【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 5016 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 615894 手。呈现止跌企稳，日均线跌破 5 日均线，10 日均线支撑，30 日均线，60 日均线，但在 3100 整数关口附近企稳，最低 3112，最高 3135，收于 3124 元/吨，上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅 0.35%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3270 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 146 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 四、短期观点总结 当下螺纹供给端复产动能较强，需求端受节前冬储备货有支撑存在韧性，节后还 需要关注终端需求的恢复程度，总库和 ...

1. Report's Investment Ratings for the Industry - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are moving sideways. The fundamentals of building materials have weakened, with lackluster demand and prominent off - season characteristics. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity [1]. - Iron ore prices are moving sideways. Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and domestic arrivals have also decreased but remain at a historical high. Steel mill blast furnace hot metal production has dropped, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to potential supply shocks [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are moving sideways. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented. Steel mills have low willingness to replenish inventory. There is a game between steel and coke. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of inventory replenishment, which may support coke demand [4][5]. - Thermal coal prices are weakly operating. Terminal users are purchasing on - demand. Market sentiment is bearish. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3286 yuan/ton. In Hangzhou on Tuesday, rebar inventory was 470,000 tons, and the outbound volume was 36,000 tons. Nationwide building material transactions were 76,328 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand of building materials has weakened, with lackluster demand. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventories suppress price elasticity. Short - term market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to production cuts, winter storage, demand destocking, profits, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore prices moved sideways. Spot prices in Tangshan's imported iron ore market fell slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was average [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and domestic arrivals also dropped but were still at a historical high. Affected by safety accidents, steel mill blast furnace hot metal production continued to fall. The 242 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the daily average hot metal output of sample steel mills decreased by 210 tons month - on - month. Port inventories continued to accumulate. There are uncertainties in the long - term due to supply shocks if liquidity - locking factors are removed. Short - term attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill inventory replenishment [2]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke prices were stable with a slightly upward trend following steel. The main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1129 yuan/ton, and that of coke at 1683.5 yuan/ton. Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, and domestic coal mine production was relatively stable. Coke enterprises' procurement pace slowed down, and transactions were average. The first round of coke price increases has not been implemented [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel mill profits are under pressure, and blast furnace operating rates and hot metal production continue to decline. The recent decline in raw material prices has repaired steel profits to some extent. Steel mills are still waiting and seeing about coke price increases. There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support coke demand. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no prominent contradictions. Before the Spring Festival, the downward space of coking coal is limited, and it will continue to move sideways in the short term. Attention should be paid to coking coal supply policies, steel mill profits, coking profits, and finished product demand [5]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices in major production areas fell weakly. Terminal users such as metallurgical, chemical, and power plants purchased on - demand. Market sentiment was bearish. In the port area, coal prices were weakly operating. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the import market, transactions were sluggish, and bid prices decreased [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and production area supply is gradually recovering. In the medium to long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation with low production and inventory accumulation. The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient carbon supply and low downstream demand. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are suggested to be shorted on rebounds [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuates mainly. In the off - season, thread demand declines, production remains low, and inventory accumulates. Hot - rolled coil demand is still resilient, but de - stocking is slow. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, but blast furnace复产 slows down, and hot metal production declines. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is weakly volatile. Global shipments decline month - on - month but are stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals decrease, but port inventories continue to increase. Terminal demand improves in the off - season, and steel mill复产 is disturbed. Steel mill import ore inventories increase but are still low, and there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Coke - Coke prices rebound slightly. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreases slightly. Coke inventories increase slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high coking coal inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebound slightly. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1371 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increases significantly, and spot auction transactions improve. Terminal inventories increase significantly, and total coking coal inventories rise slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices decline in a volatile manner. Manganese ore spot prices rise due to the futures market rebound. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Iron water production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices decline in a volatile manner. Affected by relevant policies, prices are relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand decreases, and metal magnesium production increases. Silicon iron supply decreases significantly, and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]

消息面 1月21日蒙古国ETT公司炼焦煤进行线上竞拍，蒙5#原煤A13.5、V28、S1.0、G75、Mt3起拍价111.3美元/吨，挂牌数量6.4万吨全部成交，成交价 126.3美元/吨，以上价格均不含税。供货地点为中国甘其毛都口岸监管区，供货时间为付款后98天，最后供应时间为2026年4月30日。 日内价格震荡下行。昨日蒙煤通关量1440车。炼焦煤矿产量大幅抬升，现货竞拍成交改善，在盘面价格抬升的带动下，成交价格有所抬升，终端 库存大幅增加。炼焦煤总库存小幅抬升，产端库存小幅下降，体现出市场冬储的动作。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水维持淡季水平，观 察冬储是否继续进行，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪仍浓。焦煤盘面对蒙煤升水，市场对煤炭相关政策有一定预期，不过价格在总库 存抬升以及蒙煤通关数据较高的影响下大概率偏弱震荡为主。 机构观点 华泰期货： 蒙煤通关维持高位，国内煤矿产量回升，焦煤现货供应充足，价格上涨乏力，削弱了对焦炭的成本支撑。短期基本面矛盾相对可控，距离春节还 有三周，节前仍有补库预期存在，叠加动力煤价格止跌反弹，预计短期焦煤下行空间有限，维持震荡运行。关注焦煤供应政策、钢厂利润、焦化 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output, and Anhui short - process steel enterprises' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices. It will run in an oscillating and consolidating manner [2][3] Aluminum - Macro - level: The market is nervous about Trump's new tariff threat to Europe, which will negatively impact the aluminum demand expectation. China's policy supports the domestic market [2] - Fundamental: Snow in Henan affected transportation, weakening processing enterprise demand. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and its price may decline. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased slightly but is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons to 749,000 tons on January 19 [2][3] - The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - events and downstream feedback [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its position by 13,280 lots on Tuesday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day (936,583 lots). It decreased with increasing positions during the day, falling below the 5 - day, 130 - day, and 60 - day moving averages, with a low of 3110, a high of 3147, and closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day. [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 169 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for winter storage on the futures. [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. The year - on - year decrease was 29,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons week - on - week. This week's production decline and the relatively low weekly production in recent years provided some support for prices. [2] - Demand: Apparent consumption rebounded, indicating the possible start of winter storage. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons, and the year - on - year increase was 51,900 tons. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption increased significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand. [2] - Inventory: There was a slight inventory reduction, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders. [3] - Macroeconomics: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, which was in line with expectations. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure. [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and a loose macro - economic outlook. [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory clearance, accelerated blast furnace复产, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery. [4] Short - Term View Summary - The current rebar demand is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the steel price following the cost center down and mainly fluctuating within a range. The iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Coke and coking coal are likely to follow a weakening trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron need to pay attention to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [2][3][4][5][7][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is weak. The profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, but the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The steel price mainly fluctuates within a range [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume has declined but is much higher than last year. The port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved in the off - season, and the iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [3] Coke - The coke price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has slightly increased. With sufficient carbon element supply and weak downstream demand, it is likely to follow a weakening trend [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the terminal inventory has increased substantially. It is likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot price of manganese ore has increased. The demand for silicon manganese has decreased seasonally, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by policies, the supply has decreased significantly, and the demand remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has minor contradictions, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market lacks drivers and shows a volatile trend. The first round of coke price increase suspension has little impact, and it may still have a chance to be implemented this week. Iron ore prices mainly fluctuate, and short - term overall fluctuations are limited [2][3][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - On Monday, the spot and futures prices fluctuated, and spot trading was light. Although last week's weekly data from Steelhome improved, there was a difference from the spot market perception. Building material demand is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, providing limited support for the market. During the off - season around the Spring Festival, there is no significant selling pressure on prices. At the current valuation, steel mills have profits and a willingness to resume production, while traders are reluctant to conduct open - position winter storage and prefer basis trading. In the future, the probability of an increase in hot metal production is high, and there is support at low price levels. Market funds are abundant, but confidence is cautious. Hot - rolled coil futures and spot arbitrage should be rolled [2] - Adopt a unilateral range - bound trading strategy for steel: conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures and spot positive arbitrage, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [8] Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, there is a lack of drivers, and the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are volatile. On the demand side, as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and there is great pressure to adjust hot metal production downward, resulting in weak direct demand. In the off - season of terminal demand, overall demand is difficult to improve for the time being. On the supply side, although alloy plants' profits are generally poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. Macro - policies are mainly favorable, and industrial policies have an impact on supply and cost support expectations. Overall, the fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a decline in the future. Industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [3][5][8] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been put on hold, and market gaming continues. Coking coal online auctions are performing well, with a low overall non - trading rate and rising transaction prices. In the futures market, the black sector has followed the broader market to rise and then fall. In the off - season, there is no excessive selling pressure on the spot market. Coal mine supply continues to recover, and coal mine inventories are decreasing as downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks. In the short term, pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment will support spot prices. Although the steel market feels weak in the off - season, there is little selling pressure. The suspension of the first round of coke price increase has little impact, and it may still have a chance to be implemented this week under the influence of snow and rain in the production areas. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [6][8] Iron Ore - The steel mill accident over the weekend may lead to safety inspections or production suspension and rectification of the steel mill, which will have a significant impact on hot metal production for a long time. After the accident, it is more certain that the current valuation of iron ore is moderately high. Fundamentally, due to supply - demand factors, iron ore port inventories continue to rise, and there is clear upward pressure on ore prices. Recently, the apparent demand for steel has slightly declined, and the total steel inventory is still in a destocking state, with downstream data being neutral. The contradiction of iron elements is still accumulating, and short - term fluctuations are limited. Wait for a rebound and then look for opportunities to enter short positions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The iron ore market sentiment is pessimistic, and iron ore prices are expected to be weak. The coking coal and coke markets have limited supply - demand contradictions and are expected to fluctuate. The thermal coal market has increasing market waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the coal prices in the production areas are running weakly [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3140 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The spot steel transactions were generally weak, with the disk opening high and closing low, and the market speculation willingness was poor [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The building material production is at a low level in the same period, and the daily average pig iron output has declined. Steel mills have successively announced winter storage policies, but the downstream winter storage willingness is insufficient. The building material fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the building material prices are expected to remain volatile. The high inventory of plates has always suppressed the price marginal elasticity, and the policy expectations have driven the long - term demand expectations. In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, and the prices depend on cost changes [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore prices were weakly running. The spot prices of imported iron ore at Tangshan Port declined weakly, with less market transactions. The 47 - port arrival volume was 28.977 million tons, a decrease of 1.173 million tons compared with the previous period; the 45 - port arrival volume was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.606 million tons compared with the previous period [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while the shipments from non - mainstream countries continued to increase. The overall global shipments decreased. The demand for iron ore decreased last week, and the daily average pig iron output declined. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. In the short term, steel mills face winter storage replenishment, and iron ore prices will remain volatile [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal futures closed at 1174.5 yuan/ton, and the main contract of coke closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton, with the disk maintaining a range - bound operation. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented yet [6] Supply - Demand and Logic - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and there is a price game between steel and coking enterprises. Before the Spring Festival, the replenishment of steel mills is expected to further boost demand. In the short term, coke is expected to fluctuate. The supply of coking coal is increasing, but the fundamental contradiction is relatively controllable. Driven by the replenishment demand, the demand for coking coal is expected to continue to improve. The coking coal price has a bottom support [6] Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuation; Coke: Fluctuation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices in the main production areas declined weakly. The terminal demand such as metallurgy, chemical industry, and power plants was for on - demand procurement. At the ports, the coal market prices were weakly running. The import coal market transactions were deserted [8] Supply - Demand and Logic - The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment is increasing, the supply in the production areas is gradually recovering, and the coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [8] Strategy - None [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view of the steel industry is an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top, maintaining the idea of buying at support levels and participating flexibly [4] Core Viewpoints - The current rebar market is in an oscillatory and weak state. The demand is seasonally weak but winter storage demand is starting. The production is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The inventory is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low position with little pressure. The cost support is decreasing, and the real - estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside space, while the infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures price: On Monday, the rebar main contract's open interest decreased by 27,384 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 1,056,242 lots. The price was oscillatory and weak throughout the day, breaking below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages in the short - term. It closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.04%, with a low of 3,134 and a high of 3,171 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's rebar HRB400E 20mm was quoted at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for the winter storage on the futures market [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 15, the rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons week - on - week to 1.903 billion tons, starting to decline slightly after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 million tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 billion tons, down 1.49 million tons week - on - week. The current production was still relatively low compared to recent years, providing some support for the price [2] - Demand side: The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that winter storage might have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 million tons week - on - week to 1.9034 billion tons, and was 5.19 million tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, suggesting the start of winter storage demand [2] Inventory situation - The total inventory decreased slightly by 0.04 million tons week - on - week to 4.3807 billion tons as of the week of January 15. The social inventory was 2.9541 billion tons, up 5.23 million tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4266 billion tons, down 5.27 million tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the reduction of steel mill inventory indicated that traders had a certain amount of winter storage [3] Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real - estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic expectation was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality". Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was cutting production to avoid excessive competition, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, the demand would marginally improve after the Spring Festival, and the macro - economic expectation was loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival might exceed expectations, the de - stocking speed would slow down, the blast furnace restart would accelerate, the winter storage demand was cautious, the real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and the economic recovery was weak [4] Short - term View Summary - After the accident at Baotou Steel over the weekend, the futures market rose slightly in the morning session, but the real - estate data released today continued to decline, and the market weakened again. Currently, the rebar demand was seasonally weak, but the data released last week showed an increase, indicating that winter storage demand was starting. The production decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - excessive competition policy was expected to shrink production capacity, providing downward support. The inventory decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level with little pressure. In terms of cost, iron ore prices fell sharply today, port inventory was high, and coking coal and coke prices were weak, reducing cost support. The real - estate demand continued the downward cycle, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside space. However, infrastructure demand might have some resilience. In the short - term, the price broke below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, and in the medium - term, support should be watched at the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the market was in an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. It was advisable to maintain the idea of buying at support levels and participate flexibly [4]