Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, and over 3,900 stocks rising across the market, with a total trading volume of 1.15 trillion yuan [1] - New investors express optimism about the market, particularly in new consumption and new pharmaceuticals, suggesting that a larger market rally may be forthcoming [3] Sector Performance - Technology stocks, particularly those related to Nvidia, saw early gains, followed by a surge in brokerage stocks, with Everbright Securities leading the charge, rising over 9% [3][4] - Solid-state battery stocks also performed well, with KOHEN Co. hitting the daily limit up [3] Brokerage Sector Insights - Recent signals indicate a potential for refinancing in the brokerage sector, with announcements from Zhongtai Securities and Nanjing Securities regarding significant capital increases [4] - The upcoming "2025 Lujiazui Forum" is expected to introduce major financial policies, further boosting market sentiment [4] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with low institutional holdings, which may lead to increased interest [4] Consumer Sector Trends - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with beauty and beer stocks leading the gains, and Meituan's data indicating a significant increase in sales for craft beer [7] - The beverage industry in China is projected to experience an investment boom, with an expected annual growth rate of nearly 18% from 2023 to 2028, potentially reaching a market size of 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [7] Sports and Entertainment Sector - The "Su Chao" concept continues to gain traction, driven by both event economics and policy support, with a notable increase in tourism consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival [8] - The Jiangsu provincial government has outlined plans to enhance football infrastructure and promote sports, which may further stimulate related sectors [8] Future Consumption Trends - There is a growing focus on service-oriented consumption, including sports, film, tourism, and education, which may represent future growth areas [11] - Recent positive factors for the market include favorable views from foreign investment banks and potential tariff reductions, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the Chinese equity market [12]

2025.06. 04 微信编辑 | 雨林 作者 | 第一财 经 邹婷 赵怡闻 武敬栋 推荐阅读 今年以来，泡泡玛特在海内外市场异常爆火，多款热门IP商品持续售罄，让不少消费者失望而 归，但这丝毫不影响公司业绩爆发。 数据显示，泡泡玛特最新财年净利润达3 4亿元，同比增长超1 8 5%，这也直接让其股价一路飞 升，在港股市场上演"超1 0倍神话"。 与此同时，截至5月2 8日，押注新消费的权益类基金今年以来最高回报率也超过5 0%。但尽管 如此，业界仍然对泡泡玛特是否能基业长青保持警惕。挖掘下一个泡泡玛特，成为诸多消费行 业基金经理当前的头等大事。 马斯克，发文告别 ...

今年的消费牛股，港股是主阵地。以往A股的大消费宠儿，诸如白酒、食品饮料，今年还没动静。 作为全球资金、南下资金的"交汇点"，港股风来的时候，势能很强。 图：消费相关指数今年以来回报 | 指数名称 | 指数类型 | 回报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 800消费 | 股票指数 | -0.27% | | 港股通消费 | 股票指数 | 20.36% | | 沪深300 | TERRALLARS FERENCE SERVICE STATUS COLLECT 股票指数 | -2.41% | 来自：wind，截至2025年5月31日 港股消费股和A股消费股，代表了两种风格。 港股的消费股，更fancy新潮。像是老铺黄金的新中式审美，泡泡玛特的潮玩，都算是审美力的一种新商业价值诠释。两只大牛股年初至今（截至5月31 日），涨幅分别为266.75%，146.86%。 A股的消费股，则比较"古典"。其中酒的市值体量占比较大，今年表现平平。反而市值比较小的软饮料，宠物经济，有些结构性行情。 两个市场在"新消费"上，似乎达成了某种默契，但港股显然更热闹。 作为国际资金的"前哨站"，港股市场对全球资金的流动更为敏感 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,117.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Group 2: Beer Sector Performance - The beer sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The rise in the beer sector is attributed to the ongoing popularity of "new consumption" trends and the "micro-drunk economy," where younger consumers prefer low-alcohol beverages for relaxed social experiences [3] - Qingdao Beer has been recommended by 15 brokerage firms in the last three months, indicating strong investment value, with reasons including resource optimization and market expansion [3] Group 3: Tobacco Sector Activity - The tobacco sector showed active performance, with companies like Jinjia Co. and Huabao Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Recent regulatory updates from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration aim to enhance the electronic cigarette regulatory framework, impacting production and market standards [4] - The stock of Hong Kong Tobacco surged over 7%, reaching a historical high, further fueling market enthusiasm for tobacco-related concepts [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Positive factors for the market include favorable views from foreign investment banks and potential tariff benefits, which may boost market sentiment [5] - Analysts suggest that the market adjustment space is limited due to supportive policies, with a focus on structural opportunities [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are expected to remain key investment themes, with high-growth industries such as AI infrastructure and robotics being highlighted [6]

A股4日强势上扬，创业板指涨超1%；港股小幅走高，恒生指数收盘涨0.6%，恒生科技指数涨0.57%。 具体来看，三大股指盘中震荡拉升，深证成指、创业板指较为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.42%报3376.2点，深证成指涨0.87%报10144.58点，创业板指涨1.11%报 2024.93点，北证50指数涨约1%；沪深北三市合计成交11776亿元。 场内近4000股飘红，旅游、食品饮料等大消费股集体拉升，有友食品连续两日涨停，香飘飘、西麦食品、长白山等均涨停；黄金概念活跃，萃华珠宝、潮宏基、菜 百股份等连续两日涨停；稀土板块崛起，科恒股份20%涨停，广晟有色连续两日涨停；烟草概念上扬，华宝股份、金时科技、劲嘉股份等涨停；固态电池概念活 跃，诺德股份、龙蟠科技、传艺科技等均涨停；算力概念亦有所表现，汇金股份、奥雅股份等涨停。 港股方面，新消费股表现亮眼，泡泡玛特、蜜雪集团、老铺黄金、毛戈平等均创出新高。此外，烟草股集体大涨，华宝国际、思摩尔国际涨约13%，中烟香港创出 新高。 大消费集体拉升 食品饮料板块盘中强势拉升，截至收盘，品渥食品涨近13%，香飘飘、有友食品、西麦食品等涨停；盐津铺子涨近6%，盘中一度涨超8% ...

编辑：林森 着眼于产业趋势，同时结合宏观经济、外部关税的可能演进，淡水泉投资继续聚焦在以下三个方面。其 一，高端制造领域具有全球化运营实力的头部公司，这类公司在面对外部关税挑战时，有能力将产能外 移，从中国制造走向全球制造，加大对非美市场的拓展，降低对美国市场的依赖，一定程度上也具备相 对的关税免疫能力。其二，看好AI创新升级带来的智能终端、消费电子、数据中心等产业链公司的投 资机会，这些企业作为产业链上的"卖水人"难以被替代，同时大客户的新产品也有望带动企业盈利的增 长。此外，布局了以半导体设备、国产算力为代表的自主可控领域，这类机会更加能够平衡关税的影 响。最后，在内需方向，一些具备业绩快速增长潜力的新消费头部公司也是关注方向。（资讯） 近期，A股市场在中美达成阶段性共识开启关税谈判后，情绪有所回升，市场普遍反弹。伴随着情绪修 复，A股市场回补了4月"对等关税"冲击带来的下跌缺口，不过市场整体风险偏好仍相对较低。头部私 募机构淡水泉投资发布的最新月报表示，越来越多近期赴港上市的"A+H"优质龙头走到了市场的聚光灯 前。港股IPO的火爆，AH溢价的趋势性收敛，这既得益于赚钱效应和增量资金的推动，也反映出优秀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the shift in consumer behavior towards "new consumption" trends, such as beauty products, IP toys, and pet economy, contrasting with traditional consumption sectors like liquor and dining, which are under pressure. The "new consumption" sector has seen significant growth, with multiple stocks experiencing substantial increases in value in 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "new consumption" sector is characterized by a transition from "survival-type" to "self-pleasing" consumption, indicating that consumers are increasingly seeking emotional value and self-expression rather than just meeting basic needs [3][9]. - In 2024, the scale of self-pleasing consumption in China is expected to exceed 4.5 trillion, accounting for 32% of total household consumption, with an 18% year-on-year growth [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Support - The Chinese government has introduced policies to stimulate consumption, including a 1.5 trillion yuan special bond fund to support the replacement of old consumer goods, which has driven sales in sectors like automobiles and home appliances [4]. - The retail sector is facing challenges, with traditional supermarkets experiencing an 11.4% decline in 2024, while companies like Sam's Club and Fat Donglai are thriving, with significant growth in sales [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in New Consumption - The article identifies five key segments within the "new consumption" landscape: emotional value, national trend consumption, industrial innovation, health consumption, and technology empowerment [10][12]. - Specific companies within these segments have shown remarkable stock performance, with some experiencing over 300% growth since the beginning of 2024 [13]. Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Japan - The article draws parallels between the evolution of consumption in China and Japan, noting that as Japan's GDP per capita rose, domestic consumption patterns shifted towards self-pleasing and emotional value, a trend that China is currently mirroring [7][9].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's consumer sector remains strong, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index rising over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) increased by 1.25%, with trading volume approaching 45 million [1] - The manufacturing PMI showed overall improvement in May, with a rebound in export orders, indicating resilience in China's economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Construction Investment Securities noted that the "two new" policies and consumer incentive policies have positively impacted downstream consumption growth [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the scarcity of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong is expected to benefit from the AI industry transformation [1] - The Hong Kong Technology Index ETF (513180) rose nearly 1%, reflecting strong growth in capital expenditure and cloud business revenue among leading internet companies [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong technology sector's valuation remains relatively low, with strong earnings growth expected by 2025 [1] - The anticipated performance improvement in the Hong Kong technology sector due to AI industry catalysts suggests potential for valuation uplift [1] - The focus on "new quality domestic demand growth" emphasizes the importance of service consumption and new consumption trends [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has gained significant popularity overseas, evidenced by a recent incident in the UK where a large-scale brawl occurred over the limited edition Labubu toy, leading to the company's decision to halt sales in the UK [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Pop Mart's stock price surged, reaching a historical high of 235.6 HKD on June 3, with a market capitalization exceeding 310 billion HKD, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 160% [3][4]. - Despite the stock's impressive performance, many retail investors express skepticism, believing it to be another bubble, while institutional investors have largely missed out on this capital feast [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Challenges - Institutional investors have struggled to adapt to the changing consumer landscape, often entering and exiting positions at inopportune times, leading to significant losses [6][7]. - The traditional investment mindset, focused on established metrics like brand strength and cash flow, has hindered many fund managers from recognizing the potential of Pop Mart's innovative business model [8][12]. Group 3: New Consumer Trends and Future Outlook - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its unique IP creation model, which has allowed it to generate significant revenue from overseas markets, with international sales projected to reach 30% by mid-2024 [9][10]. - The company has effectively tapped into the emotional and identity-driven consumption trends of the Z generation, which is expected to control 27% of global disposable income by 2025 [15][16]. - The shift in consumer preferences towards emotional fulfillment and collectible items indicates a broader transformation in the consumption landscape, challenging traditional investment paradigms [17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The concentrated ownership structure of Pop Mart, with the top 25 shareholders holding over 85% of shares, raises concerns about stock price volatility and market sensitivity to liquidity [16]. - Despite potential risks, the transition in consumption investment logic is seen as inevitable, with other brands also demonstrating the power of new consumer trends [17].

| | 排名 基金经理 经理核心策略 | | 从业年限 | 信号： 三 别 | 近1年平 रु सक | 公司简称 | 公司规模 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 则的产品数 | 均收益 均收益 | | | | 1 | 林园 | 股票 | 37 | б | | 林园投资 | 100亿以上 | | 2 | 但斌 | 股票 | 33 | 62 | | 东方港湾 | 100亿以上 | | 3 | 李悟 | 多资产 | 19 | | 应监管理求 | 半夏投资 | 50-100亿 | | | | | | | 查看收益 | | | | 4 | 李到飞 | 多资产 | 14 | 3 | 烦请扫码 | 国源信达 | 20-50亿 | | 5 | 梁文涛 | 多资产 | 24 | 6 | | 泓湖私募 | 100亿以上 | | 6 | 물은 25 | 股票 | 18 | 9 | | 进化论资 | 100亿以上 | | 7 | 路文證 | 多资产 | 15 | | | 路远私募 | 5-10亿 | | 8 | 邓晓峰 | 服論 | 24 | ...