Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sector in the A-share market has seen significant capital inflow, indicating a growing demand for stable cash return assets in a low-interest-rate environment [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Market Performance - The high dividend sector attracted the most capital inflow among industry and thematic ETFs, totaling 3.558 billion yuan last week [1]. - As of December 17, 2025, the tracking scale of dividend index ETFs is approaching 200 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) has recorded a net inflow of 0.67 million yuan over six consecutive trading days, with a current scale of 6.1 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Index Performance - The CSI Dividend Quality Total Return Index has an annualized return of 17.89% since its base date [1]. - The latest dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Quality Index is 4.15%, compared to a 10-year government bond yield of 1.83% [4][9]. Group 3: Investment Trends - In the context of low interest rates and asset scarcity, the value of high dividend and strong cash flow assets is increasingly recognized [1][9]. - The demand for these assets is expected to be further solidified by the active entry of long-term funds, such as insurance capital, into the market [1][9]. Group 4: Index Composition - The CSI Dividend Quality Index covers 50 stocks that are stable in dividends, have high dividend yields, and strong earnings sustainability [1]. - The industry distribution of the index is balanced, with no single industry exceeding 20% and excluding bank stocks, focusing instead on stable and growth-oriented sectors [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Fuel Oil [1] - **Sideways**: Stock Index, Bond Futures, Zinc, Precious Metals, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak performance, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some non - ferrous metals and precious metals are showing positive trends, while the prices of some agricultural products and energy - chemical products are under pressure or in a sideways pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it will continue to be weak. The adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window for the upward movement next year. Investors can consider gradually building long positions during the adjustment [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the recovery of market risk appetite, the copper price is running strongly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and the aluminum price is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have improved and the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still high. Due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the primary nickel market is in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel iron has stabilized, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The steel mills' production reduction in December is expected to increase. The futures price has continued to rebound, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and the tin price has strengthened due to capital speculation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and geopolitical tensions support the price, but the Fed officials' remarks bring short - term volatility risks [1]. - **Silver**: Macro - drivers, supply - demand imbalance, and increasing ETF holdings are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The outer - market platinum price has reached a new high, and the inner - market may follow the upward trend. However, due to the high premium of the domestic futures price and the exchange's risk - control measures, short - term volatility risks should be noted [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply side has increased production resumption [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is acceptable, the valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Coal and Coke**: After the negative news was digested, there were signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will carry out winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the weak performance of the CBOT market and other domestic oils and is running weakly [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be over, and the global main producing areas are expected to have a good harvest. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid replenishment demand. The market is currently in a situation of "supported but without a driver" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and a large - scale supply of new domestic crops. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support [1]. - **Corn**: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The inventory at each link is at a historical low, and there is expected to be stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean**: The US soybean export is weak, and the Brazilian soybean is expected to have a good harvest. The inner - market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - **Log**: Affected by the decline in the outer - market quotation and spot price, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and there are factors such as the possible falsification of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand and sufficient supply of Mare crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost has increased, the price has risen, the operating rate has remained high, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester pre - holiday stocking sales have improved [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen due to inventory accumulation, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The price closely follows the cost [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: The cost provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment has recovered, and the total inventory remains high [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the cost side [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, but the cost support is strong [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the price is oscillating in a range [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The procurement rhythm has slowed down, the operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas market has returned to the basic - face loosening logic, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth [1]. Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].

Core Viewpoint - The yield of money market funds is rapidly declining, with over 100 funds now yielding below 1%, leading to management fee adjustments and purchase limits to protect returns [1][2][5]. Group 1: Yield Decline - As of December 19, 123 money market funds have a seven-day annualized yield below 1%, with some funds like Tianfeng Jin Guanjia and Guangfa Cash Treasure A dropping below 0.5% [2]. - The largest money market fund, Tianhong Yu'ebao, has seen its yield fall to 1.02%, previously dipping to 1.001% on December 4, indicating a critical threshold [2]. - Other leading funds such as Jianxin Jiaxinbao A and Huaxia Caifubao A have yields of 1.15% and 1.06%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Management Fee Adjustments - Over 30 money market funds have been forced to lower management fees due to contractual obligations as their yields fell below twice the rate of demand deposits [4][5]. - For instance, Guangda Baodexin Fund adjusted the management fee from 0.90% to 0.25% when the yield fell below the stipulated threshold [4]. - Similarly, the Zhaoshang Asset Management fund also reduced its management fee to 0.30% under similar conditions [4]. Group 3: Purchase Limits - Several fund companies have announced purchase limits or even suspended subscriptions to protect existing investors [6][7]. - For example, the Shangyin Hui Profit E fund set a limit of 100,000 yuan for single-day purchases starting December 22 [6]. - The Tianzhi Tiande Li money market fund suspended subscriptions from December 18, while still allowing transactions through direct sales channels [6]. Group 4: Market Conditions - Analysts attribute the decline in yields to multiple factors, including a decrease in the risk-free interest rate and an oversupply of liquidity leading to an "asset shortage" [3]. - Some funds have managed to maintain yields around 2% by employing more aggressive duration and leverage strategies [3]. - Despite the downward trend in yields, the total share of money market funds increased to 15.05 trillion units by the end of October, reflecting a growth of over 3.8 million units since September [5].

而全市场规模最大的货币基金天弘余额宝，最新的七日年化收益率已经下行至1.02%，甚至曾在12月4日一度跌至 1.001%，濒临破"1"。紧随其后，规模排名前列的建信嘉薪宝A、华夏财富宝A、易方达易理财A等货币基金的七日 年化收益率分别为1.15%、1.06%、1.09%。 此前，天弘余额宝基金经理在三季报中表示，存款搬家的现象对银行在资金端的运用和管理上产生了一些影响， 增加了资金流动所产生的摩擦，增加了备付需求，也使得银行在货币市场的基础货币供应实际上是下降的，加大 了在某些关键时点货币市场利率的波动性。债券市场和股票市场出现了一定的"跷跷板"效应，而债券市场的调整 也带动了同业存单的调整。由于银行在负债端的压力不大，同业存单的调整相对于债券市场是缓慢且有限的，但 随着存量资产的陆续到期，整体收益率仍然呈现下降的走势。 格上基金研究员毕梦姌认为，近期货币基金收益率的走势变化背后有多个核心原因，一方面，无风险利率中枢下 移，使得货币基金投资的银行存款、债券回购等资产收益率同步下滑；另一方面，市场流动性充裕引发"资产 荒"，当资金利率持续低于产品收益率时，基金不得不通过降低杠杆率、缩短久期等方式控制风险，进一步 ...

资产荒背景下，货币基金收益率正加速下探，破"1"正成为普遍现象。 最新数据显示，当前，全市场已有百余只货币基金收益率跌破1%关口，连天弘余额宝等头部产品亦逼近临界 点。受此影响，超30只产品因触发合同条款被迫下调管理费，众多货币基金在近期集体限购保收益。 多只产品被迫降费 伴随着货币基金收益率的走低，多只货币基金因为基金合同要求被迫降费。 比如，12月20日，光大保德信基金发布公告，根据光大保德信阳光现金宝货币基金的基金合同，"当以0.90% 的管理费计算的七日年化暂估收益率小于或等于2倍活期存款利率，基金管理人将调整管理费为0.25%，以降 低每万份基金暂估净收益为负并引发销售机构交收透支的风险，直至该类风险消除，基金管理人方可恢复计提 0.90%的管理费"。 百余只货币基金收益率"破1" Wind数据显示，截至12月19日，全市场已经有123只货币基金的七日年化收益率跌破1%，其中天风金管家、 山证资管日日添利C、广发现金宝A、金鹰现金增益E等产品的七日年化收益率甚至已经低于0.5%。 而全市场规模最大的货币基金天弘余额宝，最新的七日年化收益率已经下行至1.02%，甚至曾在12月4日一度 跌至1.001% ...

2025年12月19日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 摘要 证券研究报告 【平安证券】震荡寻微光 ——2026年公募REITs年度策略报告 证券分析师 刘 璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070001 25年REITs供需均强，估值提升。截至11月28日（下同），25年REITs指数上涨7%，跑赢债券、跑输权益，与历史年度涨幅相比亦居中位。基本面 变动不大，延续"稳定好于周期"的特点。供需方面，供给攀升，二级市场解禁是重要的供给来源；需求方面，受益于资产荒、上半年牛市，投资 者需求也有所升温。投资者对REITs接受度提升，全市场IRR下行1.47pct至4.01%，IRR-10Y国债利差压缩至217BP。 25年REITs市场的三条策略主线：参与一级发行、消费、基于估值的板块切换。主线一，一级认购策略收益丰厚。25年上市的新项目一二级现金分 派率差平均为1.34pct，明显高于24年水平；新行业分派率较可比资产高约3pct。一级网下打新、参与战配在25年的期望收益率可达到29%、34%； 市政、新型基础设施两个新行业上市以来涨幅超40%。主线二，24Q ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the pricing power of the 30Y government bond has undergone three migrations, driven by the "asset shortage" and improvement in liquidity [1][5][6] - Before 2022, the 30Y government bond received little attention, with its supply significantly lower than that of the 10Y bond, leading to weak liquidity and primarily being purchased by insurance companies [6][12][14] - From 2022 to 2024, the pricing power of the 30Y government bond has shifted towards the trading market, becoming a "barometer" for the bond market, with increased liquidity and active trading [1][14][18] Group 2 - Currently, the 30Y government bond faces challenges related to the alleviation of the "asset shortage" and mismatched supply-demand structure, leading to a re-pricing phase [41][51] - The alleviation of the "asset shortage" is reflected in the improvement of risk appetite and return structures in the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a steady rise and reduced volatility since early 2025 [42][46] - The supply-demand contradiction arises from the mismatch between the long-term supply of government bonds and the short-term liquidity provided, resulting in a structural issue where the supply of 30Y bonds exceeds demand [51][60] Group 3 - The report suggests that the pricing power of the 30Y government bond may be returning to the configuration plate, as the trading market's marginal pricing ability has declined due to significant market volatility [66][71] - The transition of pricing power has been characterized by three phases: before 2022, where pricing was dominated by the configuration plate; from 2022 to 2024, where trading power increased; and from 2025 onwards, where there is a potential return to the configuration plate [66][70] - To alleviate the upward pressure on the yield of the 30Y government bond, two main paths are suggested: a price path where the long end adjusts to a perceived "valuable" range, and a liquidity path where market liquidity becomes significantly more accommodative [72][73]

Group 1 - The pricing power of 30Y government bonds has undergone three migrations, driven by the "asset shortage" and improvement in liquidity [1] - Before 2022, the focus on 30Y government bonds was low, with supply significantly lower than that of 10Y bonds, leading to weak liquidity and primarily driven by insurance companies [9][16] - From 2022 to 2024, the pricing power of 30Y government bonds shifted towards trading accounts, becoming a market "barometer" as liquidity improved and trading activity increased [18] Group 2 - The current situation of 30Y government bonds is characterized by a relief of the "asset shortage" and a mismatch in supply and demand structures [49] - The easing of the "asset shortage" is reflected in the steady rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the continuous increase in dividend yields, indicating a shift in economic expectations [50][54] - The supply-demand contradiction arises from the mismatch between the long-term supply of government bonds and the short-term liquidity provided, leading to an oversupply of 30Y bonds [60] Group 3 - The pricing logic for 30Y government bonds has changed, with the market now requiring higher risk compensation due to the shift from a "supply-demand balance" to an "oversupply" situation [69] - The transition of pricing power may revert back to the allocation accounts as trading accounts face challenges in the current volatile market [74] - To alleviate the upward pressure on 30Y government bond yields, two main paths exist: adjusting prices to a more attractive range for allocation accounts and improving liquidity in the market [82]

Group 1 - The article highlights the current asset allocation trends among high-net-worth individuals, focusing on four main areas: quantitative enhancement, science and technology innovation funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets [1][2][3][4][5] - Quantitative enhancement involves significant investments in small-cap stocks, with risks associated with size factors and non-linear factors [1][3] - Science and technology innovation funds face risks from domestic interest rate increases leading to style shifts and potential AI bubble bursts due to revised capital expenditure expectations in the U.S. [1][3] - All-weather strategies are at risk from rising interest rates causing losses in bond holdings and declining gold prices [1][3] - Overseas assets are influenced by the RMB exchange rate and U.S. AI developments [2][4] Group 2 - The article provides insights into the scale of various investment vehicles, noting that since September 2022, the total margin financing balance has increased by 1.1 trillion, primarily directed towards the TMT sector [3][21] - By the end of 2024, the total scale of private equity funds is projected to reach 5.21 trillion, with a significant increase of 1.8 trillion observed this year [3][21] - The total scale of ETFs is expected to surge from approximately 3.73 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to 5.74 trillion, marking a growth of over 2 trillion and a growth rate exceeding 53% [3][21] - The A500 ETF has seen a net inflow of 255 billion in the past week and 367 billion in the past month, indicating strong market interest [3][21] Group 3 - The performance of investment vehicles shows that quantitative private equity funds have achieved over 40% returns this year, marking the third consecutive year of outperforming subjective strategies [8][26] - Mixed equity funds have recorded a 32% return this year, rebounding after three years of underperformance [8][26] - Broad market indices have generally yielded returns above 20%, with the A500 ETF at 22% and the CSI 300 ETF at 18% [8][27] Group 4 - The global fund manager survey indicates a peak in macro optimism since August 2021, with the stock and commodity allocation ratio reaching its highest since February 2022 [9][27] - Cash levels among fund managers have dropped to a historical low of 3.3%, down from 3.7% [9][27] - The survey also reveals that 37% of managers view the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, while 40% believe private credit is the most likely source of credit events [12][30] Group 5 - The article raises questions about whether the trends observed in 2024 can be extrapolated into 2025, particularly regarding crowded positions and potential trend reversals [15][34] - It discusses the implications of rising interest rates on real estate and the effectiveness of macro hedging as a strategy for style switching [15][34] - The narrative suggests that the current market dynamics, influenced by a weak dollar and AI industry expansion, have led to an "asset shortage" and "capital bull" scenario [15][33]