美股涨跌互现 周一，美股窄幅波动几乎平收， 本周将有众多大型零售商发布财报，美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会也 将召开。 截至收盘，道指跌34.30点，跌幅为0.08%，报44911.82点；纳指涨0.03%，报21629.77点；标普500指数 跌0.01%，报6449.15点。 明星科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨1.4%，英伟达涨0.8%，亚马逊涨0.2%，苹果和谷歌跌0.3%，Meta跌 2.3%。英特尔跌3.6%，此前报道称，特朗普政府正在就收购英特尔10%的股份进行谈判。 其他个股方面，太阳能板块走强，SunRun和First Solar分别上涨11.3%和9.6%，此前美国财政部公布了 针对太阳能和风能项目的新联邦税收补贴规定，这些规定没有投资者担心的那么严格。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.2%。哔哩哔哩涨超2%，小鹏、网易、蔚来涨超1%。 过去两周，华尔街主要股指上扬，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上周五盘中创下历史新高，这得益于降息预期以及 好于预期的财报季，尽管贸易环境仍充满不确定性。 投资者将密切关注沃尔玛、家得宝和塔吉特等公司本周即将发布的报告，以判断贸易不确定性以及通胀 预期对美国消费者的影响。最新数据显示，尽 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced minimal fluctuations, with the Dow Jones falling by 34.30 points, a decrease of 0.08%, closing at 44,911.82 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.03% to 21,629.77 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.01% to 6,449.15 points [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla increasing by 1.4%, Nvidia by 0.8%, and Amazon by 0.2%, while Intel fell by 3.6% amid reports of the Trump administration considering acquiring a 10% stake in the company [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.2%, with Bilibili increasing over 2%, and Xpeng, NetEase, and NIO each rising over 1% [2] Economic Indicators - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight rebound, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 1.3 basis points to 3.77% and the 10-year Treasury yield also increasing by 1.3 basis points to 4.33% [4] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole, where Chairman Powell is expected to provide insights on economic outlook and policy framework [4] - Recent data indicates that while retail sales have generally increased, overall consumer confidence has been negatively impacted by rising inflation concerns [3] Sector Performance - The solar sector showed strength, with SunRun and First Solar rising by 11.3% and 9.6% respectively, following the announcement of new federal tax credit regulations for solar and wind projects [5] - International oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.99% to $63.42 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 1.14% to $66.60 per barrel, amid geopolitical tensions [5] - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for August delivery falling by 0.13% to $3,331.70 per ounce [5]

2025.08.19 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 周一，美股窄幅波动几乎平收， 本周将有众多大型零售商发布财报，美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会也 将召开。截至收盘，道指跌34.30点，跌幅为0.08%，报44911.82点；纳指涨0.03%，报21629.77点；标普 500指数跌0.01%，报6449.15点。 明星科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨1.4%，英伟达涨0.8%，亚马逊涨0.2%，苹果和谷歌跌0.3%，Meta跌 2.3%。英特尔跌3.6%，此前报道称，特朗普政府正在就收购英特尔10%的股份进行谈判。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数收涨0.2%。哔哩哔哩涨超2%，小鹏、网易、蔚来涨超1%。 在与俄罗斯总统普京会晤后，美国总统特朗普周一与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会面。欧洲多国领导人当天下 午随后抵达白宫，并与特朗普举行多边会谈。乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，准备通过 "外交途径" 结束俄 乌冲突，并再次强调基辅希望与莫斯科和华盛顿举行三方会谈。"如果今天一切顺利，我们将举行三方 会谈，我认为届时会有相当大的机会结束冲突。"特朗普称。 过去两周，华尔街主要股指上扬，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上周五盘中创下历史新高，这得益于降息预期以及 好于预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market, the upcoming earnings reports from major retailers, and the implications of inflation and trade uncertainties on consumer confidence and spending [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 34.30 points, a decrease of 0.08%, closing at 44,911.82 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.03% to 21,629.77 points, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.01% to 6,449.15 points [2]. - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla up 1.4%, Nvidia up 0.8%, and Amazon up 0.2%, while Apple and Google fell by 0.3%, and Meta dropped 2.3% [2]. Group 2: Retail Earnings and Consumer Confidence - Investors are closely watching upcoming earnings reports from Walmart, Home Depot, and Target to assess the impact of trade uncertainties and inflation expectations on U.S. consumers [3][4]. - Despite rising retail sales, overall consumer confidence has been negatively impacted by increasing inflation concerns [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 1.3 basis points to 3.77%, and the yield on 10-year bonds also increased by 1.3 basis points to 4.33%, indicating a close relationship with interest rate expectations [4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate, but weak employment data in August may prompt action in future meetings [5]. Group 4: Trade and Sector Performance - The Trump administration has expanded tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, affecting hundreds of derivative products [5]. - The solar sector saw gains, with SunRun and First Solar rising by 11.3% and 9.6%, respectively, following new federal tax credit regulations for solar and wind projects [5].

来源：滚动播报 华尔街主要股指周一表现平淡，本周初市场平静，主要零售商纷纷发布企业盈利报告，美联储也在杰克 逊霍尔召开年度研讨会。投资者将密切关注沃尔玛WMT.N 、家得宝HD.N和塔吉特TGT.N等公司本周公 布的报告，以确定贸易不确定性和通胀预期如何影响美国消费者。上周五公布的数据显示，尽管零售额 如预期般大幅增长，但整体消费者信心因通胀担忧加剧而受到打击。"很多零售商和生产产品的公司都 提前下达了订单。因此，从盈利角度来看，他们的业绩很可能会与预期一致，即使超出预期，幅度也可 能很小，"美国全球投资者首席交易员迈克尔·马图塞克表示。最近的数据还表明，尽管美国关税尚未渗 透到总体消费者价格中，但就业市场的疲软可能会促使央行采取更为温和的立场。市场希望，美联储将 于 8 月 21 日至 23 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的会议（预计主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在会上发表讲话） 能够更清楚地阐明经济前景和央行的政策框架。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transmission of tariffs to U.S. inflation is slow, increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, but the upward trend in service and commodity inflation may continue, limiting the extent of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's policy actions are entering a period of intense negotiation, with growing divergence in views, and attention is focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][4]. Group 1: Global Asset Performance - During the week of August 8 to August 15, 2025, global asset prices showed mixed performance, with commodities experiencing varied price changes while stock markets generally rose. The Nikkei 225 increased by 3.73%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.70%, the Hang Seng Index was up 1.65%, the Emerging Markets Stock Index increased by 1.38%, and the Developed Markets Stock Index rose by 1.08% [2]. - Commodity prices were mixed, with the S&P GSCI Commodity Index down by 0.58% and London gold spot prices down by 1.86%. In the bond market, the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.32%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.33% [2]. Group 2: Economic Overview - In the U.S., economic conditions are showing marginal decline, but overall resilience remains strong, with rising inflation expectations. In July 2025, U.S. industrial output increased significantly year-on-year, while capacity utilization in industrial and manufacturing sectors slightly decreased. Retail and food sales saw a year-on-year decline, and consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan also fell [3]. - In Europe, economic conditions are continuing to slow, with declining inflation expectations. The Eurozone's GDP showed a slowdown in Q2 2025, and industrial production indices in both the Eurozone and Germany decreased significantly [3]. Group 3: Policy Insights - In the U.S., inflation data indicates a slow transmission of tariffs, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts. However, rising inflation expectations may limit the extent of these cuts, with the current forecast of three rate cuts this year seen as overly optimistic. Attention is on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference from August 21 to 23, where Powell may set the tone for future monetary policy [4]. - In Europe, the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its current stance in the short term, with further rate cuts postponed until December. A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe involves a 15% tariff on nearly all U.S. exports to Europe, which will be monitored for its impact on monetary policy [4]. - In Japan, domestic price pressures are rising, potentially leading to a reconsideration of the "potential inflation" indicator, with another interest rate hike expected within the year [4].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy shows marginal decline but remains resilient, with industrial output in July 2025 increasing by 1.54% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.22%[7] - Eurozone GDP growth slowed in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, down from 1.50%[30] - Germany's industrial production index fell significantly in June 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.8%[33] Market Performance - Global asset prices showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 3.73% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.73% during the week of August 8-15, 2025[6] - Commodity prices were varied, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index declining by 0.58% and London gold prices dropping by 1.86%[6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation data indicates a slow transmission of tariffs, with July's CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 3.1%[39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have intensified, but future inflation may limit the extent of these cuts, with a forecast of three cuts in 2025 deemed overly optimistic[39] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain current rates, with further cuts potentially delayed until December 2025[40] Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 58.60 in July 2025, down from 61.70[13] - U.S. retail and food sales in July 2025 decreased by 3.92% year-on-year, compared to a previous month of 4.35%[13] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected tariff increases by the Trump administration and geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices[43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has a low "profit - making effect", leading to the continuous withdrawal of trading funds. Despite marginal positive factors, the bond market continued to decline last week. The current situation is similar to the reversal in the bond market in the fourth quarter of last year [4][7]. - It is difficult to expect the bond market to rise again due to the end of the stock market rally. The triggers for the bond market to rise again are that loose liquidity becomes the dominant factor and the coupon value meets investors' psychological expectations [10]. - Although trading enthusiasm is cooling, the bond market still has two supporting factors: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and short - term trading enthusiasm is hard to recover immediately [4][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: The "Reverse Mirror" of the Bond Market in Q4 2024 - The bond market adjustment last week was mainly due to the low "profit - making effect", causing trading funds to withdraw. The current situation is similar to the change in the bond market sentiment in Q4 last year. The reversal last year was due to the central bank's actions and the economic "small spring". Currently, the bond market is also facing the consensus of low profit - making effect [4][7]. - It is difficult for the bond market to rise again because of the end of the stock market rally. The bond market's rise depends on loose liquidity and the coupon value reaching investors' expectations. The former requires central bank signals, and the latter needs sufficient withdrawal of trading funds and investors' confidence in limited bond market adjustment [10]. - There are two supporting factors for the bond market: continued loose liquidity and rigid allocation demand. The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, but short - term trading is difficult, and medium - and short - term credit products still have allocation value [4][11][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: Increasing Supply of Local Government Bonds 2.1 Domestic August LPR to be Announced - This week, China will announce the August LPR, the US will announce the July new - home starts, and the eurozone will announce the August consumer confidence index and PMI. The Fed Chairman will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [14]. 2.2 This Week's Increase in Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance - This week, it is expected to issue 931.2 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds, a relatively high level compared to previous years. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue about 402 billion yuan, local government bonds 369.2 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds about 160 billion yuan [16]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Improved Risk Appetite Puts Pressure on the Bond Market 3.1 Continued Net Withdrawal in Reverse Repurchase Operations - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations continued to have a net withdrawal. The reverse repurchase scale reached 711.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. Tax - period funds saw a low - level increase in interest rates, with the repurchase volume rising and then falling, and the overnight and 7 - day DR and R rates changing compared to the previous week [22][23]. - The issuance of certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with a net financing of - 131.1 billion yuan. The issuance by different types of banks and the proportion of different maturities changed, and the certificate of deposit rates mostly increased [28][29]. 3.2 Improved Market Risk Appetite - Last week, the resurgence of anti - involution policies led to a rapid rise in commodity prices and a stronger equity market, improving market risk appetite and putting pressure on the bond market. Despite poor financial and economic data, the positive impact was limited, and the redemption pressure on bond funds increased the bond market adjustment. On August 15, the yields of various - maturity treasury bonds mostly increased, with the 10 - year China Development Bank bond rising the most [38]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most开工率 Declined - On the production side, most开工率 declined, such as blast furnace and semi - steel tire开工率, while the asphalt开工率 increased. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrowed [47]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales diverged. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area remained negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI decreased [47]. - On the price side, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices declined, coal prices were divided, and in the middle - stream, building material prices mostly decreased. The output of rebar increased, and the inventory rose rapidly. Vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].