BMI（惠誉子公司）分析师在本周五的一份报告中指出："美国可能增加对委内瑞拉的制裁以限制原油 出口，以及以色列可能对伊朗基础设施发动袭击的潜在风险，都增加了油价上行的风险。" 但BMI分析师也指出，石油需求减弱以及欧佩克+和非欧佩克产油国增产，都将在未来几个季度增加油 价下行压力。 全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯已将七月份对亚洲的原油价格下调至近两个月来的低点。此前，欧佩克 +同意在七月将产量提高41.1万桶/日，此次降价幅度小于市场预期。 沙特曾力推更大的增产幅度，这是其夺回市场份额并规范欧佩克+成员国（包括石油输出国组织及其盟 友俄罗斯）中超额生产国的整体策略的一部分。 包括Kim Fustier在内的汇丰银行分析师表示："根据我们的估计，随着夏季石油需求上升并在七月至八 月达到峰值，与欧佩克+的增产相匹配，市场在第二季度和第三季度将达到平衡。此后，欧佩克+加速 增产应会使市场在2025年第四季度出现比此前预测更大的盈余。" 汇丰研究称，欧佩克+预计将在下次会议上同意8月和9月两次大幅增产。预计在此期间，欧佩克+将分 别将日产量提高4.1万桶和27.4万桶。该行分析师表示："我们新的预期是，假设从10月到1 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 63.36 | 62.74 | 63.96 | 62.17 | -1.06 | 30.22 | | Brent | 主力 | 65.52 | 64.91 | 65.95 | 64.27 | -1.10 | 37.63 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 466.7 | 463.7 | 469.8 | 460.5 | -0.83 | 13.50 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 06 月 05 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： 二、沙特希望继续增产 据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油 增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。知情人士称，沙特欧 佩克+中占据越来越大的主导地位，希望该组织在 8 月和可能的 9 月 至少增加 41.1 万桶/日的产量。 三、关注伊核协议 据纽约时报报道，特朗普政府正提议达成一项协议，允许伊朗继 续进行低浓度铀浓缩活动，同时美国和其他国家将制定更详细的计 划，以阻止伊朗发展核武器，同时允许其获得用于新核电站的核燃料。 伊朗官员表示，将在几天后做出回应。 四、后市展望 关注沙特希望继续增产及伊核协议，油价当前位置震荡。后期随 着石油季节性旺季到来，油价存在一定向上动力，不过上升空间不大， 上方压力来自于 OPEC+增产决心。远期来看，由于供应端维持增长趋 势，而需求受制于经济复苏前景低迷以及新能源的替代，油价仍有下 挫空间。 Z0017388 沙特希望继续扩大增产，油价受挫 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格下滑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil seasonally increased, with absolute inventory lower than the annual average and slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuation, refinery operations have risen as expected, leading indicators of US production have declined, the US - Iran negotiation is deadlocked, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil remains bearish due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 21 to May 27, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a decrease in the latest data; BRENT prices decreased by $0.65; OMAN prices decreased by $0.73; domestic gasoline prices increased by $30.00; Japanese naphtha - BRT increased by $5.65; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $1.65; the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange FU decreased by 65 points; and the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange BU decreased by 10 points [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Trump warned Netanyahu not to take actions that could jeopardize the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the negotiations fail. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that OPEC+ has not discussed a 410,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July. The G7 and the EU's plan to tighten the Russian oil price cap to $50 per barrel is unacceptable. - Goldman Sachs predicts that non - OPEC shale oil production (excluding Russia) may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day in the next two years, and new natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's LNG production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 16, US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels. US domestic crude oil production increased by 500 barrels per day to 1.3392 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 138,000 barrels per day to 350,700 barrels per day. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with an increase in both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and a decrease from local refineries. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Core View - As the OPEC meeting approaches, the market is concerned about whether OPEC will announce further production increases in July. However, since OPEC announced accelerated production increases in April, Saudi Arabia's export volume has not increased, and it is urgent to clarify whether OPEC or Saudi Arabia has actually increased production [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 64 cents to $60.89 per barrel, a decline of 1.04%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 65 cents to $64.09 per barrel, a decline of 1.0%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.85% at 454 yuan per barrel [1] - Data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 27th showed that the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3%, with an expected value of - 7.8% and the previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Affected by the sharp decline in commercial aircraft orders, US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, and core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) fell 1.3%, the largest decline since last October [1] - Goldman Sachs: In the next two years, the oil production growth of shale oil projects in non - OPEC countries except Russia may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day. New natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's liquefied natural gas production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year in the next two years. Lower oil prices in 2025 - 2026 (i.e., a short - term surplus) may lead to an earlier and lower peak in US shale oil production [1] - Iran set the price of light crude oil sold to the Asian market in June at a premium of $1.80 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [1] - Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a phone call not to take any actions that could endanger the negotiations between the US and Iran on a new nuclear deal. Israel has been preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if the US - Iran nuclear negotiations fail in the next few weeks. Netanyahu may order an attack without Trump's approval, but Trump emphasized that "other options" are also being considered and hopes to try diplomatic solutions first [1] Strategy - Short - term neutral for oil prices, medium - term bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply tightening of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

【油价走势受多因素影响，面临回落压力】地缘溢价支撑，但潜在供应增量压制油价，地缘政治溢价发 挥有限。成品油旺季需求预期存在，然而贸易摩擦带来长期需求抑制。欧佩克+的第三次加速增产可能 影响市场。美国方面，产量 1339.2 万桶/日，环比变动 0.04%，同比变动 2.23%；美原油净进口量 258.2 万桶/日，环比变动 4.45%，同比变动 33.57%。美国炼厂加工量为 1649 万桶/日，环比变动 0.54%，同 比变动 0.05%；炼厂开工率为 90.7%，环比变动 0.5pts，同比变动-1.0pts。中国主营炼厂开工率为 73.26%，环比变动 0.8pts，同比变动-3.0pts；山东地炼开工率为 46.09%，环比变动-1.2pts，同比变 动-9.0pts。美国库存方面，除 SPR 外石油总库存 12.23 亿桶，上周同期为 12.18 亿桶，同比变 动-2.19%；本周原油商业库存为 4.43 亿桶，上周同期为 4.42 亿桶，同比变动-3.42%；汽油库存为 2.26 亿桶，上周同期为 2.25 亿桶，同比变动-0.57%；馏分油库存为 1.04 亿桶，上周同期为 1.04 亿桶，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting a divergence in aromatics profitability with PX strengthening while pure benzene weakens [4][5]. Core Insights - Aromatics prices have followed a downward trend alongside oil prices, with pure benzene margins at 619 CNY/ton, near historical lows, and PX margins at -41 USD/ton, showing some recovery from previous lows [4][5]. - The demand for pure benzene is suppressed due to low profitability in downstream products, while PX demand is positively influenced by the recovery in PTA production and margins [4][13]. - The report anticipates a short-term stabilization for pure benzene and a gradual recovery in the medium to long term as overseas refineries exit the market [4][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing mixed trends, with oil prices declining and drilling day rates showing variability, indicating potential for future increases as global capital expenditures rise [4][26]. - The refining sector is seeing improved profitability due to a rebound in oil prices, although the overall margins remain low [4][19]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to 64.78 USD/barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.54%, while WTI prices also fell [4][26]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased to 443 million barrels, with gasoline inventories rising as well, indicating a widening supply-demand trend [4][28]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 566, reflecting a reduction in exploration activity [4][36]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin decreased to 12.23 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread also saw a slight decline [4][19]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][19]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price reaching 4922 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend in the polyester supply chain [4][19]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry remains average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][19]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., Ltd. in the polyester sector [4][19].

Market Overview - On May 21, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with the spot market showing a general atmosphere of negotiation and a stable basis for spot prices. The trading range for May cargo was between 4855 and 4935, with some transactions slightly higher, while June cargo was traded at a basis of 120-140 [1][4]. Cost Analysis - As of May 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 355 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 356 CNY/ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: PTA operating rates increased to 76.9%, up by 4.4% from the previous week [3]. - Demand: The comprehensive operating rate for polyester rose to 95%, an increase of 0.8%. Despite forecasts of production cuts due to high raw material prices, the demand for polyester remains relatively stable, with low inventory levels in the polyester factories. The price of polyester yarn has shown mixed trends, but overall sales remain weak [3]. Market Outlook - In late May, PTA facilities are expected to restart, but future maintenance plans remain unclear. With rising raw material prices and increasing losses in downstream polyester products, there is a tendency for production cuts among some polyester factories. This has led to a weakening expectation in the supply-demand balance for PTA, resulting in a noticeable decline in basis this week. However, following the maintenance of a PTA facility in East China, the basis has stabilized somewhat. Short-term oil price increases are limited, and the intention for production cuts in downstream polyester factories puts pressure on PTA prices. The strategy suggests limited downside potential for TA as long as the supply-demand tightness persists and oil prices do not fall significantly, with a focus on support around 4600 [4].

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 1.3 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a decrease of 900,000 barrels, putting short-term pressure on oil prices [1] - Gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 600,000 barrels, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [1] - Despite weak demand, refinery processing activity increased, with an average processing rate of 16.5 million barrels per day, reflecting preparations for the upcoming summer driving season [1] Inventory Data - As of the week ending May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.2 million barrels, which is still 6% lower than the five-year average [1] - Propane/propylene inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels, indicating tight supply conditions [1] - Gasoline and distillate production increased to 9.6 million barrels per day and 4.7 million barrels per day, respectively, contributing to market oversupply [2] Demand Trends - Over the past four weeks, the average daily supply of petroleum products in the U.S. was 19.6 million barrels, down 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Gasoline demand decreased by 1% year-on-year, while distillate demand fell by 4.2%, highlighting overall weak consumption [1] - Jet fuel demand showed a positive trend, increasing by 4% year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the travel industry [1] Import Dynamics - Average crude oil imports were 6.1 million barrels per day, up by 24,700 barrels week-on-week, but down 13.5% year-on-year [2] - Gasoline imports reached 747,000 barrels per day, and distillate imports were 141,000 barrels per day, contributing to inventory growth [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]