Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices, highlighting a successful short-selling strategy implemented at levels of $3445-3535 per ounce, followed by a significant drop in prices after reaching overbought conditions [1] - The article notes that the recent fluctuations in trade tensions have cooled due to agreements between Japan and the US, which has reduced safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Technical analysis indicates that on the daily chart, gold is trading near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with MACD showing a bullish crossover and RSI indicating overbought conditions [1] Group 2 - The outlook for gold trading suggests aggressive traders should consider buying near the support level of $3300 per ounce, while more cautious traders may wait for a confirmation at $3250 [3] - For short positions, aggressive traders are advised to sell near the resistance level of $3400, while conservative traders should look to sell at $3450 [3] - Overall, the article emphasizes that the movements in the dollar and changes in trade dynamics significantly impact market sentiment towards gold prices, with future attention on Federal Reserve policies and trade agreements [3]

在近期的金融市场上，美债收益率呈现短线攀升的走势，引发了投资者和经济学家的广泛关注。美债收益率是全球金融市场的重要风向标之一，它不仅反映 了美国国债的利息回报，也在一定程度上揭示了市场对美国经济未来走势的预期。美债收益率的变化，尤其是短期内的攀升，常常被视为市场对美联储货币 政策变化的反应，甚至可能意味着紧缩政策的提前布局。 美债收益率的上升，尤其是在短期债券市场上的表现，往往会直接影响到资本市场的风险偏好。长期以来，美联储一直采取宽松的货币政策，通过低利率和 量化宽松等手段刺激经济复苏。随着美国经济逐渐走出疫情阴影，通胀压力不断加大，市场对美联储是否会加快紧缩的节奏充满了讨论。近期美债收益率的 快速攀升，恰恰反映了市场对美联储货币政策转向的预期。 济数据来判断市场的反应。 美债收益率的短期攀升，确实反映了市场对紧缩预期的反应。虽然美联储的货币政策调整尚未完全明确，但市场已经提前对这一变化做出了反应。这种提前 反应既是市场对未来经济形势的预测，也是资本市场对于利率变化的敏感表现。在这种背景下，投资者在做出决策时，需要更加谨慎，密切关注美联储和全 球经济的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，迎接可能到来的市场波动。 当 ...

对于广大投资者来说，在美联储9月会议之前，如何解读美联储的言辞和政策动向，将是决定投资策略 的关键。许多投资者开始关注美联储官员的讲话，以捕捉可能的降息信号，但与此市场情绪的多变性也 让不少投资者感到困惑。 市场还在紧密关注全球经济形势对美联储决策的潜在影响。当前，全球经济的不确定性较大，不仅是美 国国内经济的变化，还有全球贸易摩擦、能源价格波动等因素，这些都可能影响美联储对未来经济形势 的评估，进而对其货币政策产生深远影响。综合来看，美联储是否在9月降息，已经不仅仅是一个单纯 的利率决策问题，而是反映全球经济趋势、市场预期以及美联储内部分歧的多重因素。 随着9月会议日益临近，市场对于美联储货币政策走向的分歧愈加明显。部分投资者认为，由于美国经 济已经出现放缓迹象，美联储降息的时机已经成熟。根据一些经济学家的分析，美国劳动力市场的强劲 表现和消费者信心的回升可能为降息提供了充足的空间。另一部分投资者则认为，美联储过早地降息可 能会导致金融市场过热，反而会激发通胀的复苏。美联储在过去几次的加息中已经取得了抑制通胀的成 效，因此，在通胀尚未完全控制的情况下，降息的风险可能过大。 在这种背景下，美联储的每一次发言、 ...

首先，非农数据对美股市场的影响是直接且迅速的。非农就业人数的增加通常被视为经济健康的信号，因为这表明有 更多的美国人找到了工作，消费能力增强，企业盈利预期提高。在这种情况下，投资者往往会增加对股市的投资，推 动股市上涨。相反，如果非农数据不及预期，市场可能会担心经济增长放缓，导致股市下跌。 中叶私募：非农数据影响美股，黄金白银市场波动 非农数据，即美国非农就业人数报告，是全球金融市场最为关注的经济指标之一。它不仅反映了美国就业市场的状 况，也是美联储制定货币政策的重要依据。每当非农数据公布时，美股市场、黄金和白银等贵金属市场都会受到显著 影响，波动加剧。本文将深入分析非农数据对这些市场的具体影响，并探讨投资者应如何调整策略以应对市场变化。 此外，非农数据还可能影响美联储的利率决策，进而对股市产生间接影响。对于黄金和白银市场而言，非农数据的影 响则更为复杂。一方面，强劲的非农数据可能会提高市场对美联储加息的预期，从而增加持有美元资产的吸引力，减 少对黄金和白银等非生息资产的需求，导致金银价格下跌。另一方面，如果非农数据不佳，可能会引发市场对经济前 景的担忧，增加避险需求，从而推高金银价格。此外，金银价格还受到美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where he expressed a strong desire for interest rate cuts, indicating a potential influence on future monetary policy decisions [1][2]. - Trump's visit comes just before a crucial two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50% [2]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, reported at 97.57 with a rise of 0.09%, indicating a potential recovery from previous declines [1]. Group 2 - Trump's comments during the visit suggest a continued push for lower borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth, which he believes will benefit American businesses and consumers [2]. - Despite his previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Trump's tone during this visit appeared more conciliatory, opting for public appeals rather than direct pressure [2]. - The technical analysis of the dollar index indicates a fragile recovery, with key resistance levels at 98.400 and support at 96.377, suggesting that the index's future movements will be closely watched [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].

Group 1 - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth is projected to be 3.8% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2026, reflecting a downward adjustment due to challenges posed by US tariff policies [1][2] - The region is characterized by high trade dependency, with ASEAN countries' total trade amounting to approximately 94% of their nominal GDP, and nearly 50% for the ASEAN+3 region [2] - Central banks in the ASEAN+3 region have shown flexibility in monetary policy, with over half having implemented easing measures in response to tariff risks, indicating potential for further support [4][6] Group 2 - Key risks for the ASEAN+3 region include rising US tariffs, changes in global financial conditions, and volatility in commodity prices, particularly oil [3] - The region's central banks are expected to maintain cautious approaches due to inflation targeting and the need to manage capital flows, which could limit their ability to ease policies further [6][7] - Malaysia's recent interest rate cuts are seen as preemptive measures to address external uncertainties, while Vietnam is focusing on attracting foreign direct investment and upgrading its industrial structure for long-term resilience [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The complexity,产业链, and price trends of commodities are analyzed, and the relationship between commodity prices and various economic factors is explored [6][10][14]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand balance, and economic cycles on oil prices is discussed, and future oil price trends are predicted [42][58]. - The supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of various commodities such as power coal, natural gas, aluminum, and copper are analyzed [98][106][120][166]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Classification and Characteristics - Commodities are divided into physical and non - physical commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, and financial rights [5]. - Commodities have complexity,产业链 characteristics, and price trends related to economic cycles, with factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and interest rates affecting prices [6][10]. Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - Gold has long - term value - preservation functions, and the price CAGR of some resources increased from 2020 - 2024 due to various factors [14]. - The price trends of commodities are related to GDP, inflation, and economic cycles, with industrial commodities showing higher cycle fluctuations than agricultural products [14][19]. - The price cycles of commodities have characteristics such as turning points, duration of prosperity and recession, and are affected by factors like supply shocks and technological progress [24]. Oil Price Analysis - The relationship between oil prices and factors such as the Fed's interest rate, U.S. Treasury yields, inventory, and geopolitics is analyzed [10][33][42]. - Future oil price trends are predicted based on supply - demand balance, geopolitical conflicts, and economic cycles, with oil prices expected to be relatively strong in 2024 and oscillate downward in 2025 [42]. Other Commodity Analysis - Power coal supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices expected to remain low due to sufficient inventory [98][102]. - Domestic natural gas demand is stable, with supply exceeding demand in some periods, and prices are expected to decline [106][109]. - Aluminum prices are related to PMI, GDP, and CPI, and the supply - demand situation, cost, and profit of the aluminum industry are analyzed [120][131][151]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as Fed's interest rate policy, supply - demand, and geopolitics, and are expected to be in the range of $9500 - 12000/ton [166][173].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its assessment of the economy as growing at a "solid pace," with a robust labor market and slightly elevated inflation [2][3]. Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve is expected to emphasize the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation [2]. - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to grow steadily, with a low unemployment rate and a slight increase in inflation [2]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 2.2% annualized growth rate for Q2 GDP, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts 2.4% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.7% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains in good condition, with employment growth slowing but the unemployment rate unchanged compared to 12 months ago [2][11]. - Employment growth is expected to slow from an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to about 50,000 jobs per month in 2026 [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation is described as "slightly high," with June's CPI report reflecting new price pressures from tariffs [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in overall and core PCE price indices, reaching 3.0% and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [5]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to peak at an annualized rate of 4.1% by the end of Q3 2025 before declining [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points at subsequent meetings [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to delay rate cuts but suggests that the magnitude of cuts may exceed market expectations [11]. Trade and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to pose risks to the Fed's dual mandate [4]. - Fed Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge the pressures from tariffs and emphasize the ongoing uncertainty in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly in the past two trading days, driven primarily by a decline in the US dollar index, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook of the United States [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - COMEX gold prices increased by 1.55% and 1.1%, reaching a high of $3451, while London gold rose by 1.43% and 0.95%, peaking at $3439 [1] - The current prices are close to historical highs, with COMEX gold just $58.9 away from its peak of $3509.9 and London gold $60 away from its peak of $3499 [1] - If the upward momentum continues, gold may reach new historical highs within the month [1] Group 2: Impact of US Monetary Policy - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that Powell may soon resign, which shocked the market and led to a drop in the dollar index [1] - If a new chairman is appointed, it is likely that monetary policy will align with Trump's preferences, potentially leading to significant interest rate cuts [2] - Trump has indicated that high interest rates negatively affect the housing market and has suggested a reduction of rates by 300 basis points or more, which could exacerbate inflation issues in the US [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - From a structural perspective, gold is in a long-term bullish trend, but there are signs of a potential top formation over the past three months [4] - The latest wave of price increase reached a peak of $3438, which is close to historical highs, indicating strong support at the previous wave's 0.618 retracement level [4] - Resistance levels are identified between $3499 and $3425, and failure to break through this range could lead to a price reversal [4]