Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ななな [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, corn, live hogs, and eggs, and provides investment ratings and market trend predictions for each [1] - It also points out the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions for different agricultural products [2][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures reduced positions significantly today, and the price dropped rapidly from a high. 35,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned by Sinograin today, all sold at an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. Short - term focus on the performance of domestic soybean spot and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached 228 million bushels, a record high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, with a sowing rate of 69.0% as of November 15, behind last year's 73.8%. Concerns about the impact of La Nina on soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina. The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures continued to correct, and the basis weakened. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits, with high soybean inventory and a decline in soybean meal inventory but still in the million - ton level. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation. Consider buying on dips after stabilization [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are strong. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. The cost of imported soybeans has risen, and domestic near - end crushing profits are still poor. Soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal and palm oil. Palm oil is in a sideways shock, and its price trend may change with the improvement of supply - demand [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures oscillated weakly today, weaker than their competitors. Rapeseed products have a statistical premium, resulting in mediocre demand, especially for rapeseed meal. Australian rapeseed is expected to arrive in China soon, and the premium of rapeseed futures prices will gradually decline. The supply of domestic rapeseed products has variables, and the demand is expected to be average, with short - term pressure on futures prices [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillated and corrected today. The increase in new - season corn in Northeast China has decreased, and farmers are more reluctant to sell, with prices slightly stronger. The arrival of corn in Shandong has increased slightly, and prices are stable. The inventory of downstream corn is generally low, and the purchase price has risen with the increase in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in Northeast China. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to correct [7] Live Hogs - The near - month contract of live hog futures hit a new low, and the far - month contract followed. The spot price is relatively stable. The futures market is trading on potential future supply pressure. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low price in October is likely the first emotional bottom, and there is a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year due to supply pressure and the off - season of demand [8] Eggs - Egg futures continued to face selling pressure, with an overall increase in positions, and the February contract led the decline. The spot price of eggs across the country generally fell. Reasons include the decline of vegetable prices, the approaching delivery of the December contract, and the current high - supply and off - season - demand situation. Hold short positions in near - month contracts at high levels [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean Futures: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Palm Oil: Not clearly rated [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Live Pigs: Not clearly rated [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, etc., and provides insights into their price trends, supply - demand situations, and potential investment opportunities based on domestic and international market data and policy factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures significantly reduced positions today, with prices dropping rapidly from high levels. 35,000 tons of soybeans were auctioned by Sinograin at an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. Short - term focus is on the performance of domestic soybean spot and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached 228 million bushels, a record high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, with a sowing rate of 69.0% as of November 15, behind last year's 73.8%. The impact of La Nina on soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. Domestically, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to correct, and the basis weakened. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits. Soybean inventory remains high, and soybean meal inventory has decreased but is still in the millions. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation. Consider buying on dips after stabilization [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are performing strongly. The market is speculating on China's policy - based procurement of US soybeans and the increase in US domestic soybean crushing volume. The cost of imported soybeans has risen, and domestic near - term crushing profits are still poor. Domestic soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal and palm oil. Palm oil's short - term high - frequency data shows a weak supply - demand situation and is currently in a sideways shock. A change in palm oil price trends requires an improvement in the supply - demand situation. Short - term focus on the guidance of the oil supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed - related futures had a weak shock today, weaker than their counterparts. Rapeseed products still have a statistical premium, resulting in lackluster demand, especially for rapeseed meal. The premium of rapeseed - related futures prices is expected to gradually decline as Australian rapeseed is about to arrive in China. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand of rapeseed products is more affected by Sino - Canadian relations, but there are no significant changes currently. Domestic rapeseed supply has variables, and attention should be paid to the arrival time of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of rapeseed meal and oil. Demand is expected to be mediocre, and rapeseed - related futures prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillated and corrected today. The increase in new corn in Northeast China has decreased, and farmers' reluctance to sell has strengthened, with prices slightly stronger. The amount of corn arriving in Shandong has increased slightly, and prices are stable. The inventory of middle - and downstream corn is generally low, and the purchase price has risen with the increase in the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in Northeast China. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to correct [7] Live Pigs - The near - month live pig futures hit a new low, and the far - month contracts followed. The overall position increased by nearly 10,000 lots. The average spot price of live pigs is stable. The futures market is trading on the potential future supply pressure. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low pig price in October was likely the first emotional bottom - building. It is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottom - building in the first half of next year due to continuous supply pressure and the off - season of demand [8] Eggs - Egg futures continued to face selling pressure, and the overall position increased. The February contract led the decline. The national spot price of eggs generally decreased. Vegetable prices showed a downward trend, the December contract was approaching delivery and converging its premium to the spot, and the fundamental situation is a high - supply and off - season - demand stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month high - level contracts [9]

Core Insights - The impact of El Niño and La Niña on canola seed production varies by region, with different probabilities of yield changes based on climatic conditions during different growth stages [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10][15]. Group 1: El Niño Effects - In Canada, initial high temperatures during sowing may lead to a higher probability of reduced yield (44%), but an increase in area planted (56%) could offset this, resulting in a 67% chance of overall yield increase [1]. - Ukraine experiences dry conditions during the planting period, with a high probability of reduced yield (78%), yet an increase in area planted (56%) suggests that total production may not decline (56% chance of increase) [1]. - Australia faces high temperatures and drought during the growing season, leading to a 78% probability of reduced yield and a 67% chance of overall production decline [2]. - In Russia, some areas may experience cold conditions during the growing season, with a 63% probability of reduced area planted and a 50% chance of reduced yield [3]. - The EU is expected to face wet and hot conditions, with an 86% probability of reduced yield and a 57% chance of decreased area planted [3]. Group 2: La Niña Effects - In Canada, only a small portion of the western coastal region is affected by cold temperatures, leading to a 55% probability of reduced yield, but a 64% chance of increased area planted suggests that total production may not decline (73% chance of increase) [4]. - Australia is expected to see consistent yield increases, with an 82% probability of increased area planted and a 73% chance of increased yield [5]. - In Ukraine and the EU, there is a high probability of increased yield during the growing and harvesting periods, with Ukraine showing a 78% chance of increased yield despite a 67% probability of reduced area planted [5]. - In Russia, the harvesting period may see high temperatures, leading to a 71% probability of reduced yield, but a 100% chance of increased area planted suggests that total production may not decline (71% chance of increase) [6]. Group 3: Summary of Probabilities - Regardless of whether El Niño or La Niña occurs, Canada and Russia show higher probabilities of reduced yield, while Australia is more likely to see increased production under La Niña and reduced production under El Niño [6]. - Ukraine and the EU have a higher probability of increased yield under La Niña, while El Niño presents a higher risk of reduced yield, with Ukraine's area planted often inversely related to yield changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ななな [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: な☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ななな [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs, with insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price expectations [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean (Bean 1) - Domestic soybean futures prices are strong. Some enterprises raised soybean purchase prices last week, with high - protein soybeans having a price advantage. Due to adverse weather, domestic high - protein soybean supply is tight. The gap between domestic and imported soybeans is widening, and domestic soybean warehouse receipts are increasing. Imported US soybeans are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention on US soybean exports and South American soybean planting [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA November report showed a decrease in US new - crop soybean yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, the market had already priced in the positive expectations before the report, and the price of US soybeans dropped significantly after the report. South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the impact of La Nina on production needs attention. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, and crushing profit is poor. The strategy is to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider buying on dips [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The USDA report's positive impact is exhausted, and US soybean prices are in a sideways shock. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, waiting for South American crop performance and US soybean exports. Domestic soybean near - end crushing profit is poor, domestic soybean oil is strong, the oil - meal ratio is rising, and the soybean - palm oil spread is widening. Palm oil in Malaysia still has supply - demand pressure, and short - term supply - demand performance needs to be observed [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has declined recently due to the sharp drop in US soybeans after the USDA report. The global rapeseed production is adjusted up, and exports of some countries are also adjusted. Rapeseed products have a statistical premium over competitors, and demand is lackluster. The premium of rapeseed futures prices is expected to gradually decline, and the prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are weakly volatile. Northeast corn new - grain increment is decreasing, and the price is slightly stronger. Shandong's spot supply has increased slightly. The USDA November report on US corn is neutral to bearish, and the price has dropped. There may be further adjustments to US corn yield. The impact of China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's imported corn auction needs attention, and the Dalian corn futures 01 contract is expected to correct [7] Live Hogs - Both the spot and futures prices of live hogs are weak. After the end of the second - round fattening in October, the spot price has been falling. The near - month futures contracts are at a low valuation, and the far - month contracts are also adjusting downwards. It is expected that there may be a second bottom in hog prices in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are weakly stable, and near - month futures contracts are under pressure, hitting new lows. Vegetable prices have peaked and declined, the 12 - month contract is converging to the spot price, and the current supply is high while demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - One-star ratings (indicating a bullish or bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market): Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, eggs [1] - White-star ratings (indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach): Corn [1] - Three-star ratings (indicating a clearer bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate current investment opportunities): Not specified in the text - Other ratings (not clearly defined in the text): Soybean, palm oil, soybean oil, live pigs [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and trade policies. Different agricultural products show different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures prices are strong. High-protein soybean supply is tight due to adverse weather, and the price difference with imported soybeans is widening. The number of domestic soybean warehouse receipts is increasing. Imported soybean prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with attention on US soybean exports and South American soybean planting [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA November supply and demand report shows a decline in US new soybean production and other indicators, but the market has fully priced in the bullish expectations before the report. South American soybean planting progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the impact of La Nina. The domestic market has sufficient soybean supply and poor crushing profits. The strategy is to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The USDA report's bullish factors are exhausted, and the price is in a sideways shock. The domestic soybean oil is strong, and the oil-to-meal ratio and the soybean-palm oil price difference are increasing. Palm oil supply and demand pressure continues, and the price trend needs clear supply and demand guidance [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed series has declined recently due to the impact of the US soybean slump after the US agricultural report. The global rapeseed production has increased, and the export volume of some countries has also increased. The rapeseed series has a statistical premium, and the demand is weak. The futures price is under short-term pressure [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are weakly volatile. The increase in new corn in the Northeast has decreased, and the price is slightly stronger. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, and the domestic market needs to pay attention to the impact of the import auction and the signing of the trade agreement. The futures price is expected to wait for a pullback [7] Live Pigs - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are weak. The short-term price is under pressure, and the long-term price may form a double bottom [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is stable and weak, and the futures price of the near-month contract is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near-month contract [9]

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's November supply and demand report for U.S. soybeans did not exceed market expectations, leading to a decline in soybean prices after the report's release [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Production and Exports - The USDA adjusted the 2024/2025 soybean production forecast from 4.366 billion bushels to 4.374 billion bushels, with a slight decrease in yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre [2]. - The export forecast for the 2025/2026 season was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, reflecting a challenging export environment due to trade tensions and pricing issues compared to Brazilian soybeans [2][5]. Group 2: South American Soybean Production - Brazil's old crop production was revised upward from 169 million tons to 171.5 million tons, with exports also increased from 102.1 million tons to 103.14 million tons [3]. - Argentina's old crop production was adjusted from 50.9 million tons to 51.11 million tons, with exports increased from 7.3 million tons to 7.87 million tons [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Outlook - The total global soybean supply for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 731.5 million tons, up from 721.4 million tons the previous year, while total demand is expected to reach 609.51 million tons, compared to 598.06 million tons last year [4]. - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio is estimated at 20.01%, slightly down from 20.62% the previous year, indicating a still ample supply despite U.S. production adjustments [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term export performance for U.S. soybeans is critical, with the potential for the revised export figure of 1.635 billion bushels to be unmet due to competitive pricing from Brazil [5]. - Domestic soybean processing remains high, but the market is experiencing a near-term strong and long-term weak trend in soybean meal prices, reflecting ongoing supply dynamics [5]. Group 5: Weather and Long-term Production Factors - The current planting conditions in South America are slightly delayed, but overall production levels are expected to remain robust, with weather patterns needing to be monitored closely [6][7]. - Historical data suggests that La Niña events have negatively impacted Argentine soybean yields, with an average reduction of 0.24 tons per hectare during such events [7].

Report Investment Ratings - Douyi (Soybean): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou (Soybean Oil): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Zonglvyou (Palm Oil): ☆☆☆, also indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Doupo (Soybean Meal): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou (Rapeseed Oil): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caipo (Rapeseed Meal): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Yumi (Corn): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Shengzhu (Live Pigs): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Jidan (Eggs): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply - demand situations, price trends, and factors affecting prices, and offers corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Soybean - Domestic soybeans have seen a significant increase in positions and a strong price rise. Some enterprises have raised purchase prices, and the gap with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture report for imported soybeans [2] - US soybeans have hit recent highs, and domestic soybeans are in a situation of sufficient supply and poor crushing profits. South American new - season soybean planting progress is slow, and the impact of La Nina on production needs attention. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil prices are falling, with the soybean - palm oil price difference widening. The high inventory of Malaysian palm oil needs attention, and the supply - demand situation in November will guide price trends. The loss of near - end import soybean crushing profit supports soybean oil prices [4] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal futures contract M2601 has risen following the increase in US soybeans. The current supply of soybeans is sufficient, and inventories are at a relatively high level. Strategies should focus on the opportunity to go long after the easing of Sino - US trade relations [3] Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic rapeseed - related futures have declined slightly, and market sentiment is cautious before the release of the US agricultural supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, with inventory declining. The Canadian biofuel incentive plan affects rapeseed prices, and attention should be paid to Australian and Canadian rapeseed situations [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract is oscillating at a high level. Farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell, and the overall grain - selling progress is slow. The supply in Shandong is tight. The rebound height is expected to be limited, and the 01 contract is waiting for a correction [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market is weakly adjusting with reduced positions. The overall average selling price has little change. Pay attention to the impact of demand changes on slaughter volume after the temperature drop in the North. The market is expected to have a double - bottom pattern in the long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significantly reduced positions and prices have dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the spot logic of high production capacity, large supply pressure, and off - season demand. Hold short positions established at the previous high [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are in short - term high - level oscillations. Pig prices are weak due to loose supply and demand. Natural rubber may have a pulse upward movement, and synthetic rubber will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Cotton prices decline slightly, sugar prices fluctuate narrowly, pulp is dominated by capital with the long - side advantage unchanged, double - offset paper will stabilize in November, and logs are in a destocking cycle and oscillate [1][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance. - **Logic**: The US soybean market is waiting for the clarity of export demand. The US federal government may resume operation this week, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The USDA will release a report on Friday. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and there is a possibility of a decrease in yield per unit. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress lags behind last year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil production and exports have declined in November, and Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but future supply is expected to increase [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate, and rapeseed oil will oscillate strongly. The positive driving factors in the vegetable oil market include tight domestic rapeseed supply, declining rapeseed oil inventory, the palm oil production - reduction season, and rising domestic soybean import costs [2][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: US soybeans are testing the upper pressure level, and the reverse spread of Dalian soybean meal should be held. - **Logic**: The USDA will release a supply - and - demand report on November 15. The market expects a possible decrease in US soybean yield per unit. China's purchase of US soybeans has been digested, and the premium of US soybeans has loosened. Brazilian soybean exports are seasonally decreasing, but exports to China in November are expected to increase year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal in oil mills is slow in the short term, and downstream inventory has decreased. In the medium term, the purchase of December shipments is advancing, but the January import is still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips, not chase after highs, and sell near - term contracts and buy far - term contracts [9]. 3. Corn and Starch - **View**: The market is in a stage of tight supply, and prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are rising, with low arrival volume. The cold weather has increased farmers' reluctance to sell. The demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the railway freight adjustment has increased the trading cost. The central reserve grain rotation is ongoing. In the fourth quarter, there is pressure on spot prices due to the new - grain listing [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate strongly. There may be an opportunity to short when the price rebounds to around 2200 [11]. 4. Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of live - weight pigs for slaughter is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. The ratio of meat to pig price has increased, the average slaughter weight has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has increased [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse - spread strategy [12]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: With the approaching expiration of the 11 - contract, attention should be paid to the possible pulse upward movement. - **Logic**: The rubber futures market rose slightly yesterday, which may be related to the upcoming expiration of the RU11 contract. The supply in overseas production areas is affected by the weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. Seasonally, without strong expectations and macro - driving factors, rubber prices may face downward pressure [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating and high - elasticity trend. Attention should be paid to widening the spread between RU and NR [14]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The raw - material trading is stable, and the futures market rebounds strongly. - **Logic**: The BR futures market rebounded strongly yesterday due to the good trading of butadiene in recent days. The price of butadiene stopped falling and consolidated this week. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Given the large pressure on the fundamentals and raw - material side, it is recommended to short on rallies before the obvious supply - and - demand contradiction of butadiene appears [16]. 7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices decline slightly. - **Logic**: The positive factors in the cotton market have been digested, and the expected increase in supply and the peak - season listing of new cotton have brought downward pressure on prices. The cost of new cotton provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 - contract will oscillate within a range. In the long term, the cotton market may destock, driving prices upward [16]. 8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the focus of sugar supply has shifted from Brazil to the Northern Hemisphere. New - season sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and the tightening of import policies supports the domestic market, but the increase in supply during the peak - production period will bring downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, prices will oscillate weakly. In the short term, prices will fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The futures market is dominated by capital, and the long - side advantage remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The futures market is oscillating at a high level, and the long - side funds are dominant. The positive factors include the rise in packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, the good production - and - sales expectations of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, the disturbance of warehouse - receipt issues, and weak downstream consumption [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate. The spot market is dominated by warehouse - receipt and weak - supply - and - demand factors, while the futures market is driven by capital. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 10. Double - Offset Paper - **View**: November is the tender peak season, and prices will stabilize in an oscillating manner. - **Logic**: In November, supported by the tender season and cost pressure, paper mills are strongly willing to support prices, and the market may stop falling and rebound. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market. In the first quarter of 2026, the market will enter a stage of narrow - amplitude oscillation [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - offset paper is starting, and prices will stop falling and stabilize [19]. 11. Logs - **View**: Logs are in a destocking cycle and will oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short term, the increase in shipments from New Zealand will lead to an increase in arrivals in December, and the import pressure will ease seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, there is still supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a small increase in inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter and a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The real - estate industry cannot strongly drive the demand for logs, and prices will oscillate weakly around the cost line [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weakening, and spot prices are under pressure, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import cost of soybeans is expected to fluctuate. Although there are signals of China importing US soybeans, the rise in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premium. In the short - term, domestic soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the profit from oil - mill crushing is expected to recover, which will stimulate soybean purchases. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, so it is advisable to sell on rebounds [10][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: In October, US soybeans rebounded as the market anticipated China's purchase after the APEC meeting. Brazilian new - crop soybeans are being planted normally, with an expected planting progress of 50% by early November. The Brazilian premium has been decreasing, but the increase in US soybean prices has led to a slight rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China. Currently, the cost - side valuation is neutral, and the import cost is expected to fluctuate [10] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: In October, the domestic soybean meal spot price followed the futures price higher, and the basis weakened. The futures price increased with the cost, and the oil - mill crushing profit on the futures market recovered after reaching the bottom. Domestic soybean meal trading was average, but the pick - up volume was relatively high. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The current soybean purchase schedule indicates a continuous decline in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, which provides some support for the domestic soybean - related basis [10] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to fluctuate. In the short - term, soybean meal may rise with the import cost, and the profit from crushing will recover, stimulating purchases. In the medium - term, due to the expected loose global soybean supply, it is recommended to sell on rebounds. No specific strategy is provided for arbitrage [12] 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report provides historical price charts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong, including the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Huangpu [19] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Charts of the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract are presented, showing the relationship between the basis and the spot price [22] - **Spread**: Multiple spread charts are provided, such as the spread between soybean meal 11 - 1, 01 - 05, 03 - 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 contracts [24] - **Fund Position**: Charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal management funds are shown, along with the relationship between the net long positions and the futures closing prices [27][29] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate are presented [33] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report provides precipitation charts of US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [36][37] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Multiple charts are provided, including the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume of US soybeans to China [50] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Charts of monthly soybean and rapeseed import volumes and forecasts are presented [53] - **China's Oil - Mill Crushing**: Charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills are provided [55] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills are presented [59] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills are provided [62] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas are presented [64] 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption**: Charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal are presented [66] - **Breeding Profit**: Charts of the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the oil and fat market has improved, and it is waiting for the fermentation of bullish factors. The protein meal market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The corn/starch market has shown stable to weak spot prices and an increase in positions on the futures market. The hog market is experiencing price fluctuations due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The natural rubber market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The synthetic rubber market has seen a temporary improvement in sentiment as raw material prices have stabilized. The cotton market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The sugar market is testing its lower support in the short term. The pulp market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The double - glue paper market has strengthened following the pulp market. The log market is oscillating at the bottom [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment has improved, waiting for bullish factors to ferment. The outlook is that palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil will oscillate. - **Logic**: Optimistic trade sentiment led to the rise of US soybeans on Wednesday, and domestic oils stopped falling and rose yesterday, with palm and rapeseed oils being relatively strong. The US government is in a "shutdown," and the market doubts the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly. From an industrial perspective, US soybean data updates are suspended. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and the market expects a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield. China's tariff adjustment policy boosts the export demand for US soybeans. Brazilian soybean planting is going smoothly. The arrival of imported soybeans in China may be at a relatively high level, and the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, and the probability of inventory accumulation is high. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low due to increased consumption in biodiesel. India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. With the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to increase [2][6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are oscillating at a high level, and the positive impact of China's purchases has been gradually digested. Attention should be paid to the US soybean yield and the growth of South American soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased, but the discount is more favorable than that of the US. Brazilian soybeans will enter a critical growth period in November, and the impact of La Nina should be monitored. CBOT US soybeans are approaching a reasonable valuation, and new bullish factors are needed for an upward movement. Domestically, in the short term, the import and crushing profit of the January futures contract is still in the red, and profit margins need to be provided to stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the quantity of China's US soybean purchases will be gradually realized. The South American weather and the strength of the fourth - quarter consumption season will determine the upward potential of soybean meal. In the long term, there is expected to be no gap in soybean supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot prices are stable to weak, and the futures market has increased positions and risen. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable with local fluctuations. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as the temperature drops, and the supply pressure has eased. However, there are bottlenecks in transportation capacity, leading to increased freight costs and a slow - to - resolve shortage in the sales area. In November, the market is still under the pressure of new grain listing. The expected increase in production in the Northeast will drag down prices. Feed - using enterprises are mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force for prices before large - scale inventory building occurs [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices are oscillating. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The supply and demand are loose, but farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices after the price weakens has led to a low - level oscillation of hog prices. In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of sows capable of reproduction was at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased from January to September. It is expected that the hog slaughter volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has started to decline. With the dual drivers of "policy + losses," the reduction of sow production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026. The demand has increased slightly as the temperature drops. Group farms are actively selling, and the average weight has decreased. The enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The rebound of the natural rubber market is in line with the rebound rhythm of commodities. The fundamental situation can provide some bottom support. The RU warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled, and the new rubber registration progress is slow, with a lower valuation compared to NR. The import pressure in November may be relatively large, which will put pressure on the upside of NR. The short - term spread between RU and NR may be repaired. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no further macro - driving force, the rubber price may face downward adjustment pressure. However, as it enters November, there may still be room for speculation about domestic rubber - cutting suspension and RU warehouse receipts, so the downside space is relatively limited [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and sentiment has temporarily improved. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The BR main contract has switched to the January contract and continued to rebound, returning to the level before Tuesday's decline. The improvement in sentiment is due to the better trading volume and temporary stabilization of butadiene prices, along with a strong rebound in the overall commodity market. The price of butadiene dropped rapidly last week to a record low this year. The supply - demand contradiction in the market has intensified, and the cautious attitude of downstream buyers has led to poor trading volume. Although the downstream buyers have gradually entered the market after the price dropped to a low level, and the supply side of butadiene intends to stop the price decline, buyers are still cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the improvement in trading sentiment can continue to support the butadiene price. In the medium term, the supply - demand of butadiene will remain in surplus in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may decline further [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The short - term outlook is for the January contract to oscillate within a range, and the long - term outlook is for a bullish oscillation. - **Logic**: The increase in the new - season Xinjiang cotton production is less than expected, and the purchase cost has increased, which supported the cotton price to oscillate strongly in October. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the reduction of import tariffs on US cotton are expected to promote US cotton exports to China and China's textile exports next year, but the short - term impact is limited. With the listing of new cotton, the supply has increased, and the cotton price is under pressure. At the same time, the profit from hedging has gradually emerged, and there is hedging pressure on the upside of the cotton price. The upper pressure on the January contract is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The market is testing its lower support in the short term. The long - term outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak of Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased, which may marginally improve the loose international trade flow. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has increased slightly year - on - year, and the market's expectation of Brazil's production increase has not changed. Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan have increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import controls on syrups and premixes and the expected exhaustion of import licenses have made the domestic market relatively strong, there is still downward pressure on the domestic market as the southern sugar enters the peak crushing season [14][15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The recent rise is due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper driven by the increase in packaging paper prices and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper, as well as the increase in wood chip prices. From a medium - term perspective, the previously traded bearish factors have not completely ended. Although the bullish factors in downstream demand may bring short - term bullishness, the upward space is expected to be limited. On the fundamental side, the demand for softwood pulp has been low due to formula adjustments in recent years. There is export pressure from overseas to China, and the import price in US dollars remains weak. The hardwood pulp market has an obvious surplus situation. Although the demand has increased seasonally, it is difficult to support the price above the production cost. The futures main contract price is approaching the prices of some brands, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium under the weak supply - demand background. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts this year will also put pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some bullish factors, such as the obvious increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected marginal improvement in cultural paper demand in November and December. The paper pulp futures market is inclined to a wait - and - see attitude [16]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The market has strengthened following the pulp market. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The price of double - glue paper in Shandong has remained stable. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption - side support is insufficient. The supply - demand relationship is still weak, and the support from wood pulp is limited. The new production facilities are operating stably, and the paper supply surplus is still severe. The demand side has seen the start of publishing tenders, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the overall downstream consumption is still weak. Some factories are facing greater production and sales pressure. Although some paper enterprises have announced price increase plans in early November, the market is waiting and seeing, and most prices will remain stable at the end - of - month settlement. The publishing tenders have not yet started intensively, and the demand side has no obvious positive factors. The upstream wood pulp price is under pressure, and the cost support for double - glue paper is limited. The price of double - glue paper is expected to stabilize [17]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The market is oscillating at the bottom. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The log market has remained weak and stable this week. On the one hand, traders are actively selling, and the decline in the sales volume of laminated wood has put pressure on the price of sawn timber, leading to downward pressure on the spot market. On the other hand, New Zealand log suppliers have adjusted their quotes, and there will be a greater pressure of blue - stained timber on the arrival of ships in the future, which will also put pressure on the spot market. The log peak season is gradually ending, and the port outbound volume will decline. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, the log inventory may accumulate again. Although the market has a short - term bearish sentiment, the log valuation is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited. The speculative side is advised to wait and see [19].