Core Viewpoint - The recent "takeout war" among delivery platforms is driven by the need to capture market share and stimulate consumer spending through substantial subsidies, resulting in a win-win situation for platforms, riders, and consumers [3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "takeout war" has led to record-high order volumes, with Meituan reporting 150 million instant retail orders, and rider incomes increasing by 111% during peak weekends [3]. - Competing platforms like JD and Taobao Flash Purchase have also reported historical highs in their order volumes, indicating a robust competitive environment [3]. - The competition is not merely about existing market share but is focused on tapping into a significant incremental market for instant retail, which addresses immediate consumer needs that traditional e-commerce does not [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The subsidies have encouraged consumer spending, transforming potential desires into actual transactions, thus fostering a culture of immediate consumption [4][5]. - Many transactions stem from genuine consumer needs rather than just opportunistic behavior, indicating a shift in consumer habits towards more frequent small purchases [4]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The competition among platforms is seen as a healthy rivalry that enhances industry infrastructure and positions China's internet sector on a global scale [6]. - The ongoing "takeout war" reflects the broader economic recovery and the restructuring of digital platforms, highlighting the need for regulatory frameworks to ensure fair competition while promoting consumer welfare [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing challenges such as "involutionary" competition and a persistent decline in profit margins, necessitating a shift from price-driven to value-driven market strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's automotive industry achieved remarkable results, with both production and sales exceeding 15 million units for the first time, and new energy vehicle sales growing over 40% year-on-year [2]. - The automotive export market also experienced double-digit growth, indicating a positive trend in international competitiveness [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The automotive industry's profit margins have been declining for nearly eight years, leading to a critical situation of "increment without profit" that needs urgent resolution [3]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for innovation and focus on key technologies, particularly in new energy and intelligent connected vehicles, to enhance competitiveness and profitability [3]. - There is a consensus among industry experts that understanding and meeting consumer emotional needs is becoming a core competitive advantage in automotive product development [3]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - Industry stakeholders are encouraged to foster a new type of competitive and cooperative relationship, aiming to create new technologies, products, and business models to cultivate new growth areas in the industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the market index [3][62]. Core Insights - The capital market has shown a pronounced "dumbbell" funding structure, with small and micro-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in the first half of the year. This trend is driven by the influx of insurance funds and the stabilizing role of state-owned funds [1][12]. - The report identifies several sources of incremental capital entering the market, including central government funds, insurance companies, foreign investments, and a resurgence in public and private equity funds [2][39]. - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in natural monopoly industries, supported by stable cash flows and reduced capital expenditure pressures [51]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report discusses the formation of a "dumbbell" structure in the market, where micro and small-cap stocks have achieved the best returns, followed by small-cap and large-cap stocks [12]. - It notes that the performance of large-cap stocks has improved post-tariff impacts, with a notable catch-up effect observed [12]. Sources of Incremental Capital - Central Huijin is identified as a stabilizing force in the market, acting as a quasi-stabilization fund through significant ETF holdings [17]. - Insurance companies are increasing their influence in the capital market, with premium income growing and investment funds expanding, leading to a higher allocation towards equity assets [25][29]. - Foreign capital is expected to reallocate towards Chinese assets, driven by favorable valuation and a stable regulatory environment [33]. - Public funds are experiencing a revival in active equity issuance, while private funds are seeing a recovery in management scale [39][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, emphasizing their strong market positions and potential for performance [3][63]. - It also suggests that firms with robust flow advantages and diverse monetization licenses, like Dongfang Wealth and Guolian Minsheng, are well-positioned for growth [62][63].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Sci-Tech Innovation Board Listed Companies No. 5 - Sci-Tech Growth Tier," allowing unprofitable companies to enter the growth tier without additional listing thresholds [1] - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide state-owned commercial insurance companies to establish a long-term assessment mechanism and improve asset-liability management [1] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration introduced the "Product Appropriateness Management Measures," prohibiting misleading practices in the promotion and sale of financial products [2] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced revisions to the Growth Enterprise Market Composite Index, including a monthly removal mechanism for risk-warning stocks and an ESG negative removal mechanism [2] - The U.S. President announced a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, which may impact trade relations [3] - The EU expressed concerns over the U.S. tariffs, stating they could harm mutual interests and indicated readiness to take countermeasures if necessary [3] Group 3 - The "takeout war" has resumed with major platforms like Meituan, Taobao, and JD launching discount campaigns [5] - GAC Group projected a net loss of 1.82 billion to 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, attributing it to slow sales of new energy models and structural mismatches in sales systems [6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月13日 下半年市场增量资金哪里来？ 优于大市 存款搬家驱动哑铃型资金结构再调整 保险资金持续入市，国家队托底，而场内资金依靠小市值个股交易套利，导 致上半年资本市场呈现极致哑铃型资金结构。以市值因子观测，今年微盘股 收益最佳、小盘股次之、大盘股再次之。微盘股、小盘股年初以来持续领涨。 关税冲击后，大盘股表现出追赶效应。以"市值+风格"因子观测，大盘价 值、小盘成长、小盘价值取得明显超额，大盘成长及中盘股则表现较差。2025 年以来，市场增量资金包括：（1）中央汇金为代表的类平准基金，主要为 市场起托底作用；（2）保险公司为代表的金融机构，对股息稳定、大盘价 值风格较偏好，对红利因子持续加大投资；（3）中性策略的量化私募、部 分个人投资者两融资金，对波动率较高的小微盘股偏好度较高。 存款利率持续下行，下一步居民存款搬家将驱动增量资金入市，资金结构更 多元。（1）中央汇金和保险等资金，代表市场稳定器，持股风格整体稳定； 下一步保险负债成本下行，分红产品占比增加，为实现行业均衡，关注险资 红利资产"扩圈"带来的配置机会；（2）存款和纯固收产品持续低回报， 这成为催化居民加大权益资产 ...

1 本周观点 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 均衡 | 观点简述： 每周思考总第637期 《 主力资金出现强势买入！ 》 申明： 因合规考虑，自2025年4月21日后，暂停更新历史观点回溯模拟净值。 本文表述观点，仅代表作者发稿当时的个人想法与思考笔记，仅供读者参考而不作为任何投资 建议。作者保留根据市场环境、新信息等适度修正观点的权利。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 技术面上，5月以来的持续决定性变量，继续加码。 自4月30日以来，我们持续检测到多维度机 构资金的轮动式加仓行为，且都与上述基本面维度反向，上周二再度监测到主力资金及游资的强力加 仓信号并触发新的买入信号，与5月的差异在于主力资金的空翻多加仓行为值得特别留意。 综上所述，上周二市场再现强力增量资金入场，并触发资金面信号再次转为看多。基本面上，中 国的物价数据与美国的就业数据继续呈现出弱势的基本面特征，重申美国"大美丽法案"只是存量刺激 的延续而非新增量，更适合以"利多出尽"方式应对； 技术面上，5月以来的增量资金带领A股持续反 弹新高，上周二再现重要增量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu World Games, taking place from August 7 to 17, 2023, marks the first time mainland China hosts this event, aiming to convert event traffic into cultural tourism "retention," consumption "energy," and economic "increment" through a series of activities [2][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Chengdu World Games will feature a series of activities titled "Travel with the Event," starting in October 2024, designed to promote local culture and tourism while engaging millions of participants across 21 cities in Sichuan [2][5]. - The "Event Theme Caravan" will integrate local culture into its activities, such as showcasing traditional martial arts and recreating historical gatherings, to attract diverse age groups [5][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The initiative aims to stimulate consumption by linking various sectors, including sports, culture, tourism, and dining, through a "ticket root economy" that offers discounts based on event tickets and other criteria [7][8]. - The Chengdu World Games activities are expected to support the city's goal of becoming a world cultural city and inject vitality into Sichuan's cultural tourism development [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Sichuan plans to enhance the integration of sports with culture, tourism, and commerce through upcoming international events, aiming to create new consumption scenarios and invigorate the sports market [7][8]. - Continuous improvement in infrastructure and differentiation of tourism products is essential for effectively converting cultural tourism retention into economic increment [8].

Core Insights - Taobao Flash Sale has achieved over 80 million daily orders within just two months of launch, significantly boosting summer service consumption and increasing rider incomes [1] Group 1: Consumer and Merchant Benefits - Taobao Flash Sale initiated a substantial platform consumption coupon subsidy plan worth 50 billion, providing consumers with large red envelopes, free order cards, and official subsidized products, while merchants receive multiple forms of support [2] - The dual-subsidy model aims to break the "involution" competition among merchants, stimulating urban consumption and benefiting small businesses, thus enhancing the operational vitality of traditional stores [2] - The strategy creates a positive cycle where platform benefits lead to user gains and merchant growth, ensuring reasonable profit margins for merchants and fostering a healthier market environment [2] Group 2: Market Response and Innovation - The emergence of Taobao Flash Sale is seen as a significant innovation to boost consumer activity, aligning with government priorities to enhance consumption [3] - Merchants are exploring new online operational strategies and accumulating digital assets while moving towards more refined operational tactics [3] Group 3: Rider Support and Income Growth - The number of cities with daily orders exceeding one million has doubled since the subsidy launch, leading to a substantial increase in rider incomes by 30% to 50% [4] - Measures to support riders include enhanced order rewards, weather subsidies, and flexible delivery arrangements to ensure their safety and comfort during extreme weather conditions [4][6] - Ele.me has implemented a high-temperature care initiative, providing weather-related subsidies and optimizing delivery routes to reduce outdoor exposure for riders [4][5]

Index Performance - The CSI A500 Index rose by 0.96% this week, closing at 4707.08 points on July 11, marking three consecutive weeks of gains [6] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 4067.87 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 10.89% [6] Component Stocks Performance - The top ten gainers this week included: 1. Zhongyou Capital (000617.SZ) with a gain of 27.78% 2. Quzhou Development (600208.SH) with a gain of 23.67% 3. Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) with a gain of 21.66% 4. Shenghe Resources (600392.SH) with a gain of 18.99% 5. Harbin Investment (600864.SH) with a gain of 16.36% 6. China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) with a gain of 16.31% 7. Baogang Group (600010.SH) with a gain of 15.47% 8. New Town Holdings (601155.SH) with a gain of 12.98% 9. JA Solar Technology (002459.SZ) with a gain of 12.56% 10. Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) with a gain of 12.50% [4] - The top ten losers included: 1. Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521.SH) with a loss of 9.50% 2. Kelun Pharmaceutical (002422.SZ) with a loss of 8.61% 3. Baillie Gifford (688506.SH) with a loss of 8.43% 4. Junshi Biosciences (688180.SH) with a loss of 7.54% 5. Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) with a loss of 6.30% 6. Yingfeng Environment (000967.SZ) with a loss of 5.94% 7. Ziwen Mining (601899.SH) with a loss of 5.79% 8. Juhua Group (600160.SH) with a loss of 5.62% 9. Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a loss of 5.41% 10. Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) with a loss of 5.35% [4] Fund Performance - All 38 CSI A500 funds collectively rose this week, with the top performer being the Fortune Fund, which increased by 1.48% [7] - The total scale of these funds reached 1985.44 billion yuan, with the top three being Huatai-PineBridge (189.17 billion yuan), Guotai (178.43 billion yuan), and GF Fund (171.80 billion yuan) [7] Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that the A-share market has broken through key levels, moving away from a "full reduction" mindset, with structural expansion observed [8] - The bond market is experiencing low interest rates and volatility, facing strong resistance both upwards and downwards [8] - The report suggests that the second half of the year will see an influx of incremental capital, driving the market to a new level, with insurance capital leading the way [8] - The technology sector is highlighted as having high probability and return potential due to industry trends and supportive policies [8] - Consumer data shows signs of improvement, with macroeconomic indicators reflecting positive trends, particularly in discretionary consumption [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]