来源：涨基财富 近期黄金价格突破3800美元/盎司，创历史新高，年内涨幅已超38%。 多家权威机构持续看多金价，其中高盛指出，在极端情景下（如美联储独立性受质疑导致资金从美债转 向黄金），金价可能触及5000美元/盎司。摩根大通、瑞银等机构也普遍看好金价中长期站上4000美 元。 以下是主要黄金基金类型及其特点： 1、黄金ETF，通过持有黄金现货合约跟踪黄金价格的基金，在证券交易所上市交易，支持T+0交易（当 日可买卖），交易效率最高，资金实时到账。 这些机构看涨黄金的逻辑主要集中在以下几个方面： 1、央行持续购金：各国央行是黄金市场的重要买家。世界黄金协会报告指出，央行们计划在未来五年 内增加黄金持有量，同时减少美元储备。 2、美联储货币政策转向预期：市场普遍预期美联储将进入降息周期。降息通常会压低美元价值和债券 收益率，从而提振黄金这类非生息资产的价格。 3、对美联储独立性的担忧：高盛指出，若美联储的独立性受到质疑（例如面临政治压力），可能导致 通胀预期上升、美元信誉受损，从而触发资金从美元资产流向黄金。他们测算，若有1%的私人持有美 债资金转向黄金，金价就可能接近5000美元。 4、地缘政治与经济不确定 ...

政府关门迫在眉睫 ——全球经济观察第 14 期 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.09.27 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《美国零售仍有韧性——全球经济观察第 13 期》 2025-09-20 2.《初请失业金人数创新高——全球经济观 察第 12 期》 2025-09-13 3.《美国就业全面降温——全球经济观察第 11 期》 2025-09-06 4.《特朗普降息再施压——全球经济观察第 10 期》 2025-08-30 5.《美国房地产市场仍弱——全球经济观察 第 9 期》 2025-08-23 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 全球资产价格：金价继续上行。股市方面，日欧市场上涨，而美股市场下 跌。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下 跌 0.9%、0.8 和 0.7%。债市方面，全球国债收益率普遍上行，10 年期美债 收益率上行 6bp。商品方面，原油价格上涨，WTI 原油和布伦特原油本周分 别上涨 2.7%和 2.5%，伦敦金价上 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are becoming a significant factor in the pricing of the U.S. equity market, with expectations of a bull market rising among investors [1][2] - Following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock indices, major U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average averaging a drop of 79 basis points over three trading days [1] - The Fed's monetary policy challenges are highlighted by the potential for a declining dollar index if interest rate cut expectations are reinforced, which could lead to reduced capital inflows into the U.S. and subsequent economic downturns [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government's increasing debt, which exceeds 123% of GDP, complicates the Fed's ability to manage monetary policy effectively while addressing inflation concerns [3] - The Fed's strategy may involve small adjustments to interest rates to gauge market reactions, balancing the need for economic growth against inflation control [3][4] - The challenge for the Fed lies in preventing a consensus on market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which could lead to frequent re-pricing of these expectations [4]

作者丨肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 在美联储降息靴子正式落地，以及点阵图显示年底还有两次降息的背景下，充裕的流动性正 日渐成为美国权益市场定价的决定性因素，市场普遍预计美股牛市可期并情绪高涨。 但当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔对美国股市股指偏高的言论，为这种预期泼了一盆冷 水。在鲍威尔表态后，美国主要股指随即全线下挫。9月23日至25日，标普500、纳斯达克和 道琼斯工业指数连续三个交易日下跌，三大股指平均跌去了79个基点，美股牛市预期遭受重 创。 在美国经济学界，研究政治与商业周期的文献五花八门。受美国选民政治的规则博弈，强劲 的经济增长，是现任总统能否实现连任成功的关键。即使这种经济增长只是表面的繁华，但 如果时机合适，也是斩获票仓的重要助力。公开数据显示， 当前美国债务占GDP的比重已超 过123%，远超国际货币基金组织（IMF）90%的警戒线 。 这或许可以解释，为什么自年初以来，美元指数持续下行、美债收益率波动幅度加大和黄金 价格不断走高。在脆弱的财政体系下，美国政府不断通过"提高债务上限+强化短债发行解 决'近渴'"方式续命，这使得自2020年以来，海外债券市场对美国经 ...

| 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 46174.23 | 22380.21 | 6622.17 | | +226.91 +0.49% | -4.49 -0.02% | +17.45 +0.26% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 8516.43 | 24579.75 | 6666.50 | | -149.15 -1.72% | -49.50 -0.20% | +6.75 +0.10% | 记者丨张嘉钰 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾静娇 包芳鸣 当地时间周五（9月26日），美股三大指数集体高开，但随后走势出现分化，截至发稿，道指涨 0.49%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指跌0.02%。 中概股整体回调，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.72%。 经过一轮猛涨"整顿"，市场基本没有看空黄金的声音。 德意志银行表示，黄金价格再度刷新纪录高位，主要是因为避险情绪。该行分析师亨利·艾伦在一份研 报中表示："投资者一方面看好股市，但同时也担忧存在重大下行风险。黄金价格的驱动因素很多，其 中之一就是它被视为避风港"。 9月初，高 ...

记者丨张嘉钰 叶麦穗 编辑丨曾静娇 包芳鸣 当地时间周五（9月26日），美股三大指数集体高开，但随后走势出现分化，截至发稿，道指涨0.49%，标普500指数涨0.26%，纳指跌0.02%。 中概股整体回调，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.72%。 | 美股指数 [^ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 46174.23 | 22380.21 6622.17 | | | +226.91 +0.49% | -4.49 -0.02% +17.45 +0.26% | | | 中国余龙 | 标普500期货 纳指100期货 | | | 8516.43 | 24579.75 6666.50 | | | -149.15 -1.72% | -49.50 -0.20% +6.75 +0.10% | | 热门中概股跌多涨少，金山云跌超11%，大全新能源跌逾8%，哔哩哔哩跌超5%，蔚来跌超6%。 科技七巨头方面，特斯拉涨0.43%，亚马逊涨0.37%，英伟达跌0.9%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌巾一 | | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉(TESLA) ...

非农影响金价？这一问题始终是贵金属投资者关注的核心。每月美国非农就业数据公布前后，国际金价往往迎来明显波动，尤其在 2025 年 "通胀与就业数 据关键" 的市场环境下，非农数据对金价的引导作用更显突出。作为合规的贵金属投资服务机构，金盛贵金属结合实时行情与政策逻辑，为投资者拆解非农 数据与金价的深层关联，助力把握投资机会。 一、非农影响金价？数据逻辑与通胀预期的联动效应 要弄清 "非农影响金价？" 的答案，需先明确非农数据的核心作用 —— 它不仅反映美国就业市场热度，更是美联储判断通胀走势的关键依据。2025 年以 来，美联储多次强调 "通胀与就业数据关键"，若非农就业人数超预期、平均时薪涨幅扩大，市场会担忧通胀反弹，进而预期美联储收紧货币政策（如暂缓 降息），美元走强将压制金价；反之，若非农数据不及预期，意味着就业市场降温，通胀压力缓解，降息预期升温会推动金价上行。 以 2025 年 9 月为例，市场预测美国非农就业人数新增 20 万人，若实际数据低于 18 万人，伦敦金可能从 3740 美元 / 盎司区间向 3780 美元突破；若数据超 22 万人，金价或回调至 3700 美元支撑位。金盛贵金属实时跟踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

Group 1 - The euro has rebounded from a three-week low but remains constrained below 1.1690, with a slight increase observed on Friday after hitting a daily low of 1.1645, although it is expected to see a weekly decline of 0.55% [1] - Strong U.S. GDP growth and a decrease in initial jobless claims have alleviated concerns about the U.S. economy, boosting the dollar and reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][3] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, exceeding the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending, although weak export activity partially offset this growth [3] Group 2 - President Trump announced new tariffs on heavy trucks, brand-name drugs, and cabinets, raising concerns about global trade uncertainty and negatively impacting risk appetite in Asian markets [2][4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of a modest rise in overall PCE inflation to 2.7% [2][4] - Following the release of positive economic data, investors have reduced bets on Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a rate cut in October dropping from over 90% to 87% [3]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250926 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国二季度 GDP 上修，国内反内卷持续推进 海外方面，美国二季度 GDP 终值年化增速上修至 3.8%，创近两年新高，主要受消费强 劲和进口下滑推动；PCE 物价指数维持 2.6%，显示通胀压力仍顽固；上周首申人数大幅回 落至 21.8 万人，创 7 月以来新低。特朗普称 10 月 1 日起，美对厨浴柜加征 50%、药品 100%、 软家具 30%关税。美元指数持续反弹至 98.5，美债利率上行，美股走低，金价高位震荡，油 价走平，铜价回落。今晚关注美国 8 月 PCE 及 9 月密歇根调研软数据。 国内方面，近期各行业反内卷持续推进：①有色金属工业协会召开会议，坚决反对铜冶 炼行业"内卷式"竞争；②农业农村部强化生猪产能综合调控，切实做好保供稳价工作。A 股窄幅震荡偏暖，阿里 AI 进展提振市场风险偏好，双创板块延续领涨，两市超 3800 只个股 收跌、赚钱效应偏弱，成交额走平在 2.4 ...