1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market continues to be highly volatile in the short - term, and the US dollar index is expected to decline further. The potential liquidity inflection point may have a positive impact on risky assets [33][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview for the Week - Market risk appetite fluctuated. Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US stocks rising and A - shares falling. Bond yields mostly declined, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Gold prices soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 20.78, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel [2][5][10] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance. Developed markets' stocks mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7%. Emerging markets' stocks mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 1.47%. The US government shutdown, tariff risks, and domestic economic data all affected the stock market. The US stock market's volatility is expected to increase, and the domestic stock market has a correction pressure [11][12] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.01%. The US government shutdown, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and concerns about the Sino - US tariff negotiation all influenced the bond market. The decline space of US Treasury yields is limited [15][17][18] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.55% to 98.43, and most non - US currencies rebounded. Offshore RMB rose 0.26%, the euro rose 0.3%, the pound rose 0.49%, the yen rose 0.38%, the Swiss franc rose 0.79%, the real rebounded 2%, and the Australian dollar, South Korean won, and rand closed higher, while the Canadian dollar, rupee, and Thai baht closed lower [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold soared 5.8% to $4251 per ounce, hitting a new high. Brent crude oil dropped 5.5% to $60.9 per barrel. The Sino - US trade friction and Fed Chairman Powell's speech affected the commodity market. Gold may face a short - term correction risk [27][28] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The US government shutdown led to the non - release of inflation data. US local banks had a blow - up due to the negative impact of commercial real - estate non - performing assets. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet in a few months. The short - term confrontation between China and the US has cooled down, and the market will continue to be volatile, with the US dollar index expected to decline [33][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's Q3 GDP and the 20th - 23rd 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Tuesday: The Fed holds a payment innovation meeting - Wednesday: UK's September CPI - Thursday: US's September existing - home sales - Friday: US's September CPI, France, Germany, the Eurozone, UK, and US's October manufacturing PMI [35]

Group 1 - Gold has outperformed major indices in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of over 66%, while the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P indices have seen maximum increases of approximately 28%, 54%, and 40% respectively [1] - The probability of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is high, potentially exceeding market expectations, which could lead to a new wave of gold price increases, with a target of around $4,500 [1][6] - The recent Beige Book report indicates a weakening U.S. economic momentum, with only 3 out of 12 districts showing slight to moderate growth, supporting the Fed's dovish stance on interest rates [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown and new tariff policies are expected to further strain the economy, with estimates suggesting a GDP reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown [5] - A prolonged government shutdown could increase the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.8% and result in a $30 billion loss in consumer spending over a month [5] - The Fed may need to expand its rate-cutting measures to prevent an economic recession, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in October [6] Group 3 - The Fed's balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) may end sooner than expected, with major banks suggesting it could conclude by the end of this year rather than Q1 of next year [7] - Ending the balance sheet reduction would shift the Fed's approach from "draining" to "injecting" liquidity into the market, which typically lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [9] - Both interest rate cuts and the potential end of balance sheet reduction indicate a significant improvement in market liquidity, which could drive funds towards gold [9]

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing significant asset declines, while gold prices are rising due to ongoing geopolitical instability [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming October meeting is crucial, as key economic data is unavailable due to the government shutdown, making Powell's statements particularly important [3][5] - Powell's strategy includes cautious interest rate cuts and an end to balance sheet reduction to prevent liquidity issues [5][7] Group 2 - The Fed's simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction create a challenging liquidity environment, reminiscent of the 2019 liquidity crisis [7][9] - Trump's recent trade actions, including increased tariffs on Chinese goods, add to market volatility, despite the potential legal challenges to these tariffs [9][11] - The U.S. economy is under pressure from high inflation and employment issues, making aggressive trade actions risky [11][13] Group 3 - Investors should accept market volatility as a norm and consider defensive sectors like consumer and healthcare, which are less affected by economic fluctuations [15] - Structural opportunities may arise post-balance sheet reduction, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, but caution is advised regarding export-related companies due to ongoing trade conflicts [17]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility and requires a thorough adjustment to sustain long-term growth [1] - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue its decline, and investors should avoid trying to catch falling stocks [1][2] - The upcoming policy announcements in October and the Federal Reserve's meeting are unlikely to change the market's bottom-seeking process [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index has limited downside, with key support levels at the 60-day moving average and the bottom of the trading range [2] - The focus has shifted to the main board, as the growth stocks in the ChiNext index show no signs of recovery [2] - Investors are advised to either remain in cash or hold light positions until the adjustment period concludes, expected around late November or early December [2] Group 3 - A significant upcoming event is the potential end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT), which could greatly impact the capital markets [3] - The market is likely to experience a shift due to the combination of the end of QT and subsequent interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - The current market correction is viewed as a necessary step for future upward movement, maintaining a slow bull market outlook [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver continued to be strong with large intraday fluctuations. The US government shutdown and tariff frictions increased market uncertainty, and the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction strengthened the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, but in the short term, the rising speed of gold and silver is too fast, with obvious overbought signs on the disk and high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Fed Governor Milan called for an accelerated pace of interest - rate cuts, but the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP, and he said that two more rate cuts this year are realistic; apart from gold, there is no risk premium in the market [1] Other Summaries US Economic Situation - The Federal Reserve said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, and the employment level has generally remained stable. Overall consumer spending has declined slightly, while prices continue to rise, and several Fed districts reported an accelerated increase in input costs. The cost increase caused by tariffs has been reported in many districts, but the degree of transmission of these higher costs to final prices varies [2] International Events - The Trump administration authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela, and Trump confirmed this news. Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume operations at his order [2]

| Milli | 国控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银延续强势,日内维持较大波动。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声 强化货币宽松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显,波动风险较 大，观望为主。 ★美联储理事米兰呼吁加快降息步伐,但（单次）降息幅度无需超过50BP，其称今年再降息两次是观实的; 除了黄金，看不到市场中已包含风险溢价。 ★美国联邦储备委员会表示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，就业水平总体保持稳定。根据美联储周三发布 的对各联储辖区商业联络人所作调查的褐皮书报告，整体消费者支出小幅回落。与此同时，价格继续上涨， 几个联储辖区报告投入成本上升速度加快。美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday (October 15), the domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with most industrial products falling and most agricultural products rising [1] - For the black series, the steel market lacks positive drivers, the post - holiday supply - demand pattern is weak, and the inventory has increased significantly. The price increase pressure persists [1] - For basic metals, market risk preference has declined, but the cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [1] - For energy and chemical products, international oil prices have hit new lows, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term [1] - For oils and fats and oilseeds, the domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support, but there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Commodity Futures Market Performance - Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 4.25%; metals all rose, with silver rising 2.30%; oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybeans rising 0.76%; agricultural and sideline products all rose, with corn rising 0.67% [1] - Energy products led the losses, with low - sulfur fuel oil falling 1.90%; non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass falling 1.74%; the black series mostly fell, with iron ore falling 1.46%; basic metals were mixed, with zinc falling 1.17%; chemicals mostly fell, with asphalt falling 1.10%; new energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate falling 0.60% [1] 3.2 Black Series - The five major steel product inventories increased by 8.68% week - on - week to 1.60072 billion tons last week, with the increase much higher than 3.65% in the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 19.5%. The accumulated inventory needs time to digest, exports face new challenges, and steel supply is expected to remain high, resulting in prominent fundamental contradictions and continuous price increase pressure [1] 3.3 Basic Metals - In the copper market, the intensification of Sino - US game has boosted risk - aversion sentiment and weakened global economic growth expectations. The cost side still supports the medium - term copper price, and short - term copper prices are expected to continue high - level fluctuations [1] 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products - International oil prices hit new lows since early May, and short - term oil prices may fluctuate and repair, but the price center may move down in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty of the macro - level [1] 3.5 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - The domestic oils and fats market currently lacks positive support and is in a weak adjustment. The export data of Malaysian palm oil has improved, and there is still upward momentum in the medium to long term. The supply of South American soybeans is expected to be strong, and domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are under pressure. In the short term, grains may continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3.6 Index Performance - The Guomao Commodity Composite Index rose 0.98% from October 14 to October 15 [1] - The Guomao Bulk Commodity Index rose 0.15% [1] - The Guomao Non - Metallic Mineral Products Index rose 0.13% [1] - The Guomao Agricultural and Sideline Products Index fell 0.66% [1] - The Guomao Petroleum and Oil Index rose 1.03% [1] - The Guomao Primary Chemicals Index rose 0.04% [1] - The Guomao Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Index rose 0.27% [1]

鲍威尔一席话，全球市场闻风而动。 美东时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上的重要讲话，为即将于10月28日至29日召开的美联储议息会议定下了基调。 鲍威尔明确表示，自9月会议以来，美国经济前景"基本保持不变"。他重申美联储正面临艰难平衡：行动太快可能导致抗通胀成果半途而废，而行动太迟则 会给劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。 尽管美国政府停摆导致关键经济数据发布受阻，但鲍威尔的讲话传递出清晰信号——美联储将继续保持宽松政策方向。 01 就业市场疲态：降息的关键推动力 鲍威尔在讲话中多次强调劳动力市场正在呈现疲软态势，这一表态成为市场判断美联储政策走向的关键线索。 他指出，美国经济正处于 "低招聘、低裁员"的异常时期，但这种情况可能已接近极限。 "职位空缺的持续下降可能很快反映在失业率上，" 鲍威尔的这一担忧引发了市场广泛关注。 美国失业率已在8月升至4.3%，创下过去一年新高。由于政府停摆，9月份非农就业报告被迫推迟发布，这使得市场对劳动力状况的判断变得更加困难。 鲍威尔坦言："我们很快就会开始错过数据，特别是10月的核心数据。如果停摆持续下去，数据甚至不会被收集。" 02 通胀形 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the energy and metals markets is influenced by factors such as international trade tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. For example,中美 trade frictions and the US government shutdown have added uncertainties to the markets [2][3]. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Mid - term outlook is bearish. Supply surplus expectations and inventory increases are pressuring the market. Short - term, attention should be on the impact of China - US talks during the APAC meeting on risk sentiment [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver have a solid long - term upward trend but are overbought in the short - term with high volatility risks, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Implement a strategy of selling call options with a strike price of 90,000 yuan and buying put options with a strike price of 84,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, it will likely trade in a range, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential [5]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak, and stainless steel has a weak fundamental outlook. The market is influenced by Sino - US frictions, and inventory changes are also a factor [8]. - **Tin**: Hold existing short positions and sold call options [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a short - term risk of correction due to high inventory levels and Sino - US frictions [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Although the futures price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the fundamental situation is not favorable, and the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price may remain stable, considering supply changes and cost support [12]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, high production, and cost decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [12]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels, affected by supply - demand changes, trade frictions, and port fee policies [13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are oscillating. The market is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies [14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Demand is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [16][17]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The October contract is expected to decline, while the December and February contracts may have limited short - term downside due to peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' capacity control in November [18]. - **Fuel - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but faces medium - term pressure. Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread when the geopolitical situation eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from abundant supply [19]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but it will face pressure in the later part of Q4 due to expected inventory increase and crude oil price decline [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It shows resistance at low levels but lacks significant positive support [21]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and the market is likely to remain weak, with limited support from future demand improvement [22]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by port - related news. Continued attention should be paid to port inventory and Sino - US trade relations [23]. - **Pure Benzene and Benzene - Related Products**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate. Benzene - related products face challenges such as weak downstream demand and high - import volume expectations [24][25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may decline weakly due to high supply and trade frictions. Caustic soda is expected to have limited downside [27]. - **PX and PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and prices are likely to remain weak [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pay attention to the support at the integer level and the performance of the raw material market [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is affected by raw material prices and trade frictions. Bottle - chip may face challenges due to over - capacity and weakening demand [30]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation with high inventory and limited downstream demand. Consider low - buying opportunities near the cost [31]. - **Rubber**: Demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is high. It's advisable to wait and see [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a state of supply surplus, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds with caution near the cost [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - Agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as international trade relations, government policies, and weather conditions. Uncertainties from Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations and the US government shutdown have added complexity to the markets [34][36]. Summary by Commodity - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient in Q4, but there may be a supply shortage in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is currently in a data - vacuum period, and it's advisable to wait and see [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient than meals. Wait for the price to bottom out and then consider long - positions [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations, the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Consider using rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - product strategies [36]. - **Corn**: The price is at a relatively low level and may be approaching a short - term bottom. Pay attention to new - grain listing and weather - related impacts [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Hogs**: Spot prices are rebounding, but futures are weak. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which may support prices in the second half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are slightly rising, but futures are weak. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [40]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The market is weak due to Sino - US trade tensions, high supply expectations, and weak demand. It's advisable to wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: International supply is abundant, and the domestic market is focused on the new - season production estimate. Pay attention to weather and crop growth [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. Although the spot market is strong, the expected high inventory may limit the upside [43]. - **Timber**: The price is weak. Supply is low, and demand is lackluster. It's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Pay attention to port inventory changes [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The financial markets, including stock and bond markets, are influenced by domestic economic data, international trade relations, and geopolitical events. Market sentiment and style rotation need to be closely monitored [46][47]. Summary by Product - **Stock Index**: The market is showing signs of recovery. Pay attention to economic data, trade relations, and policy changes. Consider increasing exposure to technology - growth sectors in the medium - term, but be aware of potential style rotation [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a repair phase. Short - term, interest rates may oscillate widely at high levels. The yield curve is expected to stop steepening [47].