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标普全球:7月美国CPI数据将成为新一周的关键经济指标
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 04:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the upcoming US CPI data for July is a crucial economic indicator, especially in the context of rising inflation expectations due to tariff policies [1] - Despite recent tariff developments, including increased tariffs on August 7 and a proposed 100% tariff threat on chips, the overall consumer price increase in the US for Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - The S&P Global US PMI data, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI trends, suggests that inflation may rise in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future price acceleration [1] Group 2 - The forthcoming CPI data will be essential in confirming whether prices began to accelerate in July, which is critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Given the potential volatility in prices, the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach [1]
美股三大指数集体收涨,纳指创收盘新高,苹果单周飙升13%领跑科技股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 00:55
| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 229.350c | 9.320 | 4.24% | -8.19% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 202.090c | 4.810 | 2.44% | 6.37% | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 329.650c | 7.380 | 2.29% | -18.37% | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 182.700c | 1.930 | 1.07% | 36.07% | | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) 769.300c | | 7.470 | 0.98% | 31.61% | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 522.040c | 1.200 | 0.23% | 24.33% | | TI SM(AMAZON) | 222.690c -0.440 | | -0.20% | 1.50% | 除科技股外,银行股和能源股也普遍上扬。美国银行上涨超2%,花旗、摩根士丹利和富国银行均涨超 1%。能源板块中,雪佛龙、康菲石油和西方石油均涨超1 ...
五年期通胀预期飙至 3 月来最高!美联储内讧:有人说 "关税通胀可无视",有人警告 "要熬到 2026 年"
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 13:02
五年期预期创三月来新高,关税阴影成关键变量 短期冲击与长期结构性风险的博弈 通胀预期的升温,恰好撞上美联储货币政策决策的敏感窗口期。尽管上周美联储会议以多数票决定维持 利率不变,延续 "观望" 姿态,但内部对如何应对当前局势的分歧正日益凸显,而关税引发的通胀争议 成为分歧的核心焦点。 美联储理事沃勒的立场相对宽松,他明确表示,可以 "忽视" 关税带来的通胀冲击,因为这类影响本质 上是 "暂时性的"。沃勒在上周会议中曾支持小幅降息 25 个基点,即便最终决议是维持利率不变,他的 态度也反映出部分官员对经济增速放缓的担忧 —— 在他看来,关税推高的物价只是短期扰动,不会改 变通胀长期向目标收敛的趋势,因此无需为这种 "暂时现象" 调整长期利率路径。 与沃勒形成对比的是博斯蒂克的谨慎态度。博斯蒂克虽表示 "仍预计今年会有一次降息",但同时强 调,关税对供应链的重塑可能带来 "更持久的成本压力",如果这种压力转化为工资 - 物价螺旋上升,美 联储可能需要重新评估政策立场。这种分歧背后,是对经济基本面判断的差异:沃勒更关注近期就业增 长放缓、消费支出疲态等 "软数据",认为需要通过降息提振需求;博斯蒂克则更警惕通胀预期 ...
莹观天下|美联储理事“换人”,特朗普下一步会如何布局美联储
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 06:13
齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 王晓莹 近日,美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)再次顶住来自总统特朗普的降息压力、连续第五次决定维持利率不变后,这个机构最近出现了令 人瞩目的人事变动:阿德里亚娜·库格勒突然宣布辞去理事职务,重返乔治敦大学任教。经过几天的舆论猜测后,特朗普7日提名白宫经 济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰填补库格勒留下的的空缺。他近日还表示,已把美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选范围缩小到了4人。 辞职的库格勒(左)与特朗普新提名的斯蒂芬·米兰 辞职时机微妙 对于继续维持利率不变的决定,美联储公开市场委员会发布公告说,尽管净出口波动继续影响数据,但近期指标显示上半年经济活动放 缓,失业率依然维持在低位,就业市场条件依然稳固,通胀仍处于较高水平。经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位,委员会致力于实现充 分就业并让通胀回落至2%的目标。 鲍威尔在7月30日举行的记者会上表示,实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他说,美联储尚未就9月份货币政策作出决定,这 取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 美联储的最新决定符合市场预期,但不符合特朗普的预期。自今年1月份的议息会议以来,美联储连续维持利率不变。这遭到特朗普以及 部分 ...
宝城期货资讯早班车-20250808
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]
【UNFX课堂】美PMI预警滞涨风险:美联储政策面临严峻考验
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 07:05
Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]
利好突袭!深夜,暴涨!
券商中国· 2025-08-06 16:07
业绩的利好彻底引爆。 Astera Labs股价一度暴涨超34%。财报显示,今年第二季度收入为1.919亿美元,同比大幅增长150%,高于市 场预期,并上调第三季度业绩指引。 受业绩超预期刺激,今晚美股开盘后,多家巨头股价集体飙涨,其中电商巨头Shopify一度暴涨超23%,号 称"小英伟达"的Astera Labs盘初最高暴涨超34%,AI巨头Arista Networks一度大涨超17%。 与此同时,美联储降息预期升温也点燃了美股市场的做多热情。美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利在最新的 采访中表示,美国劳动力市场正在降温,今年美联储降息两次是合理的。据芝商所(CME)"美联储观察",9 月降息25个基点的概率已飙升至93.2%。 深夜暴涨 北京时间8月6日晚间,美股开盘后,三大指数震荡走强,截至23:30,道指涨0.33%,纳指涨0.83%,标普500指 数涨0.67%。 美股大型科技股多数上涨,苹果大涨超5%,带动科技七巨头指数大幅走高。据最新消息,苹果承诺将在美国 再投入1000亿美元用于本土制造。一位白宫官员表示,特朗普将于今日宣布这一消息。苹果此前已宣布,计划 未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元,其 ...
闪评丨美联储新理事会成为鲍威尔继任者吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 13:05
当地时间8月5日,美国总统特朗普表示将在本周内提名新的美联储理事,以接替将在8月8日提前离任的阿德里亚娜· 库格勒。多家外媒报道称,特朗普有可能会提名他心目中的下任美联储主席进入理事会。 刘英:"特朗普可以任命与白宫意见相近,也就是当下倾向于较快降息或者较大幅度降息的人担任新理事,进而影响 美联储的决策。继任者有可能想比较快地降息,去满足特朗普政府的要求。而美联储主席鲍威尔则可能会根据数 据、根据美国经济增长的客观情况来安排降息与否。所以在一些观点方面有可能会出现分歧,有可能导致决策复杂 化。" 而关于鲍威尔继任者的具体人选,特朗普5日表示,候选人包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会 主任凯文·哈塞特等人。 特朗普称前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特都在考虑之列(彭博社报道截图) 在刘英看来,最终谁能取得这一职位,取决于谁的立场更符合特朗普政府的经济政策基调。 刘英:"前美联储理事凯文·沃什在美联储的决策里面有更多的经验,所以他作为美联储主席是有可能的。但另外一 位,凯文·哈塞特其实更了解白宫的经济政策走向。所以(谁继任)不好说。更关键的是要看他们两位谁比较靠近特 朗 ...
特朗普又出惊人言论?新浪财经社区:比新闻更快,比分析更深
Xin Lang Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The news regarding Trump's consideration of Powell's successor has caused significant market reactions and discussions, highlighting the importance of timely information in investment decisions [1][4]. Group 1: Community Insights - The speed of information dissemination in the Sina Finance community is likened to lightning, allowing users to stay ahead of market trends and discussions [4]. - The community features a diverse range of financial professionals, experts, and seasoned investors, providing a platform for various analyses and discussions on significant news events [5][6]. - Users share their investment strategies in response to major events, such as opportunities in U.S. stocks, gold, or foreign exchange markets, offering practical insights for other investors [6]. Group 2: Quality of Content - Sina Finance community emphasizes the principle of "content is king," ensuring that valuable information stands out while minimizing noise [9]. - The community employs unique recommendation and filtering mechanisms to promote high-quality posts and comments, making it a valuable resource for investors seeking in-depth analyses and insights [9].
美国经济面临临界点丨孙长忠专栏
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 19,000 jobs, the lowest in nine months, and previous months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [1][2] - The unemployment rate remains stable, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points in July, indicating that despite low job growth, the labor market is not in a state of crisis [3][4] - Labor force participation has been declining since May, with a total decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year by July, reaching the lowest level since November 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the end of July, but there were notable dissenting votes from two board members, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy in light of the employment data [2][3] - The PCE price index showed a rebound, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% in Q2, suggesting that inflation pressures are still present, albeit at a moderated level [5] - The quality of employment is declining as the actual number of employed individuals decreases, with long-term unemployment rising to 1.83 million, the highest level since 2017, excluding the pandemic [4][5]