Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side, while ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Main Contract**: On January 14, the PTA main futures contract TA605 declined by 0.23%, and the basis weakened to - 76 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China was 5070 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil rose to around 64 dollars/barrel over the weekend. PTA capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 76.76%. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.60 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [3] - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long and short main forces [3] - **Trend Expectations**: PTA processing fees are at a high level, but there are no plans to further increase the load of PTA plants. Terminal weaving inventory is accumulating. Terminal demand is expected to weaken before the end of January. The market is generally bullish on upstream PX, and PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Main Contract**: On January 14, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose by 0.94%, and the basis strengthened to - 142 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3718 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal rebounded. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 73.7 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons compared to the previous period [4] - **Main Force Trends**: There are differences between long and short main forces [4] - **Trend Expectations**: There are still many arrivals of ethylene glycol in the near future, and seasonal inventory accumulation continues. Although there are maintenance plans for multiple overseas plants in the future, the downstream polyester start - up is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation in the short term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the market is affected by factors such as cost support, inventory levels, and downstream production trends. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8510 - 8760 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production is decreasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support is stabilizing. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 47635 - 50375 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week, with demand rising [6]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 53,200 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 68,200 tons, at a high level; the social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 565 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule is decreasing, inventory remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support increases, and the industrial silicon 2605 contract oscillates between 8510 - 8760 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase compared to the previous month. In December, the battery cell production was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease; last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.04GW, a 1.34% increase. Currently, battery cell production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, the component production was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease; the expected component production for January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 13th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5745 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [11]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, demand from silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production continues to decrease, component production continues to decrease. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support stabilizes, and the polysilicon 2605 contract oscillates between 47635 - 50375 [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 02 contract down 1.38%, the 03 contract down 1.49%, etc. [17]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the 08 contract up 119.27% [17]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,128, a 2.20% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: The DMC production decreased by 1.86%, the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 64.23%, and the profit was 2100 yuan/ton [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46%, the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.85% [17]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.90%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 2.14% [17]. - **Production/Utilization Rate**: The weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 5.28%, the production in Sichuan decreased by 100.00%, and the production in Xinjiang decreased by 5.09% [17]. - **Cost/Profit**: The cost of 553 in Yunnan increased by 12.18%, and the cost of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang increased by 13.68% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of various silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Battery Cell**: The prices of various battery cells remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 15.91%, the weekly external sales factory inventory increased by 1.35%, and the export increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: The prices of various components remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, the domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, the European inventory decreased by 5.44%, and the export increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 0.45%, the average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged, the monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, the monthly consumption decreased by 10.37%, and the monthly balance changed by - 39.38% [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the price spread between 421 and 553 [21][22]. - **Polysilicon Disk Price Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon main contract prices, trading volumes, and basis [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in warehouses and ports, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume [27][28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates [31][32][33]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [38][39][40]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets for industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [42][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organosilicon**: The report shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [48][49][50][51][53][54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: The report shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [56][57][59][60][61]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: The report shows the cost, price, inventory, production, demand, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the trends of photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [66][67][69][70][72][73][75][76][78][79][81][82][84][85][87][88][89][90].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The A - share market saw a pull - back after a continuous volume - increasing upward trend, with the trading volume remaining high, and the correction amplitude may be limited. The bond market is in a volatile situation, and the rebound amplitude of treasury bond futures may be restricted. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend, and the steel market maintains a volatile trend. Other commodity markets also present various trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index Futures** - **Performance**: Index futures pulled back after reaching highs, and the technology sector had a collective correction. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do a good job in portfolio risk control, avoid heavy - position chasing, and consider allocating IH with relatively weak previous gains. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes and pay attention to preventing risks from large fluctuations [3]. **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Performance**: After previous adjustments, the duration of trading positions in the bond market has been compressed to a low level, and the selling pressure on long - term bonds has eased. The ultra - long - end showed an oversold rebound in the past two trading days. The short - term bond market is still in a volatile situation due to unclear economic "good start" and uncertain supply pressure. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. In the medium - term, prefer to steepen the yield curve [3]. **Precious Metals** - **Performance**: U.S. inflation data was generally moderate, the U.S. dollar rebounded, and precious metals showed a differentiated trend with silver leading the rise. - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a light - position long - bias operation or sell out - of - the - money put options for gold above $4300. Hold long positions of silver above $75 and operate cautiously on a single - side basis. For platinum and palladium, consider buying lightly at the 20 - day moving average [3]. **Shipping and Steel** - **Performance**: The shipping market declined, and the steel market maintained a volatile trend. Iron ore supply is in the off - season, and port inventories are continuously accumulating. - **Operation Suggestion**: For steel, the reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. For iron ore, it is in a wide - range fluctuation with a reference range of 770 - 830 [3]. **Coal and Coking** - **Performance**: Coal prices in Shanxi showed more increases than decreases, and the transaction volume improved. After the fourth round of coke price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilized. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal and coke on dips, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Performance**: Copper prices are at a high level, and downstream operating rates are weakening. Aluminum has high - inflation of long - position sentiment with a risk of emotional correction. Other non - ferrous metals also show different price trends. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold copper long positions lightly and cautiously. For aluminum, wait for a correction to build long positions. For other non - ferrous metals, operate according to their respective price ranges and trends [3]. **New Energy and Chemicals** - **Performance**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuate, and polycrystalline silicon futures decline further. Chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends. - **Operation Suggestion**: For industrial silicon, the reference range is 8000 - 9000. For other chemicals, operate according to their respective price ranges, supply - demand situations, and trends [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Performance**: USDA reports have different impacts on agricultural products. For example, it is bearish for beans and neutral - bullish for cotton. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different agricultural products have different operation suggestions, such as waiting and seeing, long - position protection, or short - position operations according to their price trends and supply - demand conditions [3].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：除部分煤矿因井下问题产量受限，其余矿点基本维持正常生产节奏，整体产量小幅波动。 受近期钢厂铁水回升的影响，整体煤焦市场情绪出现回暖迹象，下游贸易商和用户企业抄底补库增加,上 游出货情况明显好转，订单增多，主流煤矿竞拍出现不同程度的溢价，竞拍市场流拍率回至低位，市场 成交明显好转；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差9；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：随着高炉复产进程推进，铁水产量稳步回升带动原料需求释放，加之下游焦钢企业厂内存煤 属于同期低位，刚性需求稳定，对 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 基本面弱势运行，淡季钢价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂生产积极，螺纹产量持续回升，且后续仍有增量空间，供 应压力在增加，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现低迷，高频需求指标继续位于近年来同 期低位，且下游行业未见改善，需求料将延续季节性弱势，继而拖累钢价。总之，螺纹钢供应回 升，而需求表 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受美国农业部供需报告超预期利空的影响，豆类期价整体转弱。美国农业部 1 月份的月度供需 报告，作为对 2025/26 产季的最终核定，以一系列超预期的数据调整，为全球大豆市场定下了基调。本次 报告的核心特征在于数据与市场普遍预期形成强烈反差，尤其是美国大豆数据的调整方向全面利空。国内 尽管豆粕现货报价保持坚挺，然而，国内大豆与豆粕库存整体仍处于历史同期偏高水平，原料供应充裕。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

1 豆粕：外弱内强 短期调整空间受限 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2790 | 2786 | 4 | 0. 14% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3225. 14 | 3224. 86 | 0. 28 | 0. 01% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3120 | 3100 | 20 | 0. 65% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3187.5 | 3187.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2257.5 | 2263. 75 | -6. 25 | -0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Apple - Short - term, the apple futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival. Long - term, good - quality fruits are in short supply with firm prices, while high prices may suppress consumption, and the market share of ordinary apples is squeezed by other fruits, leading to high inventory pressure. The futures market shows a high - level shock with a near - strong and far - weak price pattern [1]. Red Dates - The current red date market has sufficient supply, with off - grade and finished products arriving at the sales areas. The overall market transaction is weak, and the consumption peak season is lackluster. Recently, the number of futures warehouse receipts has gradually increased. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the futures prices fluctuate within a range [3]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil shows a trend of rising and then falling due to rumors about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Domestic palm oil may test the support at 8750 yuan. For soybean oil, the US market has a decrease in production but an increase in ending stocks, which is bearish. However, domestic soybean oil fundamentals are improving, but the rise is restricted by USDA and MPOB reports. Rapeseed oil is boosted by the strong performance of related external oils, but its upward momentum is limited due to expected trade - relation easing and global rapeseed harvest. There is a risk of it falling to 8900 yuan, while the spot price remains strong due to low inventory [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast region is still limited, and prices are strong before the Spring Festival. In the North China region, prices fluctuate slightly. The demand side has different inventory strategies for different enterprises, and policy - driven corn auctions are ongoing but with limited scale. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's need for stocking support prices, but policy - released corn restricts the increase. For corn starch, prices also show certain fluctuations [7]. Sugar - The market's focus is on Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane season starting in April. ICE raw - sugar futures have a slight increase due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of December. The expected increase in the next - season's sugar - cane yield in Brazil and India's strong production, along with Thailand's slow - progress season, lead to a stable and fluctuating raw - sugar price in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the sugar price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [10]. Meal Products - USDA slightly raises the US soybean production and lowers exports, causing the US soybean inventory to rise and the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support at around 1050 cents. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is high, which suppresses the market. But the expected low - level arrival in the first quarter and the uncertainty of arrival time limit the downward space of soybean meal. The market maintains a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [12]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are relatively stable, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The US cotton shows a decrease in both production and ending stocks in January compared to December. The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas is rising, and the export sales are declining, so US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Zhengzhou cotton has support from textile enterprises' rigid demand, but with increasing unfavorable factors such as compressed profits and expanding price differences between domestic and foreign cotton. The short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment period [14]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has significantly declined, with reduced supply in the North and a sharp drop in demand in the South, suppressing the price. Although there is still some second - fattening activity, the enthusiasm is limited. The overall supply in January is expected to be abundant, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [15]. Eggs - The egg supply is in an oversupply stage, with a slight decrease in the number of culled hens and a small increase in newly - laid hens. There is a structural difference in egg sizes. The demand is increasing due to the peak production season of food enterprises and the approaching Spring Festival, but the increase is mainly in the trade - link inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there may be a short - term adjustment, but there is still a possibility of a small increase, with attention to the pressure level around 3100 [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Futures prices: Apple 2605 (main contract) rose 1.55%, and Apple 2610 rose 0.81%. The basis decreased by 10.42%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 6.96%. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several major fruit wholesale markets increased, with a 16.67% increase at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market. - Inventory and profit: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit increased [1]. Red Dates - Futures prices: Red date 2605 (main contract) fell 1.09%, and other contracts also showed declines. The 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased. - Spot prices: The prices of different - grade red dates in Cangzhou were relatively stable. The basis of Cangzhou's top - grade and first - grade red dates against the main contract increased. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.71%, and the effective forecast decreased by 15.25% [3]. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18%, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 21.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17%. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 2.89%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 264.86%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72%. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.55%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 15.69%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 14.40% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The futures price of Corn 2603 decreased by 0.26%, the basis increased by 32.00%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 100.00%. The import cost from Brazil decreased by 3.38%, and the import profit increased by 37.80%. - Corn starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 decreased by 0.19%, the basis increased by 8.78%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 10.34% [7]. Sugar - Futures market: The futures prices of Sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.34%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 116.67%. - Spot market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were stable. The basis in Nanning increased by 42.67%, and in Kunming, it increased by 58.18%. - Industry situation: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [10]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.32%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 1.04%, and the basis increased by 5.28%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 40.1%. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.69%, and the basis increased by 8.57%. The Canadian 3 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 2.87% [12]. Cotton - Futures market: The futures prices of Cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.71%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.82%. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B decreased, while the FC Index M 1% increased. The basis differences between 3128B and futures contracts decreased. - Industry situation: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, and the textile - related export and retail data showed certain changes [14]. Live Pigs - Futures market: The futures price of Live Pig 2605 increased slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 12.79%. The main - contract basis increased by 3.43%. - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 1.12%, and the white - strip price increased by 0.92% [15]. Eggs - Futures market: The futures prices of Egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The 3 - 4 spread decreased by 2.53%. - Spot market: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.77%, and the basis increased by 36.92%. - Related indicators: The egg - chicken - seedling price, egg - feed ratio, and breeding profit increased, while the culled - chicken price decreased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: This week, the 05 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will decrease but remain at a high level, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the futures market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - Polysilicon: This week, the 05 contract also declined. It is predicted that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, cost support will stabilize, and the futures market will probably have a neutral sideways adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 05 contract opened at 8855 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8715 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,400 tons, a 5.28% decrease. Different regions had varying changes in the start - up rate, and it is expected that the monthly start - up rate will be 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase. Different downstream sectors had different performance in demand, inventory, and profit [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: The 05 contract opened at 58,345 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 51,300 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 12.07% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease. The predicted production scheduling for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: Different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components had different trends in production, inventory, and profit. The overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak later [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [16]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory [19][20]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It displays the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and start - up rate [23][24][26]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in different regions such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [34][37]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, cost - profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products [40][42][45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, as well as its relationship with the automotive industry [48][51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the price, cost, supply - demand balance, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the polysilicon industry [56][59][62]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - For the SI main contract, this week, it showed a downward trend. The report provides price and volume data from December 5, 2025, to January 9, 2026, along with multiple - period moving averages of the closing price. It is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [78][79]. - For the PS main contract, this week, it also declined. It is predicted that next week, the market will probably have a narrow - range sideways adjustment [80][81].

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2026年01月05日-01月09日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周03合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3172元/吨,周五收盘价为3171元/吨，周跌幅为0.03%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为27.5048%，环比减少1.86个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.03万吨，环比减少 20.05%,样本企业产量为45.9万吨，环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨，环比增加3.64% 。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.4%,环比减少0.07个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青开工率 ...