行 业 及 产 业 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 25Q1 公募配置比例降至历史低位，重视宠食企业业 绩兑现 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.4.21 -2025.4.27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.4%。个股涨幅前五名：万辰集团（22.2%）、 中宠股份（15.5%）、乖宝宠物（15.3%）、瑞普生物（15.0%）、ST 佳沃（14.9%），跌幅前五名： 益客食品（-13.6%）、福成股份（-12.9%）、祖名股份（-10.9 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, gold prices rose and then fell with increased volatility. On Wednesday, the Shanghai gold price dropped by over 50 yuan/gram from its intraday high. The decline was due to Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs, which decreased the safe-haven demand for gold, and the large price increases since the beginning of the year and in April, leading to stronger profit-taking intentions among long positions [3][24]. - In the medium to long term, the main drivers for gold price increases are the safe-haven and asset allocation demands brought about by deglobalization and de-dollarization, and the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, the gold price's rise and fall have broken the strong pattern, with long positions more willing to sell, putting pressure on the gold price. Considering the approaching May Day holiday and the significant fluctuations during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the market may be cautious, and the gold price is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday [3][24]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content provided other than a reference to the dollar index linkage chart [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From April 17th to April 25th, COMEX gold decreased by 0.33%, COMEX silver increased by 1.46%, SHFE gold futures decreased by 0.26%, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.46%. The dollar index rose by 0.16%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.18%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.09, the S&P 500 rose by 4.59%, and US crude oil futures decreased by 1.99%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.77%, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.69%. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 6.02, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.91 [8] 2. The US Dollar and US Treasuries Hit Bottom and Rebounded, While Gold Rose and Then Fell - Since April, there has been a significant divergence between the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield, mainly due to the large-scale selling of US Treasuries in the financial market, which was caused by both the liquidity crisis and the pessimistic outlook on the US long-term economy [10]. - Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs improved the global macro environment, increased market risk appetite, led to the bottoming and rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury prices, and caused gold to rise and then fall. The relaxation of US tariff policies also led to a significant rebound in US stocks, reduced market panic, and caused the gold price to fall from its high [10][13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of April 22nd, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 12,811 contracts, short positions increased by 14,021 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 26,832 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - In the first quarter, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, reflecting the increased safe-haven demand in the context of deglobalization [17] - Since April, the US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen, mainly because the market's pessimistic outlook on the US economy has led to the selling of 10-year US Treasuries, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise continuously, while the 2-year US Treasury yield mainly depends on the Fed's interest rate [20] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short-term decline and long-term upward trend of the gold price, as well as the expected weak oscillation before the holiday [24]

Group 1 - The AI competition between China and the US is intensifying, with the NITRD "Artificial Intelligence Action Plan" highlighting the irreconcilable nature of this rivalry, leading to accelerated de-globalization [1] - The Emerging Asia ETF (SH520580) has seen a significant increase, rising nearly 2.5% at the opening on April 28, driven by a surge of capital inflow [1][3] - Global trade growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2024, the lowest in a decade, with the risks of single markets becoming unsustainable [3] Group 2 - Emerging Asian markets are becoming strategic high grounds for global capital due to their regional economic integration, industrial capabilities, and resilient internal growth [3][5] - The Emerging Asia ETF has increased by 12% since April 8, with an average daily trading volume of 600 million yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [3][4] - ASEAN is expected to attract a 23% increase in foreign investment in 2024, with over 60% of investments focused on electronics, automotive, and new energy sectors [5] Group 3 - The demographic advantages of India and Indonesia, with a median age of 28.4 years and a population of 1.4 billion in India and 280 million in Indonesia, are expected to drive growth in e-commerce, fintech, and healthcare sectors [6] - Asian central banks are actively intervening to stabilize markets against dollar fluctuations, with India reducing interest rates by 50 basis points by 2025 [6] - The Emerging Asia ETF is strategically focused on leading companies in the four emerging countries, benefiting from trends in digital India and manufacturing upgrades [6][7] Group 4 - The ETF's underlying index has a low correlation of around 0.3 with US and A-shares, which can significantly reduce volatility when included in investment portfolios [7] - The ETF offers opportunities for premium arbitrage through T+0 trading mechanisms and the newly launched margin trading options, indicating substantial potential for returns [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of trade protectionism in the U.S. under Trump's administration, questioning whether it can lead to past economic successes [1] - Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with specific exemptions for a few North American countries [5] - The U.S. will impose reciprocal tariffs on its top 10 trade deficit countries, with Thailand facing the highest at 36%, followed by China at 34% and Indonesia at 32% [7] Group 2 - The average U.S. tariff rate is projected to rise from 2.5% to 9.8%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, with an estimated annual revenue increase of $162 billion [9] - The total U.S. goods imports for 2024 are expected to be $3.7 trillion, with significant contributions from China (18.2%), the EU (14.6%), and Mexico (13.8%) [9] - Consumers are expected to face an annual cost increase of $218 billion, averaging $1,700 per household, particularly affecting electronics, auto parts, and textiles [9] Group 3 - To implement these tariffs, Trump declared a national emergency, granting him expanded powers to address the fiscal deficit and national debt [10] - The trade policies may adversely affect traditional U.S. allies and the American public, with significant impacts on Southeast Asian economies and high-end manufacturing in South Korea and Japan [10][11] - European automakers and other industries are also expected to suffer, with potential price increases and contract risks due to the new tariffs [11] Group 4 - The article highlights the collapse of the global trade cooperation system led by the U.S., with 127 out of 164 WTO member countries initiating temporary trade barriers [12] - It suggests that the current trade protectionism may lead to a new global order, moving away from the previous mercantilist approach [12] - The article concludes that true prosperity comes from open trade rather than high tariffs, emphasizing the need for countries to respond to these protectionist measures [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **commodities market**, highlighting the current trends and historical comparisons to the 1970s and 1930s [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Globalization and Economic Trends**: - Increasing trade frictions are exacerbating the trend of de-globalization, resembling the 1930s and 1970s, with the current situation more akin to the 1970s stagflation environment [1][2]. - The current asset price structure reflects a stagflation bull market, with significant increases in gold and copper prices, while the dollar and U.S. stock markets are declining [1][4]. 2. **Supply Shocks**: - Supply shocks are a natural outcome of the de-globalization trend, with resource-rich countries implementing export bans on commodities like nickel, bismuth, cobalt, and tin [1][5]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1978 weather extremes and Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties that caused supply shocks [5]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - Despite economic downturns, the apparent consumption of industrial metals like copper and aluminum has not significantly decreased, indicating structural demand stability [8]. - Strategic reserve policies, similar to the 1979 U.S. mineral reserve amendments, are driving commodity demand upward [8][9]. 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: - The current geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased inventory levels across industries, with countries like China, the U.S., and Europe boosting resource strategic reserves [9]. 5. **Dollar Supply and Inflation**: - The oversupply of dollars, driven by fiscal expansion, has historically led to rising resource prices, a trend that is currently being observed due to extensive fiscal stimulus measures [10][11]. - The current U.S. national debt exceeds 120% of GDP, significantly impacting interest expenses and indicating a more severe dollar crisis compared to the 1980s [14]. 6. **Comparison with Historical Context**: - The current situation is contrasted with the 1970s, where the latter part of that decade saw a commodity bull market followed by a prolonged downturn, while the present may mark the beginning of a long-term commodity bull market [13][16]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - It is advised to invest in dollar-denominated short-duration assets like gold and copper, as their pricing is expected to rise due to the weakening dollar [17]. - Long-duration assets priced in RMB are also recommended, anticipating an increase in the value of future cash flows due to China's rising power and currency appreciation [17]. Other Important Insights - The long-term impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to a 1-2% increase in U.S. CPI, affecting inflation dynamics beyond his term [16]. - The transition of certain metals from industrial to financial assets due to the depreciation of the dollar index has increased their market demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices and provides strategies for investors who experience price declines after purchasing gold, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a calm and informed approach to investment decisions [4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical events, such as Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve and interest rate policies, leading to significant price swings [4]. - The recent price drop of gold, which fell sharply after reaching a historical high of 830 yuan per gram, illustrates the sensitivity of gold prices to market sentiment and political statements [4]. Group 2: Strategies for Investors - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid hasty decisions to sell when prices drop, as short-term fluctuations do not necessarily indicate long-term trends [7]. - It is crucial for investors to assess their investment goals and risk tolerance, as those investing for the long term may not need to react to short-term price changes [8]. - The option to average down by purchasing more gold at lower prices is discussed, but investors should be cautious and ensure that the price drop is temporary before committing additional funds [9]. - Diversifying investments across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, can help mitigate risks associated with gold price declines [12]. - Staying informed about market dynamics, including global economic conditions and central bank policies, is essential for making informed investment decisions regarding gold [13]. Group 3: Specific Considerations for Gold Jewelry - For those who purchased gold jewelry, the article notes that the value is not solely based on the gold price, as it also includes craftsmanship and brand premiums, making it less sensitive to gold price fluctuations [16].

哈佛大学（资料图） 美国前总统奥巴马在社交媒体上发文，赞扬哈佛大学拒绝白宫要求其改变政策否则将失去联邦资金资助的决定。这是自特朗普就职典礼以来，奥巴马首次 在社交媒体上批评特朗普政府。美国总统特朗普冻结了超过20亿美元的联邦资金，原因是哈佛大学拒绝对其招聘、招生和教学实践做出调整，而特朗普政 府称这些调整是打击校园反犹太主义的关键。身为哈佛校友的奥巴马称这一冻结举措"违法且笨拙"。他呼吁其他机构效仿哈佛，不屈从于特朗普的要求。 据智通财经报道，针对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新政，民主党高层开始打出"组合拳"。继美国前财长珍妮特·耶伦批评特朗普关税政策、前国务卿安东尼· 布林肯抨击特朗普破坏美国盟友关系、前总统约瑟夫·拜登怒斥特朗普政府要摧毁美国社保系统后，另一名美国民主党前总统贝拉克·奥巴马也公开发声。 奥巴马的最新发声没有针对特朗普政府的关税政策和外交政策，而是在哈佛大学与特朗普政府的对峙中力挺哈佛大学。 据悉，近日哈佛大学校长艾伦·加伯的声明犹如一记惊雷——这所创办388年的常春藤盟校，正面临建校史上最严峻的政治施压。联邦政府要求提交2007年 以来所有录取学生数据、对全校5000余名教职员工展开剽窃审查、 ...

IMF全面调降全球经济增速预期 点击上图 ▲立即报名 ｜点评｜ 整体而言，六个经济大省的一季度GDP增速表现尚可。今年的经济形势面临较大不确定性，全年经济增长目标下，年初各地抢开工、 抓生产，工业投资对于经济增长的贡献显著。增速排名靠前的山东、浙江和江苏，工业增长都比较亮眼，通信电子、汽车制造这些产业都发挥 了明显的带动作用。 从绝对值上看，广东依然稳坐经济第一大省的位置。经济总量庞大，一定程度加大了广东保持高增长的难度。加上受到传统产业疲软以及房地 产市场调整的影响，近年广东的GDP增速明显放缓。从一季度表现来看，目前广东仍面临一定的产业转型压力，但在外贸方面还是表现出了较 强韧性。GDP增速并不能反映经济发展的全貌，各地追求经济增长，还需要关注民生改善、可持续性等多个维度。 美国或将面临学生贷款违约潮 4月23日消息，国际货币基金组织（IMF）近日发布《世界经济展望报告》，鉴于贸易政策的不确定性，报告中久违地再次给出多种情境假设。 在最基本的参考预测情境下，贸易政策的不确定性预计将持续到2025年和2026年。短期内，根据参考预测，全球经济增长预计将从2024年的 3.3%降至2025年的2.8%，然后在 ...