XTB分析师Hani Abuagla在报告中称，如果美国第三季经济成长数据逊于预期，美元将非常脆弱。任何 经济降温的迹象都可能强化美联储明年进一步降息的预期，从而拉低收益率，进一步削弱美元。年末流 动性的减少以及近期全球货币政策的变化，可能会加剧这种敏感性。特别是日本央行最近的加息可能会 鼓励资本流入日元，如果美国经济数据令人失望，将进一步打压美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The market situation of various agricultural products and energy commodities is complex. The production of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and its export volume shows different trends according to different institutions' data. The soybean production and export in the Americas are affected by weather and market demand. The domestic trading volume and inventory of agricultural products also show different changes, and the macro - economic situation at home and abroad has an impact on the market [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of multiple commodities are presented, including BMD's March palm oil futures (4016.00, up 2.07% the previous day and 0.73% overnight), ICE's March Brent crude oil futures (61.54, up 2.36% the previous day and 0.31% overnight), and NYMEX's February US crude oil futures (57.95, up 2.49% the previous day and 0.29% overnight) [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are also provided, such as the US dollar index (98.29, down 0.42%), and the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar (7.0572, up 0.03%) [1]. Spot Market Quotes - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil 2601, soybean oil 2605, and soybean meal 2605 in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8420, with a basis of 110 and no change in basis overnight [2]. - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 149 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 444 dollars per ton [2]. Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - The weather conditions in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are favorable or continuously improving. There will be sporadic showers in some states before Tuesday, and the overall soil moisture is improving [3]. - In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, most areas have suitable soil humidity for soybean growth after a frontal passage brought widespread rainfall last weekend [3]. International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with a 6.26% decline in fresh fruit bunch yield per unit and a 0.17% decrease in oil extraction rate [5]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 show different trends. AmSpec reported a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month, while SGS reported a 43.6% increase [5][6]. - The MPOC expects that the Malaysian palm oil market will stabilize in 2026, with exports increasing to 16.2 million tons and production growing moderately to 19.7 million tons [6]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in November decreased by 13.4% month - on - month to 1.748 million tons [7]. - USDA data shows that the US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 18, 2025, was 870,199 tons, in line with expectations [7]. - USDA export sales reports for the week ending December 4 show that US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil have different export sales and shipment situations. For example, US soybean export sales increased by 40% compared to the previous week, and the export shipment increased by 33% [8]. - Analysts expect that in the week ending December 11, US soybean export sales will net increase by 1.8 - 2.9 million tons, soybean meal by 275,000 - 550,000 tons, and soybean oil by 500 - 24,000 tons [9][10]. - As of December 20, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.6%, and AgRural expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 180.4 million tons [10]. - Brazil exported 2,442,367.61 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of December, with an average daily export volume 70% higher than that of the whole month of December last year [11]. - The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Monday, with all ship - type freight indices weakening [11]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 22, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 68,700 tons, a 304% increase from the previous trading day [13]. - On December 22, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased by 40,600 tons compared to the previous day, and the overall oil mill operating rate was 55.88%, a 0.16% decrease from the previous day [13]. - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 700,000 tons, a 7.25% increase from the previous week, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a 1.22% decrease from the previous week [13]. - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a 52.25% month - on - month increase; soybean imports were 8.10736476 million tons, a 14.50% month - on - month decrease [14]. - On December 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased slightly compared to last Friday [16]. Macroeconomic News International News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1% [18]. - The US Chicago Fed National Activity Index in November was - 0.21, lower than the expected - 0.17 [18]. - A former Bank of Japan board member said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times to 1.5% during the remaining term of Governor Ueda Kazuo until early 2028 [18]. Domestic News - On December 22, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0572, up 22 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [20]. - On December 22, the People's Bank of China conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [20]. Market Capital Flow On December 22, 2025, the net inflow of funds into the futures market was 17.854 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 17.605 billion yuan into the commodity futures market and a net outflow of 14 million yuan from stock index futures and 30 million yuan from treasury bond futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - range - bound [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - short - term trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell on rallies [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading; Aluminum - strengthen observation; Nickel - observe or sell on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - hold long positions, be cautious on new positions; Lithium carbonate - bullish range - bound [1][11][12] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - range trading at low levels; Caustic soda - temporary observation; Soda ash - temporary observation; Styrene - range trading; Rubber - range trading; Urea - range trading; Methanol - range trading; Polyolefins - bearish range - bound [1][18][20] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - bullish range - bound; PTA - bullish range - upward; Apple - bearish range - bound; Jujube - bearish range - bound [1][26][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs - short - term short on rallies for near - month contracts, cautiously bullish for far - month contracts; Eggs - range - bound; Corn - short - term cautious on chasing highs, hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; Soybean meal - bullish on dips for near - month contracts, bearish for far - month contracts; Oils - close long positions gradually [1][32][35] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the Fed chair controversy, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, the market has a fast - rotating main line. After the end of recent positive and negative meeting supports, index futures may range - bound. Medium to long - term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With the upcoming release of China's loan prime rate and the need to monitor the end - of - year fluctuations in the liability side of broad - based funds, treasury bonds are expected to range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: There is a game between strong bearish realities (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and weak marginal supports. The short - term balance of power between bulls and bears suggests short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: After the major meetings, the market is in a policy vacuum. Although there are expectations of weakening steel exports next year, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, so range trading is recommended [9] - **Glass**: With factors such as stable supply at the end of the year, weak demand, and the fermentation of supply - increase expectations for soda ash, the glass market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival, and selling on rallies is advised [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight, but factors like year - end capital tightness and high copper prices suppressing demand limit the upside. Copper is expected to range - bound at high levels [11] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and LME aluminum breaks through the resistance level, the fundamentals are still weak. Aluminum is expected to range - bound at high levels, and strengthening observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply surplus continues. With the uncertainty of the new RKAB policy on nickel ore supply, it is advisable to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be bullish range - bound, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold move up. Hold long positions for silver and trade in ranges for gold [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and the risk of Yichun's mining permits, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be bullish range - bound [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to range - bound at low levels, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [18] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as high inventory, alumina production cuts, and winter high -开工 of chlor - alkali enterprises, it is recommended to observe temporarily [20] - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the geopolitical situation of crude oil, the accumulation of pure benzene inventory, and the limited rebound space of styrene, it is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [20] - **Rubber**: With the end of the domestic production season, the overseas peak - production season, high inventory in Qingdao ports, and weak tire production, rubber is expected to range - bound [22] - **Urea**: With the decrease in the start - up rate, the weakening of agricultural demand, and the increase in industrial demand, urea is expected to range - bound weakly [23] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of methanol - to - olefins start - up rate, and the weak traditional demand, methanol is expected to range - bound, and attention should be paid to Iran's situation [25] - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, PE is expected to be bearish range - bound, and PP is expected to range - bound within a certain range [25] - **Soda Ash**: With supply surplus, rising costs, and the reduction of supply contraction, it is recommended to observe temporarily [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations, cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish range - bound [26] - **PTA**: Affected by the geopolitical situation of crude oil and the supply - demand de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in a range [28] - **Apple and Jujube**: With stable market prices, slow inventory movement, and weak trading atmosphere, apple and jujube are expected to be bearish range - bound [28][30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: In the short - term, the pig price is affected by factors such as consumption changes and the slaughter rhythm. In the long - term, it is affected by capacity reduction. Near - month contracts can be shorted on rallies, and far - month contracts are cautiously bullish [32] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is range - bound. In the medium - term, the supply pressure eases marginally. In the long - term, the capacity clearance takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [33] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is selling pressure, and it is necessary to be cautious on chasing highs. In the long - term, the demand recovers, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to policies and weather [34] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - month contracts are bullish on dips, and far - month contracts are bearish. Spot enterprises can price basis contracts or transfer positions [35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, oils have a sign of stopping falling, and long positions should be closed gradually. In the long - term, they may turn bullish [40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Japanese economy, suggesting a shift from extreme monetary easing to a neutral interest rate, with expectations of further policy adjustments in the future [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, with inflation nearing the 2% target, prompting the Bank of Japan to end its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][4]. - The market has largely priced in the December interest rate hike, and the yen depreciated post-hike, but concerns about the Bank of Japan lagging behind have been alleviated [1][4]. - The government's proactive fiscal expansion policy, while increasing debt pressure, is deemed manageable without triggering systemic shocks [1][4][6]. - The likelihood of significant market disruption from the interest rate hike is low due to effective communication from the Bank of Japan and the distinct nature of this rate hike compared to previous instances [1][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy - Japan's potential economic growth is expected to remain above 0.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus measures projected to boost GDP by approximately 0.3% in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - Core inflation is anticipated to gradually rise back to near 2%, despite a potential temporary dip below this threshold in early 2026 [2][4][7]. Market Reactions and Financial Institutions - The banking sector has outperformed the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, benefiting from improved core profitability and low credit costs, despite facing unrealized losses from rising bond yields [2][21]. - Japanese financial institutions are expected to manage risks effectively, reducing the likelihood of systemic risks despite holding significant amounts of government bonds [6][19]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The new government's fiscal policy is characterized as "active but responsible," focusing on balancing economic growth with debt sustainability [18][15]. - Short-term interest payment pressures are manageable, but long-term risks are significant, with projections indicating that new interest payments could match current social security expenditures by 2034 [16][13]. Global Market Implications - The interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is expected to have a controlled impact on both the domestic financial system and global markets, with particular attention on the divergence between Japan's monetary policy and anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2026 [23][24]. - The potential for Japanese institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries and repatriate funds is limited due to varying investment strategies among different types of institutions [11][12].

来源：新华财经 日本央行前货币政策委员樱井诚预计，日本央行下一次加息至1%的时间窗口可能在明年6月或7月左 右，但具体时点将取决于经济表现、薪资增长以及通胀走势。他同时指出，此后进一步加息或将面临更 大挑战，因为利率将逐步接近中性水平，尽管日本央行尚未明确该数值。樱井诚认为，日本央行内部很 可能将1.75%视为当前对中性利率的估算水平。若此判断成立，那么加息至1.50%或为目标。他强调， 日本央行可能希望以大约每六个月一次的节奏加息，但正日益担忧来自政府的政治压力。他认为，这或 许正是行长植田和男近期在沟通中保持模糊立场的原因。 转自：北京日报客户端 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that there is no need for interest rate adjustments in the coming months after three consecutive rate cuts by the Fed [1][7] - Hammack emphasized that the current benchmark interest rate of 3.5% to 3.75% can be maintained until clearer evidence of inflation returning to target levels or significant weakness in the job market is observed [1][7] - She noted that the recent inflation data for November may underestimate the price increases over the past year due to distortions caused by the government shutdown in October and early November [1][7] Group 2: Canadian Retail Sales - As the holiday season approaches, Canadian retail sales are expected to rebound, with November sales projected to increase by 1.2% compared to October, marking the strongest growth since June [2][8] - October retail sales had decreased by 0.2%, adjusted for seasonality, amounting to 69.44 billion CAD, approximately 50.39 billion USD [2][8] - The forecast for November is based on responses from 60% of surveyed retailers and will be revised, indicating a strong start for retailers during a critical sales period, including Black Friday [2][8] Group 3: Market Movements - Gold prices experienced slight gains due to ongoing expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and increased market risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions [4][9] - The USD/JPY pair surged past the 157.00 mark, reaching a four-week high, supported by a cooling expectation for further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [5][10] - The USD/CAD pair also saw an upward trend, reaching a six-day high, influenced by a rebound in the USD index and weak economic data from Canada [6][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have significantly risen, with London gold surpassing $4,400 and New York futures exceeding $4,430, entering a new high-stakes trading phase [2] - Key factors supporting gold prices include weak employment and inflation data, which have increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next year [2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving funds into gold as a safe haven, while global central bank gold purchases and inflows into gold ETFs provide long-term support [2] Group 2 - Short-term factors that may suppress gold price increases include the risk of short-term chasing after consecutive gains, leading to potential profit-taking by some investors [2] - The possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates could prompt a global capital return, posing potential pressure on assets including gold [2] - The recommended trading strategy involves waiting for a price pullback to the $4,380-$4,360 support area before considering entry, with specific stop-loss levels set [3]

Group 1: UK Economic Outlook - The UK economy shows slight improvement with a Q3 GDP growth of 0.1%, and corporate investment data revised from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 1.5% [1] - Despite a decline in real household income, consumer spending willingness has strengthened, with household savings rate dropping from 10.2% in Q2 to 9.5% in Q3, the lowest in over a year [1] - Overall, the data remains lagging and does not alter the forecast of a slowdown in GDP growth in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: US CPI and Commodity Prices - The US November CPI fell more than expected, leading to revised market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, boosting prices of precious metals like gold and silver [2] - Gold prices have surged above $4,400 per ounce, with potential for further increases if it stabilizes above this level, although challenges may arise from central banks shifting from rate cuts to hikes [2] - Seasonal liquidity during the Christmas holiday may amplify current price increases, with December and January historically being strong months for gold [2] Group 3: German Automotive Exports - German automotive exports to the US fell nearly 14% in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly impacted by Trump's trade policies [3] - The engineering sector also faced challenges, with exports to the US down 9.5%, and the chemical industry experiencing a similar decline [3] - Overall, German exports to the US decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, contrasting with an average growth of about 5% from 2016 to 2024 [3] Group 4: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, with predictions of two rate hikes in 2026 [3] - The potential for foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities is being closely monitored, although specific intervention levels remain uncertain [4] Group 5: Argentine Foreign Direct Investment - Argentina's foreign direct investment has seen a negative growth for the first time in 22 years, with a reported outflow of $1.52 billion from January to November 2025 [5] - The decline is attributed to multinational companies exiting the Argentine market or selling their local operations, driven by high inflation and currency volatility [5] - The exit of numerous multinational firms since December 2023 reflects a lack of confidence in Argentina's macroeconomic stability [5]

锌周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海外加速交仓 锌价承压震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价承压回落。宏观面，美国 11 月非农数据 喜忧参半，通胀数据低于预期，且美联储官员释放鸽派信号， 降息预期略有提升。国内 11 月经济数据延续偏弱，市场期 待政策加码助力 26 年经济实现开门红。 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 风险因素：宏观风险扰动，炼厂减产低于预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，LME 将从 26 年 7 月实施持仓限额，LME 加速交仓， 库存回升至近 10 万吨，且 LME0-3 现货由前期高升水转为小 贴水，挤仓担忧快速降温，内外锌价均有回落。不过沪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads. It also covers macro - and industry - related news [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products showed different trends. For example, Comex gold 2602 had a 0.11% increase, while Shanghai gold 2602 had a - 0.06% decrease. Comex silver 2602 rose by 2.97%, and Shanghai silver 2602 fell by 0.93% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of different gold and silver contracts also changed compared to the previous day. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 87,762, and its position decreased by 7,090 [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,052.54, and the SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 48 to 16,066.24 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold and silver in different markets also had changes. For example, the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before yesterday) increased by 78,815 to 36,070,160, and the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 12,528 to 899,636 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and products also changed. For example, the spread between gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged at - 4.08, and the spread between silver T + D and AG2602 increased by 1 to 58 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is reported to have performed "excellently" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives, while Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [1][4]. - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgent need for further interest - rate cuts, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said it would continue to raise rates if the economic and price outlook is achieved. The yen fell more than 1% during trading, and traders bet that the next rate hike may be in September next year [4]. - The Ukrainian delegation held a series of meetings with the US and Europe from Friday to Sunday, and the US envoy said the meetings were "productive." Zelensky said the US proposed a tri - party meeting between Ukraine, Russia, and the US [4]. - The US intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuelan waters [4]. - The State Council executive meeting emphasized taking proactive measures to ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [4]. - The Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly took action to deal with accounts spreading rumors and providing illegal stock - recommendation services [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].