] - The photovoltaic supply chain is facing high inventory levels and production cuts, with price reduction sentiments not spreading upward [5][11] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to alleviate warehouse pressure, with slow growth in near-month warehouse receipts providing some support [5][11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 1.23% to 92,800 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate remaining at 92,750 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly lithium production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [6][12] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening, leading to a slight increase in total inventory days to 27 days [6][12]