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广发期货原木期货日报-20250509
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 07:25
原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 780.0 | 792.5 | -12.5 | -1.58% | | | 原木2509 | 794.5 | 803.0 | -8.5 | -1.06% | | | 原木2511 | 800.5 | 808.0 | -7.5 | -0.93% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -20.0 | -32.5 | 12.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -43.0 | 8.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -48.0 | 7.5 | | | | 日 ...
供强需弱 红枣期价或继续探底
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-09 01:07
红枣属于季产年销品种,需求跟随价格变动弹性较大。2024/2025年度红枣大幅丰产,供应充足,为红 枣价格的持续下行奠定基础。 新季红枣上市初始,枣农挺价惜售,但受限于下游承接力较弱,销量及利润不佳,买卖双方互相博弈。 叠加红枣下树时间较晚,销售期缩短使得枣农挺价心态被削弱,开秤价高开低走,期货价格也随之不断 下行。 直到春节旺季,红枣消费增加,使得价格出现反弹。然而,今年的旺季较去年缩短20天,因此对价格的 提振幅度有限。春节后红枣消费逐步进入淡季,且随着天气转暖,红枣进入冷库的时间逼近,一般货价 格开始松动,期货价格继续震荡寻底。4月,中美贸易摩擦升级,但我国红枣出口极少,价格走势主要 取决于自身供需面,因此受宏观扰动影响小。当前,红枣市场供应压力持续加大,销区消费较弱,且随 着温度升高,时令鲜果供应不断增加,进一步抑制红枣需求。供强需弱下,期货价格继续探底。 从供给端来看,2024/2025年度新疆灰枣产量达70万吨,与去年相比增加37万吨。观察历年数据可知, 当灰枣产量处于60万~65万吨时已属于丰产季,而2024/2025年度高达70万吨的产量无疑进一步加剧市 场的供应压力。 此外,天气因素对新季红 ...
广发期货原木期货日报-20250507
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 06:15
原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月2日 | 2555 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 789.5 | 788.5 | 1.0 | 0.13% | | | 原木2509 | 801.0 | 804.0 | -3.0 | -0.37% | | | 原木2511 | 806.0 | 807.5 | -1.5 | -0.19% | | | 7-9价差 | -11.5 | -15.5 | 4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.0 | -3.5 | -1.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -16.5 | -19.0 | 2.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -19.5 | -18.5 | -1.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -31.0 | -34.0 | 3.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -36.0 | -37.5 | 1.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9 ...
棕榈油:短期偏弱,下方有支撑,豆油:震荡寻底,品种间偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:55
Report Date - The report is dated May 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The report provides an analysis of the soybean oil and palm oil markets, stating that soybean oil is in a process of bottom - seeking with oscillations and is relatively strong among varieties, while palm oil is short - term weak with support below [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,974 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.14%, closing price (night session) is 7,912 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.78%. Trading volume is 549,475 lots, an increase of 45,312 lots, and open interest is 367,565 lots, an increase of 20,597 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 7,760 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.92%, closing price (night session) is 7,746 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18%. Trading volume is 299,059 lots, an increase of 12,309 lots, and open interest is 583,917 lots, an increase of 1,935 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,216 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.87%, closing price (night session) is 9,236 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%. Trading volume is 299,742 lots, an increase of 9,457 lots, and open interest is 280,976 lots, an increase of 4,397 lots [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 646 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot basis is 380 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot basis is 54 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 1,242 yuan/ton, compared to 1,149 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 214 yuan/ton, compared to - 316 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: 456 yuan/ton, compared to 468 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 140 yuan/ton, compared to 150 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 24 yuan/ton, compared to 9 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - In Myanmar, the wholesale reference price of palm oil in the Yangon market dropped from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week (April 28 - May 4) to 6,700 kyats per viss as of the week ending May 11. The Ministry of Commerce is taking measures to control prices. Myanmar's annual palm oil consumption is about 1 million tons, local production is about 400,000 tons, and it imports about 700,000 tons from Malaysia and Indonesia [3][4] - As of the week ending May 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.16 per bushel, a 5.3% decline from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [4] - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season starting in September. The current - season soybean planting area reached a record 47.8 million hectares, and the harvest was 172.1 million tons [4] - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, was 623.09 reais/ton, down from 643.31 reais/ton the previous week [5] - As of May 4, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.43 million tons (compared to 2.96 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 11.73 million tons (compared to 10.92 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 5.68 million tons (higher than 5 million tons last year) [5] - In 2024, Germany produced about 3.6 million tons of biodiesel, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. Over half of the raw materials came from rapeseed, and about 1.45 million tons of rapeseed oil was processed into biodiesel, approximately equivalent to the 2024 rapeseed harvest [6] 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]
PVC:价格低位运行 库存持续下降
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 05:23
【4 月 28 日 PVC 期货价格低位运行,现货市场稳中略涨】4 月 28 日,PVC 期货价格维持低位,V2509 报收 4989 元/吨,涨 0.28%,成交量 72 万手,环比提高 10 万手,持仓量 91 万手,环比下降 3 万手。 现货方面,华东地区电石法 PVC 五型报价在 4740 - 4860 元/吨,贸易商出货清淡,下游制品企业拿货 以刚需低价为主且存观望情绪。 成本方面,近期部分电石装置检修,五一假期临近下游企业备货积 极,电石价格触底反弹,4 月 28 日内蒙古乌海地区电石价格为 2500 元/吨,环比提高 50 元/吨。 供应 方面,上周部分 PVC 装置恢复运行,行业供应小幅回升,截至 4 月 25 日,PVC 行业周度开工率为 78.63%,环比提高 1.28 个百分点,周度产量为 45.94 万吨,环比提高 0.75 万吨,增幅 1.66%,PVC 行 业集中检修期延续,检修力度放缓。 需求方面,上周 PVC 价格再跌刺激部分投机需求,截至 4 月 25 日,PVC 生产企业周度预售订单量为 60.2 万吨,环比提高 6.02%,临近五一假期,下游制品企业放假 预期增多,截至 ...
《金融》日报-2025-04-02
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 06:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and industrial futures, such as prices, spreads, and related economic indicators, to help investors understand market trends and price movements [1][2][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread - **Price Difference Data**: Provides price differences and their changes for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads, along with historical percentile data [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., and their historical percentile data [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis and IRR**: Displays basis and IRR data for TS, TF, T, and TL treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Provides inter - period spreads for different maturities of TS, TF, T, and TL futures, and their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., and their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures and Spot - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and price change rates for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Provides basis data for gold and silver, as well as price ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver, and their historical percentiles [4]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Displays data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventory and position data for gold and silver [4]. Industrial Futures and Spot - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes for shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route and their changes and price change rates [7]. - **Shipping Indexes**: Displays settlement price indexes for shipping routes, Shanghai export container freight rates, and their changes and price change rates [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and their changes and price change rates for EC contracts, as well as basis data for the main contract [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, Red Sea detour situation, foreign trade - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD composite leading indicators [7]. Data and Information Calendar - **Overseas Data/Information**: Lists macro - economic data and energy - chemical data for the US, including time, data sources, and economic indicators [9]. - **Domestic Data/Information**: Presents data on energy - chemical, black - nonferrous, and special commodities in China, including time, data sources, and economic indicators [9].
原木期货日报-2025-03-31
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-03-31 07:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of logs remains, and the overall demand is under pressure, with spot prices continuously decreasing. The current valuation of the log futures is moderately low, and the possibility of a deep decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 820 - 860 yuan per cubic meter. Attention should be paid to information related to log futures delivery on April 1st [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on March 28th compared to March 27th, with declines of -0.48%, -0.41%, and -0.94% respectively. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased, and the spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts changed. Spot prices of most log varieties in ports remained stable, while some in Taicang Port decreased [2] - The import theoretical cost increased slightly from 862.94 yuan on March 27th to 863.52 yuan on March 28th, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2] Supply - Monthly port throughput increased by 50.98% from 131.1 million cubic meters on December 31st to 197.9 million cubic meters on February 28th. The number of ships in the port increased by 18.37% from 49 to 58 [2] - Weekly log inventory in major ports increased. As of March 21st, the inventory in China was 364 million cubic meters, a 4.30% increase from March 14th. In Shandong and Jiangsu, the inventories also increased [2][3] Demand - Weekly average daily log出库量 decreased. As of March 21st, the average daily log出库量 in China was 6.42 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from March 14th. In Shandong, it increased by 2%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 2% [2][3]