印度：11月份黄金进口下降约60%。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯：就业放缓和通胀风险缓解支持12月降息，但下次会议难判断；波士顿联储主席 柯林斯称通胀前景变化使其支持12月的降息；美联储理事米兰：潜在通胀接近目标，美联储政策立场过 于紧缩。 据悉美国在柏林的代表团坚持要求乌克兰交出顿巴斯地区，乌克兰将获得类似北约第五条款的安全保 障。乌称谈判富有成效，但美乌在领土方面的立场不同。川普称现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成"和 平协议"。 日媒：日本央行预计将加息至0.75%，为30年来最高水平。 12月16日 资讯分享 周一，因美元走弱及美债收益率下滑，现货黄金盘中一度重回4350美元上方，但仍未能站稳此处，并回 吐超60美元，最终收涨0.12%，报4305.54美元/盎司；现货白银重回历史高位附近，最终收涨3.4%，报 64.07美元/盎司。 由于投资者评估美国与委内瑞拉紧张局势升级造成的干扰、供应过剩担忧以及俄罗斯与乌克兰潜在和平 协议的影响，油价继续下行。WTI原油最终收跌1.61%，报56.47美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.31%， 报60.63美元/桶。 美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，因担忧与总统过于亲近，哈塞特 ...

日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2025-12-15 1118.71 -0.01 2025-12-12 1118.72 -4.6 【要闻回顾】 上周美联储降息后释放的信号显示，其预计2026年仅会再降息一次，而市场当前定价则预期2026年至少 将降息两次。Chanana表示，若本周数据表现好坏参半或略逊于预期，"软着陆"的主流叙事虽可能得以 维持，但恐怕不足以推动风险资产全面大幅上涨。 摘要12月15日，COMEX黄金库存录得1118.71吨，较上一交易日减少0.01吨；COMEX黄金周一（12月 15日）收4332.50美元/盎司，上涨0.02%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4384.30美元/盎司，最低触及 4315.90美元/盎司。 12月15日，COMEX黄金库存录得1118.71吨，较上一交易日减少0.01吨；COMEX黄金周一（12月15 日）收4332.50美元/盎司，上涨0.02%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4384.30美元/盎司，最低触及 4315.90美元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 非农报告亦被卷入政治议题。美国总统特朗普此前曾将相对疲弱的就业数据归咎 ...

2025年12月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：外强内弱，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：短期回调 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：内盘领涨，料继续突破 | 13 | | 钯：ETF增持边际上扬，继续冲击前高 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 黄金：如期降息 白银：高位调整 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金260 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.270, while spot gold opened at $4305.12 per ounce and is currently trading at $4304.36 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index decrease by 0.12% to 98.276, and spot gold increased by 0.11% to $4304.30 per ounce [1] Precious Metals Performance - Other precious metals showed mixed performance: - Spot silver rose by 3.28% to $64.04 per ounce - Spot platinum increased by 2.26% to $1784.60 per ounce - Spot palladium surged by 5.73% to $1572.50 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of December 15, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1118.71 tons, a decrease of 0.01 tons from the previous trading day - COMEX silver inventory increased to 14138.42 tons, up by 37.34 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased to 1051.69 tons, down by 1.43 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings fell to 16060.60 tons, a decrease of 42.3 tons [2] Economic Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes unemployment rates and manufacturing PMI from various countries, which may impact market sentiment and precious metal prices [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Kevin Warsh is elected as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, his policy stance may present a unique combination of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [1][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Market Reactions - President Trump has indicated that Kevin Warsh is a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, which has led to a significant drop in Hassett's odds in prediction markets [1]. - As of the latest data, prediction markets suggest that Warsh has a higher probability of becoming the next Fed Chair compared to Hassett [1]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's report highlights that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [3]. - The feasibility of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [3]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Criticism of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer by training, has extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [4]. - He has been a strong critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet operations over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [5][6]. - Warsh has expressed concerns that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, suggesting that the Fed's actions may distort market signals [6][7]. Group 4: Warsh's Views on Forward Guidance and Monetary Policy - Warsh has criticized the Fed for over-relying on data and lacking forward guidance, stating that the forward guidance tool introduced during the financial crisis has little effect in normal times [9]. - He questions the Fed's understanding of monetary policy, suggesting misconceptions about the relationship between monetary policy and money supply [9][10]. Group 5: Implications for Future Fed Leadership - Deutsche Bank emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chair, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [13]. - The report expresses skepticism about significant policy changes following the leadership transition in June, especially given the divided committee dynamics [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stocks**: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - **Glass**: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - **Aluminum**: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Rubber**: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Urea**: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - **Methanol**: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - **Soda Ash**: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - **Eggs**: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - **Corn**: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - **Oils**: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

1、美股周一收盘，道指初步收跌0.09%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳指跌0.59%。博通跌5.5%，特斯拉涨 3.5%，Strategy跌超8%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.17%，百度跌近5%，阿里巴巴跌超3%。 2、美油主 力合约收跌132%，报56.68美元/桶；黄金冲高回落微涨，钯金单日大涨5.51%领涨贵金属，现货钯金日 内大涨6.00%报1583.16美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨3.25%报64.020美元/盎司，现货铂金涨2.48%报 1790.52美元/盎司，现货白银涨3.28%报63.99美元/盎司。 3、美联储威廉姆斯表示，劳动力市场降温和 通胀风险缓解，为美联储上周降息的决定提供了依据。威廉姆斯首次就上周的降息决定公开置评，称越 来越相信物价上涨将继续放缓，通胀暂时停留在美联储目标之上，但随着关税影响消化可能继续下降， 就业状况逐步降温支持降息决定。 4、美联储理事米兰表示，美联储政策立场过于紧缩，通胀前景良好 且劳动力市场出现预警信号，预计租金涨幅回落将缓解住房通胀，服务业通胀难面临上行压力，主张更 快放松政策接近中性立场。 5、美国总统特朗普表示，与欧洲领导人就俄乌冲突进行长时 ...

*三大股指齐跌，能源板块承压； *中长期美债收益率窄幅波动，2年期交投于3.50%附近； *纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超2%。 受人工智能板块核心个股持续承压影响，美股周一下挫，投资者等待本周晚些时候将公布一系列经济数 据，梳理美联储主席候选人相关报道及政策制定者的言论，试图从中捕捉利率前景的线索。截至收盘， 道指跌41.49点，跌幅0.09%，报48416.56点，纳指跌0.59%，报23057.41点，标普500指数跌0.16%，报 6816.51点。 【热门股表现】 明星科技股分化，特斯拉涨3.6%，此前该公司首席执行官马斯克表示，其自动驾驶出租车已开启无前 排安全员的测试。英伟达涨0.7%，Meta涨0.6%，谷歌跌0.4%，微软跌0.8%，苹果跌1.5%，亚马逊跌 1.6%，甲骨文跌2.7%，博通跌超5%。 赛富时旗下企业服务公司ServiceNow暴跌近12%，有报道称这家网络安全公司正就收购初创企业Armis 进行深入谈判。 扫地机器人制造商iRobot重挫72%并触发熔断。此前该公司于上周日晚间宣布，已启动美国《破产法》 第十一章破产重组程序，预计该程序将于明年2月前完成。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储威廉姆斯：降息意味着政策在进入2026年时处于良好位置。 ...