美国总统特朗普周三表示，他认为美联储下调美国基准利率这件事 "没什么可怀疑的"。 特朗普在接受美国媒体采访时称，他相信自己提名的下任美联储主席人选凯文・沃什，能够理解他希望 下调利率的立场。当被问及沃什是否清楚他希望其下调利率时，特朗普回应道："我认为他是清楚的， 而且我觉得即便没有我的要求，他本身也打算这么做。"他还补充道："我的意思是，如果他过来跟我 说'我想要加息'，他根本就得不到这个职位，绝对不可能。" 新主席提名进程受阻 联邦基金利率期货定价显示，市场预期今年美联储首次降息或发生在7月，而新美联储主席首次亮相的6 月概率仅为56%。 上任挑战不小 特朗普上一次提名美联储主席时，曾偕鲍威尔现身白宫玫瑰园共同出席活动。但这一次，特朗普通过社 交媒体宣布提名凯文・沃什接替鲍威尔，而自那以后，沃什便再未公开露面。 近30年来，发表公开表态早已是美联储主席提名流程中的常规环节。因此，沃什这次的举动让外界有些 惊讶与失望。市场人士表示，沃什过去数日的沉默，或许正是美联储 "减少发声"的首个信号，而这也 是沃什希望改变美联储运作模式的方式之一。自2011年卸任美联储理事以来，沃什对美联储的一贯批评 点之一，便是美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent nomination of Kevin to the Federal Reserve signifies a significant shift back to a more conservative monetary policy approach, marking a return to traditionalism after the aggressive monetary policies adopted post-2008 financial crisis [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's shift under Kevin is seen as a reconstruction of market pricing paradigms, moving away from expansive monetary policies like quantitative easing and zero interest rates, which have dominated for over a decade [2]. - The anticipated "violent" balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve is supported by the current U.S. economic conditions, which are deemed capable of withstanding such changes without significant adverse effects [3]. - The combination of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts is expected to create a more manageable yield curve for U.S. Treasury, thereby enhancing the Treasury's influence over the dollar's value [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Risk Management - Market participants are urged to prepare for the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, as expectations alone can lead to significant adjustments in investment structures and market narratives [3]. - The recent sharp decline in the net asset value of certain commodity funds, such as the Guotai Junan UBS Silver LOF, highlights the extreme risks present in the market, prompting a need for reflection on trading rules and risk mitigation strategies [4]. - It is suggested that allowing markets to clear without trading restrictions, despite potential volatility, may better manage overall risk compared to imposing limits that could exacerbate panic and losses [4]. Group 3: Strategic Preparations for Investors - Investors are advised to assess potential dollar asset premiums and global liquidity risks, preparing multiple strategies for risk mitigation, particularly in precious metals [5]. - Maintaining sufficient dollar liquidity and managing the duration of foreign exchange asset allocations are critical to reducing exposure to liquidity risks [5]. - The emphasis is on proactive preparation for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction to ensure a controlled and predictable investment environment amidst the complexities of the international economic landscape [5].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to lead to significant adjustments in market investment structures and narratives, marking a return to a more conservative monetary policy paradigm since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Warsh's nomination, the US dollar index rose, and precious metals like gold and silver experienced significant price fluctuations, indicating a potential restructuring of market pricing paradigms and narratives [2]. - The anticipated end of expansionary monetary policies, such as quantitative easing, is likely to strengthen the dollar's credit system and alter global risk asset pricing mechanisms [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current US economic conditions are deemed capable of withstanding a "violent" balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, which could lower interest costs for the Treasury and enhance its influence over dollar pricing [2]. - The US economy is entering a mid-to-high growth phase, which increases its resilience against the impacts of aggressive balance sheet reduction [2]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Market participants are urged to prepare for potential market volatility risks associated with the Fed's balance sheet reduction, as expectations alone can trigger adjustments in investment structures [3]. - There is a need for prudent risk mitigation strategies, including institutional safeguards, to manage extreme market conditions effectively [4]. Group 4: Global Implications - China is advised to assess potential dollar asset premiums and global dollar liquidity risks, preparing multiple risk mitigation strategies, particularly in precious metals [5]. - Investors should control their exposure to arbitrage risks and align their risk profiles with their capacity to bear risks, ensuring preparedness for the Fed's potential balance sheet reduction impacts [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年02月04日 | 固 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 定 | | | | | | | | [T分ab析le师_Author] | 张河生 | : | 收 | Tel: | 021-53686158 | 益 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 周 | 编号: | SAC | S0870523100004 | 报 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] | 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好 | | | | | | | 高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 30 | | 《结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 21 | | 《投资者风险偏好高企》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 13 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, plans to significantly reduce the Fed's large balance sheet, suggesting that a reduction of approximately $1 trillion equates to a 50 basis point rate cut, which could optimize liquidity structure and create more flexible policy space for future monetary adjustments [1] - Mizuho Securities issued a warning that this balance sheet reduction plan may backfire, as the current reserve levels are nearly at their limit, which is essential for the orderly functioning of the federal funds market [1] - Historically, the U.S. has maintained financial market stability through an ample reserves framework, with the Fed holding a large amount of U.S. Treasuries to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system; reducing the balance sheet could lead to reserve scarcity, potentially causing overdrafts in bank accounts and increased overnight borrowing demand, amplifying market volatility and weakening the Fed's control over short-term interest rate targets [1] Group 2 - Konstantin proposed that if the balance sheet reduction continues, the optimal path would be to reference the proposal by Dallas Fed President Logan from September last year, linking the overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries to a core short-term benchmark, replacing the current federal funds rate [2] - This adjustment would require the Fed to take more proactive measures in daily monetary market operations to hedge against the volatility risks brought by the balance sheet reduction, while also encouraging eligible counterparties to increase the frequency of using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [2] - Despite banks generally having concerns about borrowing directly from the central bank, the normalization of SRF usage could become an effective tool for balance sheet reduction and encourage banks to hold more Treasuries, thereby reducing financing risks [2]

就现实条件而言，美联储资产负债表目前约为6.6万亿美元，虽然仍高于疫情前水平，但已较历史高点显著回落。即便未来继续缩减，其节奏和幅度也会受 到多重约束。一方面，过快收缩可能引发美元融资紧张、国债市场波动或银行准备金不足，迫使政策方向被迫调整；另一方面，现行监管框架对银行准备金 规模和资产结构有明确要求，而准备金的重要来源之一正是央行的资产购买行为。 在外界讨论潜在的美联储领导人可能采取何种政策路径时，一个核心关注点在于：如果新任主席倾向于收缩央行资产负债表，这是否必然对金融市场构成冲 击。围绕这一问题，越来越多的研究和实践经验表明，央行资产负债表规模与股市表现之间，已不再存在过去那种简单直接的联动关系。 因此，即便央行领导层在理念上更倾向于缩表，实际操作空间仍取决于金融体系的稳定性和监管条件的配合。在多位市场分析人士看来，未来即使尝试进一 步量化紧缩，也更可能是一种谨慎、渐进的过程，而非激进调整。 在全球金融危机后的多年里，美联储通过量化宽松政策大规模购买资产，其资产负债表扩张与股市上涨几乎同步，市场一度形成"流动性决定风险资产价 格"的共识。然而，自2022年美联储转向量化紧缩、逐步回收流动性以来，这种关系 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在金融行业身经百战的华尔街老兵——即来自知名经纪商Tradition Dubai的全球宏观策略顾问史蒂文·梅杰( Steven Major)在最新采访中表示，市场对于长期以来立场鹰派的沃什将担任美联储主席的抛售反应过于夸张，且市场误判了这 位新美联储主席的实际货币政策立场。这位"华尔街老兵"强调，预计由凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)领导的美联储可能会把基准利率 下调得远超市场预期。 无独有偶，华尔街金融巨头高盛几乎同一时间发布研报称，仅凭沃什此前在美联储担任理事时期的鹰派言论判断其政策取向是 错误的，高盛策略师团队在研报中指出："在我们看来，至少表示愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件。" 高盛强调，市场往往习惯性地误读新任美联储主席的初始货币政策立场，而市场对于近几届获得美国总统提名的下任美联储主 席立场判断都曾在上任第一年出现过显著的"市场抛售误导解读"——即投资者们正在经历又一次对新任美联储主席立场的"误 判周期"，需要时间让市场适应新任美联储主席的沟通风格。 准备迎接由沃什掌舵的美联储大幅降息 沃什曾任美联储货币政策决策者——曾经创下美联储史上最年轻理事的纪录，过往一直对美国高 ...

在金融行业身经百战的华尔街老兵——即来自知名经纪商Tradition Dubai的全球宏观策略顾问史蒂文.梅杰(Steven Major)在最新 采访中表示，市场对于长期以来立场鹰派的沃什将担任美联储主席的抛售反应过于夸张，且市场误判了这位新美联储主席的实 际货币政策立场。这位"华尔街老兵"强调，预计由凯文.沃什(Kevin Warsh)领导的美联储可能会把基准利率下调得远超市场预 期。 无独有偶，华尔街金融巨头高盛几乎同一时间发布研报称，仅凭沃什此前在美联储担任理事时期的鹰派言论判断其政策取向是 错误的，高盛策略师团队在研报中指出："在我们看来，至少表示愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件。" 从贵金属市场以及股债市场的走势来看，市场当前的认知在于，凯文.沃什若担任美联储主席，将是相对而言立场和政策基调更 传统，不像贝莱德的里德尔那样对于市场更加友好——毕竟担任贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官的里德尔更了解如何与市场沟 通，在这种情况下，市场开始定价——未来可能会看到更少次数的降息。 在债券市场方面，美国国债周二守住阵地，2年期收益率稳定徘徊于3.58%，10年期美债收益率稳定于4.3%附近。债券市场似乎 一致认 ...

关注季度再融资计划 2026.02. 03 本文字数：2575，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 美债市场正在密切关注将于当地时间周三（2月4日）公布的季度再融资拍卖计划声明。 市场预计财政部短期内仍将维持发债政策稳定，但在财政赤字压力、全球超长期债券需求减弱以及政府政策目标变化的背景下，任何细微措辞调整都可 能成为债市波动的重要触发点。 同时，市场也关注美联储在美债市场中的角色。美联储此前通过购买短期美国国债再次扩大其资产负债表，以缓解隔夜拆解市场压力。而最新被美国总 统特朗普任命为美联储主席继任者的沃什（Kevin Warsh）又主张缩表。美债市场仍在试图对沃什的任命进行计价。 美债投资者目前仍普遍预计，美国财政部将在周三的关键声明中避免对债务发行计划做出任何重大调整。不过，鉴于特朗普政府近期在金融领域采取了 一系列更具进攻性的政策操作，市场仍高度警惕财政部是否会意外出手，以压低长期收益率。 计价沃什美联储时代 去年12月，美联储宣布将每月购买400亿美元国库券直至4月，此举主要出于银行准备金管理，而非货币政策调整，但客观上减少了财政部向私人部门 出售国库券的压力，为短债融资提供空间。 更重 ...

"这意味着市场应该做好准备，迎接一个既更加难以预测，但同时又更加正统的美联储。" 美债市场正在密切关注将于当地时间周三（2月4日）公布的季度再融资拍卖计划声明。 市场预计财政部短期内仍将维持发债政策稳定，但在财政赤字压力、全球超长期债券需求减弱以及政府政策目标变化的背景下，任何细微措辞调整都可能成 为债市波动的重要触发点。 同时，市场也关注美联储在美债市场中的角色。美联储此前通过购买短期美国国债再次扩大其资产负债表，以缓解隔夜拆解市场压力。而最新被美国总统特 朗普任命为美联储主席继任者的沃什（Kevin Warsh）又主张缩表。美债市场仍在试图对沃什的任命进行计价。 美债投资者目前仍普遍预计，美国财政部将在周三的关键声明中避免对债务发行计划做出任何重大调整。不过，鉴于特朗普政府近期在金融领域采取了一系 列更具进攻性的政策操作，市场仍高度警惕财政部是否会意外出手，以压低长期收益率。 具体而言，市场预计下周的季度再融资拍卖预计规模为1250亿美元，与2024年5月以来的规模持平，具体包括：2月10日，拍卖580亿美元3年期国债；2月11 日，拍卖420亿美元10年期国债；2月12日，拍卖250亿美元30年期国债。 ...