去年10月以来，全球汽车和消费电子行业的重要供应商——安世半导体的控制权之争，一直是中国和荷 兰政府、企业间的关注焦点。期间历经中美经贸会谈、荷兰派员来华磋商、美国延期"50%股权穿透规 则"、荷兰暂停"冻结"行政令等关键节点，至今这一事件仍悬而未决，不仅导致安世半导体中荷业务"脱 钩"，也严重冲击了全球汽车供应链。 （文/观察者网 吕栋 编辑/张广凯） "安世半导体股权遭荷兰冻结"、"飞特半导体被英国强制出售"、"特朗普强制'涉中资公司'剥离美国芯片 资产"......交割数年后，一批优秀的中资海外半导体资产正在被欧美"围猎"。 "英国《国家安全与投资法》有一个回溯审查条款，特别有争议。虽然法案生效的日期晚，但它有追溯 机制，可以对法案生效之前的事情进行回溯审查，让合法交易可能变得不合法，相当于用了很霸道的条 款对项目做了审查。"一位关注飞特交易的人士独家对观察者网表示。 无论安世还是飞特等争端，海外政府强制干预的特征都非常明显，很大程度上对外传递出欧美投资环境 政治风险高企、法律确定性丧失的负面信号。此类事件若不被遏制，不仅将打击中国企业对欧美投资的 信心，更可能对中欧经贸关系的政治互信与合作基础造成结构 ...

格陵兰岛周边地缘政治局势近日持续升温。最新视频画面显示，法国、挪威军人15日已登上格陵兰岛。 美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特当日表示，欧洲派兵不会影响美国总统特朗普得到格陵兰岛的目标。 （文章来源：新华社） 法国总统马克龙15日表示，法国决定参与由丹麦在格陵兰岛发起的"北极耐力"军事演习，首批法国士兵 已抵达格陵兰岛，未来几天还会有更多法国士兵前往。14日，围绕格陵兰岛，美国与丹麦举行高层会晤 却未能弥合核心分歧。与此同时，丹麦宣布加强在格陵兰岛的军事存在，瑞典、德国、法国等多国也向 格陵兰岛派遣军事力量或参与联合军事行动。 ...

Group 1: Trade Performance - Hong Kong's exports showed strong performance with a year-on-year growth of 18.8% in November and a total increase of 14.3% for the first 11 months of the previous year [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries significantly increased, with exports to Malaysia rising over 70%, Vietnam by approximately 55%, and Thailand by around 40% [1] - Traditional markets like the Netherlands and the United States also saw an increase in export figures, indicating local SMEs are actively seeking new opportunities [1] Group 2: Tourism and Retail - The number of visitors to Hong Kong increased, particularly from Gulf countries, with a nearly 80% rise in visitors [1] - Preliminary estimates suggest that the total number of visitors reached 49.9 million, a year-on-year increase of over 10%, with mainland visitors rising by more than 12% [1] - Retail sales are expected to continue growing, especially in online consumption, with the government supporting businesses in their transformation [1] Group 3: Financial Market Innovations - The Hong Kong government aims to innovate in the financial market, focusing on helping tech companies go public and expanding the Hong Kong stock market [1] - There is a commitment to develop stablecoins with a focus on safety and security to prevent misuse by criminals [1] Group 4: Gold Storage and Clearing System - The Hong Kong government is actively expanding its gold storage capacity, targeting an increase to 2,000 tons over the next three years [2] - A central gold clearing system is being established, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange invited to participate, aiming for operational launch within the year [2]

14日，围绕格陵兰岛，美国与丹麦举行高层会晤却未能弥合核心分歧。与此同时，丹麦宣布加强在格陵 兰岛的军事存在，瑞典、德国、法国等多国也向格陵兰岛派遣军事力量或参与联合军事行动，格陵兰岛 周边地缘政治局势持续升温。 转自：扬子晚报 近期，美国持续发表觊觎丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛的言论。14日，美国与丹麦在华盛顿就格陵兰岛问题会 晤后，15日，多个欧洲国家已确认向格陵兰岛派遣军事人员。"今日俄罗斯"评论称，截至目前欧洲即将 部署到格陵兰岛的大军，总人数甚至凑不满美国一间学校教室。 法国——15人德国——13人挪威——2人瑞典——3人 英国——1人芬兰——2人荷兰——1人 格陵兰岛：美丹还没谈妥 欧洲开始增兵 路透社与益普索集团14日公布的联合民调结果显示，仅17%的美国民众支持接管格陵兰岛，47%表示反 对，约三分之二的美国人担心，相关行动可能损害北约并破坏美国与欧洲国家的关系。 欧洲多国加强军事存在 美丹存"根本性分歧" 丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森与格陵兰岛自治政府外交部长莫茨费尔特14日在华盛顿白宫同美国副总统万斯和 国务卿鲁比奥举行会晤。拉斯穆森在会晤后的联合记者会上强调，任何不尊重丹麦领土完整和格陵兰人 民自决权的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase long [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2] - Urea: Bullish with oscillations [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Different products show various trends due to their unique fundamentals. For example, crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions; while some products like PX/PTA and urea have certain upward expectations under specific supply - demand and cost conditions [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight, WTI dropped 4.52%, Brent dropped 4.15%, and SC rose 0.60%. As of January 2, US crude inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [9][10][12]. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, but there is still uncertainty. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of oil, with global oil inventories accelerating accumulation, and US oil and refined product inventories both increasing, leading to significant downward pressure on oil prices [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, and oil prices are entering a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there may be a rebound, but in the medium - and long - term, prices are under pressure. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 445] [13]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the PG main contract closed at 4244 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [16]. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost of crude oil, and in the long - term, crude oil is under pressure. The commodity volume is stable, and downstream chemical demand has resilience, providing some support. As of January 16, the inventory in refineries and ports decreased [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the oversupply of upstream crude oil, the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost of crude oil has increased uncertainty. Focus on the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [18]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 contract price increased, the basis was 0 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 35 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream are destocking. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. The shutdown ratio has risen to 14%, and the planned device maintenance is increasing this week, with expected production decline. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina has decreased to a low level in the same period. Considering the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and the chemical sector is in a bullish atmosphere, the market is expected to repair profits [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 117 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 43 yuan/ton [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is being destocked. In the short - term, it will follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. In January, the demand side is entering the off - season, the shutdown ratio is 19%, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PP [6450 - 6650] [26]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased slightly, the basis was - 218 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 124 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Main Logic**: Social inventory has reached a high level, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to weakening export demand in the long - term. In the short - term, there is an expectation of rush - exporting. The domestic operating rate has increased to 80%, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. The cost support is strengthening, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of V [4700 - 4900] [29]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract price rose, the basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee was 388.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee was 402.0 yuan/ton [30]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The supply side has high - intensity maintenance overall, and some devices have recovered this week. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in January and February. Pay attention to the seasonal decline in polyester production [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on the range of TA05 [4960 - 5080] [32]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 157 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan/ton [33]. - **Main Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The domestic operating load has increased, and the overseas devices have changed little. The downstream demand is relatively good but is expected to weaken seasonally. The port inventory has continued to increase. It has no upward momentum in the short - term and will fluctuate following the cost [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop losses on short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG05 [3730 - 3820] [35]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract reduced positions and rose, the port basis weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened [38]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic methanol device operating load remains at a high level in the same period, and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The import volume in January is expected to be about 750,000 tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has slightly improved, but the overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the downside space may be limited [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is a game between the weak reality and strong expectation. The geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the trading logic should return to the fundamentals. Focus on the range of MA05 [2210 - 2280] [40]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract price was stable, the basis was - 27 yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 yuan/ton [41][43]. - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall operating load has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand side is weakening, and the winter off - season storage has limited positive effects. However, the domestic and foreign arbitrage window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The positive impact of winter storage is limited, but the export window is still open, and there is an expectation of spring fertilizer use. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, but the rebound height is restricted by the increasing supply pressure. Focus on the range of UR05 [1770 - 1810] [44]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the NG main contract closed at 3.120 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 8.75% from the previous day [47]. - **Main Logic**: The supply side is relatively abundant, and the demand remains stable. The price is under pressure. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The US natural gas inventory has decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is under pressure. Focus on the range of NG [2.725 - 3.370] [48]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The BU main contract closed at 3167 yuan/ton on January 15, down 0.03%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [51]. - **Main Logic**: The export of Venezuelan crude oil is still uncertain, and the raw material is tight. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, and the oil price has fallen. The comprehensive profit is stable. The supply has increased, and the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply side has increased uncertainty. Pay attention to risks. Focus on the range of BU [3150 - 3250] [53]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 66 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 110 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of traders in Shahe is at the highest level in the same period, and the market fluctuates weakly. The supply - demand is weak, and the three - process profit has turned negative. The weak demand restricts the upward space [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [57]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract price decreased, the basis was - 43 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Main Logic**: The factory inventory has increased against the season, and the market has returned to weak oscillations. The demand support for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The long - term supply is loose, and the demand support is weak [61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [61].

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, continue to influence market dynamics, with gold prices showing resilience despite fluctuations in futures contracts [2][6]. Economic Data - As of January 10, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000 and the previous value of 208,000, indicating a robust labor market [2][6]. - The U.S. government is expected to announce the new Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, with the Kansas City Fed president stating there is currently no justification for interest rate cuts, as such actions could hinder inflation control and negatively impact the labor market [2][6]. Geopolitical Context - Despite NATO countries deploying military personnel to Greenland, the U.S. government maintains that this does not interfere with Trump's objectives regarding Greenland [2][6]. - The situation in Iran remains tense, with the White House closely monitoring developments and keeping all options open, including discussions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with multiple companies reaching historical highs, driven by rising prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zinc Industry Co. saw a peak increase of 8.28%, with a total market value of 8.45 billion [2] - China Uranium Industry rose by 7.32%, with a market capitalization of 155.6 billion [2] - Hunan Silver increased by 7.02%, with a market value of 31.8 billion [2] - Jiangxi Copper surged by 6.50%, reaching a market cap of 228.6 billion [2] - Xiamen Tungsten climbed by 5.95%, with a total market value of 87.3 billion [2] - Yunlu Co. and Western Mining both increased by over 4%, with market values of 13 billion and 76.5 billion respectively [2] Group 2: Metal Prices and Investor Sentiment - Gold, silver, copper, and tin have all reached historical highs, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Analysts suggest that concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela and Iran, are prompting investors to reassess asset allocations [1] - There is potential for further increases in gold and silver prices as the market reacts to changing geopolitical and trade dynamics [1]

Oil Market - Oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI February contract closing down by $2.83 to $59.19 per barrel, a drop of 4.56% [2][17] - Brent March contract closed down by $2.76 to $63.76 per barrel, a decrease of 4.15% [2][17] - The easing of tensions in Iran led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium, contributing to the largest single-day drop in oil prices since October [2][17] - The U.S. announced new sanctions against Iran, which are expected to have a lasting impact, although the likelihood of escalating conflict in the short term has decreased [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 1.33% to 2586 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) fell by 0.48% to 3087 yuan/ton [3][18] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory increased by 65,000 barrels (0.26%) to 25.473 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory rose by 114,200 barrels (12.83%) to 10.041 million barrels [3][18] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows some support due to recovering demand [3][18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) increased by 1.38% to 3168 yuan/ton [5][19] - Domestic asphalt shipments rose by 1.0% to 317,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate for modified asphalt increased by 0.1% to 6.8% [5][19] - The asphalt market is expected to experience a balance between weak demand and strong cost expectations, with prices likely to stabilize [5][19] Rubber - The main rubber contract (RU2605) fell by 165 yuan/ton to 15,995 yuan/ton, with similar declines in other rubber products [6][20] - Despite a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic expectations, the low production season is expected to limit price elasticity [6][20] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5048 yuan/ton, down 1.33%, while EG2605 closed at 3817 yuan/ton, down 1.29% [7][21] - The PX futures contract closed at 7130 yuan/ton, down 1.82%, with spot prices at $881/ton [7][21] - Polyester demand is expected to decline due to maintenance shutdowns and the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday [7][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2240 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to declining port inventory pressures, although geopolitical tensions may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene (PP) in East China ranged from 6430 to 6550 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][24] - HDPE film prices increased by 136 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton, while LDPE film prices rose by 457 yuan/ton to 9024 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover before the Chinese New Year [9][24] PVC - PVC prices showed mixed trends across regions, with prices for different grades ranging from 4630 to 4900 yuan/ton [10][25] - Overall supply remains high, but domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for prices [10][25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1801 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.28% [11][26] - Market prices in Shandong and Henan increased to 1760 yuan/ton, with a slight rise in daily production [11][26] - Demand is expected to be supported by winter storage and pre-spring planting needs, although high prices may suppress purchasing sentiment [11][26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 2.05% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable manufacturer quotes [12][27] - The industry’s operating rate increased by 2.43%, indicating a recovery in supply levels [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices experienced a slight decline, closing at 1086 yuan/ton, down 0.55% [13][28] - The market remains cautious with limited demand support, and inventory levels are decreasing [13][28]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.