双焦：盘面底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月19日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 注意到近期市场"反内卷"情绪有所上升，前期跌幅较大的商品近日均出现了反弹，焦煤本身波动较大，反弹亦较为明显。 基本面上，近日山西焦煤竞拍流拍率降低，成交情况有所好转，部分煤种出现企稳反弹迹象，但还没形成普涨，仍需观察 下游采购力度。蒙煤方面，当前蒙煤通关车持续处于高位，库存上升，同时给国内煤也带来较大压力。不过考虑到后期焦 钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，后期焦煤供需可能略有改善。 预计近期焦煤波动仍较大，建议观望，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。后期主要关注煤矿年底减产力度、下游对原料冬储进度、 反内卷交易是否持续等因素。 单边：关注交易逻辑的变化，波动仍较大，建议观望为主，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。 套利：观望。 期 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 热轧卷板市场周报 炉料走高提供支撑 热卷期价止跌反弹 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3269（+37），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3290（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。291.91（-16.8），（同比-20.81）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需298.28（-13.69），（同比-11.06）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库+社库双降。总库存390.72（-6.37），（同比+81.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, equity index futures declined while TL rose; metals and energy sectors advanced, with platinum, palladium, coking coal and coke leading the gains [12][14]. - The rally of coking coal and coke may be a valuation recovery driven by fund flows amid news catalysts, following an oversold period. With the intensification of winter stockpiling, their fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, but potential pressure from high coking coal imports and unstable thermal coal prices should be noted [18][25]. - For iron ore, overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, demand weakened, and port stocks edged up while steel mill stocks fell, with weak restocking willingness [34][35]. - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive investigations against Chinese enterprises and indicates that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case [39][40]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange was approved as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promote the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IC dropped by 0.7%, IM dropped by 0.3%, TL rose by 0.2% [12]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were palladium (up 7.0% with a 39.8% month - on - month surge in open interest), coking coal (up 6.1% with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and coke (up 5.4% with a 23.4% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.1% with a 1.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), poly - silicon (down 2.6% with an 8.9% month - on - month slide in open interest), and No.2 soybean (down 1.4% with a 35.9% month - on - month shrinkage in open interest) [13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On December 18th, coking coal rose by 6.1% to 1,126.5 yuan/tonne; coke climbed by 5.4% to 1,603.5 yuan/tonne. The rally may be due to news catalysts and fund flows after an oversold period [18]. - Two factors raised market expectations of tighter coal supply: the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" and safety interviews with major coal - producing regions. However, the short - term impact on production and supply is limited. - Winter stockpiling has started. For coking coal, some coal varieties' cost - performance has become attractive, and mid - and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. For coke, steel mills' procurement intensity has slightly increased [22][23][24]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 18, iron ore rose 1.6% to 777.5 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with Australian shipments slightly growing, Brazilian shipments increasing significantly, and non - mainstream shipments weakening. Demand weakened as iron water output dropped, and steel mills' profitability and sinter powder consumption and inventory declined. Port stocks edged up, and steel mill stocks fell with weak restocking willingness [33][34][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive launch of FSR investigations against Chinese enterprises, which are targeted and discriminatory. China urges the EU to stop the unreasonable suppression and create a fair business environment. - China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case, and China is willing to resolve differences through dialogue [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promotes the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42].

当下，螺纹钢库存结构是比较健康的，现实供需矛盾也不大。因此，本轮价格下跌过程中，期货价格的 跌幅明显大于现货。螺纹钢主力2605合约对华东现货的贴水已经扩大至196元／吨，处于近3年高位。杭 州地区螺纹钢库存已经从11月下旬的95.7万吨下降至69.7万吨。螺纹钢期货前20席位净多和净空持仓的 差值也从11月下旬的-11.16万手变为2.27万手。 明年1月，市场可能逐步关注到冬储逻辑。虽然现在市场普遍预计2026年建材需求会继续下一个台阶， 贸易商冬储意愿偏差，但是螺纹钢2605合约价格已经接近电炉钢的谷电成本（3079元／吨），且盘面贴 水已经处于高位，具备一定冬储价值。因此，我们预计仍会有贸易商通过盘面或场外累购期权的方式进 行冬储。 12月5日以来，螺纹钢价格出现快速下跌，主力2605合约价格最低下探至3031元／吨，相比月初高点下 跌150元／吨，跌幅约为4.7%。对于后期走势，我们认为，利空充分发酵之后，螺纹钢价格有望在3000 元／吨附近逐步企稳。 近期大跌原因分析 近期，螺纹钢价格大幅下跌主要是因为需求走弱和成本支撑下移。12月是传统的建材需求淡季，螺纹钢 表观消费量从11月下旬的230.79 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: Jinxin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Analysis Core View - Coking coal price increase is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment and winter storage expectations [2] Driving Factors - Since December, environmental protection warnings in the north have led to coking enterprises' production restrictions of 20% - 35% [3] - Year - end coal mine maintenance, policy support, and winter storage replenishment expectations have boosted sentiment [3] - Relevant departments have released standards for the clean and efficient use of coal [3] Supply and Demand - Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and domestic high - quality production capacity is steadily increasing, with a loose supply pattern [4] - Real estate has dragged down steel demand, and the blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills is low, making it difficult for the rigid demand for coking coal to significantly recover [4] Market Rhythm - Winter storage may bring short - term pulses but is difficult to sustain; rapid price increases may trigger an increase in imported coal, suppressing the increase [4] Operation Suggestions - In the medium and long term, gradually lay out long positions on dips; in the short term, strictly control positions [4] Key Price Levels - On December 18, the highest price of the main contract was 1,136.5 yuan; 1,200 yuan is a strong resistance level, 1,050 yuan is a short - term support level, and 1,000 yuan has cost support [3] Group 3: A - share Market Analysis Market Performance - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend. The technology sector adjusted, and the banking sector supported the market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly up, while other indices generally rose and then fell [6] Technical Analysis - The 15 - minute cycle can be regarded as a consolidation of the previous day's afternoon rally. If the consolidation ends, there may be another rally [6] Operation Suggestions - High - sell on rallies tomorrow, but do not chase the rise [6] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis Market Trend - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of upward movement [8] Operation Suggestions - Try to go long [8] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply and Demand - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak [10][11] Technical Analysis - Adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy, selling high and buying low [10] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis Market Drivers - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has decreased this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [15] Technical Analysis - In the short term, regard it as an oscillating market [14][15] Group 7: Palm Oil Market Analysis Market Situation - As the palm oil - producing areas gradually enter the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December [16] Operation Suggestions - Seize short - selling opportunities [16] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis Market Outlook - With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and the elimination of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve [19] Market Judgment - An oscillating market is expected [19]

Market Trends - On December 18, coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly, with the near-month contract JM2601 rising by 4.69%, the main contract JM2605 increasing by 6.07%, and the main coke contract J2601 up by 5.39% [2] Fundamental Data Supply Side - This week, the output of premium coal and raw coal from sample mines was 757,500 tons and 1,927,000 tons, respectively, showing a slight increase. The operating rate of premium coal mines rose by 1.31% to 86.62% [5] - The average daily output of premium coal from sample washing plants was 272,900 tons, a slight decrease of 630 tons [6] - The average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.16%, both showing a slight decline [6] Demand Side - The average daily output of molten iron from sample steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2,292,000 tons, with a slight decline in blast furnace capacity utilization [6] - The profitability of sample steel mills was reported at 35.93%, which has decreased again [6] Inventory - The inventory of premium coal at sample mines was 2,727,700 tons, showing a slight increase of 174,600 tons [6] - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants was 10,373,000 tons, with an available days inventory of 12.19 days, both showing a slight increase [6] Market Sentiment - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is attributed more to market sentiment and short-sellers taking profits rather than fundamental improvements [7] - The expectation of high-quality coking coal supply tightening is driven by the new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [8] - Despite the rebound, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to the potential for weak demand and the impact of imported coal [9][10]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 2025/12/16 -375 3947 115035 45784 -1413.46 -104.22 42.0 48.0 -9.52 166600 64400 2025/12/17 -330 4353 115035 44877 - -196.60 44.0 50.0 - 166925 64450 变化 45 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]