（来源：市场星报） 上周，A股先跌两天、后涨三天，沪指三连阳盘中重回3900点，周微涨0.03%，报收3890.45点；深证成 指周下跌0.89%，报收13140.21点；创业板指周下跌2.26%，报收3122.24点。以指数的日线级别审视， 市场探底回升，即将或已经回到"选择方向"的时刻。指数上方不远处是近期压力位，而下方又是近期两 度验证的支撑位。 上周A股走出"先抑后扬"行情，上证最终收于3890.45点，创业板与科创板也集体回暖。表面看是普涨， 实则暗流涌动：成交量呈现W型波动，资金在科技与消费间反复切换。面对本周走势，机构观点分歧严 重，这背后真正值得警惕的不是预测本身，而是市场对持续性动能的集体怀疑。 值得注意的是，当前市场结构性特征愈发明显。在整体调整格局未改的背景下，局部性机会依然存在， 消费板块的持续走强便是政策利好驱动下的结构性行情体现，而板块内部呈现的高低切走势，也反映出 资金在不确定性中寻求避险的心态。但这类结构性反弹往往持续性有限，且容易受市场情绪和资金流向 影响出现反复，难以带动指数走出反转行情。 真正的答案，不在多空之间，而在变局之中。A股不会简单选择方向，而将经历一次压力测试： ...

非银的弹性有望逐步增加 | 李畅 | 策略分析师 | | --- | --- | | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 | 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [非银的弹性有望逐步增加 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 核心结论：本周保险板块表现较强，直接影响因素是政策和风格。我们 认为金融板块的行情可能从银行轮动到非银。保险估值性价比更好，一 旦出现政策催化，率先表现出弹性。后续如果指数突破，券商也会有表 现。2021-2023 年非银 PB 下降速度远快于 ROE 下降速度，这一点和银行 较为类似，因此理论上也存在较大的估值修复空间。动态来看，由于非 银当前估值水平仍在长期趋势以下偏低位置。而非 ...

江勇表示，自己正以"极致分散+安全边际"策略应对市场潜在波动，通过量化模型辅助挖掘低估值、盈 利确定性标的，在严控回撤前提下把握慢牛机遇。 始终遵循"绝对收益"理念 在当前低利率市场环境下，固定收益类资产的回报走低，加之权益市场逐步回暖，"固收+"产品性价比 凸显，日益受到投资者关注。 江勇早年在期货公司做研究员，后来加入海富通基金，现任混合资产投资部总经理、基金经理。他擅长 资产配置，拥有指数增强、被动指数、二级债基、偏债混合等多元产品管理经验。这些经验使得他对 于"固收+"类产品有一套成熟的、系统化的资产配置方法论。 海富通基金/供图 "当前A股或正步入慢牛格局，其核心驱动力来自估值修复与盈利改善的双重共振。"海富通基金混合资 产投资部总经理江勇在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，当前银行股超4%的股息率已显著高于十年期国 债收益，周期行业盈利触底回升预期升温，叠加市场情绪回暖，权益资产配置性价比凸显。 以他管理时间较长的海富通欣睿混合A为例，该基金行业和个股高度分散。自2021年2月9日基金成立以 来，半年报和年报披露的全部持仓股票，数量均超过150只，多数时候在250只左右，前十大重仓股票市 值合计占股票投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - The number of transformation companies in the light industry has significantly increased this year, particularly in traditional sectors such as home furnishings and packaging. If industry sentiment improves, market share is expected to accelerate towards leading companies [2][6] - Minhua Holdings announced a plan to acquire a U.S. furniture manufacturer for $32 million, with the current stock price corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 8x for the fiscal year 2026, indicating a potential valuation recovery opportunity [2][6] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry sector outperformed the market with an index increase of 1.80% compared to a 0.28% decline in the CSI 300 index from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [16] - Sub-sectors such as packaging (+1.53%), home goods (+1.96%), and entertainment products (+2.51%) also showed positive performance [16] 2. Home Furnishings - In November, the home furnishings sector faced continued pressure, with retail sales of furniture down 3.8% year-on-year and a significant decline in residential construction area by 28% [31][38] - The number of transformation companies in the home furnishings sector has increased, indicating a potential market share consolidation towards leading firms if the industry sentiment improves [2][31] 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 19, 2025, prices for various paper products showed a decline, with boxboard prices down by 82.4 yuan/ton and corrugated paper prices down by 162.5 yuan/ton [48] - The report indicates a decrease in waste paper prices, attributed to insufficient support from domestic waste and weakened demand [54] 4. Consumer Products - The report highlights the strategic initiatives of Baiya Co., which aims to enhance its market presence through brand empowerment and product innovation, targeting a top position in the offline market by 2026 [10] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the personal care and stationery sectors, such as Kangnai Optical and Morning Glory [10] 5. New Tobacco Products - The report notes increased regulatory scrutiny on electronic cigarettes, which may enhance the competitive advantage of compliant companies in the long term [10] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their diverse product lines [10] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with an index increase of 2.18% during the same period [24] - Companies such as Huamao Co. and Xinyi Technology showed strong stock performance, indicating positive market sentiment [29]

其中，生物医药板块尤其是以18A章上市的未盈利生物科技企业，成为牛股扎堆之地。"罕见病第一 股"北海康成涨幅超10倍，三叶草生物、和铂医药、加科思等今年以来涨幅达到6倍以上。 作为港股今年涨幅第一的股票，粤港湾控股今年加速布局AI赛道，近日其子公司深圳天顿数据科技有 限公司与华工科技签订协议，致力于在新型AI算力和网络基础设施领域建立全面、深入的战略合作伙 伴关系。此外，消费板块也诞生了多只高弹性标的，受益于黄金一路走高，珠峰黄金今年累计涨幅接近 12倍。 "红底股"阵营扩容 除十倍股外，港股"红底股"阵营的持续扩容与股价翻倍，也成为市场强势的重要体现。"红底股"特指港 股市场中股价突破100港元的高价股，其数量增长与股价表现，反映了市场热度。 2025年港股市场强势回暖，估值修复与结构重塑共振催生大量投资机会，十倍股集中涌现、"红底股"阵 营持续扩容，市场赚钱效应显著。 2025年十倍股扎堆涌现 2025年港股估值洼地效应凸显，叠加行业景气度提升与资金面改善，催生了一批涨幅超10倍的牛股，成 为市场回暖的核心标志。 Wind的统计显示，今年以来，总共有380只港股股价翻番，其中13只股价涨幅超过10倍。粤港 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector is under pressure, with social retail sales growth slowing down and valuations in the food and beverage sector at a low point [2][3][10]. Group 1: Social Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index - Social retail sales growth has declined, with total retail sales in October 2025 increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, while the growth rates for dining and commodity retail sales were 1.1% and 4.0% respectively [3][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October 2025, following a decline in food prices, with food CPI down 2.9% year-on-year [3][10]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector is experiencing significant pressure, with the overall profit of the liquor sector down 23.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, largely due to strict regulations impacting the industry [12]. - The beverage segment shows strong growth from leading companies, with soft drink revenue reaching 106.2 billion yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year, while the dairy sector faced challenges with a slight decline in revenue [13][14]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Confidence - The online retail channel is growing faster than offline, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in online sales as of October 2025, driven by food categories [16]. - Consumer confidence is gradually improving, with the consumer confidence index rising from 87.5 in January to 89.4 in October 2025, contributing significantly to GDP growth [18][21]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low valuation level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 21.4 times, placing it in the 10.9% percentile of the last decade [10][11]. - The sector's dividend rate has slightly decreased but still has room for improvement, with the overall dividend rate fluctuating between 60% and 73% from 2019 to 2023 [23].

12月19日，创业板50ETF国泰（159375）涨超1.1%，政策调整或引市场热点轮动。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从创业板 市场中筛选流动性良好、市值规模突出的50只证券作为成分股，重点覆盖电力设备及新能源、医药等战 略性新兴产业，集中反映创业板市场内具备高成长性与科技创新属性的龙头企业整体表现。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 中泰证券指出，中央经济工作会议在内需、消费、"反内卷"方面政策有结构性调整，可能带来市场热点 轮动。创新药与医疗器械在集采及老龄化支持等政策变化下或有估值修复表现，会议明确强调"优化药 品集中采购"，提升有知识产权及专利储备的医药企业利润空间。文旅、体育等服务消费将迎来消费"国 补"转向利好， ...

财通证券发布研报称，短期看，基本面进一步下行带来的政策宽松预期有望推动板块估值修复，长期需 关注房企在新模式下的发展机遇。建议短期关注政策宽松带来的估值修复机会，中长期聚焦具备核心城 市资源和不动产运营能力的龙头企业。 智通财经APP获悉，内房股今日普涨，截至发稿，保利置业集团(00119)涨6.49%，报1.97港元；中国金 茂(00817)涨3.31%，报1.25港元；新城发展(01030)涨2.44%，报2.1港元；中国奥园(03883)涨2.38%，报 0.086港元。 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | (点) | 1日 | 5 目 | 1月 | | 上证指数 | 3870 | 1.19 | -2.56 | -0.77 | | | | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | I | | | 2 . . | A | 1 | | | | | 14/ | | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 18 日 中国铁建 (01186) 深度: 报表优化, 分红提升, 估值修复 亮点一：2026 年行业投资维稳，总量有支撑。年初至今固定资产投资增速 放缓,基建、制造业、地产均呈现压力,展望 2026 年,随着地方政府化债 的有序推进，叠加中央"两重"项目实施，2026年投资有望维稳。 亮点二：公司新签订单边际改善，结构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳 键增长。公司 2021-2024、2025Q1-3 累计新签合同额分别同比 +10.39%/+15.09%/+1.51%/-7.80%/+3.08%，2025 年前三季度新签订 单边际改善。 亮点三：资产负债表持续 ...

那么，是谁导演了这场逆转？在我看来，这并非单一力量所为，而是市场内在动能与外部催化剂共振的 结果。一方面，以能源金属和CPO为代表的板块，本身已经调整了一段时间，技术上存在反弹需求，这 是"内因"；另一方面，可能有一些积极的宏观信号或产业消息（比如关于AI算力投入、新能源需求预期 的边际变化）在午后被市场捕捉并放大，点燃了做多情绪，这是"外因"。两者结合，最终促成了这场酣 畅淋漓的反攻。 我的核心观点是：今天的放量普涨，很可能标志着市场短期调整压力的充分释放和情绪的低点修复。 它最大的意义，不在于一天涨了多少，而在于重新凝聚了场内外的信心，为后续行情的发展打开了更积 极的空间。创业板指的强势领涨，尤其对提振成长股的风险偏好至关重要。 基于此，我给大家的明日操作策略，可以围绕 "积极但不冒进，聚焦主线顺势而为" 来展开。 朋友们，收盘了！今天这行情，上午和下午简直是两副面孔。如果说上午的市场还在小心翼翼地试探水 温，那么午后创业板指那根"旱地拔葱"般的直线拉升，就是资金用真金白银投出的最直白一票。3.39% 的涨幅，超过3600只个股上涨，再配上明显放大的成交量，这一系列组合拳，让市场情绪从早盘的分 化，直接切 ...