房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 房地产行业第 19 周周报（2025 年 5 月 6 日-2025 年 5 月 9 日） 本周新房、二手房成交面积同环比均走弱；降准降息落 地，地产相关融资支持力度有望加大 新房成交面积同环比增速均由正转负。二手房成交面积环比降幅收窄，同比增速由正转负。 新房库存面积与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 ◼ 5 月 7 日国新办举办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况发布会。主要包括：1） 降准 0.5pct，提供长期流动性 1 万亿。2）下调政策利率 0.1pct。预计 5 月 5 年期以上 LPR 有望同步下调 10 个基点，或从 3.6%降至 3.5%，将进一步降低购房者置业成本。3）下调 结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25pct，其中就包括 3000 亿元的保障性住房再贷款，利率将从 1.75%下调至 1.5%，我们认为，这将激励引导金融机构支持收购已建成未出售商品房用作 保障房，以加快行业库存去化；还包括抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率从目前的 2.25%降至 2%， 也有利于为市场释放更多低成本资金，提升政策性银行对市场的支持 ...

苏州二手房4月成交同样呈现上升态势。据永联行研究院监测数据，苏州4月二手房总签约套数7531套， 环比上涨4.22%，同比上涨4.79%；二手房活跃度持续提升，成交均价24050元/平方米，环比下滑 0.17%。 新房市场持续"小阳春"热度。刚过去的"五一"假期，江宁区"好房节"上，售楼处人潮涌动，日均到访量 最高达340组。许多家庭带着老人、孩子一起看房。7个楼盘5天卖掉126套房，销售面积1.36万平方米， 销售额突破3.78亿元，创下该区"五一"假期楼市成交新高。 "数据的背后，是购房者对楼市的信心回归。""五一"期间江宁区认购量第一的茂棠名邸营销负责人朱炎 龙告诉记者，茂棠名邸销售均价大约2.1万/平方米，总价180万—350万元，其中89平方米的三房两卫户 型卖得最好，受到年轻人青睐。该项目去年12月首开，当日去化九成，今年又连续加推3次，如今5栋楼 已去化七成。"房企应该建客户需要的好房子。例如对首次置业的刚需人群来说，外立面是否为铝板、 有没有会所和泳池、五金卫浴是不是顶奢，这些都不是最重要的。对他们来说，得房率高一点、总价低 一点、空间设计更合理一点、装修配置更完善一点，更重要。" 5月7日， ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [1][2] - A 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates was also announced, which is expected to lead to a similar reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2][4] - The adjustment of the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points aims to stabilize the housing market and alleviate repayment pressure for homebuyers [1][3] Monetary Policy Measures - The RRR was lowered from 6.6% to 6.2%, with an expected long-term liquidity provision of about 1 trillion yuan [2][4] - The policy interest rate was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, which is anticipated to lower the 5-year LPR from 3.6% to 3.5% [2][4] - The housing provident fund loan rates for first-time buyers were adjusted from 2.85% to 2.6%, and for second-time buyers from 3.325% to 3.075% [3][4] Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in housing provident fund loan rates is expected to save residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments, supporting rigid housing demand [3][4] - The measures are likely to reduce the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate housing demand, contributing positively to the real estate market [4][7] - The policy is expected to enhance the liquidity in the real estate sector, benefiting both first-time homebuyers and the overall market [3][4] Future Financing Policies - The financial regulatory authority plans to introduce eight new policies to support the real estate sector, including loan management guidelines for housing development and urban renewal [5][6] - The aim is to ensure stable financing for real estate projects and meet both rigid and improvement housing demands [6][7] - The emphasis on high-quality housing supply is expected to lead to increased funding support for developers, enhancing the overall market stability [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China still has significant growth potential, with recent supportive monetary policies expected to boost housing demand and stabilize the market [1][4]. - The recent reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates is anticipated to further lower commercial loan rates, thereby reducing home purchase costs and enhancing market attractiveness [3][4]. - Continuous monetary policy support is expected to maintain a stable environment for the real estate sector, with further optimization of policies likely to accelerate [1][7]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates, which will open up further room for commercial loan rate reductions [3]. - A comprehensive monetary policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, enhancing liquidity and market confidence [4]. Market Dynamics - The first quarter of this year saw an increase of over 750 billion yuan in real estate loan balances, with personal housing loans experiencing the largest quarterly increase since 2022 [7]. - The approval amount for "white list" loans in the real estate sector has risen to 6.7 trillion yuan, indicating strong financial support for the industry [7]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises benefiting from supply-side reforms, stocks related to land acquisition policies, and companies expected to rebound as the market stabilizes [1].

房地产 业 研 2025 年 05 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《政治局会议表态持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.4.27 《新房成交面积环比增长，持续巩固 房地产市场稳定态势—行业周报》 -2025.4.27 《二手房成交面积同比增长，进一步 释放房地产市场潜力—行业周报》 -2025.4.20 新房成交面积同环比增长，杭州土拍市场火热 ——行业周报 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房成交面积同环比增长，杭州土拍市场火热 本周我们跟踪的 68 城新房成交环比增长，同比增长，20 城二手房成交面积环比 下降，同比增长。土地成交面积环比增长，同比下降，溢价率环比增长。国内信 用债发行规模环比增长。 ...

尽管是工作日，在北京南五环的一个新房售楼处里，记者看到，来选房看房的市民络绎不绝，接待区几乎都坐满了。工作人员介绍，最近 平均每天要接待200到300组客户，周末的接待量更大。目前，北京不少新房项目的咨询量、线下到访量大幅度增加，部分项目到访量较春节前 增长了近一倍。最新数据显示，今年一季度，北京全市新房网签达到9700套，同比增长12.3%。 除了北京，广州、深圳等一线城市新房以及二手房的成交量也一直处于高位运行。今年一季度，广州新房网签面积218.56万平方米，同比 增长17.7%；二手住宅交易登记面积282.58万平方米，同比增长27.6%。上海新建商品住宅成交面积增长10.5%。深圳新建商品住宅、二手住宅 合计成交超2.6万套，同比增长67.7%。 一线楼市的热度正在不断传导到更多的二三线城市，新房和二手房的交易量也在明显增加。今年一季度，重庆中心城区商品住房成交实现 连续6个月正增长；武汉新房成交量超过18000套，同比增长超三成；贵阳成交量持续保持同比上涨，市场信心稳步修复。 专家表示，今年以来，各种利好政策的持续加强，有效提振了购房者的信心，楼市活跃度明显提升，买房人、卖房人的市场信心正在逐步 ...

Core Insights - In April, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,764 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month structural increase of 0.14% and a year-on-year increase of 2.50% [1] - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in new home prices, with Shanghai and Hangzhou leading the gains at 0.61% and 0.95% respectively [1] - The second-hand housing market in core cities remains active, but with a high listing volume, the trend of "price for volume" is prevalent, leading to a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% in average second-hand residential prices across 100 cities [2] New Housing Market - New housing prices in first-tier cities increased by 0.37% month-on-month, with Shanghai's price increase driven by new improvement projects [1] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.10%, with Hangzhou's new home prices rising by 0.95% [1] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.11% in new housing prices [1] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities showed a month-on-month price decrease of 0.36%, with Shanghai's decline narrowing to 0.32% due to improved buyer demand [2] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decrease of 0.77% in second-hand housing prices, influenced by increased listing volumes [2] - Third and fourth-tier cities saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.73%, with some cities experiencing declines exceeding 1% [2] Market Outlook - The Central Research Institute indicates that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to continue, with urban renewal becoming a key driver for housing consumption [2] - Support for the acquisition of existing properties is anticipated to increase, along with measures to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [2] - The market is expected to maintain recovery in May, driven by ongoing policy efforts and increased supply of quality housing, although a differentiated market landscape will persist [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan city is implementing various financial incentives and support measures to stabilize the real estate market and encourage home purchases, particularly for families with multiple children [1] Group 1: Housing Purchase Subsidies - Families with two children will receive a subsidy of 60,000 yuan, while families with three children will receive 120,000 yuan when purchasing new residential properties [1] - The subsidies are available for purchases made between May 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025 [1] Group 2: Housing Loan Policies - The maximum limit for the second personal housing provident fund loan will be aligned with that of the first home [1] - Commercial banks are encouraged to offer specialized housing loan products and diverse repayment methods for young people working and starting businesses in Wuhan [1] Group 3: Support for Second-Hand Housing - The city plans to purchase 3,000 second-hand homes to support various rental and resettlement housing initiatives [1] - There will be full tax reimbursement for families selling their own homes and purchasing new ones within specified timeframes [1] Group 4: Commercial Property Support - From May 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, individuals purchasing new commercial or office properties for non-business purposes will receive a 50% tax reimbursement [1] - The minimum down payment for commercial loans will be reduced from 50% to 45%, with interest rates determined by banks based on risk management principles [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a need for significant new support measures to stabilize the market [7][35]. Core Insights - New home sales continue to decline year-on-year, with a 23.3% drop in the last week across 30 major cities, although there was a 12.2% increase compared to the previous week [1][14]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized timely monetary easing measures to support the real estate market, but the effectiveness of such measures may be diminishing due to prolonged low interest rates [5][35]. - The report highlights a disparity in new home sales growth among first-tier cities, with Beijing experiencing a 2.1% decline, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw increases of 25.2% and 58.7%, respectively [2][17]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales and Land Transactions - The total new home sales volume in 30 major cities reached 1.67 million square meters, down 23.3% year-on-year, with all city categories showing declines [1][14]. - Land transaction volume in 100 major cities was 16.42 million square meters, reflecting a 24.3% year-on-year decrease, although it increased by 23.6% compared to the previous week [4][29]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The overall inventory-to-sales ratio for residential properties in the top ten cities was 103.3, higher than the previous year's 88.0, indicating a stable inventory level [3][26]. - First-tier cities had a lower inventory-to-sales ratio of 62.8 compared to last year's 64.9, while second-tier cities showed a significant increase to 174.4 from 118.0 [3][26]. Policy and Market Developments - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on April 25 highlighted the need for timely interest rate cuts and increased support for the real estate market, aiming to stabilize the sector [5][31]. - The report notes that while the policy direction is positive, there is a lack of substantial new support measures, making the current economic environment more complex [7][35]. Stock Performance - The report indicates that Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks have generally lagged behind the broader market, with the Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rising only 0.4% [6][33]. - Specific stocks such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land are highlighted for continued attention due to their relatively stable performance [8][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate market is stabilizing, with expectations for gradual policy easing to support this trend [1] - New home sales in 36 cities increased by 10.9% week-on-week but decreased by 21.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed recovery [13][23] - The second-hand housing market shows a positive trend, with a 20.1% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [23] - The report highlights the importance of policy measures to ensure a stable and healthy real estate market as a prerequisite for economic transformation [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.2% last week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which rose by 0.4% and 1.2% respectively [68] - Among 29 sectors tracked, real estate ranked 27th in performance [68] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - New home sales in 36 cities totaled 173.7 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 10.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% [13] - Cumulative new home sales from April 1 to April 25 reached 574.4 million square meters, down 13.8% year-on-year [13] - The second-hand home market saw a transaction volume of 192.2 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [23] - Cumulative second-hand home sales for the year reached 2,608.9 million square meters, up 26.6% year-on-year [23] 3. Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory in 13 cities stood at 7,778.7 million square meters, with a 0.5% increase week-on-week and an 11.9% decrease year-on-year [31] - The absorption period for new homes is 17.1 months, reflecting a slight increase from the previous period [31] 4. Land Market Conditions - Land transactions in 100 cities totaled 1,641.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 23.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% [53] - The average land price was 2,249 RMB per square meter, reflecting a significant increase of 177.3% week-on-week and 29.9% year-on-year [53] 5. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a focus on companies with strong shareholder backing [8] - In property management, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life and Greentown Service [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests monitoring I Love My Home [9]