Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China has transitioned from "quality improvement and expansion" to "normal issuance" by 2025, with a total market value exceeding 200 billion yuan, reaching 221 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to the end of 2024 [7][8]. Market Trends and Developments - In 2025, the primary market continued to see strong issuance and subscription activity, characterized by a richer variety of asset types and high subscription multiples for new projects, with over 12 projects having subscription multiples exceeding 100 times by the end of Q3 [4][8]. - The secondary market exhibited a "rising then falling" trend, with an overall increase in the first half of 2025, followed by a decline due to rising long-term interest rates and profit-taking demands [4][14]. 2026 Market Outlook - For 2026, the primary market is expected to focus on new asset types and accelerated project expansions supported by policy measures, while the private REITs market is anticipated to grow rapidly [5][34]. - The secondary market is expected to remain influenced by interest rate fluctuations and funding needs, with high dividend-bearing assets maintaining good investment value [5][40]. Asset Type Expansion and Innovation - The 2025 public REITs market saw a continuous expansion of asset types, including the successful launch of several "firsts" in various sectors, notably data centers and municipal infrastructure [12][34]. - The approval and issuance of data center REITs marked a significant breakthrough, indicating the entry of public REITs into the digital infrastructure sector [12][34]. Investor Sentiment and Participation - Investor enthusiasm for new public REITs remained high, with many new projects experiencing substantial first-day gains, reflecting a strong profit-making effect [12][13]. - Institutional investor participation continued to rise, with an average institutional investor share of 97.21% by the first half of 2025, indicating growing recognition and engagement with public REITs [19][21]. Market Structure and Strategy - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is seen as essential for further market scale enhancement, with a focus on supply-side measures to improve market capacity and liquidity [31][34]. - The private REITs market is expected to complement public REITs by covering a broader range of asset types and facilitating the revitalization of existing real estate assets [35][39]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, prioritizing projects with resilient or improving fundamentals, while also considering high-potential projects that show value after valuation corrections [5][40]. - Attention should be given to projects with strong fundamentals and short-term improvement expectations, as well as those with attractive valuations in the logistics and industrial park sectors [57].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is increasingly turning to long-term equity investments, particularly in undervalued bank stocks, to achieve asset-liability matching and stable returns amid a low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity [1][11]. Summary by Sections Long-term Equity Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are seeking stable, long-term returns through long-term equity investments, which are seen as a strategic choice to smooth out volatility and achieve stable ROE and dividend returns [1][11]. - However, this strategy has sparked controversy, as some companies may misuse it as a financial engineering tool to quickly create profits and net assets, masking operational pressures [1][2]. Accounting Practices and Implications - Long-term equity investments are intended to reflect a long-term holding and stable return logic, but they can transform into a "reporting magic" under specific accounting rules, especially when investing in undervalued stocks [3][4]. - The new accounting standards allow insurance companies to classify investments as long-term equity investments if they have "significant influence," enabling them to use the equity method for accounting [6][9]. Financial Engineering Concerns - The equity method allows for initial measurement based on the higher of the payment amount or the share of the investee's net assets, which can lead to significant one-time profits being recognized on the income statement [7][9]. - This practice can create a disconnect between reported profits and actual cash flows, raising concerns about the sustainability of such financial engineering [17]. Market and Regulatory Pressures - The low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity have intensified pressure on insurance companies, particularly smaller firms, to seek quick fixes for profitability and solvency metrics [11][12]. - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing as the misuse of long-term equity investments for short-term financial gains becomes more apparent, leading to calls for clearer standards and stricter oversight [20][21]. Recommendations for Improvement - To mitigate risks associated with long-term equity investments, it is suggested that insurance companies enhance internal controls, focus on sustainable cash flows, and separate short-term profits from long-term investment strategies [21][22]. - Expanding into alternative assets that align with long-term liabilities, such as infrastructure REITs and policy bonds, is recommended to reduce reliance on equity market fluctuations [21][22].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a new milestone with a net inflow of 66.54 billion HKD from southbound funds on November 10, pushing the total net buying amount for the year to over 1.3 trillion HKD and cumulative net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect to over 5 trillion HKD, setting a new record since the mechanism's inception [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant activity this year, with major indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index each rising approximately 30%, ranking among the top in global markets [1] - The influx of southbound funds has been particularly strong in the first half of the year, with 57 trading days recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, 30 of which occurred in the first half [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Inflows - Five key factors are driving the continuous inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market: valuation discount compared to A-shares, ongoing demand for technology leaders and high-dividend assets in a declining domestic interest rate environment, optimized connectivity mechanisms, long-term investment needs from domestic insurance and public funds, and enhanced global liquidity expectations due to anticipated interest rate cuts [3] - The presence of unique assets in the Hong Kong market, such as Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba, along with new consumer companies like Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City, has diversified investment options and attracted more southbound capital [3] Group 3: Asset Scarcity - The influx of southbound funds is also indicative of an "asset scarcity" phenomenon, where ample liquidity exists but quality assets are limited, prompting domestic funds to seek effective allocation opportunities in the Hong Kong market, which offers both stable dividend returns and growth potential in new economic sectors [4]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a new milestone with a net inflow of 66.54 billion HKD from southbound funds on November 10, pushing the total net buying amount for the year to over 1.3 trillion HKD and the cumulative net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect to over 5 trillion HKD, setting a new record since the mechanism's inception [1] Group 1 - The continuous net buying of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds indicates a significant transformation in market liquidity and activity, highlighting the strategic allocation demand from mainland investors for undervalued assets and scarce resources in the Hong Kong market [1][3] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain a "valuation repair + growth premium" slow bull market trend, becoming a key window for global investors to allocate Chinese assets, supported by favorable policies, industrial upgrades, and global liquidity easing [1][3] - Major indices in the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, have seen year-to-date increases of around 30%, ranking among the top in global markets [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, there was a notable acceleration in the inflow of southbound funds, with 57 trading days recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, 30 of which occurred in the first half, indicating a strong inflow trend [2] - From 2020 to 2024, the net buying amounts of southbound funds were 672.13 billion HKD, 454.40 billion HKD, 386.28 billion HKD, 318.84 billion HKD, and 807.87 billion HKD, with a significant increase in net inflows starting in 2024, surpassing the total for the entire year within just seven months [2] Group 3 - The influx of southbound funds into the Hong Kong market is driven by five main factors: the valuation discount of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares, ongoing demand for technology leaders and high-dividend assets in a declining domestic interest rate environment, optimized connectivity mechanisms, inherent demand from long-term mainland funds, and enhanced liquidity expectations due to global interest rate cuts [3] - The presence of unique assets in the Hong Kong market, such as Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba, along with newly listed companies like Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City, has enriched investment options and further attracted southbound fund inflows [3][4] Group 4 - Some institutions view the increased inflow of southbound funds as a reflection of an "asset shortage," where abundant funds are seeking quality assets amid limited growth opportunities, making Hong Kong stocks attractive for both stable dividend returns and growth-oriented new economy sectors [4]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a new milestone with a net inflow of 66.54 billion HKD from southbound funds on November 10, pushing the total net buying amount for the year to over 1.3 trillion HKD, and the cumulative net inflow since the launch of the Stock Connect program has surpassed 5 trillion HKD, setting a new record since the program's inception [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant activity this year, with major indices such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all experiencing approximately 30% growth year-to-date, ranking among the top global markets [3]. - In the first half of the year, there was a notable acceleration in net inflows from southbound funds, with 57 trading days recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, indicating a strong influx during this period [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Inflows - Five key factors are driving the continuous inflow of southbound funds into the Hong Kong stock market: 1. Valuation discount of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares, providing a higher safety margin 2. Ongoing demand for technology leaders and high-dividend assets in a declining domestic interest rate environment 3. Continuous optimization of the Stock Connect mechanism facilitating smoother capital flow 4. Long-term domestic funds, such as insurance and public funds, have inherent needs to allocate to Hong Kong stocks 5. Global expectations of interest rate cuts enhancing liquidity, benefiting the Hong Kong market [4]. - The presence of unique assets in the Hong Kong market, such as Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba, along with new consumer companies like Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City, has enriched investment options and attracted more capital inflow [4]. Group 3: Asset Scarcity - Some institutions view the inflow of southbound funds as a reflection of "asset scarcity," where abundant capital is seeking quality assets. In the context of limited growth points and reliable returns, domestic funds are looking for effective allocation opportunities in the Hong Kong market, which offers both stable dividend assets and growth-oriented new economy sectors [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PE**: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of senior management changes at Xingzheng Global Fund highlights the transition of leadership with Zhuang Yuanfang becoming the Chairman and Chen Jinqian taking over as General Manager, indicating a stable management structure aimed at continued growth and development [1][5][6]. Group 1: Management Changes - Zhuang Yuanfang has been appointed as the Chairman and legal representative of Xingzheng Global Fund, while Chen Jinqian has been promoted to General Manager and financial responsible person [1][2]. - The changes in management are part of a structured transition, with both Zhuang and Chen having over ten years of experience at the company, which is expected to contribute to the stability and continuity of the firm's operations [6]. Group 2: Background of New Leaders - Zhuang Yuanfang has over 33 years of experience in the asset management industry, having joined Xingye Securities in 1992 and serving as Vice President before leading Xingzheng Global Fund since 2016 [4][5]. - Chen Jinqian, with over 26 years of investment research experience, has held various positions within Xingzheng Global Fund since joining in 2010, including roles in fixed income and specialized investment departments [6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Under Zhuang Yuanfang's leadership, Xingzheng Global Fund has seen its public fund management scale grow from 111.149 billion yuan at the end of 2016 to 741.432 billion yuan by the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a significant expansion [5].

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases aims to alleviate liquidity pressure on banks and enhance their lending capacity [1][4] - The securities industry has shown strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of CNY 1,837.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61.25% [3][50] - The insurance sector is experiencing a strategic adjustment period due to changes in interest rates, with significant profit growth reported by major insurers [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 6, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have changed by +0.25%, +0.62%, and -0.67% respectively, while the CSI 300 index increased by +1.89% [12][19] - Among the sub-sectors, Chongqing Bank (+8.44%), Northeast Securities (+10.09%), and China Ping An (+1.90%) performed the best [12][19] Valuation Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.78, with state-owned banks at 0.84 and joint-stock banks at 0.62 [21][22] - The securities sector's PB ratio is 1.54, indicating potential for valuation recovery [25] Recent Market Indicators - The one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.50% respectively [32][33] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares is CNY 19,673.61 billion, reflecting a decrease of 14.41% [38][40] Industry News - The insurance industry is adapting to new regulatory frameworks and interest rate changes, with a focus on optimizing product structures and enhancing profitability [43][44] - The central bank's actions are expected to provide a more stable liquidity environment for banks, especially as year-end liquidity fluctuations increase [48] Company Announcements - Major banks and insurers have reported varying earnings growth, with significant increases in net profits for companies like China Life and Xinhua Insurance [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It offers trend judgments for various commodities within different sectors, including "oscillating", "bullish", and "bearish". 2. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, with A - shares lacking a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to oscillate while accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. There is strong support below the stock index due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Different commodities in various sectors are affected by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Oscillating. A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, but there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, and precious metals are stabilizing and oscillating [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling. Limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits lead to an oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. With small production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and production and inventory are both increasing, pressuring the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The US government shutdown has increased market risk aversion. LME zinc inventory is continuously decreasing, and the risk of a short squeeze remains, but domestic fundamentals are still in surplus, so be cautious when chasing high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. US economic data and Fed policy expectations affect market risk appetite. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and nickel prices are mainly affected by macro factors in the short term, with high inventory pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Macro - sentiment is volatile, and stainless steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Oscillating. Macro - benefits have been digested, and considering the raw material shortage and good new - quality demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to buying at low prices in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Northwest production capacity is resuming, and southwest production is weak. The impact of the dry season is weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillating. The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong, but there is hedging pressure [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillating. There are concerns about weakening industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose, and attention should be paid to upward price pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. There is cost support and direct demand, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, but high supply and downstream pressure limit price rebound [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Coal and coke are strong due to tight supply, but downstream steel prices have weakened first, and there is a risk of the price returning to the oscillating range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. It is currently under the pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports, but may rebound if export data improves in the traditional production - reduction cycle starting in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. China's purchase of US soybeans may bring a loose supply expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's production capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Typhoons have affected sugarcane production, and there is seasonal upward pressure, but the rebound space is limited after new - sugar listing [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to traders' inventory - building rhythm and policy changes [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Domestic soybean purchase and processing margins are poor, and the market may rebound to repair margins, but the supply is expected to be loose in the near and far terms, limiting the rebound height [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and trade policies have eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production policy, geopolitics, and trade policies [1]. - **Asphalt**: Bearish. Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and supply is sufficient with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. Supported by raw material cost, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Crude oil price decline weakens the cost support of butadiene, and synthetic rubber supply is loose with high inventory [1]. - **PTA**: Oscillating. The news of the "anti - involution" policy, overseas and domestic device failures, and maintenance have affected production and prices [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal price increase strengthens cost support. The polyester peak season is ending without obvious decline [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating. It is affected by the PTA price and cost, with a strengthening basis [1]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating. Weak Asian benzene prices, low device operating rates, and closed arbitrage windows have affected the market [1]. - **Urea**: Oscillating. Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the "anti - involution" policy and cost [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. High supply leads to large inventory pressure, weakening maintenance, and slow - growing demand [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Insufficient maintenance support and new device production increase supply pressure, and demand improvement is less than expected [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. New device production and reduced maintenance increase supply pressure, and coal price increase strengthens cost support [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. Planned production expansion in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and potential short - squeeze risk [1]. - **LPG**: Oscillating. International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1].