摘要今日周岁（11月13日）欧盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，一度触及4213美元的三周高位。美国因政府 停摆致经济数据延迟发布，或暴露经济增长乏力，强化了市场对美联储12月降息的预期，美元承压为黄 金提供支撑。虽美国政府停摆结束、风险情绪回暖限制避险买盘，但金价稳于4200美元上方，彰显多头 强势主导地位。 美联储降息+流动性宽松双轮驱动，黄金与美股齐涨，但通胀预期高悬。彭博策略师McGlone认为，黄 金有望进一步甩开标普500。McGlone指出，美股财富效应超GDP两倍，创百年纪录；标普相对GDP与 全球股市估值达2.3倍（11年前仅1倍）。若向黄金比率靠拢，将引发严重通缩。 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为，若最高法院支持总 统解雇权，金价可能再涨500美元。分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削 弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美 元。尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降 息，但鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65% ...

Group 1 - Copper stocks have shown significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining increasing by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining up 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] - The recent commentary from Nick Timiraos indicates a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the threats posed by ongoing inflation versus a sluggish labor market, complicating the outlook for potential interest rate cuts [1] - Despite investor expectations for a possible rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the internal disagreements have made previously feasible plans more complex [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which may reduce macroeconomic risks [2] - The copper market is experiencing a shift due to supply shortages from mining accidents, leading to tighter raw material availability that is now affecting the smelting sector [2] - Current copper prices are supported at the bottom, but breaking through previous highs will require additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow, suggesting a tendency for range-bound trading [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper Co. rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum Co. increasing by 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining Corp. up by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining Group rising by 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - The U.S. Congress has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which reduces macroeconomic risks [2] - Despite the government shutdown nearing an end, uncertainty in economic data continues to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2] - A recent copper mine accident has led to expectations of raw material shortages, which have been reflected in prior trading, with current prices showing bottom support but requiring additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow for upward movement beyond previous highs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the US government reopening is high, with economic data cooling in advance and the expectation of interest rate cuts rising again, leading to an increase in gold and silver prices. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and gold and silver prices are showing strength. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and its price may fluctuate significantly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US government is expected to reopen, economic data cooling expectations are ahead, and interest rate cut expectations are rising again, causing the gold price to increase. The US three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, European three major stock indexes closed up across the board, US bond yields were mixed, the 10 - year US bond yield remained flat at 4.067%, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.47, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1125, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.07% to $4201.4 per ounce. The basis is - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 1800 kilograms to 89616 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price soared. COMEX silver futures rose 4.90% to $53.23 per ounce. The basis is 0, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 8824 kilograms to 583060 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The US government's reopening expectation, economic data cooling, and interest rate cut expectations are the main factors affecting the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to - 3 yuan/gram. The optimistic expectation of the end of the US government shutdown, the recovery of risk appetite, and the return of interest rate cut expectations make the gold price strong [4]. - **Silver**: The silver price has shown an abnormal increase, with a significant increase in positions. COMEX silver has seen large short - term trading orders around 2 am for four consecutive days, and the silver price may fluctuate significantly. The silver premium has converged to 250 yuan/gram. The end of the US government shutdown is optimistically expected, risk appetite is recovering, and the silver price remains strong under the push of funds [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 08:00: The US House of Representatives will vote on the draft to end the government shutdown. - 08:30: Australia's October employment report (including employment population and unemployment rate). - Time TBD: The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area from November 13 - 14. - 15:00: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference in November, and the UK's preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be released. - 17:00: The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank will release an economic report, and the Governing Council member of the European Central Bank and the Governor of the Bank of France will speak. - 20:00: Greene, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England, will speak. - 21:00: Daly, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (a voting member of the FOMC in 2027), will talk about balance sheet management, and Elderson, an Executive Board member of the European Central Bank, will speak. - 23:30: Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will speak. - Next day 01:15: Musalem, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (a voting member of the FOMC in 2025), will participate in a fireside chat related to monetary policy. - Next day 01:20: Hammack, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (a voting member of the FOMC in 2026), will participate in a discussion. - Next day 01:30: Tschudin of the Swiss National Bank will speak at a money market event in Geneva. - Next day 04:10: Prasanna Gai, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will speak. - Next day 06:10: McPhee, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three major factors (US government shutdown, Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have significantly improved or even reversed, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are global turmoil, significant shadow Federal Reserve, continued interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors are the rising expectation of stopping interest rate cuts, large differences within the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, the US standing out again, the deterioration of risk preference, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2966 to 168369, the short positions decreased by 453 to 70081, and the net position decreased by 2513 to 98288. The SPDR gold ETF position has increased in a fluctuating manner [4][31][35]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 19974 to 387780, the short positions increased by 9470 to 265083, and the net position increased by 10504 to 122697. The silver ETF position is fluctuating and still higher than the same period in the past two years [5][33][38].

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1173.52 tons on November 10, unchanged from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $4118.50 per ounce on November 10, up 2.64%, with an intraday high of $4123.90 and a low of $4004.20 [1][2] Group 2 - Divergence in Federal Reserve officials' statements is becoming more pronounced, with San Francisco Fed President Daly supporting a dovish stance while St. Louis Fed President calls for caution, indicating ongoing policy uncertainty affecting market dynamics [2] - Latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, a two-year low, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, while strong inflation data may boost inflation expectations and suppress bond market performance. In the short - term, the bond market may operate weakly and stably due to lack of incremental positive factors [5]. - It is expected that the bond market will be weak first and then stable next week [5]. - For strategies, in the short - term, a defensive approach with a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for unilateral trading. For arbitrage, try to go long on the current - next quarter inter - period spread and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Data Analysis - **Foreign Trade**: In October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year and import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The negative export growth was related to a high base last year and trade disputes in October [9]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, better than expected. PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month, also better than expected [20][25]. - **Market Liquidity**: This week, the central bank net withdrew 15722 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, but the market funds were balanced and loose. Next week, government bond issuance will increase, with a net payment scale of about 3691.83 billion yuan, but the impact on funds is expected to be controllable [31][36]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Analysis - **Valuation**: The next - quarter contracts are generally over - valued compared to the current - quarter contracts, and the T contract IRR is also high compared to market funds. The IRR of TL, T, TF, TS current - quarter contracts are 1.4099%, 1.8770%, 1.6519%, 1.6209% respectively; the next - quarter contracts are 1.6357%, 1.8782%, 1.6831%, 1.7064% respectively [38][42]. - **Position Transfer**: As of Friday, the position transfer progress of TS, TF, T, TL contracts were 17.0%, 18.3%, 18.4%, 27.8% respectively. It is expected to accelerate next week, and may drive the inter - period spread to widen [47]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [52]. - **Contract Spreads**: Data on the spreads between TS, TF, T, TL contracts are provided [55]. - **Yield and Spread**: Data on the yield of treasury bond cash bonds and the term spread of treasury bond yields are provided, as well as data on the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond spread [57][59]. - **Exchange Rate**: Data on the US dollar index and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate are provided [61].

Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal decline, with short-term and long-term inflation expectations diverging. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October 2025 fell to 48.70%, down from 49.10%, remaining below the threshold of 50, indicating contraction [5][4]. - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for November 2025 decreased to 50.3, down from 53.6, reflecting declining consumer sentiment [5][4]. - The US refinery utilization rate for the week ending October 31, 2025, dropped to 86.0%, down from 86.6% the previous week [8]. - The US crude steel production for the week ending November 1, 2025, showed a slight year-on-year decline, with a production rate of 9.2%, compared to 9.9% the previous week [8]. Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodity prices mostly declining. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.29%, and the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08%. In contrast, the emerging market stock index fell by 0.99%, and the developed market stock index decreased by 1.51%. The S&P 500 dropped by 1.63%, and the Nikkei 225 fell by 4.07% [1][4]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with London gold down by 0.06%, the S&P-Goldman commodity index down by 0.54%, and IPE Brent crude futures down by 2.11% [1][4]. - In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.22%, and the overall index of China’s bonds decreased by 0.10% [1][4]. Policy Implications - The "data vacuum" due to the US government shutdown has intensified market volatility regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The release of the September CPI data was delayed from October 15 to October 24, and the October CPI report, originally scheduled for November 13, may also be delayed [2][20]. - Current market expectations indicate a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 33.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [20]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable monetary policy, with key deposit rates held at 2%. The ECB is cautious about ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, which may impact future economic forecasts [21].

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading the market to anticipate a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following preliminary comments from judges during the hearing [4][5]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards the likelihood that the Supreme Court will overturn the IEEPA-based tariff policy, which is a key variable affecting current market emotions [5][6]. Group 2: Alternative Legal Avenues - Despite setbacks in court, the Trump administration still has other legal avenues to impose tariffs, as indicated by Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimism and readiness to utilize alternative legal authorizations [6]. - Potential alternative measures include Section 122, allowing a broad 15% tariff within 150 days, Section 338, permitting tariffs up to 50% on countries discriminating against U.S. businesses, and the concept of "licensing fees" for tariffs, although the latter faced skepticism during the hearing [7][8][9]. Group 3: Short-term Winners and Losers - If the IEEPA tariffs are overturned, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to drop from an estimated 12.5% to around 9% [11]. - The biggest beneficiaries in the short term are likely to be economies heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. and most affected by the IEEPA tariffs, particularly Vietnam and Mexico [11][15]. - Other countries, such as India, may also see significant tariff reductions, while the EU and the UK are expected to benefit the least [15]. Group 4: Market Performance and Trading Strategies - On the day of the hearing, the market showed a favorable response, with the Mexican peso and Brazilian real appreciating, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [13]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed the S&P 500, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards tariffs [16]. - One-year inflation swap rates fell by over 5 basis points, indicating that investors quickly adjusted their expectations regarding inflation pressures from tariffed goods [16].

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading to market expectations of a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following initial court comments perceived as unfavorable [2]. - The outcome of this legal challenge is a key variable influencing current market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If the court ultimately overturns the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it could trigger a trading surge, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations, an increase in stock prices (especially small-cap stocks), and a strengthening of certain emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real [1][4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to drop from 12.5% to around 9% if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, which would benefit countries heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Beneficiaries and Losers - The primary beneficiaries of a potential IEEPA overturn would be countries with high trade dependency on the U.S., such as Vietnam and Mexico, while the EU and the UK would benefit the least [6]. - Other countries like India, which has not reached a trade agreement with the U.S., could see significant tariff reductions [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Market performance on the day of the hearing indicated a favorable sentiment towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 [8]. - The foreign exchange market saw the Mexican peso and Brazilian real rise, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [8].