在港股物业板块估值仍处历史低位的背景下，部分物业公司年内加大了回购力度。数据显示，截至2026 年2月9日，合计6家港股上市物业公司年内进行了回购，回购金额合计达到2.17亿港元，较去年同期增 长40.34%，并且已经达到去年全年港股物业公司回购金额（7.42亿港元）的约三成。 从公司层面来看，回购行为主要由具备一定规模和现金流基础的物业公司实施。今年以来，碧桂园服务 回购2241.50万股，回购金额达到1.40亿港元；万物云、金科服务、绿城服务回购金额分别达到2402.92 万港元、2309.34万港元、1444.74万港元。融创服务和永升服务也进行了不同程度的回购。 "在经历2021年至2024年行业深度调整后，投资者对物业股关联地产风险仍存担忧。此时龙头企业主动 回购，不仅彰显管理层对未来经营的信心，也有助于打破'流动性折价'的恶性循环，修复板块估值中 枢。"盘古智库（北京）信息咨询有限公司高级研究员江瀚在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，在风 险逐步出清、独立运营能力获得市场重新认可的背景下，物业公司通过真金白银回购，既是对自身内在 价值被低估的明确表态，也向投资者传递现金流稳健、财务健康的积极信号。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The building materials sector is expected to experience fundamental improvement and valuation recovery due to dual drivers of policy support and real estate recovery, with a strategic window opening in 2025 [1] Policy Support - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes a record high special bond allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan, with 800 billion yuan directed towards "two major" construction and urban renewal projects, providing certainty for infrastructure demand [2] - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with anticipated cumulative reductions in reserve requirement ratios of 150-250 basis points and interest rates by 40-60 basis points, benefiting infrastructure investment and real estate construction recovery [2] - Real estate policies aim for stabilization, with measures such as optimizing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, leading to signs of price recovery in first-tier cities; from January to May 2025, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area narrowed to 2.9%, a significant improvement compared to 2024 [2] Market Trends - Starting in 2025, the sales area and prices of commercial housing are expected to rebound, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable narrowing of overall declines [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Building Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes improving profitability and prohibits new cement clinker and flat glass capacity, promoting capacity replacement and staggered production to optimize the supply structure [5] - The real estate market in first-tier cities is projected to maintain high transaction levels post-2026, with second-tier cities like Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, and Tianjin also showing positive performance [5] Demand Dynamics - The policy to ensure housing delivery is expected to reduce the year-on-year decline in housing completion area to around 15% in the first half of 2025, directly stimulating demand for basic building materials like cement and glass [6] - The total urban housing stock in China is 37.3 billion square meters, with increasing renovation and upgrading needs driven by aging properties, leading to new growth in building material consumption; green building materials revenue is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [6] Investment Opportunities - The building materials sector has faced five years of decline, but positive signals are emerging, suggesting a potential recovery in the sector [8] - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All Share Building Materials Index, covering leading companies across the entire industry chain, providing an efficient tool for investors to gain exposure to the building materials sector [8] - The current environment favors cyclical sectors, with the building materials industry presenting investment value due to demand recovery, supply optimization, and profitability restoration, alongside low valuations and high dividends [10]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term competitive landscape of the industry is stable, and the brand and manufacturing advantages of the company are significant, which is expected to maintain its market share and support steady growth in the long term [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - The company is gradually expanding its production capacity and service network, which is expected to enhance its delivery capabilities and product matrix, leading to accelerated performance [1]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at $160 million, $190 million, and $240 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18.4, 15.3, and 12.4 [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company launched the VisionJet G3, which features significant upgrades in consumer orientation, including a fully upgraded avionics system and enhanced cabin comfort [2]. - The target customer base is high-net-worth individuals rather than professional pilots, focusing on smart and safe performance upgrades to address pain points during flights [2]. - The delivery structure is expected to improve with the expansion of production capacity and the introduction of new products, leading to better order fulfillment and higher profitability [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to release significant cyclical pressure in 2025, yet it will still achieve profitability. If a market recovery occurs, the company's performance may exhibit substantial elasticity [2][6]. - The company's sales scale is projected to rise to the fourth position in the industry, with a relatively positive land acquisition intensity. The issuance of preferred shares is progressing smoothly, and the balance sheet is continuously optimizing, which is expected to maintain the company's competitive edge in the industry [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Outlook - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.005 to 1.254 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 69% to 75%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 154 to 231 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 91% to 94% [6]. Sales and Market Position - In 2025, the company is projected to achieve sales of 196 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%, while its ranking improves to fourth in the industry. The average sales price is expected to increase by 16.8% to 27,371 yuan per square meter [6]. - The land acquisition amount is anticipated to reach 93.8 billion yuan, an increase of 92.8%, with an average acquisition price of 21,293 yuan per square meter, down 1.5%. The land acquisition intensity is expected to rise to 48%, compared to 22% the previous year, with 89% of the land acquisition amount concentrated in core first- and second-tier cities [6]. Financial Health - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's asset-liability ratio, excluding pre-receivables, stands at 61.0%, with a net debt ratio of 55.3%. The cash-to-short-term debt ratio exceeds 1, and short-term debt accounts for 22.1%, indicating a relatively low leverage level and a high safety margin in financial metrics [6]. - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 is 2.84%, a decrease of 15 basis points from the end of 2024, maintaining the lowest level in the industry [6]. Capital Structure Optimization - The company plans to issue up to 78.405 billion yuan in preferred shares, with the net proceeds intended for the development of 11 real estate projects in cities like Beijing and Shanghai. This issuance is progressing smoothly and is expected to further optimize the company's balance sheet [6].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities plans to issue HKD 10 billion convertible bonds, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, reflecting investor concerns over equity dilution and market sentiment [1][3][6] Group 1: Impact of Convertible Bond Issuance - The issuance of HKD 10 billion convertible bonds by Huatai Securities is expected to dilute existing shareholders' equity, with A-shareholders' ownership dropping from 80.96% to 76.65% if fully converted [7][8] - The new H-shares will increase the total H-share float by 29.53%, which is significantly higher than the industry norm, raising concerns about earnings per share dilution and control structure changes [6][7] - The market's negative reaction is exacerbated by weak liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, leading to increased selling pressure [6][7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Reactions - Investors are advised to avoid making decisions based solely on emotions, as the market's response to convertible bond issuance is influenced by both equity dilution expectations and broader market dynamics [2][15] - The issuance is perceived as a negative signal, indicating potential cash flow concerns or pessimism about future financial performance, which further heightens investor anxiety [7][15] - Historical context shows that similar convertible bond issuances by other securities firms, such as GF Securities, have also led to stock price declines, indicating a pattern in market reactions [9] Group 3: Long-term Perspectives and Strategies - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term impact of the capital raised through convertible bonds will depend on the efficiency of capital utilization and the success of international business expansion [11][12] - If Huatai Securities can effectively demonstrate growth in overseas operations and high return on equity (ROE) investments, it may lead to a re-evaluation of its long-term value and stock price recovery [12][14] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach, focusing on companies with clear capital allocation and high efficiency, rather than reacting impulsively to short-term market fluctuations [14][15]

Group 1 - The banking sector (core stocks) is experiencing an upward trend, with a 1.07% increase, driven by active performances from stocks like Qilu Bank and Xiamen Bank, which rose over 3% [1] - The current market sentiment is based on multiple improvements in the fundamentals of banking core stocks, including strong performance in annual credit issuance and a stabilizing net interest margin, enhancing the certainty of earnings growth [2][3] - The annual marketing season for banks is showing better-than-expected credit issuance compared to the same period in 2025, with many small and medium-sized banks receiving approval for capital increases, which is expected to improve the overall capital structure of the banking industry [3] Group 2 - State-owned banks, as the main force in credit issuance, are expanding their corporate credit lending during the marketing period, directly benefiting from the release of credit demand in the real economy, leading to strong earnings growth certainty [4] - Joint-stock banks are expected to see effective alleviation of profit pressure as net interest margins stabilize, with continued growth in wealth management and other intermediary businesses, indicating significant valuation recovery potential [4] - Rural financial institutions are focusing on the county-level real economy, with significant business growth during seasonal credit demand periods, and their capital strength is expected to improve through capital optimization, enhancing their ability to support rural development [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - PP valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure [1] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: PP2605 had a closing price of 6801 with a daily increase of 1.05%, trading volume of 458,481 and an increase in open interest of 11,151 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The 05 - contract basis was -151 (compared to -150 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 (compared to -27 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6,580 yuan/ton, 6,650 yuan/ton, and 6,770 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated strongly, upstream pre - sale pressure was not significant, the basis was weakly stable, and the trading atmosphere was average [1] - Downstream demand at the end of the year was unlikely to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying was questionable, and warehouse receipts remained at a high level [1] - The PP US - dollar market price was weakening, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering prices to China was low, and export trading was difficult to improve due to the strengthening exchange rate and rising domestic market [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices rebounded and stabilized, and there was a valuation differentiation within olefins, with the internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE higher than those of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There was no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensified [2] - **Demand Side**: Downstream new orders followed up with rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year was limited. PDH profit at the cost side remained at a low level, with multiple PDH units in South China having maintenance expectations and one PP unit in Northern Jiangsu planning to restart. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units under deep PDH profit losses [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [3]

Market Overview - On February 4, gold prices rose over 2%, nearing $5100 per ounce, while silver prices increased by over 5%, surpassing $90 per ounce[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, closing above 4100 points, with A-share trading volume maintaining a high level of CNY 2.5 trillion[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index saw a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84%[1] Trading Strategies - High-position speculative trading focuses on high-growth sectors like computing hardware, which are already at high levels but supported by the AI industry's strong performance[3] - Valuation recovery trading seeks to identify low-position sectors such as liquor, real estate, and coal, attracting trend-following funds for potential rebounds[3] - Theme-driven trading centers on sectors like AI applications and cloud computing, which are expected to attract sustained funding due to their long-term growth potential[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market remains quiet, with limited trading activity in long-term bonds, and slight upward movement in long-term interest rates[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net withdrawal of CNY 302.5 billion, maintaining a neutral liquidity stance[5] - Recent data indicates a shift in fund preferences, with mixed results in bond fund subscriptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in the bond market[7] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market shows a significant recovery in risk appetite, with precious metals leading the gains; silver surged by 11.22% and gold by 7.29%[8] - The market experienced a net inflow of CNY 95 billion into commodities, with precious metals attracting the most interest, totaling CNY 144 billion[9] - Coal prices rebounded due to sentiment driven by Indonesia's production cuts, although the fundamental supply-demand balance remains weak[10]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 大类资产月度策略（2026.2） 乍暖还寒试韧性，估值修复入深水 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：双宽格局持续 信用方面，12 月我国新增社融 22075 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（18153 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 9100 亿元,高于万得一致调查值（6794 亿元）。 广义货币条件指数边际改善，新增社融数据超预期，抵消高基数引发的信用 脉冲回落，金融对实体支撑坚实。当前格局延续"宽货币+宽信用"的双宽 组合，资金面趋紧风险较低，金融条件对宏观与资产表现形成托底。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 指数开门红，估值修复渐入深水区。1 月 A 股延续强势，中证 500 以 12.12% 领跑，新开户数近 500 万反映资产迁移热度。然而 2 月初受沃什"降息+缩 表"鹰派主张冲击，分母端压力陡增，贵金属剧烈回调，市场流动性边际收 缩。尽管短期拖累指数，但释放流动性有利于缓解对其它板块的吸血效应， 降低长线泡沫破裂风险。当前市场对科创及互联网板块的高资本开支容忍度 降至冰点，业绩验证阈值抬高。1 月 PMI 处于荣枯线下，经济基本面尚不支 持全面牛，市场步入去杠杆与去伪 ...

Market Performance - In January 2026, the A-share market exhibited a strong "opening red" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.76%, the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Index up by 5.03% by the end of January [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, while cyclical and high-elasticity sectors such as media, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals all saw gains exceeding 12% [2] - Technology and manufacturing sectors, including electronics, computers, and communications, also performed strongly [2] Mixed Public Fund Performance - As of January 29, 2026, there were a total of 128 mixed public funds with investment periods of 3 to 6 months, with 28 funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 5% over the past six months [3] - Nearly 70% of the products had a net value growth rate concentrated in the 1% to 5% range [3] - Notable institutions included Xingyin Wealth Management with 3 products listed, Ningyin Wealth Management with 2, and several others with 1 product each [3] Product Analysis - The "Rongzhu Mixed Anti-Inflation Strategy Semi-Annual Holding Period Wealth Management Product A" from Minsheng Wealth Management topped the list with a 6-month net value growth rate of 8.20% [4] - The product primarily invests in funds and bonds, with holdings of 54.28% in funds and 15.33% in bonds as of the end of Q4 2025 [4] - The top ten assets include stock ETF funds, bond funds, and bank preferred shares, with allocations to "E Fund Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF Link C" and "Huaan Gold ETF Link C" at 3.97% and 2.26%, respectively [4] - Despite low holding ratios, both ETFs experienced strong growth of 39.57% and 42.07% over the past six months, contributing to recent returns [4] - The product manager anticipates that the domestic capital market has completed its first round of valuation repair, with value stocks still at the bottom of the valuation range [4] - The technology sector's improving conditions are expected to further elevate market valuation bottoms, with a potential phase of rebound for blue-chip and financial stocks, excluding banks, anticipated in the first quarter [4]