Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas in sample cities, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, which may help stimulate demand in the housing market [5]. - The analysis indicates that the new housing market may experience marginal improvements sooner than the second-hand housing market due to supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has narrowed to -10% as of June 12, with a month-on-month comparison showing a relatively high level compared to the past five years [4][9]. - The report notes that the new housing transaction area in first-tier cities has turned negative, while second-tier cities show a significant decline of -10% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also narrowed to -4%, with a notable increase in transaction activity in first-tier cities [4][14]. - The report indicates that the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with transaction areas in some sample cities turning positive [14]. Land Acquisition - The report states that from January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area has seen a year-on-year decline of -7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21][26]. - The land acquisition data indicates a trend of increasing average prices despite a decrease in transaction volumes, suggesting a tightening supply [21][29]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report highlights an increase in the unsold inventory and the time required to sell properties, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [31][34]. - The analysis suggests that the market is entering a phase of observation, with high-quality residential supply and narrowing differences between rental yields and mortgage rates being key variables to monitor [5][31]. Forward-Looking Indicators - The report discusses various forward-looking indicators, including a projected increase in liquidity and a potential rise in confidence in housing transactions across multiple cities [5][49]. - The report also notes that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating cautious sentiment among buyers [51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas since June, with the decline rate expanding [1][9] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with indicators suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market, driven by policy adjustments and liquidity improvements [5][49] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 25%, which is an increase of 12 percentage points compared to May [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is particularly pronounced in second-tier cities, with a year-on-year drop of 28% [4][9] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transaction areas also experienced a year-on-year decline of 24%, with a similar expansion in the decline rate compared to May [4] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market is facing a more severe contraction than the new housing market [5] Land Acquisition - From January to May 2025, the cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [21] - The report indicates that the land acquisition market is experiencing a mixed trend, with some cities showing significant price increases despite declining transaction volumes [21][26] Market Indicators - The report mentions that the confidence index for new and second-hand housing transactions has shown a marginal decline, indicating a cautious outlook among buyers [5][51] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has also shown a narrowing year-on-year increase, reflecting a more subdued market environment [5][52] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the new housing market may see marginal improvements before the second-hand market, driven by supply constraints and quality enhancements [5] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-quality residential supply and the narrowing gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates as key variables for future market performance [5]

由此可见，一线城市的新房价格并没有延续之前的上涨趋势，进入到4月份开始，一线城市的新房价格开始转为持平，而且这还是建立在重点城市，改善楼 盘供给增加的前提下。 二线城市的新房销售价格环比也是持平，与上月相同。也就是说，4月份12线城市的新房整体价格都没有出现上涨。 按理来说，随着好房子概念的加速落地，并且改善楼盘的供应量，也出现了明显增加，房价应该出现上升趋势才对。 但现在看来，涨势已经出现了放缓，这足以说明房地产市场的止跌回稳依旧不太稳固，预示着接下来还需要更多利好措施给予楼市支持。 三线城市新房销售环比下降0.2%，而之所以会出现价格持续下跌的情况，核心原因还是在于三线城市的库存量依旧较高，好房子的概念在三四线城市并没 有大城市那么强烈。 当然，从上述数据也不难看出，单单是新房市场，同样也出现了城市分化越来越严重的情况。 先来看看新房市场： 国家统计局公布的4月份70城房价数据显示，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比由上月上涨0.1%转为持平。 4月份的房价数据并不太理想，那么5月份究竟如何呢？ 看看新房市场情况： 5月份一线城市新建住宅价格环比上涨0.90%，二线城市环比上涨0.06%，三四线代表城市环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]

房地产行业跟踪周报 新房成交面积环比改善，二手房成交同比持续 正增 增持（维持） 2025 年 06 月 03 日 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -18% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32% 2024/6/3 2024/10/2 2025/1/31 2025/6/1 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《LPR 下调 10 基点，持续推进城市更 新》 2025-05-26 《"三问物业行业"系列报告之三—— 不谋长远者，无以图当下》 2025-05-23 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 | 图 | 1： | 全国 | 36 城商品住宅成交面积及同环比 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 4 | 座一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（北京、上海、广州、深圳） 6 | | 图 | 3： | 5 | 座新一线城市新房成交面积及同环比（杭州、武汉、成都、青岛、苏州） 6 | | 图 | 4： | 6 | 座二线城市新房成交面积及同环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The average land acquisition price in 300 cities has seen an increase in year-on-year growth rate [1] - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a narrowing decline in year-on-year comparisons as of May 30 [2][9] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has shown a narrowing year-on-year increase [54] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 256 stocks with a total market value of 2,669.6 billion and a circulating market value of 2,523.6 billion [7] Industry Index - The absolute performance over 1 month is 2.5%, while the 6-month performance is -7.4%, and the 12-month performance is 13.1% [8] New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, while the month-on-month figures are at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [9][12] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has expanded, with month-on-month figures at a lower level compared to the past five years [15][17] Land Acquisition - From January to May, the cumulative transaction area for land in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [22][26] Inventory - The inventory and de-stocking cycles for unsold properties have shown a marginal increase compared to March [33][36] Forward-Looking Indicators - As of May, the liquidity outlook indicates a widening macro-level liquidity easing [51]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 统计局 2025 年 1-4 月房地产数据点评 4 月地产基本面边际转弱，期待后续政策出台 2025 年 1-4 月，全国商品房销售额为 27035 亿元，同比-3.2%；商品房销售面积为 28262 万㎡，同比-2.8%。 4 月单月，商品房销售额 6237 亿元，同比-6.7%，降幅较 3 月扩大了 5.1 个百分点；商品房销售面积 6393 万㎡，同比-2.1%，降幅较 3 月扩大了 1.2 个百分点。 观察相对历史同期的销售规模，2025 年 4 月，商品房的销售额和销售面积分别相当于 2019 年同期的 52% 和 52%，较 3 月显著回落，逼近历史最低水平。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 优于大市 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  房地产 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 任鹤 | 010-88005315 | renhe@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040006 | | 证券分析师： | 王粤雷 | 075 ...

国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。4 月销售面积 6393 万平，同比增速-2.1%（前值：-0.9%）；开发投资金额 7826 亿元，同比增速-11.3% （前值：-10.0%）；新开工面积 4840 万平，同比增速-22.1%（前值：-18.1%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：根据房地产开发统计制度、统计执法检查等规定，对上年 同期房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积等数据进行修订，增速按可比口径计算。 核心观点 1. 商品房销售： 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 19 日 强于大市 房地产行业2025 年4 月统计局数据点评 单月销售降幅扩大；开竣工与投资均走弱 《房地产"止跌回稳"主基调不变，释放需求和化 解风险并行，传递积极信号——2025 年政府工作报 告解读》（2025/03/06） 投资建议 风险提示： 房地产调控升级；销售超预期下行；融资收紧。 《70 城新房、二手房房价环比跌幅均持平；二线城 市新房房价环比增速回正——房地产行业 2025 年 1 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评》（2025/02/20） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅" ...

房地产库存和新开工有所改善。随着房地产销售回暖，房地产企业商品房库存减少，开工建设出现改 善。数据显示，4月末，商品房待售面积比3月末继续减少，连续两个月减少。1至4月，全国房屋新开工 面积同比降幅比1至3月收窄0.6个百分点。 付凌晖指出，总的来看，在各项促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策作用下，4月份房地产市场基本稳定。从 未来看，居民对绿色、智能、安全的"好房子"需求不断扩大，老旧小区改造升级、房地产建设提质增效 前景广阔。但也要看到，当前房地产市场总体仍在调整转型过程中，刚性和改善性需求仍待进一步释 放，部分地区房地产去化压力较大，促进房地产回稳仍需要继续努力。 资讯编辑：周小燕 021-26096760 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 中国国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖19日在北京表示，4月份，中国房地产市 场基本稳定。 4月中国房地产市场交易基本稳定。付凌晖在当日国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上说，随着各项稳楼 市政策陆续落地生效，今年前4个月，房地产销售有所回稳，部分城市市场交易呈现积极变化。1至4 月，新建商品房销售面积下降2. ...