1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: In July, there are not many PTA plant overhauls, and the Sanfangxiang plant is planned to be put into operation. With the off - season of terminal demand, polyester sales have been weak, and inventory pressure has been accumulating. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive will be weak, and its price will follow cost fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA plant commissioning and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - MEG: Affected by the poor restart of some plants in Saudi Arabia, the local loading plan has been postponed recently. After the downward revision of the long - distance arrival forecast, the ethylene glycol import volume in August is expected to be around 600,000 tons. In the domestic sector, Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, Jianyuan has had a temporary shutdown, and Satellite Petrochemical may postpone its restart. After the supply - demand correction, ethylene glycol will turn to a dynamic balance from August to September, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly oscillating and firm in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the polyester load and the terminal market changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - PTA: The PTA futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly between traders. The spot basis strengthened. Mainstream suppliers sold goods. The July goods were negotiated and traded at around 09 + 17 - 30, with the price negotiation range at around 4,710 - 4,750. The mid - August goods were traded at around 09 + 15 - 20. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 24, neutral. The spot price is 4,728, the 09 - contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount, neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 days, neutral. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated within a range, and the basis weakened significantly. In the night session, ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the on - site negotiation was weak. In the morning, the ethylene glycol price rose firmly, and the high - level spot was traded at over 4,460 yuan/ton. The high - level far - month futures offers were concentrated. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures price fell slightly, and the basis weakened significantly. By the end of the session, the spot basis fell to around 09 - contract premium of 51 - 53 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the overseas ethylene glycol price was sorted at a high level. The recent cargoes were negotiated at around 515 - 520 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchasing. There was also a Taiwan tender cargo traded at around 523 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3,000 tons. The spot price is 4,433, the 09 - contract basis is 61, and the futures price is at a discount, neutral. The inventory in East China is 494,000 tons in total, with a month - on - month increase of 13,700 tons, bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bearish. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [8]. 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the futures price rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - MEG: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the futures price rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [11]. - MEG: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, and inventory [12]. 3.5. Price The report presents various price - related data, including bottle - chip spot prices, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][39]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis The report shows inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventories, with data sources from Wind [40][44]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - Upstream: It includes the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol, with data sources from Wind [51][53]. - Downstream: It includes the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms, with data sources from Wind [55][57]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - PTA: The report shows the PTA processing fee data, with data sources from Wind [59][61]. - MEG: It shows the profit data of different MEG production methods, including methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based production, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [62][64]. - Polyester Fibers: It shows the production profit data of polyester short - fibers and long - fibers (DTY, POY, FDY), with data sources from Wind [65][70].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are being realized, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is currently in a period of negative factors being realized. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider buying at low prices [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. The domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in June. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [2]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive supply pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases [2]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weak. The inventory reduction of the middle and upstream has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [2]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The daily changes of other prices were generally small, with the most significant being a 3 - unit increase in Jiangsu spot price and a 5 - unit decrease in South China spot price. The daily change of the盘面MTO profit was - 11 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 820. The most significant daily change was a 25 - unit decrease in the East China LD price. The import profit remained at - 177 on July 17, and the daily change of the main futures price was 1 [2]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 740. The most significant daily changes were a 20 - unit decrease in Shandong propylene price and a 10 - unit decrease in East China PP price. The export profit remained at 4, and the daily change of the main futures price was 7 [2]. PVC - **Price Data**: From July 11 to July 17, 2025, the prices of Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda remained unchanged. There were no significant daily changes in other prices, and all daily changes were 0 [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No related content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PG market is mainly oscillating. The basis weakened slightly to 340 (-9), and the monthly spread also weakened slightly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4496. The import cost increased, and the external market price rose slightly. The domestic - foreign price difference weakened, and the US - Asia arbitrage window opened. This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct) but is expected to increase in the future. Overall, prices in Shandong and East China may rise due to chemical demand support, while the focus in South China is expected to move down due to weak combustion demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc. were recorded, and there were corresponding daily changes. For example, the daily change of South China LPG was -50, and the daily change of Shandong LPG was 0. The 08 - 09 monthly spread was 93 at one point and then 86 (-11), and the 08 - 10 monthly spread was -332 (-38) [1] Market Conditions - FEI and CP followed the decline of crude oil, the CP discount was basically flat, PP oscillated, and the production profit of FEI - and CP - based PP improved. The CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Fundamental Situation - This week, the arrivals increased, chemical demand decreased, combustion demand was average, and port inventory increased by 6.92%. Factory inventories were basically flat with regional differentiation. East China accumulated inventory due to typhoon weather and weak combustion terminal demand, while South China had weak supply - demand and factory destocking. The PDH operating rate decreased to 60.87% (-3.12pct), but it is expected to increase in the future as some enterprises are expected to resume or increase production. Gasoline terminal demand was poor, MTBE was weakly sorted, and combustion demand was weak. The number of registered warehouse receipts was 8304 (-10) [1]

Core Insights - LME copper futures rose by $32, closing at $9,666 per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures remained unchanged at $2,578 per ton [1] - LME zinc futures increased by $26, reaching $2,737 per ton [1] - LME lead futures fell by $4, settling at $1,973 per ton [1] - LME nickel futures gained $70, closing at $15,096 per ton [1] - LME tin futures surged by $215, ending at $33,014 per ton [1] - LME cobalt futures remained stable at $33,335 per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon continues to rise, increasing nearly 6% in a single day, currently priced at 44,920 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate has increased by over 4.00% in a single day, currently priced at 68,980 yuan per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to expect a volatile consolidation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,070, and the basis was +40, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 16, the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,750 tons to 121,350 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 977 tons to 12,161 tons, which is a negative factor [2]. 4. Market Quotes 4.1 Futures Exchange Quotes on July 16 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2508 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,045, a decrease of 60; the contract 2509 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,030, a decrease of 75 [3]. 4.2 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on July 16 - The price of zinc concentrate was 16,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc ingot was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,949 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,289 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of zinc powder was 26,790 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc oxide was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4.3 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets increased from 63,900 tons on July 3 to 74,200 tons on July 14. Compared with July 7, it increased by 4,200 tons; compared with July 10, it increased by 1,500 tons [5]. 4.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on July 16 - The total zinc warrants in Shanghai were 25 tons (unchanged); in Guangdong, 3,607 tons (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 0 tons (unchanged); in Zhejiang, 0 tons (unchanged); in Tianjin, 8,529 tons (an increase of 977 tons), with a total of 12,161 tons (an increase of 977 tons) [6]. 4.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 97,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 23,975 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 19.76% [8]. 4.6 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on July 16 - Zinc concentrate prices in most regions were around 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 80 yuan/ton [9]. 4.7 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, such as Hunan Zhizhixing with a price of 22,410 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry with 25,350 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 4.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 4.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 16 - The processing fees for domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate were mainly in the range of 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 50 - 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 4.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on July 16 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2509 contract, the top three were Guotai Junan (22,277 lots, an increase of 658), CITIC Futures (18,260 lots, a decrease of 1,345), and Huatai Futures (13,749 lots, a decrease of 287). In the long - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (20,394 lots, a decrease of 831), Qiankun Futures (7,436 lots, a decrease of 889), and Guotai Junan (7,280 lots, a decrease of 376). In the short - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,003 lots, an increase of 291), Guotai Junan (9,558 lots, an increase of 1,347), and Zhongtai Futures (4,612 lots, an increase of 110) [18].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13865 with a 45-point increase, CF05 at 13835 with a 50-point increase, CF09 at 13990 with a 140-point increase, CY01 at 20135 with a 100-point increase, CY05 at 20060 with a 45-point increase, and CY09 at 20180 with a 130-point increase [3]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 15272 yuan/ton with a 23-yuan decrease, Cot A was 78.75 cents/pound with a 0.70-cent increase, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3]. - Price differences: Cotton and棉纱 had various inter - period and cross - variety price differences, such as the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread being 30 with a 5 - point decrease [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - US cotton: As of the week of July 12, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 82.81°F, 0.12°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 1.22 inches, 0.16 inches higher than the same period last year [6]. - Indian cotton: As of July 11, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 9.283 million hectares, 239,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. As of the week of July 13, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 133,000 tons, a 316% year - on - year increase [6][7]. Trading Logic - US cotton: It was slightly weak in the short term but had potential positive factors due to possible trade negotiations and the weather trading peak [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton: The upward space might be relatively limited considering factors such as downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. - Options: Sell put options [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The cotton fabric market was cold, with manufacturers having small - order shipments, and weavers reducing production and taking holidays. Spinning mills' cash - flow losses were not significantly improved, and downstream procurement was mainly on a need - to - buy basis [11][13]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For example, on July 16, 2025, the CF509C14000.CZC option had a closing price of 188 with a 9.2% decrease [14]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 4.4970, and the implied volatilities of some options were given [14]. - Option strategy: Sell put options, and the market's bearish sentiment was alleviated [15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Natural rubber lacks a persistent upward driving force. It may maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short - term but remains weak in the long - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Supply - related Information** - In Hainan, China, the recent weather has improved, and rubber tapping work is proceeding normally. However, the daily rubber collection volume is about [a specific amount not given in the text] tons, which is lower than the same period last year [9][12] - Recently, rainfall interference in the upstream production areas has decreased, resulting in an increase in output [12] - **Market Conditions** - The recent macro - sentiment is positive. But demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is significant, and there is some speculation in the near - month contracts. After the futures market has been at a premium to the spot market for a certain period, the willingness to register warehouse receipts may increase. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see for near - month contracts and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, and choose to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 66,140 yuan/ton and closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 764,028 lots, and the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 622,936 lots, a decrease of 12,117 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 303,785 lots from the previous day to 926,362 lots, with an overall speculation degree of 1.49. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,203 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 66,000 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 63,800 yuan/ton, also a 250 - yuan increase. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of current market prices due to factors such as long - term contract coverage and high customer - supplied ratios, and procurement demand remains weak. Although upstream lithium salt enterprises have made tentative price adjustments, transactions are mainly concentrated among traders [1]. Strategy - Wait and see for near - month contracts in the short term and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2][4].