金十数据6月2日讯，摩根士丹利研究公司策略师Vishwanath Tirupattur和Serena Tang在报告中称，美元未 来12个月将持续疲软是摩根士丹利研究公司的一个关键主题。他们说："我们预计，由于美国利率和经 济增长与同行趋同，美元将继续走软。"外汇套期保值流动的增加导致风险溢价进一步上升，这将增加 美元的抛售压力。日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等其他避险货币预计将从中受益。 摩根士丹利：美元未来12个月将持续疲软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential upward movement of copper futures prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and the weakening of the US dollar, raising questions about the sustainability of these trends in driving metal market prices higher [1] Group 1: Market Trends - There is a significant increase in demand for safe-haven assets, which is expected to support the upward trend in copper futures prices [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is also highlighted as a factor that could contribute to rising metal prices, including copper [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises the question of whether the current trends in safe-haven demand and dollar weakness can be sustained, which will be crucial for the future performance of the metal market [1]

对于近期行情涨涨跌跌，反反复复，多空转换频繁，很多投资朋友们都措手不及，或不知从何下手，一买进就跌，出场就涨，来来回回连续损单，其实这是 很多新手朋友们都会出现的情况，在这里告诉大家，做交易首先不要频繁去操作，其次要对行情需要有一个精准的把控，坚持自己的交易系统，当然这些对 一些新手朋友来说都是空谈，毕竟才入市并没有严格的交易计划，大多数都是追涨杀跌从而导致严重亏损，如果此时此刻看到文章的你也是这样的情况，那 么可以咨询本人沟通交流一下，可以帮你指出做单中所有的问题，这样可以让你在交易的过程中少走弯路。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周四（5月22日）现货黄金在触及近两周高位3345美元区域后出现技术性回撤，目前美盘时段围绕3300美元附近震荡整理。尽管美元指数 的温和反弹给金价带来一定下行压力，但市场对美联储进一步降息的预期以及对美国财政赤字不断恶化的担忧，为非收益性的黄金资产提供了重要支撑。当 前黄金市场环境，美元疲软、地缘政治风险和经济不确定性三大支撑因素短期内难以消退。特别是美国财政赤字货币化的长期趋势和中东局势的潜在恶化风 险，都可能成为推动金价进一步上涨的催化剂。不过也需警惕如果美国经济 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) equity strategy, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations and currency fluctuations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Tariff Dynamics** - The US-China tariff agreement indicates a reduction in peak tariff pain, with the weighted average tariff rate on US imports expected to decrease from 24% to 15% post-agreement, compared to 2.4% in 2024. This tariff shock is anticipated to negatively impact global trade and the economy [2][2][2]. 2. **Market Performance and Valuation** - MSCI EM has increased by 4.4% since April 1, while the 2025 consensus EPS has declined by 1.4%, suggesting that markets have reacted mildly to the tariff news. The EM price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 18.2x, which is considered not cheap, with 2025-26 EPS growth forecasts of 15-17% facing downside risks [2][2][12]. 3. **Potential Capital Flows from the US to EM** - A hypothetical outflow of $1 trillion from the US into EM equities could result in $290 billion inflows for EMs. The absorption of this capital would take approximately 2.2 days in EM markets compared to 8.9 days in developed markets (DMs) [3][31][32]. 4. **Impact of USD Weakness on EM Equities** - A weaker USD generally has a negative impact on EM earnings per share (EPS), estimated at a 0.2-0.25% decline for every 1% depreciation. However, it tends to improve EM returns by about 3% for the same depreciation due to increased foreign equity inflows [4][4][38]. 5. **Regional Sensitivity to Currency Movements** - Taiwan, China, and India are expected to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while Japan is projected to benefit the least. Taiwan's foreign flows are particularly sensitive to currency fluctuations, often leading to market outperformance despite potential EPS hits [5][54][54]. 6. **Sector Sensitivity to USD Movements** - Real estate and transport sectors are likely to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while sectors like insurance, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals may experience a more significant negative impact [42][42][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Ratings** - The report includes a market rating distribution for EM/AxJ, with China and Indonesia rated overweight, while Taiwan and Saudi Arabia are rated underweight [7][7][7]. 2. **EPS Revisions** - Recent revisions indicate a downward trend in EPS for 2025 across various markets, with significant impacts noted in Japan, the USA, and Hong Kong [19][20][21]. 3. **Foreign Flows and Currency Performance** - The sensitivity of foreign flows to currency movements varies significantly across countries, with Taiwan showing the highest sensitivity and Japan the lowest [54][54][54]. 4. **Investment Recommendations** - The report suggests a rotation out of 'defensive and domestic' themes in favor of markets like Korea, Mexico, and Hong Kong, while India's attractiveness may diminish [2][2][2]. 5. **Long-term Outlook** - The long-term outlook for EM remains cautious, with potential risks from global economic conditions and tariff policies impacting growth forecasts [2][2][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the EM and APAC equity markets.

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，汇丰外汇分析师说，利率差异和其他传统因素暗示美元应该走强。美元最近的疲 软表明，其他因素正在主导美元的走势，市场对美元的不信任持续存在。美国的经济活动、政治和结构 性因素意味着美元应该处于疲软状态，尽管美元不会持续多年下跌。我们不认同美元遭遇结构性下跌， 但我们了解其中的风险，以及可能导致这种下跌的因素。人们对美元的信任需要时间才能恢复。 美元疲软表明市场对美元的不信任持续存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant depreciation of the US dollar and its impact on Asian currencies, highlighting a shift in international capital flows and market dynamics [2][3][12]. Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 0.22%, reaching 99.82, with a minimum drop to around 99.60, marking a maximum decline of over 0.43% during the trading session [1][2]. - The offshore RMB broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar, hitting a low of 7.19, the first time since November of the previous year, with a daily drop exceeding 200 basis points [5][6]. - The US dollar to New Taiwan dollar experienced a maximum drop of over 4%, the largest since 1988, with the exchange rate falling below 30 for the first time since February 2023, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 9% [6][7]. Market Reactions - The weakening of the US dollar has led to increased demand for Asian currencies, with significant movements observed in the Malaysian ringgit and South Korean won, both showing declines exceeding 1% against the dollar [7]. - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side convertibility guarantee for the first time since October 2020, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to stabilize the currency by buying US dollars and selling HKD [8][9]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the erratic tariff policies of the US government have heightened concerns about a potential recession in the US economy, leading to a reduced willingness among international investors to hold US assets [7][12]. - The article notes that the recent trends in currency movements may indicate a temporary easing of trade tensions, which could support a technical recovery of the US dollar index, although the long-term outlook for the US economy remains bleak [13][14].

金十数据5月2日讯，由于美元和美国国债收益率下滑，黄金期货在相对清淡的交易中上涨。但在周四的 大幅抛售后，本周整体下跌。SP Angel的分析师在一份报告中说，ETF资金外流表明，在今年迄今金价 上涨21%之后，交易员和投资者已经获利了结。SP Angel表示，贸易紧张关系降温正在降低黄金的吸引 力，同时特朗普宣布他不打算解雇鲍威尔。现在的焦点转向将于周五的美国就业数据。如果数据弱于预 期，就会提振人们对美联储降息的乐观情绪，这对无息黄金是一个利好。 美元疲软导致金价上涨，非农弱于预期将利好黄金 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 ④【AMD8亿美元减值损失拖累业绩预期，汇丰下调目标价至70美元】尽管AMD有望达成一季度财务 目标，但美国人工智能芯片出口管制引发的8亿美元减值损失，正持续冲击其未来业绩展望。汇丰银行 最新研报将AMD目标价从90美元大幅下调至70美元，并重申"减持"评级。 ⑤【大摩：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场】摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson表示，美元走软 将支撑美国企业盈利，有助于美国股市跑赢全球其他市场。他指出，企业盈利成长波动性较小以及美国 企业被认为质量更高是支持这一观点的其他理由。 ⑥【特斯拉据称调整Semi量产计划，预计年底开始生产】据外媒，特斯拉Semi电动半挂卡车量产计划 有所调整，预计今年底开始生产，明年提速。报道称，其位于内华达州的新工厂已建成，正在部署生产 线。 ⑦【汇丰一季度税前利润下降25%，宣布30亿美元股票回购】汇丰控股周二公布，今年第一季度税前利 润下降25%至95亿美元，原因是计入了与加拿大和阿根廷的业务处置相关的一次性费用。该行还宣布了 一项30亿美元的股票回购计划。 ⑨【巴克莱下调2025年布油预测，因贸易紧张局势和OPEC+调整生 ...