Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility and requires a thorough adjustment to sustain long-term growth [1] - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue its decline, and investors should avoid trying to catch falling stocks [1][2] - The upcoming policy announcements in October and the Federal Reserve's meeting are unlikely to change the market's bottom-seeking process [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has limited downside, with key support levels at the 60-day moving average and the bottom of the trading range [2] - The focus has shifted to the main board, as the growth stocks in the ChiNext index show no signs of recovery [2] - Investors are advised to either remain in cash or hold light positions until the adjustment period concludes, expected around late November or early December [2] Group 3 - A significant upcoming event is the potential end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT), which could greatly impact the capital markets [3] - The market is likely to experience a shift due to the combination of the end of QT and subsequent interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - The current market correction is viewed as a necessary step for future upward movement, maintaining a slow bull market outlook [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver continued to be strong with large intraday fluctuations. The US government shutdown and tariff frictions increased market uncertainty, and the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction strengthened the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, but in the short term, the rising speed of gold and silver is too fast, with obvious overbought signs on the disk and high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Fed Governor Milan called for an accelerated pace of interest - rate cuts, but the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP, and he said that two more rate cuts this year are realistic; apart from gold, there is no risk premium in the market [1] Other Summaries US Economic Situation - The Federal Reserve said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, and the employment level has generally remained stable. Overall consumer spending has declined slightly, while prices continue to rise, and several Fed districts reported an accelerated increase in input costs. The cost increase caused by tariffs has been reported in many districts, but the degree of transmission of these higher costs to final prices varies [2] International Events - The Trump administration authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela, and Trump confirmed this news. Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume operations at his order [2]

| Milli | 国控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银延续强势,日内维持较大波动。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声 强化货币宽松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显,波动风险较 大，观望为主。 ★美联储理事米兰呼吁加快降息步伐,但（单次）降息幅度无需超过50BP，其称今年再降息两次是观实的; 除了黄金，看不到市场中已包含风险溢价。 ★美国联邦储备委员会表示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，就业水平总体保持稳定。根据美联储周三发布 的对各联储辖区商业联络人所作调查的褐皮书报告，整体消费者支出小幅回落。与此同时，价格继续上涨， 几个联储辖区报告投入成本上升速度加快。美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday (October 15), the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most industrial products falling and most agricultural products rising [1] - For the black series, the steel market lacks positive drivers, the post - holiday supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price increase pressure persists [1] - For basic metals, market risk preference has declined, but the cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [1] - For energy and chemical products, international oil prices have hit new lows, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term [1] - For oils and fats and oilseeds, the domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support, but there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Commodity Futures Market Performance - Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 4.25%; metals all rose, with silver rising 2.30%; oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybeans rising 0.76%; agricultural and sideline products all rose, with corn rising 0.67% [1] - Energy products led the losses, with low - sulfur fuel oil falling 1.90%; non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass falling 1.74%; the black series mostly fell, with iron ore falling 1.46%; basic metals were mixed, with zinc falling 1.17%; chemicals mostly fell, with asphalt falling 1.10%; new energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate falling 0.60% [1] 3.2 Black Series - The five major steel product inventories increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons last week, with the increase much higher than 3.65% in the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. The accumulated inventory needs time to digest, exports face new challenges, and steel supply is expected to remain high, resulting in prominent fundamental contradictions and continuous price increase pressure [1] 3.3 Basic Metals - In the copper market, the intensification of Sino - US game has boosted risk - aversion sentiment and weakened global economic growth expectations. The cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue high - level fluctuations [1] 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products - International oil prices hit new lows since early May, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty of the macro - level [1] 3.5 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - The domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support and is in a weak adjustment. The export data of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. The supply of South American soybeans is expected to be strong, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are under pressure. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3.6 Index Performance - The Guomao Commodity Composite Index rose 0.98% from October 14 to October 15 [1] - The Guomao Bulk Commodity Index rose 0.15% [1] - The Guomao Non - Metallic Mineral Products Index rose 0.13% [1] - The Guomao Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 0.66% [1] - The Guomao Petroleum and Oil Index rose 1.03% [1] - The Guomao Primary Chemicals Index rose 0.04% [1] - The Guomao Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Index rose 0.27% [1]

鲍威尔一席话，全球市场闻风而动。 美东时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上的重要讲话，为即将于10月28日至29日召开的美联储议息会议定下了基调。 鲍威尔明确表示，自9月会议以来，美国经济前景"基本保持不变"。他重申美联储正面临艰难平衡：行动太快可能导致抗通胀成果半途而废，而行动太迟则 会给劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。 尽管美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布受阻，但鲍威尔的讲话传递出清晰信号——美联储将继续保持宽松政策方向。 01 就业市场疲态：降息的关键推动力 鲍威尔在讲话中多次强调劳动力市场正在呈现疲软态势，这一表态成为市场判断美联储政策走向的关键线索。 他指出，美国经济正处于 "低招聘、低裁员"的异常时期，但这种情况可能已接近极限。 "职位空缺的持续下降可能很快反映在失业率上，" 鲍威尔的这一担忧引发了市场广泛关注。 美国失业率已在8月升至4.3%，创下过去一年新高。由于政府停摆，9月份非农就业报告被迫推迟发布，这使得市场对劳动力状况的判断变得更加困难。 鲍威尔坦言："我们很快就会开始错过数据，特别是10月的核心数据。如果停摆持续下去，数据甚至不会被收集。" 02 通胀形 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜国际油价震荡,布伦特12合约涨0.31%。中美贸易博弈悬而未决令市场仍处避险倾向，三大机 构10月报总体将今明两年的供需盈余分别上调21万桶/天、46万桶/天，市场宽松放大的预期进一步 对油市构成压力，上周美国API原油库存超预期增加736万桶。原油中期偏空思路不变,短期关注月 末APAC会议期间中美会谈对风险情绪的摇摆。 【责金属】 隔夜金银延续强势。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声强化货币宽 松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固，但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显，波动风险较大， 观望为主。 【铜】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存持续上升，供应过剩明显。9月晋豫平均成本在3000元左 右，当前指数价格尚不足以触发晋豫现金亏损减产但正在接近，氧化铝弱势运行为主。 (镇及不锈钢) 沪镍弱势运行，市场交投平淡。中美摩擦再度提升不确定性，宏观逐步向风险偏好降低的方向发 展。不锈钢基本面偏弱。传统消费旺季下游需求复苏有限，市场成交较为清淡，社会库存也出现止 降回升的趋势。高操铁报价在953元每锦点，纯银库存增近3000吨至4 ...

当地时间10月15日，美股市场三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数小幅下跌，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均上涨。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.7%，新东方涨逾10%，小牛电动涨逾5%。现货黄金价格涨逾1%，站上4200美元/盎司，再创历史新 高，国际原油价格小幅上涨。 据央视新闻报道，美共和党临时拨款法案再次未能在参议院获得推进。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国劳工部原定15日公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI） 报告推迟发布。 中国资产上涨 当地时间10月15日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨0.66%、0.4%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.59%，特斯拉上涨1.38%，英伟达下跌0.11%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通涨逾1%，摩根士丹利涨逾4%，美国银行涨逾4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利发布第三季度业绩，第三季度净营收同比增长18%至 182.2亿美元，超出市场预期的166.4亿美元；每股收益2.8美元，同比增长约49%。其中，第三季度投行业务收入同比增长44%至21.08亿美元，股票业务收 入同比增长35%至 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, signaling a significant shift in monetary policy [2][21]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which stood at $6.5 trillion as of October 8, 2025, is primarily composed of $2.4 trillion in currency, $3.0 trillion in reserves, and approximately $800 billion in the Treasury's general account [5]. - Powell's remarks suggest that the aggressive liquidity tightening cycle may be nearing its end, driven by concerns over economic downturn risks, particularly in the labor market [21][22]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index fell below 99, while gold prices surged to a new high of $4,189.41 per ounce, reflecting market expectations of an impending shift in liquidity conditions [15][23]. - The stock market exhibited a mixed response, with tech stocks, especially in the AI sector, facing pressure due to concerns over industry bubbles and competition, leading to declines in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices [17][19]. - Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw gains, driven by positive news from individual companies like Walmart, which announced a partnership with OpenAI [19]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Powell noted that while some key data releases were delayed due to government shutdowns, existing data suggested that economic activity might be more resilient than expected, despite a slowdown in job creation [12]. - The core PCE inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, influenced by tariff impacts rather than broader inflationary pressures, indicating a complex economic landscape [12][22]. - The Fed's long-term plan involves normalizing the balance sheet when reserve levels are deemed sufficient, with Powell closely monitoring various indicators to support this decision [10][24].

美联储传声筒认为，鲍威尔并未打压市场预期；相反，鲍威尔讲话被市场解读为鸽派，为10月底的降息铺平道路；目前市场认为，10月份美联储降息已经板 上钉钉。 凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔放大招！ 北京时间10月15日凌晨，美联储主席鲍威尔警告称，美国劳动力市场显示出进一步的困境迹象。鲍威尔指出："就业的下行风险已经上升。" 鲍威尔还表示，美联储可能即将结束长期以来缩减其资产负债表的努力。考虑到美联储长期以来的目标是在金融体系中留下足够的流动性，以便牢牢控制短 期利率和正常的货币市场波动，鲍威尔说，"我们可能在未来几个月接近这一点，我们正在密切关注一系列指标，以了解这一目标是否已经实现"。暗示，未 来几个月美联储将结束缩表！ 今日早盘黄金多头于4140区域企稳再次发力，截止目前创下4186.8美元历史新高。当前黄金，我们继续看涨，昨日没能实现的4200目标位，今日势必拿下； 支撑重点关注日内低点以及4090以来短期上涨趋势支撑，坚守则多头强势，继续新高，上方重点在4210~15区域，进一步4245~40区域。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间10月14日，美国国会参议院未能通过程序性投票，无法推进共和党提出的一项临时拨款法案。该法 ...