Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - For the polyolefin industry, the overall macro - environment is pessimistic, and the cost and supply - demand situation are weak. The prices of PP and PE are under pressure. The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP have limited upside space due to new device production pressure and lackluster demand [2]. - In the polyester industry, PX is expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply contraction and demand support. PTA may be boosted in the short - term. EG is under pressure due to inventory build - up. Short - fiber prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip prices follow the cost side [4]. - Regarding pure benzene and styrene, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drive is weak. They may follow oil prices in the short - term [5]. - For PVC and caustic soda, short - term caustic soda prices are weak due to supply increase and general demand, while long - term there is demand support. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and the short - term disk has stopped falling [6]. - In the methanol industry, the price may continue to oscillate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation, port de - stocking, and overseas gas - limiting expectations [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 increased. The price differences between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed. The prices of some spot products such as East China PP wire drawing and North China LDPE film also rose [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Polyester Industry - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On October 22, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also changed. The cash flows of some products decreased [4]. - **PX - Related**: Some PX devices had unplanned maintenance or load reduction, and a new PTA device was planned to be put into production. PX supply was expected to shrink, and demand was supported [4]. - **PTA - Related**: As some PTA devices restored their loads and new devices were about to be put into production, the PTA spot basis continued to weaken [4]. - **EG - Related**: Domestic ethylene glycol devices started up and increased their loads, and the supply was sufficient. It was expected to build up inventory in October [4]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply was high, and demand was supported. Bottle - chip was in the traditional off - season, and demand was weak [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the prices of some products such as CFR China pure benzene and BZ futures 2603 increased. The spreads between pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [5]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories changed, and the operating rates of industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain also changed [5]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Pure benzene supply was expected to be loose due to new capacity and weak demand. Styrene supply was expected to be high, and demand was limited [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 22, the prices of SH2601 and V2601 increased, while SH2509 decreased. The price differences between SH2509 - 2601 and V2509 - V2601 changed [6]. - **Export and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC export prices and profits changed. The inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Caustic soda demand was weak in the short - term but had long - term support. PVC supply - demand pressure was large, and the market was weak [6]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 22, the closing prices of MA2601 decreased, while MA2605 increased. The basis and regional price differences changed [7]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol inventories such as enterprise, port, and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Overseas methanol production decreased, and there were expectations of supply reduction. Port inventory was high, and demand was weak in the traditional downstream [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices were mainly weak, and the overall unilateral downward pattern remained unchanged, with prices approaching the lows in May. The supply - side expectation of loosening in the commodity attribute, weak winter consumption, and the expected increase in inventory data will continue to drag down oil prices. In terms of the financial attribute, although the market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year, factors such as the U.S. federal government shutdown, delayed economic data, and banking turmoil make it difficult for global financial easing to effectively boost commodity prices. Politically, with the cease - fire agreements in the Middle East and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical factor is less likely to have a significant impact on oil prices. Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure and are unlikely to recover significantly [12][18][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Since the National Day, oil prices have been in a unilateral downward channel. Last week, they neared the price lows since May. Although there was a slight rebound over the weekend, the downward trend continued. It is expected that oil prices will remain weak this week, with a suggested price range of 415 - 440 yuan/barrel. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies. However, as U.S. oil prices have squeezed producers' costs, the downside space may be limited [12]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices broke downward. The expectation of a looser supply side and the easing of geopolitical tensions significantly suppressed oil prices. The U.S. government shutdown and delayed economic data also contributed to the continuous decline in oil prices, which broke through the lows since May [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - **U.S. government shutdown**: Last week, the U.S. regional banking sector slumped, with the KBW regional bank index dropping 3.6%, the largest single - day decline since May. The market value of 74 large U.S. banks evaporated by over $100 billion in a single day due to loan fraud incidents in at least two medium - sized banks, which may further hit market confidence. The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its third week, and the delay in key economic data has led to concerns about the Fed's future decisions. The market expects that the upcoming data may support an interest rate cut, and it is likely that the Fed will continue to cut rates at the end - of - October meeting [22]. - **This week's CPI trend**: The report mentions the U.S. CPI and core CPI data but does not provide specific analysis on this week's CPI trend [24][26]. - **Geopolitical situation**: In the Middle East, the visit of the U.S. president and the signing of the cease - fire agreement have reduced concerns about the geopolitical situation, but there are still uncertainties due to disputes over the implementation of the cease - fire agreement. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, after the U.S. - Russia call, there are expectations of a cease - fire, which may affect the situation, and continuous attention is needed [28]. 3.3.2 Supply - **OPEC+ production increase**: OPEC+ increased its daily production by 630,000 barrels to 43.05 million barrels in September, reflecting the implementation of approved production increase quotas [32][43]. - **Differences in production growth between Saudi Arabia and Russia**: There are differences in the production growth rates of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but specific details are not elaborated in the report [33]. - **Synchronous production increase in Iran and Iraq**: Iran and Iraq have both increased their oil production, but no specific analysis is provided in the report [36]. - **Stable recovery of U.S. production**: U.S. oil production has been increasing recently and has not been restricted by weak consumption [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Increasing supply - demand surplus**: OPEC's monthly report shows that although oil demand is expected to be stable, OPEC+ production increase may lead to a supply - side pressure. The IEA monthly report indicates that the global oil supply - demand surplus will be more severe than previously expected, which may lead to an increase in inventory and suppress oil prices [43]. - **Weak manufacturing in China and the U.S.**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the U.S. have not improved, which may affect oil demand [46]. - **Slowdown in refined oil production**: The production of refined oil has slowed down, which may also reduce oil demand [52]. 3.3.4 Inventory - **Continuous increase in crude oil inventory**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories both increased significantly more than expected. The increase in U.S. production and the decrease in refinery utilization rate led to the accumulation of inventory [53]. - **Difficult to boost with refined oil de - stocking**: In the week ending October 10, U.S. gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased. However, the weak situation on both the consumption and supply sides makes it difficult for refined oil prices to support oil prices [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Overall, oil prices will remain under pressure due to the weak performance of the three attributes (commodity, financial, and political), and it is difficult for them to recover significantly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The risk premium brought by geopolitical conflicts on the supply side is limited, and speculative funds are continuously withdrawing from long positions in crude oil. On the demand side, it is suppressed by weak refined oil consumption and refinery maintenance, and the deepening of the near - month discount of SC confirms the spot pressure. In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical risk premium and the results of the OPEC+ meeting in November and the winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Changes in Crude Oil Futures Market Data - On October 17, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 435 yuan/barrel, down 8.8 yuan (a decline of 1.98%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable, closing at 56.95 dollars/barrel and 61.02 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to 0.02 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed to 4.09 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.07 dollars/barrel. The near - month discount of SC deepened, and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 3 widened to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.1.2 Positions and Trading Volume - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 37,794 lots to 109,606 lots, and diesel net long positions were cut by 26,325 lots. Domestic SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and gas processing plants, as well as the destruction of the Crimean oil depot, may weaken Russia's crude oil export and refined oil supply capabilities. There is no new development in OPEC+ production policy, but the sharp reduction in Brent speculative net long positions shows that the market's trust in OPEC+ to maintain production cuts has declined [4]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The significant reduction in diesel speculative long positions and the high level of domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts reflect weak global industrial activities and shipping fuel demand. The expansion of the near - month discount of SC may be related to the weakening of immediate procurement demand due to seasonal maintenance of domestic refineries. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan was not mentioned, and there is no sign of recovery in EIA apparent demand [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.211 million barrels, indicating that the pressure on domestic delivery storage capacity has not been relieved. The decrease in low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts may suggest a marginal improvement in ship fuel demand in the Asia - Pacific region, but the absolute value is still at a low level. OECD commercial crude oil inventories are affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the overall inventory reduction speed may be lower than expected [6]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and the SC main contract may oscillate in the range of 435 - 445 yuan. Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations and global economic slowdown pressure will still suppress the upside space of oil prices. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the OPEC+ meeting in November will extend production cuts and the realization of winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.4.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.98%, WTI increased by 0.53%, and Brent increased by 0.52%. Spot prices of most crude oil types decreased. Spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI narrowed. Other assets such as the US dollar index, S&P 500, and DAX index also had corresponding changes. US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.84%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 7.25% [10]. 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU decreased, while NYMEX fuel oil increased. Most spot and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil decreased or remained unchanged. The Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.89% [11]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.5.1 Supply - On October 19, the Ukrainian military attacked a refinery in Russia's Samara region and a gas processing plant in the Orenburg region [12]. 3.5.2 Demand - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil and diesel speculators significantly reduced their net long positions [14]. 3.5.3 Inventory - On October 17, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,211,000 barrels, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons to 4,960 tons, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 44,960 tons [15]. 3.5.4 Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts had corresponding fluctuations. The Ukrainian special operations forces claimed to have attacked the Russian oil depot in Crimea [16]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the production of US crude oil, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, the operating rate of US refineries, and the inventory of US commercial crude oil, etc. [17][19][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for key companies within the sector [3][17]. Core Insights - The IEA has raised its crude oil production forecast, while OPEC's production significantly increased in September, leading to an anticipated oversupply in the market [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $61.29 per barrel, a decrease of 2.30% week-over-week [20]. - The refining sector shows mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads vary [4][17]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand improve, with a focus on leading companies in the industry [17]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $61.29 per barrel, down 2.30% from the previous week, while WTI prices also decreased [20]. - As of October 10, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 424 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels week-over-week [22]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. remained stable at 548, with a year-over-year decrease of 37 rigs [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $19.58 per barrel, down $0.47 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread for gasoline in the U.S. increased slightly to $17.19 per barrel, while olefin price spreads showed mixed trends [4][17]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4407.5 RMB per ton, down 3.41% week-over-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacities come online and demand recovers [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the potential for improved profitability in the oil and gas sector, suggesting investments in companies with high dividend yields like PetroChina and CNOOC [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After Trump's call with Putin, a meeting in Budapest is planned, which eases the current situation and the Russia - Ukraine situation is not expected to escalate before the meeting. The EU has issued implementation guidelines for refinery loophole sanctions, which will take effect on January 21, 2026. The market's initial reaction is bearish, and the implementation of the European refinery loophole policy will further reduce the market's ability or willingness to absorb Russian oil [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 81 cents to $57.46 per barrel, a decline of 1.39%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 85 cents to $61.06 per barrel, a decline of 1.37%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.83% at 435 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 11, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1,294 thousand liters to 10,287,981 thousand liters. Japan's gasoline inventory increased by 19,554 thousand liters to 1,563,638 thousand liters, and its kerosene inventory increased by 45,911 thousand liters to 2,813,243 thousand liters. The average refinery operating rate was 85.9%, down from 86.3% the previous week [1] - The US Treasury Secretary expects Japan to stop importing energy from Russia, but Japan, which gets about 8% of its LNG imports from Russia, says it won't stop for energy - security reasons. Japan is the only G7 member not to stop or pledge to end Russian gas imports [1] - Brazil's vice - president said Petrobras will sign a new oil contract with India today [1] - Russia's deputy prime minister said Russian gas accounts for about 19% of Europe's gas imports, and Russia is ready to talk about gas supply to Europe and develop Syria's oil reserves [1] Investment Logic - The planned meeting between Trump and Putin eases the situation, and the Russia - Ukraine situation is not expected to escalate before the meeting. The EU's refinery loophole sanctions will take effect in 2026. The market's initial reaction is bearish, and the policy will reduce the market's ability or willingness to absorb Russian oil [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3]

Core Insights - In September, Brent and WTI average prices were $67.6 and $63.6 per barrel, with month-on-month changes of 0.5% and -0.7% respectively [2] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, marking the sixth consecutive month of production increase announcements [2] - Geopolitical tensions remain high due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, impacting oil supply dynamics [2] Supply Side - OPEC+ members are increasing production to capture a larger share of the global oil market, which is expected to raise global oil supply forecasts [2] - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to disruptions, including an attack on oil shipping facilities near Novorossiysk, affecting approximately 2 million barrels per day of oil exports [2] Demand Side - Oil consumption is transitioning into the off-season, with expected weakening demand momentum [2] - As of September 26, U.S. refinery utilization was at 91.4%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the end of August, indicating potential seasonal declines ahead [2] Inventory - As of the week ending September 26, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 416.55 million barrels, down by 4.16 million barrels since the end of August [2] Price Outlook - The oil market is currently influenced by geopolitical disturbances, OPEC+ production increases, and weakening demand, with October Brent crude oil prices expected to range between $60 and $67 per barrel [2] - The industry cost structure may slightly decrease, while seasonal demand is anticipated to strengthen in the "golden September and silver October" period [4] Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as private refining, polyester filament, and modified plastics, with specific companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfengming, and Guoen Co., Ltd. highlighted for potential investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in international oil prices is seen as a correction of overly pessimistic sentiment rather than a trend reversal, with ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks continuing to impact market stability [1][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil has risen above $63 per barrel, while WTI crude is stabilizing around $60, following significant declines due to renewed trade tensions [1]. - Last Friday, both Brent and WTI recorded their largest single-day drops since August, with Brent falling by 3.8% and WTI dropping below the $60 mark [1]. Group 2: Trade Tensions and Market Reactions - The U.S. has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Asian countries after announcing 100% tariffs and export restrictions, which has provided temporary relief to oil prices [1][3]. - Asian countries have responded positively to dialogue but remain firm against threats, which may help alleviate short-term trade concerns and support risk assets [3]. Group 3: Market Uncertainties - Despite the positive signals, investor confidence remains low due to the lack of concrete actions and negotiation arrangements [3]. - The introduction of port surcharges on U.S. vessels by Asian countries has led to the cancellation of some crude oil transport plans, increasing uncertainty in the energy market [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - WTI crude has found temporary support around $59.00 after a rapid decline, but it has not yet broken through the critical resistance level of $60.00 [3]. - If prices do not stabilize above $60, the rebound may not be sustainable, with support levels identified between $59.30 and $58.50 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The overall technical outlook remains weak, and short-term operations should be approached with caution, especially if there are no substantial developments in U.S.-Asia trade negotiations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unprecedented scale of refinery shutdowns in Russia, leading to increased Ural crude oil exports. As of the end of September, 38% of Russia's refining capacity (approximately 338,000 tons per day) was offline, primarily due to drone attacks from Ukraine [3][4][5] - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, while day rates for jack-up rigs are increasing. Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79% from the previous week [3][18] - The refining sector is seeing a drop in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are rising. The Singapore refining margin for major products was $20.06 per barrel, down $1.48 from the previous week [3][54] - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [3][13] Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $62.73 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.79%. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.507 million barrels to 420 million barrels [3][20] - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 547, with a year-on-year reduction of 39 rigs [3][32] Refining Sector - The report notes a significant drop in Russian refining capacity due to drone attacks, with a 5.08% quarter-on-quarter decline in processing volume in Q3 2025 [3][9] - The report indicates that the domestic refining product spread has improved, but remains at a low level [3][51] Polyester Sector - The report indicates that PTA profitability has declined, while polyester filament profitability has increased. The average price of PTA in East China was 4,528.6 yuan per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [3][13] - The report expresses optimism for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a gradual improvement in the industry [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3][13]