Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, equity index futures declined while TL rose; metals and energy sectors advanced, with platinum, palladium, coking coal and coke leading the gains [12][14]. - The rally of coking coal and coke may be a valuation recovery driven by fund flows amid news catalysts, following an oversold period. With the intensification of winter stockpiling, their fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, but potential pressure from high coking coal imports and unstable thermal coal prices should be noted [18][25]. - For iron ore, overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, demand weakened, and port stocks edged up while steel mill stocks fell, with weak restocking willingness [34][35]. - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive investigations against Chinese enterprises and indicates that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case [39][40]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange was approved as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promote the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IC dropped by 0.7%, IM dropped by 0.3%, TL rose by 0.2% [12]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were palladium (up 7.0% with a 39.8% month - on - month surge in open interest), coking coal (up 6.1% with a 0.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and coke (up 5.4% with a 23.4% month - on - month drop in open interest). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 3.1% with a 1.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), poly - silicon (down 2.6% with an 8.9% month - on - month slide in open interest), and No.2 soybean (down 1.4% with a 35.9% month - on - month shrinkage in open interest) [13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal & Coke - On December 18th, coking coal rose by 6.1% to 1,126.5 yuan/tonne; coke climbed by 5.4% to 1,603.5 yuan/tonne. The rally may be due to news catalysts and fund flows after an oversold period [18]. - Two factors raised market expectations of tighter coal supply: the release of the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" and safety interviews with major coal - producing regions. However, the short - term impact on production and supply is limited. - Winter stockpiling has started. For coking coal, some coal varieties' cost - performance has become attractive, and mid - and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. For coke, steel mills' procurement intensity has slightly increased [22][23][24]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 18, iron ore rose 1.6% to 777.5 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with Australian shipments slightly growing, Brazilian shipments increasing significantly, and non - mainstream shipments weakening. Demand weakened as iron water output dropped, and steel mills' profitability and sinter powder consumption and inventory declined. Port stocks edged up, and steel mill stocks fell with weak restocking willingness [33][34][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM strongly opposes the European Commission's intensive launch of FSR investigations against Chinese enterprises, which are targeted and discriminatory. China urges the EU to stop the unreasonable suppression and create a fair business environment. - China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case, and China is willing to resolve differences through dialogue [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Guangzhou Futures Exchange as a Qualified Central Counterparty, which helps enhance its international influence and promotes the high - level opening - up of China's futures market [42].

当下，螺纹钢库存结构是比较健康的，现实供需矛盾也不大。因此，本轮价格下跌过程中，期货价格的 跌幅明显大于现货。螺纹钢主力2605合约对华东现货的贴水已经扩大至196元／吨，处于近3年高位。杭 州地区螺纹钢库存已经从11月下旬的95.7万吨下降至69.7万吨。螺纹钢期货前20席位净多和净空持仓的 差值也从11月下旬的-11.16万手变为2.27万手。 明年1月，市场可能逐步关注到冬储逻辑。虽然现在市场普遍预计2026年建材需求会继续下一个台阶， 贸易商冬储意愿偏差，但是螺纹钢2605合约价格已经接近电炉钢的谷电成本（3079元／吨），且盘面贴 水已经处于高位，具备一定冬储价值。因此，我们预计仍会有贸易商通过盘面或场外累购期权的方式进 行冬储。 12月5日以来，螺纹钢价格出现快速下跌，主力2605合约价格最低下探至3031元／吨，相比月初高点下 跌150元／吨，跌幅约为4.7%。对于后期走势，我们认为，利空充分发酵之后，螺纹钢价格有望在3000 元／吨附近逐步企稳。 近期大跌原因分析 近期，螺纹钢价格大幅下跌主要是因为需求走弱和成本支撑下移。12月是传统的建材需求淡季，螺纹钢 表观消费量从11月下旬的230.79 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: Jinxin Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Analysis Core View - Coking coal price increase is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment and winter storage expectations [2] Driving Factors - Since December, environmental protection warnings in the north have led to coking enterprises' production restrictions of 20% - 35% [3] - Year - end coal mine maintenance, policy support, and winter storage replenishment expectations have boosted sentiment [3] - Relevant departments have released standards for the clean and efficient use of coal [3] Supply and Demand - Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and domestic high - quality production capacity is steadily increasing, with a loose supply pattern [4] - Real estate has dragged down steel demand, and the blast furnace hot metal output of steel mills is low, making it difficult for the rigid demand for coking coal to significantly recover [4] Market Rhythm - Winter storage may bring short - term pulses but is difficult to sustain; rapid price increases may trigger an increase in imported coal, suppressing the increase [4] Operation Suggestions - In the medium and long term, gradually lay out long positions on dips; in the short term, strictly control positions [4] Key Price Levels - On December 18, the highest price of the main contract was 1,136.5 yuan; 1,200 yuan is a strong resistance level, 1,050 yuan is a short - term support level, and 1,000 yuan has cost support [3] Group 3: A - share Market Analysis Market Performance - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend. The technology sector adjusted, and the banking sector supported the market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly up, while other indices generally rose and then fell [6] Technical Analysis - The 15 - minute cycle can be regarded as a consolidation of the previous day's afternoon rally. If the consolidation ends, there may be another rally [6] Operation Suggestions - High - sell on rallies tomorrow, but do not chase the rise [6] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis Market Trend - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows signs of upward movement [8] Operation Suggestions - Try to go long [8] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply and Demand - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak [10][11] Technical Analysis - Adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy, selling high and buying low [10] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis Market Drivers - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has decreased this week. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance [15] Technical Analysis - In the short term, regard it as an oscillating market [14][15] Group 7: Palm Oil Market Analysis Market Situation - As the palm oil - producing areas gradually enter the production - reduction season, if Malaysian palm oil exports remain weak, there may be inventory accumulation in December [16] Operation Suggestions - Seize short - selling opportunities [16] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis Market Outlook - With domestic policies boosting domestic demand, overseas pulp mills reducing production, and the elimination of backward papermaking production capacity, the demand for commercial pulp is expected to improve [19] Market Judgment - An oscillating market is expected [19]

Market Trends - On December 18, coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly, with the near-month contract JM2601 rising by 4.69%, the main contract JM2605 increasing by 6.07%, and the main coke contract J2601 up by 5.39% [2] Fundamental Data Supply Side - This week, the output of premium coal and raw coal from sample mines was 757,500 tons and 1,927,000 tons, respectively, showing a slight increase. The operating rate of premium coal mines rose by 1.31% to 86.62% [5] - The average daily output of premium coal from sample washing plants was 272,900 tons, a slight decrease of 630 tons [6] - The average daily output of coke from independent coking plants was 639,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.16%, both showing a slight decline [6] Demand Side - The average daily output of molten iron from sample steel mills decreased by 31,000 tons to 2,292,000 tons, with a slight decline in blast furnace capacity utilization [6] - The profitability of sample steel mills was reported at 35.93%, which has decreased again [6] Inventory - The inventory of premium coal at sample mines was 2,727,700 tons, showing a slight increase of 174,600 tons [6] - The inventory of coking coal at independent coking plants was 10,373,000 tons, with an available days inventory of 12.19 days, both showing a slight increase [6] Market Sentiment - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is attributed more to market sentiment and short-sellers taking profits rather than fundamental improvements [7] - The expectation of high-quality coking coal supply tightening is driven by the new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [8] - Despite the rebound, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to the potential for weak demand and the impact of imported coal [9][10]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-18 供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 钢材：供需矛盾不足，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3084元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3245元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格和昨日基本持稳，成交略弱于昨日，低价出货意愿增加。全国建材成交99463。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：钢谷数据显示建材产量转增，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材高库存持 续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在。短期明年扩内需等政策预期仍在，基本面矛盾不足，价格底部关注环保及季节 性减产情况、需求及产量变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾后置，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘765元；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成 交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：供应端海外发运量维持高位，前期高发运陆续到港，港口呈累库趋势，供应相对宽松。需求 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 2025/12/16 -375 3947 115035 45784 -1413.46 -104.22 42.0 48.0 -9.52 166600 64400 2025/12/17 -330 4353 115035 44877 - -196.60 44.0 50.0 - 166925 64450 变化 45 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December 2025, due to a structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and uneven global inventory distribution [1] - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 and then tighten with demand growth, as the easing of interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand have affected the market [2] - Zinc prices are difficult to fall deeply at the end of the year due to a potential supply reduction, but the domestic fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak with supply decline, weak demand, and continuous inventory accumulation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak with high production, weak demand, and high inventory. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, with the supply - demand contradiction relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, but there is still a risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction, and there is a risk of supply over - release and downstream negative feedback. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term, as the supply and demand are balanced in December 2025 and there is still high over - capacity [18] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand. The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory**: Copper prices hit a new high this week and then fell. The inventory is unevenly distributed globally, and there is a supply - demand gap in 2026. Domestic inventory may accumulate slightly until the Spring Festival [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, affected by interest - rate cut expectations and weak terminal demand. The inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Strategy**: Volatile and strong in the short term, but demand may be weak in early 2026 [2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME 0 - 3M premium declined. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the overseas LME inventory increased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and some smelters are under maintenance. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [6] - **Strategy**: Wait and see on the long - short side, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [6] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Nickel prices fell this week. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased continuously at home and abroad [9] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Stainless steel prices decreased slightly this week. The production remained high, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remained high [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities due to potential price - supporting policies in Indonesia [12] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: Lead prices fell slightly this week. The supply - demand contradiction was relieved by the resumption of secondary lead production, and the downstream replenishment provided support [13] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,600, and beware of the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Tin prices rose rapidly this week. The supply may increase marginally under high prices, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs with weak downstream orders [15] - **Strategy**: May fluctuate greatly in the short term if there is a macro - systematic correction. It can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026, but beware of correction risks [15] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand are balanced in December 2025, and there is still high over - capacity [18] - **Strategy**: Oscillate with costs in the short term and move in a cycle at the bottom in the long term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Lithium carbonate prices rose slightly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, but the actual trading volume is light [20] - **Strategy**: The upper - price limit needs inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [20]

12月16日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，沥青期货主力合约开盘报2950.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，沥青主力最高触及2951.00元，下方探低2888.00元，跌幅达2.06%。 最新数据显示，截至12月15日当周，国内沥青104家社会库库存共计102.9万吨，较12月11日减少0.7%。 后市来看，沥青期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）表示，沥青现阶段旺季并无超预期表现。短期需要关注冬储情况，炼厂是否会进一 步调整价格刺激拿货。由于成本端原油仍存地缘和谈扰动，因此沥青短期维持震荡看待。 截至12月15日，沥青综合利润为-354元/吨，环比上升0.52元/吨。 12月15日，沥青前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓22.77万手，空单持仓25.13万手，多空比 0.91。净持仓为-2.35万手，相较上日增加3204手。 新湖期货指出，昨日山东沥青市场个别主力炼厂释放3月底冬储合同，2900-2920元/吨，齐鲁、华龙等 复产，海右出售一批库存，区内流通资源明显回升，胜星计划近日复产沥青，现货压力增加，南方市场 供应也明显增加，华东主力炼厂提产 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月16日 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位,供应过剩格局难改,行业库存和交易所仓单持续上升,未来二个月 仓单过期流出压力丈。山西河南平均完全成本2850-2900元，现金成本核算仍有利润，形成规模减 产前盘面反弹空间有限,现货下跌确定性更强。 (原油) 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布对俄罗斯采取新一轮制裁措施。自上周美国扣押一艘沟轮并对 与委内瑞拉有业务往来的航运公司和船只实施制裁以来，委内瑞拉的石油出口量急剧下降。然全球 原油供需愈发宽松背景下,美国主导的和谈取得进展导致市场担忧达成协议后俄油供应释放进一步 增大供应压力,油价承压降至年内低点。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续偏强运行。美联储会议后宽松交易延续,黄金逼近历史高点位置,如果实现突破则 贵金属强势表现有望延续。铂肥创上市以来新高，外盘强势突破前高压力位加速上涨。金银强势背 景下,相对低估值钩把受多头资金青睐,商业航天发展如火如荼,氢能板块用铂把存想象空间,供 应端的强刚性约束下，铂肥中长线多配节奏明确。今晚重点关注美国11月非农数据发布。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜冲高收回部分涨幅 ...