Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Cotton is expected to oscillate. In the short - and medium - term, the futures price will continue to oscillate before the tariff negotiations. In the long - term, the forward trend may diverge, depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs. PTA is likely to face pressure. As macro - level benefits are digested and the supply - demand situation weakens, it may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Ethylene glycol will trade in a range. Although there is support from supply - demand, the upward movement is restricted. Short - fiber has bottom support. Despite possible further decline in processing fees, the supply may decrease, limiting the downside. Sugar is in a weak oscillation. International and domestic factors are mixed, and the price will maintain a weak oscillation. Apples will oscillate. With the impact of seasonal fruits, the price will stay around 7500 [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Brief Views Cotton - Macro factors include concerns about the US Treasury bond maturity in June, domestic macro - level favorable policies, changes in Sino - US relations, the European Central Bank's interest - rate cut, and the net short position of CFTC funds. Fundamentally, the domestic commercial inventory is tight this year, which supports the 09 contract. The probability of a global bumper harvest in the new season is increasing. The consumption side is variable, depending on the US attitude towards tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut time. In the short - and medium - term, the market is waiting for the negotiation results, and the 07 contract's warehouse receipts may shift to the 09 contract. It is expected to oscillate between 13300 - 13625 next week, and attention should be paid to the price decline in July and August and the low point in the 12000 - 12500 range. In the long - term, the forward trend depends on the tariff attitude [1]. PTA - Due to geopolitical tensions and reduced Canadian oil production, international oil prices have risen. The PTA spot price has decreased. The domestic weak macro - level sentiment, weakening industrial supply - demand, and the weakening of the chemical sector have led to the weakening of the absolute price and the loosening of the spot basis. The PTA device's operating rate has increased, while the polyester production and sales rate has slightly decreased. With the digestion of macro - level benefits and the high spot basis, the PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - The international oil price decline has led to a decrease in the cost of ethylene glycol. The domestic production start - up has recovered, and the import arrival is low. Although the demand side has a high operating rate, the downstream polyester's cautious inventory replenishment restricts the upward movement of ethylene glycol [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. The short - fiber market may oscillate at a high level next week. However, due to poor downstream transmission, the processing fees may continue to decline. With some enterprises starting to reduce production, the downside space is limited [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern part of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new season, there is still an expectation of increased production. In addition, the growth prospects of sugar crops in major producing countries such as India have improved, putting pressure on the futures price. Domestically, factors are mixed. The fast sales speed this season, the peak summer consumption season, and the control of syrup and premixed powder imports support the price, but continuous rainfall in Guangxi, the opening of the import profit window, and future import pressure lead to a weak oscillation of the sugar price [5]. Apple - The apple market is stable. The new - season apple bagging work continues in the producing areas. The trading atmosphere of in - warehouse goods is average, and the shipment is slow. The sales in the consumer market are average, affected by seasonal fruits. With the low inventory in the main producing areas and the approach of the seasonal off - season, the price will oscillate around 7500 [5]. 2. Macro Key Information - On June 9 and 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by energy prices. The PPI was still at a low level, but there were positive changes in some areas [8]. 3. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval decreased, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the restart of some devices [11]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China decreased, and the weekly output also decreased, with both integrated and coal - based production showing declines [11]. Short - fiber - By the end of May, the monthly output of domestic polyester short - fiber increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. However, the cost was still stronger than the short - fiber price, and the processing fees continued to decline [11]. Sugar - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports decreased year - on - year. As of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports remained the same as last week, but the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Guangdong's sugar production and sales increased, and the industrial inventory was zero [11][13][14]. Apple - As of June 4, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas decreased, and the shipment speed slowed down compared with last week. The prices in Shaanxi and Shandong producing areas are provided [14]. 4. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, capacity utilization rates, inventory changes, and other data of cotton, PTA, ethylene glycol, sugar, and apples [21][24][27][31][39][41].

Supply and Demand - Construction activity shows a significant decline in cement usage, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonal high, but some sectors are declining, such as polyester chip production which has dropped to a low level[2][24] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and construction material demand below historical levels[3][31] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and aluminum are fluctuating, while gold prices have increased[4][39] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the South China comprehensive index nearing its September 2024 low[4][41] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 7% week-on-week decline in transaction area across 30 major cities, down 41% compared to 2023[5][59] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes are weakening, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -1%, -15%, and +6% respectively[5][61] Exports - High-frequency export data for the first week of June indicates a potential year-on-year decline of around -8%[6][67] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.55% and DR007 at 1.53% as of June 6[5][80] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 358.6 billion yuan in recent weeks[5][82]

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观利好供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13295-13800 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 报收 13650 元/吨，当周上涨 245 点，涨幅 1.83%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格受宏观情绪提振震荡 偏强运行，总体小幅上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，中美高层互动增强市场流动性 预期，缓解了贸易战引发的经济衰退担忧，对胶价构成短期支 撑。从基本面来看，供给方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入增 产期，供应上量预期增强，1-4 月国内橡胶进口增量明显，供给 端压力加大。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均小幅下降 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | | | | 107 | 1 2 112 | | | 有限 1-7 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF2509 | 13260 | 3265 | 3362 | 13255 | 13360 | 100 | 0.15% | 222549 | 230850 ...

Domestic Insights - In the first week of June, upstream production activity showed an overall decline, with significant weakening in the automotive supply chain and real estate sales and investment data[2] - The growth rate of consumption in categories like automotive and home appliances has slowed, likely due to the exhaustion of fiscal subsidy funds in some regions, which is expected to impact May's retail sales growth[2] - Despite resilient export data, May's export growth rate is expected to decline further, and overall economic data may also show a downward trend[2] - The economic growth rate from January to April significantly exceeded the 5% target, thus the current downward trend in economic data is unlikely to impact the annual growth target significantly, with low probability for new policies to be implemented in June and July[2] Overseas Insights - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the market expectation of 130,000, but the previous months' data was revised down by 95,000 jobs, maintaining the unemployment rate at a low of 4.2%[17] - The U.S. government has requested countries to submit their best trade negotiation proposals by June 4, with only Vietnam complying, while Japan, India, Europe, and Canada remain firm in their positions[3] - The Trump administration's tax cut policy faces obstacles in the Senate, with significant discussions expected in July[3]

Domestic Observations - On June 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call focusing on trade issues, signaling a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations[2] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was recorded at 49.5, with a month-on-month change of 0.5[6] - The average daily sales of domestic passenger cars reached 95,364 units, indicating a seasonal high[32] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, but decreased by 0.8% month-on-month[26] Production and Demand Metrics - The domestic electric furnace operating rate was 64.74%, down 0.64% from the previous week[9] - The wholesale price of pork as of June 6, 2025, was 20.46 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 yuan[38] - The total area of commercial housing transactions in 30 major cities for the week ending June 8 was 1.2475 million square meters, significantly below seasonal expectations[32] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was 48.5, below expectations, while the services PMI was 49.9, indicating economic contraction[48] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI for May 2025 was reported at 1.9%, with the European Central Bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points[48] - The U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May 2025, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month[58]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A remains negative, while Index B continues to decline, indicating weak economic growth momentum[1] - The standardized Index B decreased by 0.43, underperforming historical averages, suggesting a weak domestic economic growth rate[1] - Investment and real estate sectors show a decline in activity, while consumer sector performance remains stable[12] Price Trends - Food prices have slightly increased, while non-food prices have slightly decreased; May CPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of approximately -0.4%[2] - The PPI is projected to decline by about -0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year drop to -3.2%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, and the Shanghai Composite Index is high; predictions indicate a rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of June 13, 2025[1][18] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of June 13, 2025, is 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,094.40[19]

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 螺纹钢市场周报 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 1. 价格及价差：截至6月6日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价2975（+14），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3130（+20）。（单位： 元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量继续下调。218.46（-7.05）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：高温和雨水影响需求，表观需求下滑。本期表需229.03（-19.65），（同比-2.11）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库降幅缩窄，总库存四连降。螺纹钢总库存570.48（-10.57），（同比-205.12）。（单位： 万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率58.87%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加6.06个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）欧洲央行将三大关键利率下调25个基点，符合市场预期，这是欧洲央行202 ...