Employment Data - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 55,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than market expectations[3] - The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[3] Labor Market Insights - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.0%[5] - The number of permanent jobless individuals increased, indicating a rise in long-term unemployment[5] - The private sector saw a loss of 86,000 jobs, with significant declines in education and healthcare services (34,000 jobs lost) and goods manufacturing (25,000 jobs lost)[4][17] Wage and Work Hours - Average hourly earnings were recorded at $37.32, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[6] - The average weekly working hours remained stable at 34.3 hours, reflecting a relatively low operational level for U.S. businesses[6][30] Federal Reserve Outlook - Current employment data is unlikely to significantly influence Federal Reserve decisions, as the labor market has not shown a substantial downturn[7][40] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses risks to global oil prices, which could impact U.S. inflation and economic growth[8][40] - The Federal Reserve may consider 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, with the first cut potentially occurring in May 2026 after the new chair takes office[9][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. non-farm payroll report, highlighting a significant decline in employment and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing inflation and employment concerns [1][3][5]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for February revealed a decrease of 92,000 jobs, marking the second-largest monthly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, while analysts had expected an increase of 55,000 jobs [3][6]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, contrary to expectations of remaining steady at 4.3% [3][6]. - The report indicated widespread job losses across various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, construction, and manufacturing, with the latter reaching a four-year low [6]. - The labor force participation rate fell from 62.5% in January to 62%, the lowest since 2021, particularly affecting the prime working-age group [8]. Wage Growth Insights - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations and contributing to inflationary pressures [7]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials expressed concern over the employment report but indicated they would not rush to change monetary policy based on a single month's data [5][12]. - The report has brought the Fed closer to a scenario it fears: rising inflation coupled with declining employment [5][9]. - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may consider one to two rate cuts within the year, depending on future employment and inflation data [5][12]. Market Reactions - Analysts and economists have varied responses to the employment data, with some stating that the previous optimism regarding employment stability has been shattered [13][14]. - The report has led to a reassessment of the labor market's strength, with some experts labeling the current situation as a mix of weakening employment and potential inflationary pressures [14][15]. - Federal Reserve officials, while acknowledging the disappointing data, have not indicated an immediate need to adjust interest rates, suggesting a cautious approach moving forward [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.89%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.38%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.20%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 1.79% [1]. - In the short - term, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical changes in the Middle East may become normalized. The U.S. employment is strong, inflation pressure still exists, the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level, and the U.S. dollar index is strong [1]. - The air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, affecting the shipping, aviation, and oil industries. The world is facing the threat of rising energy costs and受阻 business activities in the Gulf region, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - The U.S. labor market remains stable, and the labor productivity in the fourth quarter is still strong. The Fed's latest Beige Book report shows that the U.S. economic activity has slightly picked up recently, prices continue to rise, and the employment level remains stable. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are huge differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned [1]. - The market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next rate cut may be in September. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium is still resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex gold active contract closed at $5151.60 per ounce, up 1.02% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; London gold closed at $5148.55 per ounce, up 2.28% from the previous day and down 0.83% from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1140.80 yuan per gram, down 0.97% from the previous day and down 0.62% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1138.46 yuan per gram, down 0.88% from the previous day and down 0.35% from last week [2]. - Positions and inventories: Comex gold positions increased by 3.90% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased by 24.18% from last week; Gold TD positions increased by 0.40% from last week. LBMA inventory remained unchanged, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.48% from last week, and Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex silver active contract closed at $82.52 per ounce, down 1.49% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week; London silver closed at $84.22 per ounce, down 2.96% from the previous day and down 2.56% from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 21639.00 yuan per kilogram, down 0.98% from the previous day and down 4.13% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21068.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.29% from the previous day and down 2.46% from last week [4]. - Positions and inventories: Comex silver positions remained unchanged from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased by 2.15% from the previous day and decreased by 0.04% from last week; Silver TD positions decreased by 3.52% from last week. LBMA inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 2.50% from last week, and Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 16.52% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and up 0.20% from last week [6]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX platinum active contract positions decreased by 1.43% from the previous day and decreased by 0.93% from last week; NYMEX platinum total inventory decreased by 0.89% from last week [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Positions and inventories: NYMEX palladium active contract positions decreased by 24.12% from the previous day and decreased by 57.68% from last week; NYMEX palladium total inventory decreased by 0.32% from last week [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Discount rate: 3.75%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.65%, down 0.25% from the previous value [8]. - Fed's total assets: $66794.27 billion, up $150.57 billion from the previous value [8]. - M2 (year - on - year): 4.29%, up 0.36% from the previous value [8]. - Ten - year U.S. Treasury real yield: 2.43, up 1.67% from the previous day and up 3.40% from last week [8]. - U.S. dollar index: 98.80, down 0.48% from the previous day and up 1.03% from last week [8]. - Other economic data such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are also provided in detail [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices rose on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones up 238.14 points (0.49%) to 48739.41, the Nasdaq up 1.29% to 22807.48, and the S&P 500 up 0.78% to 6869.50, driven by easing tensions in the Middle East and a reduction in concerns over U.S. economic slowdown [3][4]. Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector supported the market, particularly the semiconductor segment, with Micron Technology and AMD both rising over 5%. Broadcom and NVIDIA increased by 1.18% and 1.66%, respectively [4]. Individual Stock Movements - Tesla shares rose by 3.44% after Bank of America reinstated a "Buy" rating on the electric vehicle manufacturer [5]. - Amazon increased by 3.88%, while Meta and Microsoft saw gains of 1.93% and 0.31%, respectively. In contrast, Apple shares fell by 0.47% following the launch of its new MacBook Neo priced at 4599 RMB, marking a significant move into the low-end laptop market [6][7]. Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Positive economic data boosted investor confidence, with the U.S. private sector adding 63,000 jobs in February, the highest since July of the previous year. The ISM services PMI rose from 53.8 to 56.1, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated an optimistic economic outlook, with most regions expecting modest growth in the coming months, despite rising economic uncertainties and consumer spending constraints [10]. Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude near $74.66 per barrel and Brent crude at $81.40 per barrel. The U.S. government announced measures to ensure the safety of oil transport in the Gulf, contributing to the stabilization of oil prices after initial volatility due to geopolitical tensions [11]. Investment Trends - The total assets in U.S. money market funds reached a record high of $8.271 trillion, reflecting a significant inflow of approximately $49 billion in the week ending March 3, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the disturbance of geopolitical shocks to the US dollar index may gradually subside, and fundamental logic will gradually dominate. The US economic fundamentals are the core driver of the current strengthening of the US dollar index. The impact of rising crude oil prices on US dollar liquidity and the Fed's monetary policy has been over - amplified. The strength of the US dollar is not only driven by inflation and policy expectations, but also supported by the resilience of the US economic fundamentals. The impact of the geopolitical conflict on the market is short - term, and market pricing will return to the fundamental line. If the rapid rise of the US dollar index lacks fundamental support, it may give back the geopolitical risk premium after the risk - aversion sentiment fades. The RMB exchange rate may continue to be under pressure in the short term due to the strength of the US dollar and policy adjustments [25]. - In the long term, a protracted war will weaken the fiscal sustainability of the US, which is bearish for the US dollar in the long run. The RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by domestic economic fundamentals, export resilience, and the trend of the US dollar index. If the domestic economy continues to recover and exports remain resilient, the long - term appreciation trend of the RMB is hard to change [26]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Logic and Asset Performance after the Conflict - In the early stage of the conflict, the market followed the risk - aversion logic. After the news on February 28, the gold dark - market price soared, and the yield of domestic inter - bank bonds declined. Subsequently, due to differences in the expected duration of the war, the market logic shifted from simple risk - aversion to more complex narratives such as inflation and AI investment in the Middle East. After the logic shift, most assets except the US dollar and oil prices fell, and concerns about the liquidity crisis increased. However, the current macro - liquidity situation does not require excessive worry [3][6]. 2. Impact on the US Dollar and Fed's Policy - In the short - term panic and redemption shock, investors may have over - estimated the impact of rising oil prices on US dollar liquidity and the Fed's monetary policy. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been affected, with the probability of a rate cut in June decreasing and the expected number of rate cuts for the whole year dropping to about 1.6 times. The US dollar's strength is not only due to inflation and expectations but also to the resilience of the US economic fundamentals. The rise of the US dollar index is not solely supported by oil prices [11][13]. 3. Probability of a Protracted War and Its Impact - The probability of the geopolitical conflict turning into a protracted war is increasing. Iran's internal power transfer is complex, and the "decentralized mosaic defense" system makes it difficult to control the escalation of the conflict. Historically, the emotional impact of war on asset prices usually peaks in about two weeks and then asset prices return to the fundamental pricing logic. Even if the current conflict becomes a protracted war, its severe impact on the market is likely to be short - term [17][22]. 4. Impact of a Protracted War on the US Fiscal System - A protracted war will push up oil prices, drive up US inflation, and may lead to a further delay in the Fed's interest rate cuts or even a restart of rate hikes. The rise in US Treasury yields will put pressure on the US. The US has a high debt - to - GDP ratio and lacks the fiscal flexibility to support a large - scale protracted war. The direct cost of large - scale wars in the US has always been high, and there are also long - term follow - up expenses [23].

Market Overview - Geopolitical conflicts and US tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to heightened volatility in risk asset prices[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 4117.95 to 4162.88, an increase of 1.09%[2] - The NASDAQ Index fell from 23461.82 to 22668.21, a decrease of 3.38%[2] Investment Recommendations - Strong upward support for the Growth style index, which increased from 9588.03 to 9882.89, a rise of 3.08%[2] - The Cycle style index showed a significant increase from 6693.64 to 6967.09, up by 4.09%[2] - The Financial style index decreased from 9024.89 to 8873.67, down by 1.68%[2] Bond Market Insights - The 1Y government bond yield increased slightly from 1.30% to 1.322%, a change of 2 basis points[2] - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased from 4.26% to 3.97%, a drop of 29 basis points[2] Commodity Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose from $65.21 to $67.02 per barrel, an increase of 2.78%[2] - COMEX gold prices increased from $4879.6 to $5280 per ounce, up by 8.21%[2] Currency Movements - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.12 to 97.64, an increase of 0.54%[2] - The exchange rate of USD to CNY decreased from 6.95 to 6.86, a decline of 1.33%[2]

【GMF市场追踪】关于油价、通胀、美联储货币政策和大类资产流动性冲击 1、油价上升如何影响美国通胀？ 一阶效应（油价对Headline CPI的直接传导）：能源在美国CPI中的占比逐年下降，目前大约6.5%。 一般来说，油价永久性上涨10%会推升能源通胀大约2%，再乘以6.5%的占比意味着累计的通胀效应约为0.13%。 如果考虑对食品价格的推升，油价上涨 2、美联储会如何应对油价上行？ 【GMF市场追踪】关于油价、通胀、美联储货币政策和大类资产流动性冲击 1、油价上升如何影响美国通胀？ 一阶效应（油价对Headline CPI的直接传导）：能源在美国CPI中的占比逐年下降，目前大约6.5%。 一般来说，油价永久性上涨10%会推升能源通胀大约2%，再乘以6.5%的占比意味着累计的通胀效应约为0.13%。 如果考虑对食品价格的推升，油价上涨10%的一阶通胀影响大约在0.2%左右。 二阶效应（油价对核心通胀的传导）：普遍认为1980年代后，油价对核心通胀的传导变得很弱且传导时滞很长， 近期文献估算，油价上升10%对核心通胀的二阶效应大约在0-0.2pp（Conflittiand Luciani， 2017; Alp ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are beneficial to the price of precious metals, but they are more phased. The precious metals sector has high volatility. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a bullish mindset while strictly controlling their positions. In the long - term, the once - in - a - century changes and the Sino - US competition will continue to drive up the gold price [4]. - Affected by factors such as the chaotic international trade situation, the gloomy global economic growth prospects, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and rising geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector is expected to continue to move up strongly along the upward trend line since September 2025. However, historical experience shows that the rise in precious metals driven by geopolitical conflicts is often short - lived, and the volatility of the precious metals sector remains high. Investors are advised to continue to participate in trading with a bullish mindset while controlling their positions. Long - hedgers can seize the opportunity to establish hedging positions, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The US and Israel launched a fierce attack on Iran, killing many Iranian executives. Iran retaliated by air - raiding US and Israeli military bases and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased, causing international oil prices to soar by nearly 10%. Driven by safe - haven and anti - inflation demands, the price of London gold has broken through the $5400 per ounce mark [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation, the Two Sessions in China, and the US non - farm payrolls in February [4]. Medium - term Market - After a sharp decline at the end of January due to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts and Trump's nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman candidate, the precious metals sector showed a strong sign of stabilizing and rebounding in February. On February 20th, the US Federal Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration had no right to impose tariffs under the IEEPA, and the international trade situation became turbulent again, pushing the international gold price to around $5200 per ounce. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have further increased the safe - haven demand for precious metals [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Conditions | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,150.38 | 1,199.70 | 1,151.37 | 1,199.64 | 4.28% | 309,821 | 7555 | | SHFE Silver Index | 22,852 | 24,194 | 22,822 | 24,170 | 5.77% | 530,068 | 5322 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 621.98 | 639.86 | 603.30 | 624.59 | 0.42% | 29,411 | 505 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 463.50 | 472.15 | 454.57 | 462.48 | - 0.22% | 9,198 | 208 | [5] Main Macro - Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission (USITC) will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) over a six - year period. The results will be announced before August 21st. It will also examine another scenario where if Congress revokes PNTR, partial tariffs will be gradually imposed on important products related to national security over five years [18]. - Oman, as a mediator, said that the US and Iran have made significant progress in negotiations aimed at resolving a long - standing nuclear dispute and avoiding new US military strikes. The two sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and then resume negotiations as soon as possible, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [18]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly by 4000 to 212,000 last week. With a stable labor market, the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged, indicating a "low - hiring, low - firing" state in the labor market. This confirms economists' expectations that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [18].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20260301: Intensified Geopolitical Disturbances in the Middle East, Shanghai Copper Expected to Run Strongly [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to intensified geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - After the holiday, the Shanghai copper futures market fluctuated upward [9] - After the holiday, the supply pressure of copper spot increased, and the copper spot discount widened under pressure [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week was -$50.43/ton, basically the same as before the holiday and still low [16] - According to Steel Union, the port copper concentrate inventory increased by 46,000 tons week-on-week to 514,000 tons this week [20] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has declined compared with before the holiday [21] - In February, the number of production days in China decreased. The electrolytic copper output is expected to decrease month-on-month but increase year-on-year; the output in March is expected to rise again [24] - The copper spot import window is closed [25] - After the holiday, both the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the bonded area inventory increased [28] - This week, the LME copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase [30] - After the holiday, the resumption of work of refined copper rods was slow, and downstream consumption still needs to pick up [31] - At the beginning of the Year of the Horse, many provinces intensively issued supporting details for the policy of trading in old cars for new ones [34] - Overseas orders increased, and some component factories have considerable orders on hand [35] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March decreased by 4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report [41] - The core PPI in the US in January reached the fastest growth rate in a year, unexpectedly heating up, and the complexity of the Fed's monetary policy increased [44] - Fed Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026 [47]